105 days until Election Day
- Clinton Picks Virginia’s Kaine as Running Mate
- Reagan historian to the GOP: Unify or lose the 2016 election
- Third parties shake up Senate battle
Introducing The Upshot’s Presidential Prediction Model (NY Times 7/19/16)
For now, at least, Hillary Clinton has a 76 percent chance of defeating Donald Trump to become president of the United States. A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same probability an NBA player will miss a free throw. This electoral probability, the first forecast by the Upshot’s presidential prediction model, is based on the voting history of each state and on roughly 300 state and national polls of the race conducted since mid-April.
Fact-checking Donald Trump’s acceptance speech at the 2016 RNC (Washington Post 7/22/16)
The dark portrait of America Donald J. Trump sketched in his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention is a compendium of doomsday stats that fall apart upon close scrutiny. Numbers are taken out of context, data is manipulated, and sometimes the facts are wrong. When facts are inconveniently positive — such as rising incomes and an unemployment rate under 5 percent — Trump simply declines to mention them. He describes an exceedingly violent nation, flooded with murders, when in reality, the violent-crime rate has been cut in half since the crack cocaine epidemic hit its peak in 1991.
Trump: I wouldn’t accept Cruz endorsement (Politico 7/22/16)
Donald Trump wouldn’t accept Ted Cruz‘s endorsement even if he offered it to him, the Republican nominee said Friday, two days after the Texas senator declined to back him in epic fashion during his convention speech.
“He’s fine. I don’t want his endorsement. If he gives it, I will not accept it, just so you understand. I will not accept it,” Trump said. “It won’t matter. Honestly, he should have done it. Because nobody cares. And he would have been in better shape for four years from now. I don’t see him winning anyway, frankly. But if he did, it’s fine.”
Democratic National Convention 2016: Everything You Need to Know (ABC News 7/23/16)
The Republican National Convention wrapped up this week, and now it is the Democrats’ turn in the spotlight. Democrats from all over the country will gather at Philadelphia’s Wells Fargo Center, the arena home of the 76ers and the Flyers, from Monday, July 25, through Thursday for the Democratic National Convention, which will formally nominate Hillary Clinton as the party’s presidential nominee and Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine as her running mate.
Republican hopefuls eye 2020 election at 2016 convention (Chicago Tribune 7/18/16)
The political courtship for 2020 is underway. The Republican Party’s potential future candidates — from House Speaker Paul Ryan to Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton — on Monday schmoozed with state delegations considered critical in a presidential election. The practice, while expected, is a delicate dance in which the party’s rising stars circulate among key delegates even before Donald Trump accepts the official nomination this week.
Jeff Sessions at RNC: 2016 Election About Immigration, Elites Respond ‘With Disdain’ (Breitbart 7/18/16)
Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) got his prime-time message out to America, loud and clear, during the 2016 GOP convention: “Excess immigration floods the labor market, reducing wages and job prospects.” Sessions’ focus on curbing immigration and improving trade has been the jet fuel in Donald Trump’s insurgent campaign. “Average Americans have been the first to note that something is wrong with this economy — our middle class is steadily declining … but the Washington establishment, the media, big corporations have been in denial,” the Alabama senator declared.
How Time Kaine matches up against Mike Pence (Politico 7/22/16)
Both are known for their distaste for smash-mouth campaigning. Yet each will attack when cornered, and can go on the offensive when necessary. That’s how allies and rivals alike describe Indiana Gov. Mike Pence and Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, the presidential running mates who will go head-to-head in a single high-stakes debate in early October. Pence, Donald Trump’s vice presidential nominee, and Kaine, who will appear on Hillary Clinton’s ticket, aren’t likely to play the traditional attack dog roles. But each knows how to draw blood when necessary.
Dems’ Convention Unity Script Marred by DNC Emails (Real Clear Politics 7/25/16)
After watching Donald Trump’s messy GOP convention in Cleveland last week, Democrats imagined their party would come together in the City of Brotherly Love and blanket the airwaves with harmony and inclusiveness. That may yet happen at the end of the week, when Hillary Clinton makes history as the first woman to win a major political party nomination to be president, but what’s clear at the outset is that intraparty upheavals are a bipartisan affliction.