Donald Trump’s movement campaign needs adjustments at margins
Donald Trump calls his presidential campaign a mass movement, but he must show he can coax enough support from voters who twice delivered the White House to Barack Obama. The billionaire businessman depended almost exclusively on conservative and GOP-leaning whites – a majority of them men – to secure the Republican nomination. Now he must look ahead to a wider, more diverse voting population in his likely general election matchup with Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton. His ability to seize on marginal shifts in the electorate may determine whether he can pull off a victory once unthinkable. Trump’s task is critical to flipping back into the GOP column some of the most contested states that Obama won twice. This challenge is perhaps most evident in Florida, a culturally, racially and ideologically varied state where Obama defeated Republican Mitt Romney four years ago by fewer than 75,000 votes out of more than 8.4 million cast. That means small shifts anywhere in the electorate could make a difference – from turnout changes among white small-town and rural Republicans or urban, nonwhite Democrats to partisans, embittered by contentious nominating bouts, choosing third-party candidates or declining to vote at all; and if Trump can’t close the gaps in Florida, he has little shot at winning key Rust Belt and Great Lakes states where Obama’s advantages were greater. “We still elect presidents using the Electoral College … depending on states that are made up of diverse electorates,” cautions GOP pollster Whit Ayres. “There aren’t enough angry white people to create a majority in the new America of 2016, (and) running up your numbers with white males in Mississippi doesn’t get you one more electoral vote than Mitt Romney.” One of Trump’s vanquished primary rivals, Sen. Marco Rubio, told reporters this week Trump can win Florida, which has gone with the winner in every presidential contest since 1996, as long as he can “continue to be Donald.” That brash outsider pitch has sewn up support from white men like Jack Oliver, a 66-year-old construction worker from West Palm Beach and 84-year-old Frank Papa, a retired grocery manager from Clearwater. Oliver cites Trump’s hard line on immigration and calls him a leader “who will finally give a damn about people like me.” Papa, a New Jersey native, says Trump “speaks my language, talks and thinks like me.” But Trump must expand his reach. “If he can’t unify Republicans, there really isn’t enough votes for him to make up elsewhere,” said Steve Schale, who ran Obama’s 2008 campaign in Florida. He said Florida elections have been close for decades, noting 41 million combined presidential votes have been cast since 1992, with fewer than 131,000 votes separating the combined totals of Democratic and Republican nominees. Trump gives lip service to the electorate’s diversity, suggesting “the Mexican people” will “vote for me like crazy” and that he can win 25 percent of African-Americans. The highest number of African-Americans won by any GOP nominee since 1980 is about 12 percent. He said recently he could lure “40 percent” of voters backing Clinton’s primary opponent, Bernie Sanders. Some nonwhite Floridians mock Trump’s claims about his own appeal. “I haven’t heard any of my (black) friends say they’ll vote for Trump,” said Tanisha Winns, 39, a black Democrat in Lakeland, located along central Florida’s Interstate 4 corridor that twice helped give Republican George W. Bush the statewide victory before swinging in Obama’s favor. “If anything, I’m hearing my white friends say they won’t,” Winns added. For now, Florida polls suggest Trump and Clinton are running about even, with about 15 percent undecided. But there are variables that should give Trump pause. In 2012, nonwhites accounted for almost a third of all votes cast in Florida, compared to 28 percent nationwide. But population growth, driven by Hispanics, suggests both numbers could be higher come November. Obama beat Romney among Florida’s black voters, with 95 percent. The president won Hispanics by a 60-40 margin, closer than his 71-27 advantage nationally, with many of Florida’s conservative Cuban-American voters accounting for the difference. Those numbers still left Romney too reliant on whites. He managed 61 percent of Florida’s white vote – better than his 59 percent nationally – but he needed to get closer to 63 percent to win the Sunshine State’s 29 electoral votes. Demographers and pollsters from both parties say Trump likely would have to push into the mid- to high-60s with whites – a level no candidate has