Walt Maddox wants to increase voter participation by automatic voter registration, early voting
Tuscaloosa Mayor and Democratic candidate for Governor Walt Maddox has announced a new plan to help increase voter participation across the Yellowhammer State: he wants automatic voter registration and early voting. “Voting is the most important way a citizen contributes to democracy, so we should strengthen Alabama by doing everything we can to improve voter participation,” Maddox said. “Considering Alabama’s dismal rate of voter registration, low turnout of those who are registered, and the fact that the winner only gets a little more than half the votes in any given race, the truth is that only about 10 percent of our state’s population will actually decide who our state’s next leaders will be,” he continued. “We’re doing what we can to get out the vote on November 6th, but for elections in years to follow we need more forward looking ways to improve citizen participation.” Automatic voter registration According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, automatic voter registration has been approved by 13 other states and D.C. Essentially, through the aid of a state-based agency, typically the state license offices, all voting-eligible, non-felon citizens become automatically registered to vote through interating with said office. “By implementing automatic registration for citizens when they turn eighteen, we assure that young adults hit the ground running in meeting their civic responsibility to participate in elections,” Maddox explained. “This would give every eligible individual the registered voter status his or her citizenship should earn automatically.” Early voting In the United States, only 13 states that do not have some form of early voting and Alabama is one of those states. Maddox wants to change that to allow qualified voters to cast their ballot ahead of Election Day. “We must also join the majority of states and implement early voting. The idea of a single twelve hour period in which we vote for the state’s most important offices is outdated and counterproductive,” explained Maddox. “We can debate whether it should be a period of one week or one month leading up to Election Day – the average is around 20 days – but what’s not debatable is that early voting is proven to increase voter turnout.” Maddox did not specify whether he’d like to see early voting done by mail-in ballot or early-voting sites. Alabama does have absentee voting available for those unable to make it to the polls on Election Day. Maddox faces off against incumbent Gov. Kay Ivey on Tuesday, Nov. 6.
FBI news too late to sway millions of early voters
Donald Trump‘s supporters may hope that last week’s FBI revelation about the Hillary Clinton email investigation might give the Republican’s campaign a boost. But it’s already too late for Trump to win over around a fifth of American voters, including many of the most coveted ones: those in battleground states. Tens of millions of voters had already cast ballots before news broke Friday that the FBI was examining newly discovered emails that might be pertinent to the dormant investigation of Clinton’s use of a private email server. In critical states such as Florida, Nevada and Colorado, one-third or more of the expected ballots have already been cast. The breakdown of those voters by party affiliation, race and other factors points to an advantage for Clinton. That will make it more difficult for Trump to capitalize on the FBI news. Overall, early voting – by mail and at polling stations – is underway in 37 states. More than 23 million votes have been cast, far higher than the rate in 2012, according to Associated Press data. That represents nearly 20 percent of the total votes expected nationwide, if turnout is similar to 2012. In all, more than 46 million people – or as much as 40 percent of the electorate – are expected to vote before Election Day, Nov. 8. A look at voting so far in key states: — FLORIDA More than 3.7 million early ballots have been cast, or nearly half the total votes cast in Florida in 2012. Democratic ballots are now virtually tied with those cast by registered Republicans, each with about 40 percent. Democrats have kept it close during mail balloting, when Republicans historically have done better. GOP analysts say Democrats now hold the advantage because the latter party typically runs up big advantages during early in-person voting, which began last week. Barack Obama won the state in 2008 and 2012. It’s a must-win state for Trump. — NORTH CAROLINA At least 1.6 million votes have been cast, or more than one-third of total ballots in 2012. Democratic ballots lead, 44 percent to 31 percent. Democrats had been running ahead of the 2012 pace until last week, when they dipped below 2012 levels. But that may be because fewer