Donald Trump’s goosey claims on trade, jobs
President Donald Trump is using some goosey numbers to rationalize his aggressive rhetoric on trade, disregarding strong points in U.S. competitiveness to paint a dark portrait of a world taking advantage of his country. Conversely, he’s glossing over aspects of the economy that don’t support his faulty contention that it’s the best it’s ever been. The complexities of health care for veterans are also set aside as he hails a new era in the Department of Veterans Affairs’ system. A look at some of his statements over the past week and the reality behind them: TRUMP: “Why isn’t the European Union and Canada informing the public that for years they have used massive Trade Tariffs and non-monetary Trade Barriers against the U.S. Totally unfair to our farmers, workers & companies. Take down your tariffs & barriers or we will more than match you!” — tweet Thursday. TRUMP: “Farmers have not been doing well for 15 years. Mexico, Canada, China and others have treated them unfairly. By the time I finish trade talks, that will change. Big trade barriers against U.S. farmers, and other businesses, will finally be broken. Massive trade deficits no longer!′ — tweet Monday. THE FACTS: Whatever his beef with farm trade with specific countries, he’s wrong in suggesting U.S. agriculture runs a trade deficit. The U.S. exports more food products than it imports, running a $17.4 billion surplus last year. It’s long been a bright spot in the trade picture and it’s why many U.S. farmers are worried about losing markets as Trump retreats from, renegotiates or disparages trade deals. U.S. farmers do brisk business with the three countries he complains about in the tweet, two of them under the umbrella of the North American Free Trade Agreement, which Trump is threatening to leave if it’s not recast to give the U.S. greater advantage. The U.S. exported $20.5 billion in agricultural products last year to Canada, the largest market for U.S. farmers. That made for a modest deficit of $1.8 billion. The U.S. exported $18.6 billion in farm goods to Mexico, running a deficit of $6 billion. The U.S. has a lopsided advantage with China on farm goods, in contrast to manufactured products. It sold $21 billion in agricultural products to China in 2016, for a surplus of $16.7 billion. The Agriculture Department says exports of food products have grown “steadily over the last two decades.” Trump’s unrelievedly negative view of the EU may be grounded in a substantial trade deficit with the continent, but his administration’s trade office takes a longer and more benevolent view of the relationship. “Two-way U.S.-EU trade has been roughly balanced over time,” says the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office, “and the very high levels of foreign investment accounted for by each in the other’s markets means that the transatlantic economy is arguably the most integrated on Earth.” ___ TRUMP: “The EU trade surplus with the U.S. is $151 Billion.” — tweet Thursday. THE FACTS: He’s wrong about the trade deficit with the EU. As he usually does, Trump ignored trade in services in his calculation. The U.S. is more competitive in services than in goods overall, and services are a big part of the trade equation. The U.S. saw a $153 billion trade deficit in goods with the EU last year, but a surplus in services brought the actual trade deficit with the union down to $101 billion. ___ TRUMP: “Best Economy & Jobs EVER, and much more.” — tweet Monday referring to achievement in his first 500 days in office. THE FACTS: May’s unemployment rate of 3.8 percent is not the best ever. And the economy has seen many periods of stronger growth. The lowest unemployment rate since World War II was reached in 1953, when it averaged 2.9 percent, almost a full point lower than today. The job market is certainly strong, with unemployment at an 18-year low, and if it drops another tenth of a point, it’ll be the lowest since 1969. Yet the jobless rate was at or below 4 percent for four straight years back then, from 1966 through 1969, and wages were rising more quickly. The cost of items such as college and health care was much lower then. Overall the economy has yet to show it can sustain growth in excess of 3 percent, as Trump has promised. In the 1990s boom, still the longest on record, the U.S. economy expanded at an average annual pace of 4.3 percent for five years, from 1996 through 2000. In the 1980s, growth averaged 4.6 percent annually from 1983 through 1987. While the economy has picked up from 2016, its best showing since Trump took office was 3.2 percent in last year’s third quarter. ___ TRUMP: “Separating families at the Border is the fault of bad legislation passed by the Democrats. Border Security laws should be changed but the Dems can’t get their act together! Started the Wall.” — tweet Tuesday. THE FACTS: No law mandates that parents must be separated from their children at the border, and it’s not a policy Democrats have pushed or can change alone as the minority in Congress. Children are probably being separated from the parents at the border at an accelerated rate because of a new “zero tolerance policy” being put in place by Trump’s own administration. Announced April 6 by Attorney General Jeff Sessions, the policy directs authorities to prosecute all instances of illegal border crossings, even against people with few or no previous offenses. Administration officials are quick to note that Sessions’ policy makes no mention of separating families. That is correct. But under U.S. protocol, if parents are jailed, their children are separated from them because the children aren’t charged with a crime. So while separating families might not be official U.S. policy, it is a direct consequence of Sessions’ zero-tolerance approach. According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, more than 650 children were separated from parents at the border during a two-week period in May. ___
