Presidential primary brief: 484 days until Election Day

2016 Presidential Primary Brief_6 July Update

Welcome to the Monday presidential primary brief provided by Alabama Today. Every week you can find your latest headlines on the presidential primary races as we count down the days until Election Day.

230 days until AL Presidential Primary

484 days until Election Day

Convention Dates: Republican July 18-21 2016, Democratic July 25-28 2016

Weekly Headlines:

Primary Brief_13 July 2015_GOP Polls

Primary Brief_13 July 2015_Dem Polls

Press Clips:

Global warming will play major role in 2016 presidential election (The Patriot News 7/12/15)

Pope Francis in mid-­June issued an encyclical calling for the world to combat global warming. It was developed with advice from the best scientists in the world, including world-­‐famous British physicist/cosmologist Stephen Hawking. The Dalai Lama has endorsed the message. This will force a titanic, worldwide discussion on the issue — partly a scientific debate, partly a food fight from deniers, skeptics and people who honestly feel we have better things to spend our money on.

Only one poll number right now tells us anything meaningful about the 2016 election (Washington Post 7/10/15)

Although the 2016 election is nearly 500 days away, the nation — or at least the nation’s political junkies — remain hungry for news about the presidential campaign. But what news is there? Polls. So far — in 2015 alone! — no fewer than 57 polls have asked voters to choose between hypothetical nominees Republican Jeb Bush and Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton. So it’s useful to be mindful that “trial heat” polls conducted now have zero ability to predict the winner of an election that’s 16 months away. Polls don’t even tell us much about primaries and caucuses that are six months away.

Upcoming polls to lock in GOP debate Field (Politico 7/7/15)

John Kasich may be the last Republican to enter the presidential fray, but his timing could be the best: Exactly two weeks after the splash of his planned announcement on July 21, Fox News Channel will average together the latest polls of the Republican Field and determine which 10 of the 16 announced candidates will participate in the First debate in Cleveland.

Making the cut gives a candidate the platform to stand out in a crowded Field; not making the cut leaves him or her knocking on the door.

Immigration reform key issue in 2016 election (USA Today 7/6/15)

At her job at an investment management firm in small-­‐town Nebraska, Analy Gonzalez is “constantly reminded” of the economic strain immigrant workers face. Gonzalez, who often works with migrant workers, says she sees firsthand the need for immigration reform, particularly for young immigrants. “Speaking about immigration reform is something that you grow up with having an immigrant family,” the 25-‐year-­old says. “A lot of the people that I help are immigrants working really difficult jobs with no education, just trying to get by.”

Jim Webb clarifies position on the Confederate flag (CBS News 7/9/15)

 Democratic presidential candidate and former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb said Thursday that the Confederate Flag at the South Carolina Capitol has “long been due to come down,” but he also called for some historical perspective on the issue, suggesting people should not use the debate over the flag to demonize the South. “The Confederate battle flag was a battle flag. It assumed a lot of unfortunate racist and divisionist overtones during the civil rights era,” Webb said in an interview on CBS This Morning, his first with a national broadcast outlet since announcing his candidacy earlier this month.

The demographics of 2016 look brutal for Republicans (Washington Post 7/10/15) 

If you want to understand why the debates over the Confederate flag and Donald Trump’s immigration outbursts have so many senior Republicans reaching for their acid reflux pills, take a look at this bracing new demographic analysis from Charlie Cook and David Wasserman. Cook and Wasserman note that historical patterns should favor the GOP in the 2016 presidential election, because the same party rarely keeps the White House after previously holding it for two terms. But that advantage will be swimming upstream against these demographics.

How Bernie Sanders plans to win and change Washington (CBS News 7/12/15) 

Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, says he’ll be able to build a giant grassroots movement of support to win the Democratic nomination and the 2016 election, but that he’ll also go one step further than President Obama did successfully harness his grassroots support to change Washington. In an interview on CBS’ Face the Nation Sunday, Sanders said that the president ran “one of the great campaigns in the history of the United States of America” in 2008, but he also made a mistake by trying to negotiate fair compromises with Republicans and their leadership in Congress.


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