polling places were open in the first week of in-person voting compared with 2012. More polling locations have since opened and Democrats are starting to make up ground. Republicans remain slightly ahead of 2012 levels. Republican Mitt Romney won the state in 2012 by 92,000 votes. It’s another state Trump can’t afford to lose. — NEVADA More than 457,000 residents have voted, nearly half the total 1 million votes cast in 2012. Democratic ballots are currently ahead, 44 percent to 36 percent. That’s similar to the lead Democrats held at this point in 2012, when Obama won the state by 6 percentage points. — COLORADO At least 866,000 people have voted, or roughly one-third the total votes in 2012. Democratic ballots lead, 38 percent to 35 percent. That’s a change from this point in 2012, when Republicans were slightly ahead in ballots cast. Obama won the state in 2012 by 5 percentage points. — IOWA More than 398,000 ballots have been cast, or about one-fourth the total ballots in 2012. Democratic ballots are ahead, 45 percent to 34 percent. Democrats have been running further behind compared to 2012 levels, although there were indications of some Democratic momentum before Friday’s FBI news. The percentage breakdown in ballots cast by party is generally similar to 2012, when Obama won the state based on his strength in the early vote. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Early voting: More good signs for Hillary Clinton in key states
The millions of votes that have been cast already in the U.S. presidential election point to an advantage for Hillary Clinton in critical battleground states, as well as signs of strength in traditionally Republican territory. The strong early-voting turnout by those likely to support Clinton – registered Democrats, minorities, and young people among others – could leave Donald Trump with virtually no path to the 270 electoral votes needed for victory. Clinton is showing strength in Florida and North Carolina, both must-win states for Trump, as well as the battleground states of Nevada, Colorado and Arizona. There are even favorable signs for Clinton in Republican-leaning Utah and Texas. “It’s going to be a very tall order for Trump to win,” said Michael McDonald, a University of Florida professor who specializes in election turnout. Other analysts also point to a strong finish for Clinton based on the early vote. Early voting, via mail or in-person, is underway in 37 states. More than 15.5 million votes have been cast, far higher than the rate in 2012, according to Associated Press data. In all, more than 46 million people -or as much as 40 percent of the electorate – are expected to vote before Election Day, Nov. 8. A look at the latest trends: — POSITIVE SIGNS FOR CLINTON IN NORTH CAROLINA, FLORIDA The Clinton campaign describes both North Carolina and Florida as “checkmate” states. Trump probably can’t win if he loses either. After trailing in mail ballots, Democrats surged ahead of Republicans in North Carolina ballots cast after the start of in-person early voting last week. Democrats currently lead in ballots submitted, 46 percent to 29 percent. In-person voting is off to a slower start for both Democrats and Republicans compared to 2012, when Republican Mitt Romney narrowly won the state. But many Democratic-leaning counties reduced the number of polling stations in the first week, a likely factor in the decline. Several of those counties are opening more stations this week. In Florida, more than 2.4 million voters have already returned ballots. In-person voting began Monday, and Democrats have pulled virtually even with Republicans, at 41 percent each. That’s a much faster rate of catch-up than in 2012 and 2008, when Barack Obama won the state. This year’s numbers are troubling for Republicans. “If current early vote trends hold, it’s a real possibility that Clinton can sweep a majority of swing states including Florida,” said Scott Tranter, co-founder of the Republican data analytics firm Optimus. — LATINOS, YOUNG PEOPLE BUOY DEMOCRATS IN WEST Once Republican states, Nevada, Arizona and Colorado are in play for Democrats. All are crucial for Trump. Overall ballots in Nevada are down but the Democratic lead widened after the start of in-person voting last week. Democrats lead in returned ballots, 45 percent to 36 percent. Ballots from older white voters declined significantly while those from Hispanics and Asian-Americans rose. Nearly 70 percent of all Nevada ballots were cast early in 2012; Obama won the state by 6 percentage points. Early voting is surging in Arizona, normally a Republican state but one that Clinton has targeted. More than 616,000 ballots have been cast and Democrats are about even with Republicans, 37 percent to 38 percent. Another 25 percent were independent or unknown. At this point in 2012, Republicans led by