Alabama real estate mogul Stan Pate spearheads international anti-Trump effort
Alabama real estate mogul and millionaire Stan Pate has long made waves for his no-holds-barred approach to political speech, both in the state and outside of it. Before this latest effort, his most famous antic was paying for a plane to fly a banner with the words “Impeach corrupt Alabama Governor Bob Riley” at the 2009 National Championship game in Pasadena, California, where the Alabama Crimson Tide took on the Texas Longhorns. But Pate’s latest undertaking, in hopes of stymying the presidential aspirations of fellow real estate developer Donald Trump, goes beyond the borders of Alabama. Heck, it extends beyond the United States. Last week a political action committee led by Pate ran full-page satirical ads in Korean and Mexican newspapers, attempting to drum up anti-Trump sentiment in some of the United States’ most frequent trading partners. Pate said swaying American voters wasn’t the goal in his ads, which depicted invoices for a wall and nuclear bombs in Mexico and Korea, respectively. Instead, he hopes they’ll talk to their family and friends who have immigrated to the United States and “sound the alarm” about the possibility of a Trump presidency. “Hopefully they begin to communicate and certainly begin a discussion about this wall,” Pate told NBC News. Pate said his nontraditional tactics are what it’s going to take to get the attention on the nation, and the world. “Getting the public’s attention is not easy,” explained Pate. “I want to make sure that I do everything that I can to bring the public’s attention that there are choices here.” While Pate’s efforts may win points for creativity, there is evidence all the anti-Trump efforts may be for naught. According to a recent report by The Associated Press, it now looks unlikely the #NeverTrump movement will succeed at the Republican National Convention later this month. Numbers are stacked against the insurgents. Trump triumphed in the vast majority of this year’s primaries and caucuses, giving him 1,542 delegates, according to The Associated Press. That’s well above the 1,237 needed to clinch the nomination. Now, it’s true those delegates can vote however they wish during convention battles to change the rules, so delegates pledged to a candidate could back anyone they want. And you can count on such defections, because some delegates representing Trump actually prefer his defeated rival, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, or others. But Trump still has a big numerical advantage. According to an informal count by one party insider, Trump can rely on a solid 900 delegates, compared to a combined 650 for Trump opponents plus delegates backing Cruz or other candidates. That leaves over 900 remaining delegates. Trump would need only about a third of them to prevail. And don’t forget, many delegates are party regulars inclined to want a gathering that’s peaceful, not a GOP civil war on prime-time TV. The anti-Trump forces have said they have more than 400 delegate supporters. Whether the Dump Trump movement gains any traction in the few remaining weeks before the convention remains to be seen, but it can certainly be said that they’re pulling out all the stops to make it happen.
Want to be a delegate to the GOP convention? It’s not easy
So, you want to be a delegate to the Republican National Convention? You could have a rare opportunity to help make history, if none of the Republican presidential candidates reaches the target 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination on the first ballot. And maybe — just maybe — billionaire businessman Donald Trump will take you for a spin on Trump Force One. Now, if you’re looking to jump on the bandwagon today, the bad news is it’s probably too late. Most state parties haven’t picked their delegates yet, but in general, they’re looking for people who have demonstrated loyalty by investing time and money helping to elect Republican candidates. “It’s always helpful to show that you care about the party and its work if you want the party to make you a delegate,” said Ben Ginsberg, a longtime Republican lawyer and an expert on the nominating process. “Suppose that your passion in life is helping out on the local level with political campaigns or with party work,” he said. “This is the reward at the end of a four-year rainbow.” It’s definitely an insider’s game, which is one reason that Trump appears to be struggling to get his supporters selected as delegates, even though he’s won the most primaries. Look at North Dakota, for example. The state didn’t hold a primary this year. Instead, the state GOP selected 25 delegates at its state convention last weekend. The state’s three Republican National Committee members will also be delegates in the July convention. Because North Dakota didn’t hold a primary, its delegates are free to support the candidate of their choice, regardless of who wins the popular vote. The GOP calls them “unbound.” There will be between 150 and 200 unbound delegates at the convention. If Texas Sen. Ted Cruz can block Trump from clinching the nomination on the first