Complex, yet fascinating: A primer on Alabama’s March presidential primary
With the 2016 election less than a year away, and the first caucuses within the next 90 days, now is a good time for a review of what could be an interesting, yet complex, turn of events. Much of the situation will depend on the state of the Republican field come March 1. Here is a primer of Alabama’s primary delegation process: Alabama’s Presidential Preference Primary is March 1, 2016, and does not require voters to declare a party preference when registering to vote. The Yellowhammer State has an open primary, meaning any registered voter can vote in the primary for any party. Voters choose the primary in which to vote, and they are not required to be a party member in order to vote. According to the state Department of Elections, requirements to vote in Alabama is as follows: each applicant is a citizen of the United States; is an Alabama resident; a minimum of 18 years old on or before Election Day; is not barred from voting by a disqualifying felony conviction, and has not been declared mentally incompetent by a court. The state does not permit online voter registration, early voting or “no excuse” absentee voting. Since 2014, to cast a ballot in Alabama requires valid photo identification at the polls. Alabama’s delegation is 26 at-large (numbered At-Large #1, At-Large #2, etc.), 21-Congressional District and three automatic (“unbound”) for 50 total, which will be allocated proportionally, as a what is known as winner-take-most. The threshold for any candidate to qualify for delegates is 20 percent, both statewide and within each congressional district. This follows Republican National Committee rules stating elections held before March 15 will be assigned proportionately. Some conservatives believe the rule was designed to help well-funded candidates (establishment favorites) who are in the race for the long term, and is an obstacle for grassroots candidates desperate for a primary win to rally supporters (and funds). Delegates are bound to their qualifying presidential candidates until either a candidate withdraws from the race for the Republican Party nomination and releases the delegates or if – by a two-thirds vote – the total number of delegates bound to that candidate become “unbound” at the national convention. That closes the door to any potential abuse but allows just enough for delegates to wiggle out of a pledge, in a scenario with multiple ballots/votes to determine the nominee at the convention. Enforcement of original pledges is left to the head of the Alabama delegation and/or the RNC secretary. While the system is designed to release delegates if a battle on the convention floor occurs, there is no mention of a specific number of ballots taken before a delegate can be released. Compared to four years ago, there are no other substantive rule changes in Alabama elections, but unlike other early primary states – New Hampshire, for one – proportional allocation of Alabama delegates come from two different groups: at-large statewide and congressional district delegates. To get either type, candidates must meet the 20 percent threshold, twice the limit set in New Hampshire. If a single candidate receives a majority of the Alabama’s vote, then he or she will receive all 26 at-large delegates. If a candidate receives a simple majority in any Alabama Congressional District, he or she will win three of the district’s delegates. The Alabama GOP Delegate Information Process datasheet outlines that a delegate must vote for the candidate they pledged on their qualifying form. If the candidate releases his delegates/alternates, then they can vote for a different person. As it stands, with such a large field of Republican presidential candidates – now standing at 15 – the chances are unlikely that a single candidate will receive a majority either statewide or in congressional districts. However, there is a possibility that the southern GOP contest – the so-called “SEC Primary” – will be a game changer in the 2016 presidential race. There is a likelihood the field will narrow after the early primary states of New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. On the other hand, with a big group of candidates remaining March 1, it will substantially limit the probability of the rise of a consensus candidate. The bottom line: it might be a good bet that one person does not emerge on Super Tuesday with all 47 Alabama delegates. That said, there is a path (albeit a backdoor one) for a candidate to receive a majority of Alabama delegates, even in a large field. One only needs to meet the 20-percent threshold, either statewide or within a congressional district. If that is the case, where a particular candidate meets the 20 percent bar statewide, then they will control half (+1) of delegates, regardless of the results in the congressional districts. Understandably, Alabama’s allotment system has the potential to cause a considerable amount of political turmoil, overshadowing what should be a somewhat organized process. With a smaller number of candidates, though, the odds of one person picking up 20 percent of the vote increases. And as that number reaches two – it becomes almost assured that one (or the other) will meet the 50 percent threshold, receiving all delegates. Another case is when the vote triggers a potential winner-take-most scenario. In that situation, there would be a 20 percent bar for one and a 50 percent threshold for the other. With the current state of the race, there is a likelihood that more than one candidate will reach the 20 percent, thereby qualifying for delegates. Here is where math comes in. Since it is statistically impossible for a field of over five viable candidates to receive more than 20 percent each, the overall effect is somewhat limiting. Alabama’s delegate allocation system promotes narrowing the field of contenders – or at least accelerating the winnowing already taking place before March 1. Therefore, if (or when) these conditions are met, 26 at-large delegates will be spread out among candidates who get at least 20 percent of the vote. As for