more than 7 percentage points. Ballots rose in Arizona especially among younger adults and Latinos. In Colorado, where early voting has been by mail, Democrats led 39 percent to 34 percent among the 572,000 ballots returned. In 2012, Democrats trailed Republicans at this point by nearly 10 percentage points. Since then, registered Democrats have surpassed Republicans in the state. — EARLY SOFTNESS FOR TRUMP IN UTAH, TEXAS The trends out West may bode well for Democrats in two Republican strongholds. In Utah, overall ballots are up from 2012, driven by faster gains among voters ages 22 to 49, according to Catalist , a Democratic analytical firm. Republicans barely led in total ballots cast compared to independents, 38.6 percent to 38.5 percent. That could mean that Evan McMullin, a third-party candidate, is drawing support from Republicans unhappy with Trump. Democrats still trail at 19.4 percent, but they’re in an improved position from 2012, when Republicans held a 58 percent to 13 percent lead. Texas began in-person voting Monday. More than 1.3 million ballots were cast as of Wednesday, based on reports from the top 15 counties, a 50 percent increase. The state did not provide breakdowns by party. The Clinton campaign believes higher turnout, especially among Latinos, could give it an edge. — CAN WHITE SUPPORT HELP TRUMP? Boosted by white voters, Trump may still hold an edge in Ohio, Iowa and Georgia – states that still won’t be enough for him to garner the presidency without multiple come-from-behind wins in Democratic-leaning states. In Ohio, the heavily Democratic counties of Cuyahoga and Franklin continue to show double-digit declines in ballot requests compared to 2012. The state does not break down ballots by party affiliation. By race, voter modeling by Catalist found the white share of Ohio ballot requests was up to 91 percent from 87 percent. The black share declined to 7 percent from 10 percent. Democrats lead early ballot requests in Iowa, 43 percent to 35 percent. But that lead is narrower than 2012, when Democrats held an advantage of 14 percentage points. Obama ultimately won the state by 5 percentage points. And in Georgia, which does not report party affiliation, ballots submitted are up from 2012, but mostly among whites. The white share of ballots rose a percentage point to 66 percent. The black share fell to 31 percent from 34 percent, according to Catalist. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Early voting offers positive signs in key states for Hillary Clinton
Advance voting shows positive signs for Hillary Clinton in two states that could help her lock up the presidency, North Carolina and Florida, as the election enters a critical, final stretch. There are encouraging signs for Donald Trump in Ohio. That’s a vital state for the Republican presidential nominee, but a victory there would be only one of many steps he would need to win. The latest data, representing at least 758,000 ballots cast – and millions more requested – highlight Trump’s difficult path to the White House. And these numbers may understate his problems: The figures don’t yet reflect any voter response to the recording released last Friday of Trump making crude remarks about women. Even if Trump can capture two states he’s targeted – Pennsylvania and Ohio – he would need to pull off major upsets in multiple Democratic-leaning states to reach the 270 electoral votes in the state-by-state contest for the presidency. If Clinton picks up states Republicans won in 2012, Trump’s task becomes harder. In a statement, the Republican National Committee, which provides much of the get-out-the-vote effort for Trump as well as congressional candidates, said it remained confident its “significant and early investment” will put the party in a strong position. But Kevin Madden, a Republican strategist who worked on past presidential campaigns, sees the Democrats with the advantage. Madden cited the Clinton campaign’s especially heavy investment in data analytics and getting supporters to vote. “For Clinton, it may be now starting to pay its dividends,” he said. Advance voting has surged nationally as states try to boost turnout. Early voting can be done by mail or in voting booths that open before the Nov. 8 Election Day. More than 45 million people are expected to vote early, with preliminary data compiled by The Associated Press suggesting that advance voting could reach 40 percent of all votes nationally. While Democrats tend to do better in early voting, Republicans usually post an initial lead with mail-in ballots before Democrats surpass them when most in-person voting begins in mid- to late October. In North Carolina, a must-win state for Trump, early voters typically make up 60 percent of total ballots. At least 141,000 have been requested and 31,000 have been returned, according to AP