ballot, these unbound delegates are going to be the most popular people in Cleveland. But in North Dakota, you’ve got to pay your dues if you want to be a delegate. Among the questions on the delegate application: How much time have you volunteered working for the North Dakota GOP, and how much money have you donated? As a result, most of the delegates are past or present elected officials or party workers. Ten of the delegates told The Associated Press that they support Cruz. None of them has publicly endorsed Trump. “It really reeks of inside politics and that is upsetting a lot of people,” said Gary Emineth, a Bismarck businessman and former chairman of the state GOP party. Despite his own lengthy history with the party, Emineth said the process should be more open to outsiders, grassroots enthusiasts who bring energy to the party. In about a dozen states, the candidates pick their delegates. Among them is California, which has 172 delegates, plus alternates. If you want to be a delegate in California, it would be smart to profess your loyalty to one of the campaigns because they are aggressively vetting potential delegates — a total of more than 300 people for each candidate, including alternates. In most states, however, the campaigns have no official role in selecting delegates. That could be a problem for Trump, who could end up with delegates who are required to vote for him on the first ballot, but can switch to someone else on subsequent ballots should they desire. Most of these delegates are selected at state and congressional district conventions, where Cruz and his supporters have done a good job rounding up supporters. The process, however, can be complicated, with rules and requirements varying from state to state. In South Carolina, you can’t be a national delegate unless you served as one at the state or congressional district convention. In Michigan, most of the delegates at the state convention — the people who will select the national delegates — had to be elected as precinct delegates in the 2014 primary. In states like Pennsylvania and Illinois, voters elect delegates on the primary ballot. In Illinois’ March 15 primary, the ballot listed each delegate along with the presidential candidate they support. Voters won’t get that kind of help in Pennsylvania’s primary April 26. The ballot will simply list delegate candidates, with no information about whom they support for president. There isn’t much campaigning so a lot of elected officials win simply on name recognition. If you want to be a delegate in Kentucky, it might help to make friends with people who are on the nominating committees that put together slates of national delegates. These slates are voted on at state and congressional district conventions. If the convention rejects the slate, the committee puts together a new slate. “This process shall continue indefinitely until a slate is approved by the state convention,” according to GOP rules in Kentucky. In states where party insiders pick the delegates, smart presidential campaigns make friends with local officials who can help round up supporters. “You can tap into the political networks of people who are endorsing you. They know the state and they can help,” said Mark Stephenson, a Republican strategist who ran analytics and delegate strategy for Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker‘s campaign. “Endorsements matter at that level. I think that’s why you see Cruz’s team having that local success, which builds momentum statewide.” Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Complex, yet fascinating: A primer on Alabama’s March presidential primary
With the 2016 election less than a year away, and the first caucuses within the next 90 days, now is a good time for a review of what could be an interesting, yet complex, turn of events. Much of the situation will depend on the state of the Republican field come March 1. Here is a primer of Alabama’s primary delegation process: Alabama’s Presidential Preference Primary is March 1, 2016, and does not require voters to declare a party preference when registering to vote. The Yellowhammer State has an open primary, meaning any registered voter can vote in the primary for any party. Voters choose the primary in which to vote, and they are not required to be a party member in order to vote. According to the state Department of Elections, requirements to vote in Alabama is as follows: each applicant is a citizen of the United States; is an Alabama resident; a minimum of 18 years old on or before Election Day; is not barred from voting by a disqualifying felony conviction, and has not been declared mentally incompetent by a court. The state does not permit online voter registration, early voting or “no excuse” absentee voting. Since 2014, to cast a ballot in Alabama requires valid photo identification at the polls. Alabama’s delegation is 26 at-large (numbered At-Large #1, At-Large #2, etc.), 21-Congressional District and three automatic (“unbound”) for 50 total, which will be allocated proportionally, as a what is known as winner-take-most. The threshold for any candidate to qualify for delegates is 20 