Most Americans say Barack Obama didn’t live up to his promises
More than half of Americans view President Barack Obama favorably as he leaves office, a new poll shows, but Americans remain deeply divided over his legacy. Fewer than half of Americans say they’re better off eight years after his election or that Obama brought the country together. An Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll conducted after the 2016 election illuminates one of the key contradictions of Obama’s presidency. By and large, Americans like him. Yet Obama has been unable to translate that approval to many of his policies, or to parlay his popularity into fulfillment of his goals. Fifty-seven percent of Americans said they view Obama favorably, while 37 percent said they have an unfavorable view. Just over half said Obama’s presidency has been great or good. Those figures contrast sharply with how Americans viewed Obama just a few years ago. In December 2014, the month after Democrats lost control of the Senate, just 41 percent said they viewed Obama favorably in an AP-GfK poll. Did Obama keep his promises? He did not, in the minds of 2 of 3 Americans. Forty-four percent say he tried to make good but failed, more than the 22 percent who say he didn’t keep promises at all or the 32 percent who said he did keep them. Those figures reflect the frustrations felt even among many longtime Obama supporters about the lack of progress on major priorities such as overhauling the nation’s immigration laws, enacting gun control measures and shuttering the prison in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. “He acted very presidential, but he just couldn’t get things done,” said Dale Plath, a retired sales manager from Mason City, Iowa. He said he voted for Obama the first time, voted against him the second, and this year, Plath said: “I voted for change, frankly” – in the form of Donald Trump. “Yes, I understand the Republicans were against Obama,” Plath said. “But there have been other presidents in the same situation, and they were able to pull through.” Still, Obama will exit the White House in far better shape than his predecessor, President George W. Bush, who was viewed favorably by just 40 percent of Americans in polling conducted by Gallup as his presidency closed in January 2008. Bush’s father, President George H.W. Bush, fared better, with 62 percent viewing him favorably at the end of him time in office, despite his failure to win a second term. Obama is roughly on par with President Bill Clinton, who was also viewed favorably by 57 percent of Americans at the end of his eight years in the White House. The nation’s first black president and his complicated legacy come into sharper focus when it comes to race. Nearly 8 in 10 African Americans view him favorably, but far fewer see his presidency as having yielded the type of profound changes for black Americans that many once hoped. Just 43 percent of African Americans said Obama had made things better for black people, while roughly half said they saw no difference. Six percent said Obama had made things worse. For Ronald Thornton, a 62-year-old African American from Obama’s hometown of Chicago, change has come only around the margins. Thornton said he views Obama very favorably, but added that even Obama’s biggest achievement – the Affordable Care Act, or “Obamacare” – had come with downsides for people like him. “The first year that it went into effect, I didn’t have insurance,” said Thornton, who later purchased care through the Obamacare marketplaces. “I was penalized for it that year, and I really don’t have money to pay for that penalty.” The sharp divisions in American society exposed by the 2016 elections are striking given the high hopes for national unity that took hold after Obama’s historic 2008 election. Eight years later, just 27 percent see the U.S. as more united as a result of his presidency. Far more – 44 percent – say it’s more divided. Nearly 9 in 10 Democrats and people who lean Democratic view him favorably, while 3 in 4 Republicans and GOP-leaning Americans have a negative view. Independents are roughly divided. “It’s one of the few regrets of my presidency – that the rancor and suspicion between the parties has gotten worse instead of better,” Obama said last January in his final State of the Union address. When he took office, the nation was in dire economic straits, with jobs evaporating and a financial crisis deepening by the day. Near the end of Obama’s first year in office, the jobless rate hit a quarter-century high of 10 percent. He leaves the White House with unemployment at just 4.7 percent after 75 straight months of job growth, though it’s come with sluggish rises in wages and as many older Americans simply gave up on finding work. It may be those persistent challenges that have fueled the perception that despite the economic recovery, things haven’t improved enough. Just 4 in 10 Americans said they and their families are better off than when Obama took office, while about a quarter say they’re worse off. About a third say they haven’t seen much change. Irene Purcell said she felt the difference. The former paralegal from Austin, Texas, was struggling to find work as a nanny in an economy where few had the money to hire help. “Just by virtue of him putting a large percentage of Americans back into the labor force, that made it possible for me,” Purcell said, as the 3-year-old she now watches squealed in the background. “That was a real good thing.” Republish with permission of The Associated Press.