data. By party, Republicans had a slight edge over Democrats in ballots returned, 38 percent to 37 percent, or 300 ballots. At this point in 2012, Republicans had posted a significant 2-to-1 lead, boosted by older white voters. Republican Mitt Romney narrowly won the state. So far in 2016, white votes are down by more than one-third while the number of black voters, who tend to favor Democrats, slipped lower. In-person voting, critical for Clinton, begins in the state next Thursday. Democrats are stepping up outreach in North Carolina and will begin launching “souls to the polls” programs on Oct. 23, taking church attendees to vote immediately after Sunday services. Popular among African-Americans, “souls to the polls” played a substantial role in boosting Democratic turnout and record shares of black voting for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. In Florida, a record 2.9 million people have requested ballots, or more than one-third of the total voters in 2012. Republicans are running ahead in ballot requests, 41 percent to 38 percent. But that reflects a narrowing gap. Two weeks ago, Republicans led by 5 percentage points, as state Democrats stepped up efforts to boost mail-in balloting among blacks and Hispanics. In the last week, new ballot requests from Democrats outnumbered those from Republicans by nearly 2-to-1, according to data analyzed for the AP by Catalist, a Democratic firm that helped run data operations for Obama’s 2008 race. A change in Florida laws is likely partly responsible for the increase in ballot requests – those who voted in 2014 were able to automatically receive ballots this year. It’s a much better initial position for Democrats compared to 2008, the most recent data available. At that time, Republicans held a much bigger lead in ballot requests, 50 percent to 32 percent. Obama won the state by 2.8 percentage points. Still, Trump may be holding steady elsewhere, such as Ohio. After a record pace for weeks, the number of ballot requests fell 2.6 percent from a similar period in 2012. The state does not provide breakdowns by party registration, but data compiled by Michael McDonald, a University of Florida professor who runs the U.S. Elections Project, show bigger declines in requests in the heavily Democratic counties of Cuyahoga and Franklin. By race, voter modeling by Catalist for the AP found the share of Ohio ballot requests by white voters was up, to 91 percent from 89 percent. The black share declined from 9 percent to 7 percent. Early voting started a week later for Ohio in 2016 after the Supreme Court last month declined to restore the state’s “Golden Week,” a period when voters could register and vote at the same time. That period was popular among black voters. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Early voting surge benefits Hillary Clinton
More people are seeking or casting early ballots in the critical states of North Carolina and Florida than at this point in 2012, with Hillary Clinton the likely beneficiary, as early voting shows signs of surging nationwide. Clinton may also benefit from an increase in ballot requests in Georgia, a traditionally Republican state where Democrats have made inroads. But Donald Trump is showing signs of strength in Iowa and parts of Maine, states won by Barack Obama in the last two presidential elections. The latest snapshot of ballot data offers a glimpse into a key question: How much of a vote advantage can Clinton run up before Nov. 8, when more Republicans tend to vote? There are two types of early voting: mailing in ballots and voting in-person before election day. Traditionally, Republicans have done better initially with early mail-in ballots, but Democrats surpass them once in-person voting begins. While the ballot sample to date remains small, Clinton so far is hitting guideposts in several battleground states compared to 2008 and 2012. Though preliminary, data compiled by The Associated Press suggest that advance voting could reach 40 percent of all votes cast nationally – up from 35 percent in 2012. It may also indicate a higher overall turnout in an election that has generated enormous public interest despite – or because of – the unpopularity of both major party candidates. In Ohio, nearly 806,000 voters had submitted absentee ballot applications. That’s up from nearly 723,000 during a similar period in 2012, when a record 1.87 million early ballots ultimately were cast by mail and in person. In Greensboro, North Carolina, Brandon Starkes, 28, cited the state’s unsuccessful bid to impose a voter ID law in his decision to vote early. The law was struck down as racially discriminatory. “I want to make sure I don’t have to deal with issues at the polls on Election Day,” he said. Starkes plans to vote for Clinton. Voting ahead of Election Day has been a growing phenomenon