percent, both statewide and within each congressional district. This follows Republican National Committee rules stating elections held before March 15 will be assigned proportionately. Some conservatives believe the rule was designed to help well-funded candidates (establishment favorites) who are in the race for the long term, and is an obstacle for grassroots candidates desperate for a primary win to rally supporters (and funds). Delegates are bound to their qualifying presidential candidates until either a candidate withdraws from the race for the Republican Party nomination and releases the delegates or if – by a two-thirds vote – the total number of delegates bound to that candidate become “unbound” at the national convention. That closes the door to any potential abuse but allows just enough for delegates to wiggle out of a pledge, in a scenario with multiple ballots/votes to determine the nominee at the convention. Enforcement of original pledges is left to the head of the Alabama delegation and/or the RNC secretary. While the system is designed to release delegates if a battle on the convention floor occurs, there is no mention of a specific number of ballots taken before a delegate can be released. Compared to four years ago, there are no other substantive rule changes in Alabama elections, but unlike other early primary states – New Hampshire, for one – proportional allocation of Alabama delegates come from two different groups: at-large statewide and congressional district delegates. To get either type, candidates must meet the 20 percent threshold, twice the limit set in New Hampshire. If a single candidate receives a majority of the Alabama’s vote, then he or she will receive all 26 at-large delegates. If a candidate receives a simple majority in any Alabama Congressional District, he or she will win three of the district’s delegates. The Alabama GOP Delegate Information Process datasheet outlines that a delegate must vote for the candidate they pledged on their qualifying form. If the candidate releases his delegates/alternates, then they can vote for a different person. As it stands, with such a large field of Republican presidential candidates – now standing at 15 – the chances are unlikely that a single candidate will receive a majority either statewide or in congressional districts. However, there is a possibility that the southern GOP contest – the so-called “SEC Primary” – will be a game changer in the 2016 presidential race. There is a likelihood the field will narrow after the early primary states of New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. On the other hand, with a big group of candidates remaining March 1, it will substantially limit the probability of the rise of a consensus candidate. The bottom line: it might be a good bet that one person does not emerge on Super Tuesday with all 47 Alabama delegates. That said, there is a path (albeit a backdoor one) for a candidate to receive a majority of Alabama delegates, even in a large field. One only needs to meet the 20-percent threshold, either statewide or within a congressional district. If that is the case, where a particular candidate meets the 20 percent bar statewide, then they will control half (+1) of delegates, regardless of the results in the congressional districts. Understandably, Alabama’s allotment system has the potential to cause a considerable amount of political turmoil, overshadowing what should be a somewhat organized process. With a smaller number of candidates, though, the odds of one person picking up 20 percent of the vote increases. And as that number reaches two – it becomes almost assured that one (or the other) will meet the 50 percent threshold, receiving all delegates. Another case is when the vote triggers a potential winner-take-most scenario. In that situation, there would be a 20 percent bar for one and a 50 percent threshold for the other. With the current state of the race, there is a likelihood that more than one candidate will reach the 20 percent, thereby qualifying for delegates. Here is where math comes in. Since it is statistically impossible for a field of over five viable candidates to receive more than 20 percent each, the overall effect is somewhat limiting. Alabama’s delegate allocation system promotes narrowing the field of contenders – or at least accelerating the winnowing already taking place before March 1. Therefore, if (or when) these conditions are met, 26 at-large delegates will be spread out among candidates who get at least 20 percent of the vote. As for
Party insiders give Hillary Clinton early, commanding delegate edge