No longer patient, Jeb Bush backers fret about sluggish campaign
For months, Jeb Bush‘s campaign insisted it was too early. Too early to worry about the Republican presidential candidate’s sluggish poll numbers. Too early to fret over the rise of unorthodox candidates Donald Trump and Ben Carson. Too early to question if the one-time front-runner is merely a pedestrian candidate. But with just over three months until primary voting gets underway in Iowa, and Bush still mired in the middle of the crowded GOP field, some supporters fear it could soon be too late. “The moment is now,” said New Hampshire State Rep. Carlos Gonzalez, reflecting the sense of urgency among nearly two dozen Bush supporters interviewed this past week by The Associated Press. On Friday, Bush signaled to supporters he understood the need to make a change. Faced with slower-than-expected fundraising, the campaign announced sweeping spending cuts, including a 40 percent payroll reduction, that will deplete staff at its Miami headquarters and refocus resources in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada — the first four states to hold nominating contests. “It means I have the ability to adapt,” Bush said of the changes. “The circumstances when we started the election were different.” But interviews with supporters in early states reveal concerns that extend far beyond the campaign’s allocation of resources. There are fears Bush is failing to distinguish himself from his rivals, despite a month of aggressive television advertising. Many said they were eager to see Bush be more assertive and forceful in debates, in his TV ads and at campaign appearances. They worry he may not be capable of doing so. “God gives us our personalities and our looks and we can’t help that,” said Robert Rowe, another New Hampshire state representative who is switching his allegiance from Bush to Ohio Gov. John Kasich. “We are who we are.” Said Bush supporter Steven Zumbach, an attorney from Des Moines, Iowa: “He’s going to need to take some risk. Unless he does something like that, it’s going to be difficult.” Bush campaign aides say they understand the anxiety, but blame it on an unusual political season that has diverted attention away from more traditional candidates — not a sign of weakness in the former Florida governor. Bush himself has urged voters to stay patient, reminding them that candidates who sit at the top of polls at this stage in the race often fade. “Four years ago Herman Cain was the front-runner. Two weeks prior to that it was Rick Perry,” Bush said Wednesday during a campaign stop in Nevada. “Both are great guys, but they didn’t win the nomination.” Indeed, many voters in Iowa and New Hampshire wait until just before their states’ contests to settle on a candidate. The outcomes in those first two states have ripple effects in South Carolina, Nevada and other states that quickly follow. There are also signs of volatility in the GOP contest. After spending the summer and fall atop the Republican field, Trump appears to be losing ground in Iowa to Carson, an untested politician with a penchant for provocative comments about Muslims and the Holocaust. Bush is still among the candidates viewed as most electable among Republican voters, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. Six in 10 registered Republicans say he could possibly win a general election — putting him just below Trump and about tied with Carson atop the field. Most of those interviewed by the AP said they remain loyal to Bush. Even as his campaign fundraising slows, they see his heavily funded super PAC as an advantage that could help him outlast his rivals. They believe his methodical approach to issues and record as Florida governor make him the most qualified Republican to be president. But they wonder if there’s room for a candidate like Bush in a race where voters seem eager to voice their displeasure with Washington and anyone with a history in politics. “Within about a month, he’s going to need to step forth,” said Barbara Smeltzer, a longtime GOP activist from Dubuque, Iowa. “He’s going to have to start to show some muscle.” Added Carroll Duncan, a councilwoman in Dorchester County, South Carolina, “My main concern is that his message is not getting out there. That’s up to his campaign to turn that around.” Bush aides say they’ve been trying to do just that, with both the campaign and Right to Rise super PAC blanketing the airwaves with advertisements. Right to Rise accounted for one of every two 2016 presidential ads last week, according to information collected by Kantar Media’s CMAG advertising tracker. Right to Rise began its media blitz the week of Sept. 15 with a $1.3 million buy in New Hampshire and Iowa, expanding to South Carolina the following week. The super PAC has spent about $2 million each week on ads, CMAG shows. The group’s media plans continue through mid-February — by which time it will have spent $42 million if it follows through on all of its airtime reservations. Bush’s campaign is trying to supplement the ad spending with a large footprint on the ground in early states. The campaign has 12 paid staffers in New Hampshire, 10 in Iowa, eight in Nevada and seven in South Carolina. The overhaul the campaign announced Friday aims to boost those numbers. Supporters hope the changes will be enough to keep Bush afloat through a long, and so far surprising, campaign. “Jeb is not spectacular,” said Lynn Stewart, a state assemblyman from Henderson, Nevada. “But he’s solid and steady.” Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
AP poll: Republicans want principles, not compromise
As GOP lawmakers in the House decide whether to unite around Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan as the next speaker, an Associated Press-GfK poll finds Republicans nationally prefer congressional leadership that will stand on conservative principles, not compromise — even if it leads to a government shutdown. Neither party’s supporters are particularly happy with their leaders in Congress, the poll suggests. Some things to know about public opinion on Congress and its leadership from the AP-GfK poll: ___ PRINCIPLES OVER COMPROMISE Among Republicans in the poll, 62 percent say they would prefer a new speaker who will stick with conservative principles even if doing so leads to a government shutdown. Just 37 percent prefer someone who will compromise with President Barack Obama and Democrats to pass a budget. That’s a struggle the next speaker will need to handle soon. The continuing resolution that funded the government and avoided a shutdown last month expires in December. More generally, 56 percent of Republicans say they prefer leaders from their party in Congress to stick to their principles even if it makes passing legislation difficult, while just 43 percent want leaders who will compromise with the other side. There’s a deep divide within the Republican Party on the issue of principles versus compromise. Seven in 10 conservative Republicans prefer a speaker who will stick with conservative principles even if it causes a shutdown, while less than half of moderate or liberal Republicans say the same. More than 6 in 10 conservative Republicans, but just 4 in 10 moderate to liberal ones, say they generally prefer congressional leaders to stick to their principles even if it makes it difficult to pass legislation. ___ DEMS, INDIES PREFER COMPROMISE Among all those questioned, more say they would prefer that leaders from their party in Congress compromise to pass legislation rather than stick with their principles, 60 percent to 37 percent. Also, 63 percent say they want the next speaker to be someone who will compromise to pass a budget. Democrats want their own party’s leaders to compromise with the other side rather than stick to their principles at the expense of passing legislation, 76 percent to 23 percent. A majority of independents also prefer party leaders to compromise. ___ NOT FEELING LEADERSHIP LOVE People don’t feel particularly happy with current congressional leadership of either party. Majorities say both Republican and Democratic leaders in Congress don’t represent them well. Even Democrats sizing up Democratic leaders and Republicans judging GOP leaders don’t have great feelings about how well they’re represented. Just 37 percent of Democrats say Democratic leaders in Congress represent their views extremely or very well, while 47 percent say they’re represented only moderately well and 15 percent say they’re not represented well. Among Republicans, even fewer — just 22 percent — think Republican leaders in Congress represent them very well, 45 percent moderately well, and 33 percent not well. Liberal Democrats are more likely than moderate to conservative ones to feel very well represented by Democratic leaders in Congress, 50 percent to 30 percent. There’s no such difference between conservative Republicans and moderate to liberal ones, who are about equal in their opinions that congressional Republican leaders do a mediocre job of representing them. Independents feel poorly represented by congressional leadership regardless of party. Six in 10 say leaders of each party in Congress represent them not very well or not well at all. ___ CONGRESS DEEPLY UNPOPULAR Whoever takes the helm as speaker will preside over a deeply unpopular institution. Just 16 percent of respondents approve of the job Congress is doing more generally, while 83 percent disapprove. Twenty percent of Democrats and 13 percent of Republicans approve of the job Congress is doing. ___ The AP-GfK Poll of 1,027 adults was conducted online Oct. 15 to Oct. 19, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
