Bill Hightower said 1,700 families generate 80 percent of crime in Mobile, but is that true?
During AL.com’s Reckon debate on April 18, Alabama State Senator and gubernatorial candidate Bill Hightower said that in Mobile approximately “1,700 families generate 80 percent of the crime.” But is this statistic correct? “The general idea that a few people are engaged in a lot of problem behavior and criminal behavior makes a lot of sense and would be consistent with what we see with a lot of other types of crime,” Adam Lankford, an associate professor of criminology and criminal justice at the University of Alabama told AL.com. And his statement holds up; according to one study conducted by the Centre for Ethics, Law and Mental Health in 2013, “a majority of violent crimes are perpetrated by a small number of persistent violent offenders.” A more recent study by the Crime Prevention Research Center also concluded that 2 percent of counties in the nation make up 52 percent of murders throughout the nation; Mobile county was included in that statistic. The thought process is consistent with data found by criminologists. However, according to Politifact, Hightower was basing his remark on research from the Mobile County district attorney’s office which found that, “of the 65,000 students in the district, only 1,500 students were responsible for 75 to 80 percent of serious school infractions. The district attorney then cross-referenced the students with home addresses to identify 1,200 households.” Hightower’s point is compatible with available data from several sources, but he failed to correctly describe it. Crime rates in Mobile have been significantly declining over the past ten years. In 2006, there were approximately 17,000 crimes compared to only 13,407 in 2014, but according to the Mobile Police Department, crimes in the first three months of 2017 and 2018 are trending higher than the first three months of 2015 and 2016. Although crime rates overall have been trending down, the county’s violent crime rate is on the rise. Mobile County experienced a total of 61 homicides in 2016, compared to 34 homicides in 2006; and when you compare the first three months of 2017 and 2018, the number of rapes in the county are on track to hit the 120 mark this year, compared to 89 in 2016.
Jefferson, Mobile and Montgomery among 2 percent of counties that make up 51 percent of U.S murders
According to data from the Crime Prevention Research Center, 2 percent of counties in the nation make up 52 percent of murders throughout the nation. Alabama has three counties that make up part of that two percent; Jefferson, Mobile, and Montgomery. The state also had the third highest murder rate in the nation in 2016 with 407 murders out of a 4.8 million people population, giving the sate an 8.4 murder rate. According to the Alabama Law Enforcement Agency’s crime in Alabama report: In 2016 Jefferson county endured a total of 104 homicides, 78 of those taking place within the Birmingham city limits. The homicide rate was 15.69 per 100,000 people, and to put that in perspective, the national homicide rate was 5.3 per 100,000 people in 2016. Mobile county experienced a total of 61 homicides in 2016, 44 took place within Mobile city limits, and the homicide rate was 14.71 per 100,000 people. Montgomery county had the lowest number of the three, with only 31 total homicides, 30 taking place within Montgomery city limits. The county’s homicide rate was 13.76 per 100,000 people. According to the Crime Prevention Research Center: In 2014, the most recent year that a county level breakdown is available, 54 percent of counties (with 11 percent of the population) have no murders. 69 percent of counties have no more than one murder, and about 20 percent of the population. These counties account for only 4 percent of all murders in the country. The worst 1 percent of counties have 19 percent of the population and 37 percent of the murders. The worst 5 percent of counties contain 45 percent of the population and account for 68 percent of murders. As shown in figure 2, over half of murders occurred in only 2 percent of counties.” Murders actually used to be even more concentrated. From 1977 to 2000, on average 73 percent of counties in any give year had zero murders. Location is not the only factor in the concentration of murders; according to a 2013 PEW Research Center survey, gun ownership rates in rural areas were 2.11 times higher than in urban areas. In short, suburban households are 28.6 percent more likely to own guns than urban households. Most of the country has both very high gun ownership rates and zero murders. According to the data, murder isn’t a nationwide problem; and few people appreciate the large areas of the country where there are no murders. Researchers say that the problem lies within a very small set of urban areas, and the gun ownership, or lack of legal gun ownership, within those areas. To solve the problem, the Crime Prevention Research Center suggests focusing on the areas where murders are most common and doing what is necessary to reduce the amount of murders in that area. Here is the map detailing the counties in U.S. with highest murder rates:
20 percent of Alabamians have concealed carry permit — highest in the country
The national gun debate continues to divide the nation leaving many Americans feeling as though their 2nd Amendments rights may soon be on the chopping block. In response to the uncertainty, more Americans across the country have been going out and getting guns. According to a July 2017 study by the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC), nearly two million Americans obtained concealed carry permits in 2016, meaning one in every 20 citizens now has a concealed carry permit (CCP). “All states now allow concealed carry,” CPRC President John Lott Jr. said. “And they are all issuing more permits. Not surprisingly, concealed carry is much more popular in states where permits are relatively inexpensive and easy to obtain.” Which is perhaps one of the reasons why Alabama, a known red-state, has the highest number of permit owners, 20 percent, of any state. Conceal carry permits in Alabama Alabama issues concealed handgun licenses only to residents of Alabama, through the sheriff of their county of residence. While permit fees vary by county, they range from $7.50 to $30 per year. WKRG reports, “According to [NRA] data, a vast majority of counties charge $100 for a five-year permit. At least, 46 out of 67 counties do.” The state does not issue carry conceal permits to out of state residents. Alabama reciprocity maps