reached since Ronald Reagan‘s 1984 landslide – to have a chance nationally. That’s even more daunting considering an AP-GfK poll, taken in April, that found two out of three white women view Trump negatively. Among them are Republicans the nominee absolutely must get. In Clearwater, Republican Barbie Sugas says she’s always voted for the GOP nominee, but the 47-year-old surgical technician said she’s “kind of leaning toward Clinton” because she doesn’t “trust Trump” with international affairs. To be sure, Clinton also must shore up her Democratic base, still divided with Sanders in the race. Jennifer Perelman, a Sanders supporter, says she won’t back the former secretary of state. But she won’t vote for Trump either. Her plan: to vote for Sanders as a write-in candidate. Ayres, the Republican pollster, affirmed that it’s “not impossible” for Trump to fashion a winning coalition. But, he says, “You’re basically arguing that somehow, a constant 20-year-plus demographic trend is just going to magically stop.” Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Alabama Memorial Day messages
Today, families across Alabama and the country pause to honor and remember those who made the ultimate sacrifice to secure our safety, security and freedom. We honor and mourn those, who generation after generation, coming from every corner of our great Nation, have shed their blood in this country and in foreign lands across the globe so that we may have our liberty still today. On this Memorial Day we honor and remember the fallen – these selfless and heroic men and women. Here are some Memorial Day messages from elected officials in Alabama: Governor Robert Bentley: Today we honor the service men and women who made the ultimate sacrifice for this country. Lt. Gov. Kay Ivey: Today and everyday, we remember and honor those who made the ultimate sacrifice for our country. #MemorialDay2016 Alabama Attorney General Luther Strange: Remembering those who paid the ultimate price for our freedom. We are forever grateful for their sacrifice and the sacrifice of their families. Have a safe and wonderful Memorial Day weekend. Alabama 1st District Rep. Bradley Byrne: Freedom is not – and has never been – free. May we never forget those who paid the ultimate sacrifice in defense of freedom, and may we each work every day to uphold the very freedoms they fought so hard to protect. God bless those who serve our great nation! Alabama 2nd District Rep. Martha Roby: When we remember the sacrifice of those who gave their lives fighting for this country, it is impossible not to feel a deep, humbling sense of gratitude for a debt we cannot pay. I hope you’ll take a moment to reflect on those brave men and women and the sacrifices they made to keep this nation free. Please also take time to share what this day means with children so that they may grow up understanding that gratitude and that debt we owe. Blessings to you and your family this #MemorialDay. Alabama 4th District Rep. Robert Aderholt: This Memorial Day Weekend I hope that you will take time to remember the true cost of our freedom. The men featured in this video are all from the 4th Congressional District and are listed by the Department of Defense as being killed in action since the September 11th attacks in 2001. This is the true sacrifice that keeps us free. We can’t and we won’t forget them or the others who have died serving our country since 1776. Alabama 5th District Rep. Mo Brooks: Proclaimed on May 5, 1868, Memorial Day is an opportunity for Americans to reflect on our nation’s history and on the great sacrifices made by the men and women of the U.S. military to protect and defend our way of life. This weekend, I encourage every American to observe in your own way a moment of remembrance for those who have given their lives in service to our great nation. Alabama 6th District Rep. Gary Palmer: As has been said, we cannot expect to be the land of the free unless we are the home of the brave. Our veterans will not be forgotten. Alabama 7th District Rep. Terri Sewell: As we prepare for cook-outs and family gatherings, we must stop and recognize that Memorial Day is so much more than a three-day weekend – especially to the families and friends who still mourn for the love ones lost in battle and those who have returned home, but still face challenges ahead. We must never forget these patriotic individuals who swore an oath to defend this nation. Their sacrifices live on through the freedoms they fought to secure for all of us. So too must we stay vigilant in the fight to ensure that all citizens are able to enjoy the rights and protections our country was founded on.