Hillary Rodham Clinton has locked up public support from half of the Democratic insiders who cast ballots at the party’s national convention, giving her a commanding advantage over her rivals for the party’s presidential nomination. Clinton’s margin over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley is striking. Not only is it big, but it comes more than two months before primary voters head to the polls — an early point in the race for so many of the people known as superdelegates to publicly back a candidate. “She has the experience necessary not only to lead this country, she has experience politically that I think will help her through a tough campaign,” said Unzell Kelley, a county commissioner from Alabama. “I think she’s learned from her previous campaign,” he said. “She’s learned what to do, what to say, what not to say — which just adds to her electability.” The Associated Press contacted all 712 superdelegates in the past two weeks, and heard back from more than 80 percent. They were asked which candidate they plan to support at the convention next summer. The results: Clinton: 359. Sanders: 8. O’Malley: 2. Uncommitted: 210. The 712 superdelegates make up about 30 percent of the 2,382 delegates needed to clinch the Democratic nomination. That means that more than two months before voting starts, Clinton already has 15 percent of the delegates she needs. That sizable lead reflects Clinton’s advantage among the Democratic Party establishment, an edge that has helped the 2016 front-runner build a massive campaign organization, hire top staff and win coveted local endorsements. Superdelegates are convention delegates who can support the candidate of their choice, regardless of who voters choose in the primaries and caucuses. They are members of Congress and other elected officials, party leaders and members of the Democratic National Committee. Clinton is leading most preference polls in the race for the Democratic nomination, most by a wide margin. Sanders has made some inroads in New Hampshire, which holds the first presidential primary, and continues to attract huge crowds with his populist message about income inequality. But Sanders has only recently started saying he’s a Democrat after a decades-long career in politics as an independent. While he’s met with and usually voted with Democrats in the Senate, he calls himself a democratic socialist. “We recognize Secretary Clinton has enormous support based on many years working with and on behalf of many party leaders in the Democratic Party,” said Tad Devine, a senior adviser to the Sanders campaign. “But Sen. Sanders will prove to be the strongest candidate, with his ability to coalesce and bring young people to the polls the way that Barack Obama did.” “The best way to win support from superdelegates is to win support from voters,” added Devine, a longtime expert on the Democrats’ nominating process. The Clinton campaign has been working for months to secure endorsements from superdelegates, part of a strategy to avoid repeating the mistakes that cost her the Democratic nomination eight years ago. In 2008, Clinton hinged her campaign on an early knockout blow on Super Tuesday, while Obama’s staff had devised a strategy to accumulate delegates well into the spring. This time around, Clinton has hired Obama’s top delegate strategist from 2008, a lawyer named Jeff Berman, an expert on the party’s arcane rules for nominating a candidate for president. Clinton’s increased focus on winning delegates has paid off, putting her way ahead of where she was at this time eight years ago. In December 2007, Clinton had public endorsements from 169 superdelegates, according to an AP survey. At the time, Obama had 63 and a handful of other candidates had commitments as well from the smaller fraction of superdelegates willing to commit to a candidate. “Our campaign is working hard to earn the support of every caucus goer, primary voter and grass roots and grasstop leaders,” said Clinton campaign spokesman Jesse Ferguson. “Since day one we have not taken this nomination for granted and that will not change.” Some superdelegates supporting Clinton said they don’t think Sanders is electable, especially because of his embrace of socialism. But few openly criticized Sanders and a handful endorsed him. “I’ve heard him talk about many subjects and I can’t say there is anything I disagree with,” said Chad Nodland, a DNC member from North Dakota who is backing Sanders. However, Nodland added, if Clinton is the party’s nominee, “I will knock on doors for her. There are just more issues I agree with Bernie.” Some superdelegates said they were unwilling to publicly commit to candidates before voters have a say, out of concern that they will be seen as undemocratic. A few said they have concerns about Clinton, who has been dogged about her use of a private email account and server while serving as secretary of state. “If it boils down to anything I’m not sure about the trust factor,” said Danica Oparnica, a DNC member from Arizona. “She has been known to tell some outright lies and I can’t tolerate that.” Still others said they were won over by Clinton’s 11 hours of testimony before a GOP-led committee investigating the attack on a U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya. Clinton’s testimony won widespread praise as House Republicans struggled to trip her up. “I don’t think that there’s any candidate right now, Democrat or Republican, that could actually face up to that and come out with people shaking their heads and saying, ‘That is one bright, intelligent person,’” said California Democratic Rep. Tony Cardenas. Republished with permission of The Associated Press.
