Jeb Bush starting behind others and nearly from scratch in Iowa
Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush boasts blue chip donors, some of the best advisers in the campaign business and, of course, a famous political name. But when it comes to first-to-vote Iowa, he’s practically starting from scratch. The former Florida governor makes his first visit to the leadoff caucus state as a declared candidate Wednesday, where he has just three employees and has made only two visits this year. That’s far less time and resources than most of his rivals for the GOP nomination have invested in Iowa. “He has some making up to do,” said former state Rep. Renee Schulte, a Bush supporter. Asked this week if Bush was spending enough time in Iowa, Republican Gov. Terry Branstad — a cheerleader for Iowa’s outsized political influence — was telling in his answer. He spoke about someone else. “I would certainly compliment Governor Perry,” Branstad said, referring to the former Texas governor, Rick Perry. “I think he’s been here the most. And I think he’s building a good organization.” Perry has visited Iowa more than a dozen times in the past year. Bush’s aides say he can make the best use of the seven months until the caucuses by focusing more on populous areas such as swing-voting Cedar Rapids than on the sparser and more evangelical northwest. “Governor Bush is looking forward to campaigning all over Iowa in the lead-up to the caucuses. He’s all-in on the Iowa caucuses, and will campaign the right way,” said senior Bush adviser David Kochel, who is leading the early-state strategy. “He’ll go anywhere and work for every vote. He wants to earn Iowa’s support, in the caucuses as well as the general election.” It’s a break with the traditional type of caucus campaign, such as the one waged by former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum in 2012, when he visited each of Iowa’s 99 counties as part of an intense — and ultimately successful — strategy to win the state. It’s the approach Perry, who entered the 2012 campaign later and stumbled during debates, is now undertaking as part of an effort to win the state outright. With the backing of a deep-pocketed super PAC able to support him deep into the primary calendar, Bush appears less reliant on having to win Iowa. The recent cancellation of the Iowa straw poll may benefit Bush, who had planned to skip it. The straw poll forced some poor performers out of earlier campaigns; without it there may be no event to winnow the large GOP pack before the caucuses. That, in turn, could mean that a finish in the top tier — rather than an outright win — has more meaning than in the past. To be sure, Bush is hardly ignoring the state. Kochel, a Des Moines Republican now working out of Bush’s headquarters in Miami, is a veteran Iowa organizer and former adviser to Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney‘s presidential campaigns. Bush’s Iowa campaign director is Annie Kelly, who successfully ran one of the nation’s most competitive 2012 congressional campaigns in Iowa. What’s more, the Bush campaign is putting out a list of 20 elected officials and GOP activists who are endorsing him. And he has plans to talk to more GOP activists when he arrives Wednesday to headline a backyard get-together in Washington, Iowa, and later a town hall-style meeting, in Pella, both east of Des Moines. Former Iowa House Speaker Brent Siegrist, a Republican from GOP-heavy western Iowa, said he was expecting a call from Bush on Wednesday. His message to Bush? To do well will require Bush to keep showing up. “I think he could still do fairly well here, so he’s going to have to be here,” said Siegrist, who has not chosen a candidate. He said it won’t do for Bush to come to Iowa “and finish ninth.” Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Jeb Bush donors see him lay out contours of 2016 campaign
Jeb Bush‘s super PAC is raising eye-popping sums in a multipronged effort to define the former Florida governor for Republican presidential primary voters before his rivals can, donors say. The likely candidate met more than 300 of his top donors near Miami Beach’s glamorous South Beach on Sunday and Monday, and began laying out what a 2016 campaign would look like, introducing advisers and outlining issues he would stress. Ever mindful of the public’s supposed aversion to political dynasties, Bush’s team sees it as a priority to cast the brother and son of former presidents as his own man, several who attended the meeting said. “That’s why they are going to define him as a person, so people will have a reason to listen,” said Bill Kunkler, a Bush donor from Chicago who attended. “Then voters can make an informed decision.” The meeting, with a rooftop cocktail party at a luxury seaside hotel, was a way for Bush to thank his most generous contributors, who have helped him sprint through the first months of the year in fundraising as he prepared for an expected candidacy for the nomination. “We’re here to celebrate the successes, not the excesses,” said Al Hoffman, a longtime Bush family friend and veteran donor. “We’re sure to be pounded on raising excessive money. But the point is, when you raise money for a campaign, there’s never enough.” Bush or his aides would not disclose how much he has raised in the more than 60 fundraisers he’s headlined since opening the Right to Rise PAC and super PAC in January. Kunkler said the super PAC’s financial disclosure in July will be a “wowza” moment, and others have said they expect Bush to post a figure multiple times the amount collected by rivals. Bush armed his most loyal and influential supporters, who had contributed at least $25,000 to his super PAC, with information they would need to recruit 10 to 20 others each, donors said. He also introduced members of the team, such as likely campaign manager David Kochel, a strategist with deep background in Iowa who advised Mitt Romney in 2012 and 2008. One of Bush’s challenges could be to avoid the wealthy Romney’s stumbles connecting with low- and middle-income Americans in the 2012 contest. Also at the meeting, Bush, who is bilingual, held a session on outreach to Hispanics, who voted overwhelmingly for President Barack Obama in 2012. He’s traveling to Puerto Rico and headlining a Hispanic Christian leadership conference in Houston this week. On the matter of political dynasties, voter sentiment is somewhat mixed, but a recent national survey suggests Bush’s team is right to be wary. In an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll last month, 60 percent of registered voters — including 42 percent of Republicans — said Bush represents a return to policies of the past. Almost 40 percent of registered voters said they would feel more comfortable if the nominees were not a Clinton or a Bush. Hillary Rodham Clinton, married to former President Bill Clinton, is seeking the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. With the aggressive super PAC approach, Bush is at the forefront of a shift in presidential politics made possible by a 2010 Supreme Court decision allowing these organizations to raise unlimited sums from individuals and groups such as corporations and labor unions. They must report their contributions and donors, but are not held to the contribution limits placed on federal campaigns, $2,700 per donor for the primary, and $2,700 for the general election. Bush’s dozens of fundraisers frontload his super PAC financially and politically before he becomes a candidate. Once that happens, he will not be allowed to coordinate strategy with the group or directly raise money for it. When Bush announces his campaign, Hoffman said, “it will be a sprint until the finish.” Republicans familiar with his strategy say Bush is planning to use his super PAC to carry out functions typically done by campaigns, although Bush aides insist he will have enough money to run a robust candidate-driven organization as well. Republished with permission of The Associated Press.
