Breaking news alert: According to a poll released by Alabama’s own Cygnal polling firm, Kay Ivey is going to win the Alabama general election and keep her place in the governors office. According to the release by Cygnal, “The survey conducted July 24 – 25, with 1,027 likely general election voters, shows Republicans with a 14-point lead over Democratic candidates, with incumbent Governor Kay Ivey leading Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox 56% to 42%.”
Pause for dramatic effect.
Think about it… who could have possibly predicted such an outcome?
Then, you realize anyone with the ability to play the old fashioned grade school greater than or less than game with basic numbers could have predicted it.
Why? Because voter registration, voter turn-out… you know, the little things in political life add up to victory.
Yes, people have talked about a “blue wave” across the country this cycle. But those people are “kooky dukes,” as Maui favorite character Moana would say, if they actually think a blue wave is coming to Alabama.
And if you say “Doug Jones,” I’m going to give you some side eye and smile politely while refusing to tell you how that’s irrelevant here.
The fact is: Alabama is a conservative state. We like our candidates and our elected officials, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment, for smaller government and lower taxes, with a big old “R” behind their names.
I don’t see any circumstances in which Kay Ivey doesn’t win the election. Though if there were a candidate who could capitalize on a bad year for Republicans it would be Walt Maddox with his energy, likability and experience but alas it’s not the right time or place for him.
Though his candidacy, like Jones’, will help strengthen the very weak Democrat party throughout the state and help them down the road with local and legislative races. Not his fault he doesn’t stand a chance… numbers stand in his way.
If you’re curious to see those number, here they are via the Secretary of the State’s website, from all of the general elections in the last 10 years.
On that note, I’m going to go ahead and call the race early. Kay Ivey continues to be governor, and every Republican straight on down the ticket will win too. See ya at the polls!