Presidential Primary Brief: 154 days until Election Day

Primary Brief_9 May 2016

154 days until Election Day

Convention Dates: Republican July 18-21 2016, Democratic July 25-28 2016

Weekly Headlines:

Primary Brief 2016_6 June polls

Press Clips:

Frank Luntz: The 2016 presidential election will be determined by the ‘none of the above’ voters (LA Times 6/1/16)

If prior elections were decided by soccer moms, security moms, NASCAR dads, or even “the economy, stupid,” the 2016 presidential election will be determined by the NAs — the none of the above voters who have so far refused to support either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. For them, the election isn’t about mere dissatisfaction. It’s about rejection. Comprising about 11% of the electorate in the critical swing states, the NAs are unwilling or unable to distinguish between our two wildly different candidates — arguably the most different of any presumptive nominees in modern history. These voters are loud, aggressive, and they give me a headache.

San Jose, California, police under fire after Trump rally (WTOP 6/3/16)

This Silicon Valley city and its police department are facing mounting complaints of a tepid and tardy law enforcement response to attacks of Donald Trump supporters after a political rally. Videos circulating online show physical clashes occurring in front of San Jose police officers dressed in riot gear and standing stoically in a line outside the convention center where Trump spoke. Critics also complained that assaults occurred on side streets near the venue that lacked police presence.

Election 2016 Leadership Contrast: Résumé vs. Bumper Sticker, Pollster Says (WSJ 6/3/16)

As the 2016 presidential primary season comes to a close for both parties, voters have gotten a pretty clear impression of what kind of leadership they would get from former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and New York businessman Donald Trump. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll helps illustrate how dramatically different those impressions of the two presumptive nominees are. GOP pollster Micah Roberts concludes that Mrs. Clinton’s selling points read like a résumé; Mr. Trump’s like a bumper sticker.

Boomers 35% Of Voters In 2016 Presidential Election (MediaPost 5/30/16)

According to the American Consumers Newsletter by Cheryl Russell, New Strategist Press, the Baby-Boom generation will account for more than one-third of voters in the 2016 presidential election, outnumbering voters in the other generations. Millennials will account for 26% of the total. Gen Xers will rank third, casting 20% of votes, more than the Silent and World War II generations combined. The oldest members of the iGeneration (aged 18 to 21) will cast their first vote for president in 2016, and they will account for just 4% of the total. Demo Memo calculated these figures by applying single-year-of-age citizenship and voting rates from the 2012 presidential election to the Census Bureau’s 2016 population projections.

How Donald Trump could win (CNN 6/1/16

Donald Trump’s transition from primary flame-thrower to general-election standard bearer has been marked by controversy. In just the past week, he’s caused an uproar by blasting the Republican governor of New Mexico — one of the party’s most prominent Latinas — while also calling Elizabeth Warren “Pocahontas” and abruptly parting ways with his recently hired political director. But there are also signs that he’s willing to moderate some of his primary positions and take more conventional steps to prepare for November, such as building out a national finance team, hiring a pollster, accepting checks from wealthy donors and hitting the fundraising circuit.

Oil analyst: Here’s who Saudi Arabia wants as the next U.S. president (CNBC 6/1/16

The U.S. presidential race is capturing the interest of every nation as onlookers look to see who becomes the next “leader of the free world.” According to Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Group, countries in the oil-producing Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, are hoping for Hillary Clinton to become president. The presidential election is scheduled for early November and the two leading contenders are viewed as Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, and Clinton, front- runner for the Democratic nomination.

How new voter ID laws may affect the 2016 presidential contest (PBS 6/5/16)

17 states will have new voting regulations in place for the presidential election this November. 12 states will join the ranks of those requiring voters to show a government-issued photo ID, including North Carolina and Texas. For more insight on these new regulations, Hari Sreenivasan speaks with Reuters National Affairs Editor Jason Szep.

California’s registered voters hit record high ahead of Tuesday presidential primary (LA Times 6/5/16)

With one of the most closely watched presidential primary seasons in modern times0, California’s voter rolls grew by almost 650,000 in the final six weeks of registration. And three of every four new voters were Democrats. On Friday, Secretary of State Alex Padilla released the final report of voter registration prior to the June 7 statewide primary. The deadline to register for Tuesday’s election was May 23. Of the 646,220 people who registered in the final rush —between April 8 and May 23 — 76% became Democrats.

‘Missing’ White Voters Might Help Trump, But Less So Where He Needs It (FiveThirtyEight 6/2/16)

A common refrain is that demographics will ultimately doom Donald Trump’s candidacy. His most reliable supporters have been whites without college degrees — a group that made up 65 percent of voters in 1980 but is on pace to make up just 33 percent in 2016. Meanwhile, nonwhite voters, with whom Trump is extremely unpopular, rose from 12 percent of the electorate in 1980 to 28 percent in 2012.


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