Jeb Bush preparing to delegate many campaign tasks to super PAC
Jeb Bush is preparing to embark on an experiment in presidential politics: delegating many of the nuts-and-bolts tasks of seeking the White House to a separate political organization that can raise unlimited amounts of campaign cash. The concept, in development for months as the former Florida governor has raised tens of millions of dollars for his Right to Rise super PAC, would endow that organization not just with advertising on Bush’s behalf, but with many of the duties typically conducted by a campaign. Should Bush move ahead as his team intends, it is possible that for the first time a super PAC created to support a single candidate would spend more than the candidate’s campaign itself — at least through the primaries. Some of Bush’s donors believe that to be more than likely. The architects of the plan believe the super PAC’s ability to legally raise unlimited amounts of money outweighs its primary disadvantage, that it cannot legally coordinate its actions with Bush or his would-be campaign staff. “Nothing like this has been done before,” said David Keating, president of the Center for Competitive Politics, which opposes limits on campaign finance donations. “It will take a high level of discipline to do it.” The exact design of the strategy remains fluid as Bush approaches an announcement of his intention to run for the Republican nomination in 2016. But at its center is the idea of placing Right to Rise in charge of the brunt of the biggest expense of electing Bush: television advertising and direct mail. Right to Rise could also break into new areas for a candidate-specific super PAC, such as data gathering, highly individualized online advertising and running phone banks. Also on the table is tasking the super PAC with crucial campaign endgame strategies: the operation to get out the vote and efforts to maximize absentee and early voting on Bush’s behalf. The campaign itself would still handle those things that require Bush’s direct involvement, such as candidate travel. It also would still pay for advertising, conduct polling and collect voter data. But the goal is for the campaign to be a streamlined operation that frees Bush to spend less time than in past campaigns raising money, and as much time as possible meeting voters. Bush’s plans were described to The Associated Press by two Republicans and several Bush donors familiar with the plan, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the former Florida governor has not yet announced his candidacy. “This isn’t the product of some genius thinking,” said a Republican familiar with the strategy. “This is the natural progression of the rules as they are set out by the FEC.” Bush spokeswoman Kristy Campbell said: “Any speculation on how a potential campaign would be structured, if he were to move forward, is premature at this time.” The strategy aims to take maximum advantage of the new world of campaign finance created by a pair of 2010 Supreme Court decisions and counts on the Federal Election Commission to remain a passive regulator with little willingness to confront those pushing the envelope of the law. One reason Bush’s aides are comfortable with the strategy is because Mike Murphy, Bush’s longtime political confidant, would probably run the super PAC once Bush enters the race. Meanwhile, David Kochel, a former top adviser to Mitt Romney‘s campaigns and an ally of Bush senior adviser Sally Bradshaw, would probably be the pick to lead Bush’s official campaign. “Every campaign is going to carefully listen to the lawyers as to what is the best way to allocate their resources and how to maximize them,” said Al Cardenas, former chairman of the American Conservative Union and a Bush adviser. “Nobody wants to relinquish any advantage.” For Bush, the potential benefits are enormous. Campaigns can raise only $2,700 per donor for the primary and $2,700 for the general election. But super PACs are able to raise unlimited cash from individuals, corporations and groups such as labor unions. In theory, that means a small group of wealthy Bush supporters could pay for much of the work of electing him by writing massive checks to the super PAC. Bush would begin a White House bid with confidence that he will have the money behind him to make a deep run into the primaries, even if he should stumble early and spook small-dollar donors, starving his own campaign of the money it needs to carry on. Presidential candidates in recent elections have also spent several hours each day privately courting donors. This approach would not eliminate that burden for Bush, but would reduce it. “The idea of a super PAC doing more … means the candidate has to spend less time raising money and can spend more time campaigning,” said longtime Mitt Romney adviser Ron Kaufman, who supports Bush. The main limitation on super PACs is that they cannot coordinate their activities with a campaign. The risk for Bush is that his super PAC will not have access to the candidate and his senior strategists to make pivotal decisions about how to spend the massive amount of money it will take to win the Republican nomination and, if successful, secure the 270 electoral votes he will need to follow his father and brother into the White House. “The one thing you give away when you do that is control,” Kaufman said. Bush will also be dogged by advocates of campaign finance regulation. The Campaign Legal Center, which supports aggressive regulation of money and politics, has already complained to the FEC that Bush is currently flouting the law by raising money for his super PAC while acting like a candidate for president. Others are on guard, too. “In our view, we are headed for an epic national scandal,” said Fred Wertheimer, president of the pro-regulation group Democracy 21. “We intend to carefully and closely monitor all the candidates and their super PACs, because they will eventually provide numerous examples of violations.” All of the major candidates for president