in the United States, designed to make it easier for people to participate in the democratic process. Absentee voting long has been a fixture in elections, and the trend toward greater early-voting has picked up steam, as increasing numbers of states have approved changes in election laws to permit it. This electoral culture change reflects not only interest in voter participation but also the changing, more mobile lifestyle of Americans. In-person early voting begins Thursday in Iowa, while Florida, Arizona and New Hampshire mail out ballots beginning early next month. In North Carolina, a must-win state for Trump, more than 69,150 ballots have been requested and 8,541 have been returned, according to AP data. That’s up from 8,326 ballots returned during a similar period in 2012. By party, Democrats made up 40 percent of the ballots returned compared to 35 percent for Republicans. At this point in 2012, Republicans had opened a wide lead over Democrats in returned ballots, 49 percent to 32 percent, leading to Mitt Romney‘s narrow win that state. While Romney was boosted by older whites who voted early by mail, white voters so far have been down this year, to 82 percent from 86 percent of submitted ballots. Black voters, more likely to cast ballots in person, were higher at 12 percent. “Voters appear to be listening and changing behavior in reaction to changes in laws,” said Michael McDonald, a University of Florida professor who runs the U.S. Election Project. Florida doesn’t start absentee balloting until Tuesday, but already a record 2.5 million voters have requested ballots. Republicans are ahead in ballot requests, 43 percent to 38 percent. That’s a much narrower gap than in 2008, the most recent in which comparable data was available. At that time, the Republicans held a solid lead in requests, 51 percent to 32 percent, according to data analyzed for the AP by Catalist, a Democratic firm that helped run data operations for Obama’s 2008 race. Obama won the state by 2.8 percentage points. The 2016 improvement can’t be wholly attributed to fresh Democratic enthusiasm. A change in Florida’s laws meant that voters in 2014 who requested absentee ballots could automatically receive them this year. Still, Democrats welcomed early gains, saying it will free them to target more undecided voters. Elsewhere, Republicans showed promise. In Iowa, Democratic requests for ballots continued to outpace Republicans, 63,880 to 24,700. Despite the 3 to 1 advantage, that’s a drop from 2012, when Democrats at this point led 119,318 to 24,909. Clinton plans to visit the state Thursday, the first day of Iowa’s early voting. “Democrats need to run up the score in Iowa, and so far they are not,” said Lindsay Walters, spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee. In Maine’s rural 2nd Congressional District, requests for ballots are down 18 percent, mostly among Democrats. Trump is counting on that district’s one electoral vote as part of his narrow path to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. If he succeeds, he would be the first Republican since 1992 to win the district in the mostly Democratic state. Maine and Nebraska are the only states that allocate electoral votes by congressional district. In Georgia, the state does not provide breakdowns of ballots by party, but overall ballot requests are up 5 percent to 82,504. By race, requests for ballots by whites rose to 62,732 while those from blacks were down slightly to 16,937, according to Catalist’s analysis for the AP. However, Asian-Americans, who in recent elections have leaned Democratic, nearly doubled to 1,588. Hispanics were lower at 761. Voter modeling by Catalist found that ballots broken down by party were at similar levels to 2012. Obama lost Georgia that year by roughly 8 percentage points. That means to win the state Clinton will have to make up more ground among African-Americans and Hispanics when in-person early voting begins Oct. 17. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Early ballots: Hillary Clinton sees strength in NC but lags in Iowa
Seven weeks before Election Day, the earliest numbers from advance voting for president show initial strength for Hillary Clinton in swing state North Carolina, good news for Donald Trump in battleground Iowa and a record number of requests for ballots in Ohio. The first early voting figures Tuesday are too preliminary to serve as clear indicators about how the election will go. Still, they are of interest because, unlike polls, they deal with actual voters either casting ballots or taking their first steps to do so. Campaigns are scrutinizing these figures to help guide their strategies. Among those requesting an early ballot in Iowa was Josh Hughes, a 19-year-old sophomore at Drake University in Des Moines. “I’m so ready for the election to be over,” he