Bradley Byrne: Freedom isn’t free
“Here we mark the price of freedom.” Those are the words engraved on the Freedom Wall at the World War II Memorial in Washington, D.C. The Freedom Wall includes 4,048 gold stars, and each star represents 100 American military deaths during the Second World War. I recently took time to visit the memorial and pay my respects to those who served our country and the ones who ultimately lost their lives in defense of the freedoms we all hold dear. The monument is especially powerful for me because many members of my family played a role in the war. My dad served in the Army as U.S. forces island-hopped throughout the Pacific. My uncle, Pat Byrne, fought in the Battle of the Bulge, where he sustained serious injuries. He went on to earn the Purple Heart for his service. Another uncle, Jack Langsdale, actually lost his life while serving in the Merchant Marines after his ship was sunk by a German U-boat. These are just the stories from my family. I know every family has their own stories of service and sacrifice from the Greatest Generation and other conflicts, including the ongoing War on Terror. In Washington, I fight every day to ensure we are giving our current service members the tools they need to defend our country. The military has seen cuts in recent years that have taken a real toll on our military equipment and resources. This, in turn, has put many service members at greater risk. So, with Memorial Day approaching, the House recently passed the National Defense Authorization Act. This legislation sets policy and authorizes spending for our military. The bill orders a pay raise for our troops while also providing proper oversight of the Pentagon. One of the best ways to avoid major conflict and prevent putting more Americans in harm’s way is to project American strength around the world. In order to do that, we need a strong and fully capable military. This year’s NDAA would get us headed in the right direction by making serious investments in our military readiness. I was proud to support the bill as we work to rebuild our military. I always hear a lot about the need to keep our military strong, and I recently heard the same plea from veterans at the Armed Forces Day event at Battleship Memorial Park in Mobile. This event was especially powerful because the traveling Vietnam Veterans Memorial Wall was on display, and many of our local Vietnam veterans were seeing the wall for the first time. One veteran broke down in tears upon seeing the name of one of his former comrades. His tears spoke to the pain of war, but also to the camaraderie that is shared amongst our service members. It was an incredibly powerful moment, and only reaffirmed my commitment to standing up for our veterans and active-duty service members. This Memorial Day, I hope you took time to reflect on the stories of service and sacrifice that helped make our country great. Hopefully you were able to pay special respects to the men and women who ultimately lost their life in defense of freedom. Freedom is not, and has never been, free. That is the message in each of those stars on the World War II Memorial, in each of those names on the Vietnam Wall, and on each tombstone at Arlington National Cemetery. May we never forget those who paid the ultimate sacrifice, and may we each work every day to uphold the freedoms they fought so hard to protect. • • • Bradley Byrne is a member of U.S. Congress representing Alabama’s 1st Congressional District.
Gary Palmer: Always remember
A single moment can change a person’s views on the world and the people around them. April 28, 2010, did that to me. On that day, in the Helmand province of Afghanistan, Lance Corporal Thomas Rivers, Jr. gave his last full measure of devotion. Rivers was a team leader with 1st Squad, 1st Platoon, Alpha Company, 1st Battalion, 2nd Marines Regiment. As he did every morning, LCpl. Rivers’ father, Tom, finished his morning Bible study and had prayed for Thomas. Just after 7am, he was in the kitchen making coffee when he heard the sound of a car door shut in front of his home. When he looked out, he saw three Marines walking to his front door. Both Tom and his wife Charon knew what the Marines’ visit meant. It meant another sacrifice had been made by another American soldier. LCpl. Rivers wasn’t the only one who made a sacrifice; his family had placed a precious gift on the bloodstained altar of freedom. This time, it was their son. LCpl. Rivers died of injuries sustained from an Improvised Explosive Device (IED). He was on the mission that day because a Marine in his company who had just gotten engaged had been up late celebrating with his friends. Rivers knew he was tired so he told him he would take his place. Along with members of the 1st Squad, LCpl. Rivers was carrying out a mission to prevent the enemy from firing on Patrol Base Sofla. According to the account of Cpl. Daniel A. Blatter, “Rivers set up security in a compound just north of Sofla after covering watch for a fellow Marine moments before. When he took over watch, he triggered an anti-personnel improvised explosive device.” While other members of his squad held security, three of his best friends, including another team leader LCpl. Matthew Proctor, rushed to his side to give aid. As LCpl. Proctor held his hand, he and Proctor recited Rivers’ favorite scripture