Email Insights: What just one year of Uber could do for the Magic City
Another week and the Magic City still doesn’t have Uber. Over two and a half months ago Uber executives travelled to the Birmingham to meet with the city’s Committee of the Whole to discuss the potential for ridesharing companies to operate in the city. Despite promising discussions, the city has done very little to move the ball forward. Instead, the Birmingham City Council focused on drafting an overhaul the city’s transportation code. “This is a complete rewrite to all sections of the code, including the horse-drawn carriage section, and we need to hear from as many stakeholders as possible,” Councilor Kim Rafferty said. “This input will ensure that we have addressed or properly regulated all forms of motorized vehicle, pedicab, and horse transportation in the City of Birmingham, without compromising the regulatory integrity of other jurisdictions in which these companies and services may work in.” The council took public comments on the proposed changes through Friday, and now Magic City residents will wait for a special called meeting at 5 p.m. Nov. 17 at city hall to hear more about the comments and code updates. Meanwhile Uber is still making a public case as to how it will help improve life in the Magic City while simultaneously doing everything they can to alleviate any fears Birmingham officials may have, including publishing in in-depth look at the impact of just one year of Uber in the city would look like. For a look at what just one year of Uber could do for the Magic City, check out the email below: As the largest metro area in Alabama, Birmingham has a lot to offer residents and visitors. Beyond being the cultural and entertainment capital of the state, downtown Birmingham has great restaurants, shops, and dozens of apartment buildings under construction. It’s also seen job growth over the past five years and is ranked high for millennial entrepreneurs. But the greater metro area lacks transportation options to support downtown Birmingham’s resurgence, and 24 percent of Jefferson County residents are still underemployed. Ridesharing can help bridge such gaps. Options like Uber will offer safe, reliable rides in the community while simultaneously providing residents with an opportunity to make supplemental income. Using similar Uber cities as a comparison, we looked into the potential impact that Uber could have in Birmingham after just one year of operating uberX – our ridesharing product – under a sensible set of regulations that reflect the business model. Take a look at the projections to see just what Uber could do for Birmingham when it comes to moving people, offering economic opportunity and making our communities safer. Providing a Safe, Reliable, and Affordable Transportation Option Tens of thousands of people in Birmingham – and in the surrounding suburbs – have opened up the Uber app looking for a safe ride. It’s clear there is great demand for more transportation options throughout the greater Birmingham area so that people can safely travel to their destinations. We project that Birmingham residents and visitors will complete more than 116,000 trips in our first year of operating in the city. Having an Impact on the Local Economy Uber will undoubtedly have a positive impact on the Birmingham economy. Local drivers will have the opportunity to use Uber and turn on their ability to work and make supplemental income at their leisure. If Uber is able to operate our ridesharing product, uberX, we predict that more than 670 greater Birmingham area residents will be partnering with Uber in just the first year of operations. These driver-partners will have the potential to earn a combined $1,500,000 in net fares in the first year, with room to grow in future years. Making Birmingham a Better, Safer Place to Live Whether it’s your average Friday night or day of a big event like Magic City Classic or Sloss Fest, the increased availability of a reliable, affordable late night transportation option will provide a dependable alternative to driving under the influence in Birmingham. According to MADD, in the past year in Alabama, there were 260 drunk driving fatalities (.08 BAC or higher), representing 30.5 percent of all total traffic deaths, a 8.3 percent increase from the previous year. In Baton Rouge, a city similar to the size of Birmingham, DUI arrests are down nearly 18 percent in a year since Uber entered market. As the graph below shows, we expect to see demand peak at the same time alcohol related crash fatalities are at their highest — right around “last call” during late nights. This means Uber has the potential to save lives in the Magic City since people are expected to request a safe, reliable ride with Uber at times when they may have otherwise gotten behind the wheel. Despite being able to have such an impact in the Magic City, the public proposals thus far are unworkable and don’t reflect the ridesharing business model. For Uber to come to Birmingham, city officials need to pass pro-innovation regulations that will enable residents and visitors to use the Uber they’ve experienced and enjoyed in cities around the world. More than 60 other U.S. jurisdictions have been able to accomplish this goal and we’re confident Birmingham can do the same.
