Presidential Primary Brief: 168 days until Election Day

Primary Brief_9 May 2016

168 days until Election Day

Convention Dates: Republican July 18-21 2016, Democratic July 25-28 2016

Weekly Headlines:

Presidential Primary Brief_Polls_23 May 2016

Press Clips:

Model That Correctly Predicted Every Election Since 1980 Gives 2016 Verdict (Daily Caller 5/22/16)

One of the world’s most well-known financial institutions which correctly predicted every presidential election since 1980 is predicting a win for Hillary Clinton. Moody’s Analytics, a subsidiary of credit ratings agency Moody’s, believes President Obama’s strong approval ratings will give the Democratic nominee a significant advantage come November.

Aviation security, presidential election featured on Sunday talk shows (USA Today 5/21/16)

 Aviation safety and terrorism will share the spotlight with the 2016 presidential election on the five major Sunday talk shows this week. The cause of the crash of an EgyptAir plane into the Mediterranean Sea remains unknown, but it has renewed questions about how to protect airline passengers from tragic accidents and intentional acts of terror.

Members of Congress with responsibility for homeland security, foreign affairs and intelligence appear on four shows, as well as Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson, who will be on Fox News Sunday.

Polls Predict a Tightening Presidential Race (National Review 5/17/16)

The results from our latest national survey completed on May 16 shows that the de facto end of the Republican presidential nomination and the continuation of Hillary Clinton’s pyrrhic victory over Bernie Sanders are signaling some important cross currents within national voter opinion.

Supreme Court Punts on Little Sisters’ Obamacare Case Until After 2016 Election (Breitbart 5/16/16)

The Court expresses no view on the merits of the cases.” With that, the Supreme Court in Zubik v. Burwell (the official name for the various “Little Sisters of the Poor” cases) punted the latest Supreme Court fight over Obamacare to 2017 or beyond — but did so in a fashion that conservatives can be happy about for now, teeing up yet another issue that will be decided one way or the other by 2016’s presidential election.

Presidential Elections And The Trump Effect On The U.S. Dollar (Forbes 5/18/16)

 Politics and economics make for intimate bedfellows. The effects of the former on the latter are significant, particularly when the prize is the Oval Office, as in the case of the

U.S. Presidential Elections in November this year. While Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are competing for the Democratic Party leadership nomination, Donald Trump is the Republican Party’s presumptive presidential nominee. The Democratic primary race and the Presidential Elections will have an impact on currency market sentiment, as will the result of the election.

Here’s How Many Primaries Are Left (Fortune 5/18/16)

 Admit it — even the most hardcore political junkies, the ones who have watched every debate and stayed up late on every primary night, are ready for primary season to be over. Soon, it will be. For Democrats, the following states still have to vote: Washington (non-binding primary) on May 24. Virgin Islands (12 delegates) on June 4. Puerto Rico (67 delegates) on June 5. California (548 delegates), Montana (27 delegates), New Jersey (142 delegates), New Mexico (43 delegates), North Dakota (23 delegates), and South Dakota (25 delegates) on June 7. And, finally, Washington, DC (46 delegates) on June 14. On the GOP side, here’s what is left: Washington (44 delegates) on May 24.

California (172 delegates), Montana (27 delegates), New Jersey (51 delegates), New Mexico (24 delegates), and South Dakota (29 delegates) on June 7. That’s it.

When It Comes To Economic Election Prediction Models, It’s A Mixed Bag (NPR 5/17/16)

Most election prediction models that try to forecast who’s going to win the presidency take into account some measure of how the economy is doing. That’s because generally if it’s going strong in the six months or so before the election, history suggests the party currently in the White House will win. If the economy stinks, the party not in the White House takes over. But, what if the economy is just so-so like it is now?

538 founder Nate Silver gives Donald Trump 25 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton (Washington Times 5/15/16

Political prognosticator Nate Silver said Sunday that he gives Republican Donald Trump a 25 percent chance of winning the 2016 presidential election, while noting that he has been wrong before. Mr. Silver admitted that he initially gave Mr. Trump only a 5 percent chance of capturing the Republican nomination, saying he would peak early and “flame out” like 2012 presidential contender Herman Cain. “This is one of the crazier things we’ve seen in politics for a long time. I think it was fair for us to be skeptical early on about the odds this could occur,” Mr. Silver told CNN’s “Reliable Sources.”

Stocks, not polls, could predict election winner (USA Today 5/22/16)

 Ignore the pundits and polls. If you want to know which candidate will win the presidential election, the stock market will let you know. That’s right, it turns out that the Standard & Poor’s 500 index has “correctly predicted” 19 of the past 22 elections, according to data compiled by Daniel Clifton, an analyst at Strategas Research Partners who specializes in how politics impacts financial markets. So who’s got a better shot at the White House in November? Billionaire Donald Trump? Or former first lady and secretary of State Hillary Clinton?

US election: Donald Trump open to talks with North Korea (BBC News 5/18/16)

Presumptive US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump says he is willing to meet North Korea’s leader to discuss its nuclear programme. “I would speak to him, I would have no problem speaking to him,” the businessman said of Kim Jong-un. Such a meeting would mark a significant change of US policy towards the politically isolated regime.

Conservatives in secretive group ‘slow walk’ Trump support (CNN Politics 5/17/16)

 Donald Trump has inflicted a dark night of the soul on many conservatives. As the GOP establishment slowly coalesces around the presumptive nominee, the foot soldiers of the movement face an agonizing dilemma: whether to line up behind a candidate many members view as a ideological heretic or to stay true to their principles and reject him — even though doing so could help Hillary Clinton claim the White House.

Will 2016 Prove a Turning Point in American Politics? (The Atlantic 5/18/16) 

Bob Shrum is one of America’s most veteran political campaigners. His work for Democrats has extended over half a century, culminating in his central role in John Kerry’s campaign in 2004. He is the author of a sparkling memoir, No Excuses: Concessions of a Serial Campaigner. Whenever I want to understand what’s most likely to happen in American politics, Shrum’s is one of the voices I listen to most carefully— and not just because of the accident of rhyming last names that makes us sound like a Dickensian law firm. He and I exchanged emails on the afternoon of May 16.


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