verse from Psalm 91: He who dwells in the shelter of the Most High will rest in the shadow of the Almighty. In an interview two weeks later, Proctor said that Rivers was not only one of his best friends, but also a spiritual mentor to him. Together they had started a Bible study in an effort to reach out to fellow Marines to help them any way they could. But he also said that the best part about Rivers was his warrior-like attitude. Proctor said, “… as Marines, we are all warriors, but Rivers stood out among us all. He was one of the best team leaders in the battalion. And I know for sure, the best team leader in Alpha Company.” Soldiers never really die alone. Somewhere there are moms and dads, brothers and sisters and other family and friends who die a little too. American soldiers pride themselves on being a “band of brothers,” but they are more than that, they are a band of families, especially when one falls. Our country needs young men like Thomas Rivers, but not just to fight our wars. Men like Thomas and his friend Matthew Proctor have something that is missing from our national character and that is the willingness to sacrifice their own interests for the good of others. LCpl. Rivers knew the danger involved and he knew he could stay out of harm’s way that day by simply allowing the exhausted Marine to participate in that mission. Instead, he took his place. If that were all there was to this story, it would be enough. But there is more. As the funeral procession drove down I-65 to the Alabama National Cemetery located at the American Village just east of Montevallo, people lined the Interstate overpasses holding signs and waving flags in tribute. They lined the sides of the highway leading to the cemetery where more waited for his arrival. Dave Lewis, a minister at Briarwood Presbyterian Church and a retired Marine, said, “I have been very concerned about the future of this country. But seeing all those people that came out to honor this young man has made me realize that at our core, we are OK. We are still Americans.” I hope Dave Lewis is right about the country. I hope we are still a people willing to do the hard work of restoring strength and vitality to our nation, willing to get involved and give of our time and resources to make a difference. I hope there is still a measure of patriot blood flowing in our veins and we still hold that there are “self-evident” truths worth fighting and dying for. Because of LCpl. Rivers, Memorial Day means more to me now, not just because he is the first casualty from the War on Terror to be buried at the Alabama National Cemetery, but because he was also the son of a friend of mine. Memorial Day will not be just another day off work; it will be a reminder of the high price LCpl. Rivers paid and that his family and other service men and women and their families have paid and continue to pay to allow this nation to live in liberty and safety. As I visit the Alabama National Cemetery this Memorial Day, I hope and pray that there is still enough courage left. As someone else said, we cannot expect to be the land of the free unless we are the home of the brave. In that regard, there was no question about Thomas Rivers. • • • Gary Palmer is a congressman representing Alabama’s 6th District.
Dominic M. Calabro: Take time to remember sacrifices of soldiers on Memorial Day
I remember my Dad telling me stories of World War II when I was a kid. He told me about his friends who died to preserve the American way of life and to rid the world of a madman. Stories like my Dad’s remind me that nothing in our life in America comes without a price. Men and women of all backgrounds fought and died because they took an oath to defend their country from those who wished to harm it. My Dad and I participated in the Tallahassee Honor Flight in 2013. It was an honor to accompany my Dad on this journey to meet his fellow veterans and visit the World War II Memorial. I began thinking about all those men who died fighting in that war. Every country has men that will die for their country. But these men didn’t just die for the United States. They died for an idea; an idea of American exceptionalism in a dark world, built on the foundation of a constitutional republic that protects the rights of all its citizens. That is why on Memorial Day we honor our brave soldiers who died in the line of duty. Many will spend Memorial Day relaxing from work. Others will celebrate the beginning of summer with hot dogs and swimming trunks. But take some time out of your day to remember our fallen soldiers. Attend a local Memorial Day ceremony. Volunteer with local veterans’ groups. Learn about a local soldier who passed away during battle. Keeping their memories alive is how we can ensure that their sacrifice did not go in vain. I’m proud to be the son of a veteran and I’m sure many in our great state are proud of all of our Florida-born soldiers and all of their sacrifices. We should be glad that we live in a state that has taken steps to help our veterans and has given them expanded educational and professional opportunities to succeed in civilian life. Our commitment to our veterans honors the memories of those we lost and never will forget. To all those who have fought and continue to fight for American freedom, thank you. ___ Dominic M. Calabro is president and CEO of Florida TaxWatch.