said, citing negative campaign rhetoric. He plans to vote for Clinton, the Democratic nominee. Many of his classmates — once Bernie Sanders supporters — are opting to wait for now. “The engagement is a little bit lower,” he said. Democrats historically do well in attracting early voters, and Republicans acknowledge their main goal is to avoid deep deficits before Nov. 8. With absentee balloting underway in North Carolina, voting kicks off this week in Georgia, Wisconsin, and Virginia as well as Iowa next week. Four years ago, about 45.6 million people or 35 percent of the electorate, voted early. In North Carolina, a must-win state for Trump, more than 53,000 voters had requested ballots, and 2,939 had been returned, according to data compiled by The Associated Press. That’s up from 47,313 ballots requested during a similar time frame in 2012. Broken down by party, Democrats made up 40 percent of the ballots returned so far compared to 33 percent for Republicans. At this point in 2012, Republicans were running slightly ahead, 43 percent to 38 percent, in ballots submitted. Republican Mitt Romney narrowly won the state that year and it’s difficult to see how Trump could accumulate the 270 electoral votes needed to capture the White House without winning North Carolina. Clinton has sought to energize state Democrats by pointing to a voter ID law passed by a Republican-led legislature that was later struck down by a federal court as racially discriminatory. On Tuesday, the campaign also announced a new radio ad in North Carolina and other battlegrounds aimed at African-American young adults. Trump, meanwhile, was visiting rural parts of the state Tuesday to gin up support among working-class whites. “More than half of North Carolina voters will cast their ballots ahead of Election Day, which is why we have been working tirelessly to give voters all the information they need to make their voices heard,” said Dan Kanninen, the Clinton campaign’s senior adviser for North Carolina. Iowa doesn’t start early voting until Sept. 29, but more than 68,000 people already have requested absentee ballots. Democrats dominate the early requests with 40,476 or roughly 60 percent of the ballots so far, compared to 13,011 or 19 percent for Republicans. But in an indication of softness among Clinton supporters, the numbers from her party are down significantly from 2012, when 92,850 Democrats had requested ballots at this point, compared to 13,635 for Republicans. Obama won Iowa in 2008 and 2012 based on a strong early vote, despite losing the Election Day vote there. The Republican National Committee, which is heading much of Trump’s get-out-the-vote effort, described the early numbers as evidence that Clinton’s campaign is failing to inspire enthusiasm among voters. “The RNC is continuing our historic ground game efforts in Iowa to ensure Republican victories up and down the ticket on Election Day,” said Sean Spicer, chief strategist for the RNC. In Ohio, election officials reported Monday that more than 524,000 voters had submitted absentee ballot applications. That’s up from nearly 485,000 during a similar period in 2012, when a record 1.87 million absentee ballots ultimately were cast by mail and in person, according to the secretary of state’s office. The state did not break down the requests by party affiliation. Of the Ohio requests so far, more than 11,000 are from overseas and military voters, whose ballots will be mailed out this week. Ballots for the other voters will be mailed on Oct. 12. The Supreme Court last week declined to reinstate a period of Ohio early voting in October in which people could register and vote on the same day. That was popular among minority voters. “All Ohioans have many options to cast a ballot,” Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted said. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Complex, yet fascinating: A primer on Alabama’s March presidential primary
With the 2016 election less than a year away, and the first caucuses within the next 90 days, now is a good time for a review of what could be an interesting, yet complex, turn of events. Much of the situation will depend on the state of the Republican field come March 1. Here is a primer of Alabama’s primary delegation process: Alabama’s Presidential Preference Primary is March 1, 2016, and does not require voters to declare a party preference when registering to vote. The Yellowhammer State has an open primary, meaning any registered voter can vote in the primary for any party. Voters choose the primary in which to vote, and they are not required to be a party member in order to vote. According to the state Department of Elections, requirements to vote in Alabama is as follows: each applicant is a citizen of the United States; is an Alabama resident; a minimum of 18 years old on or before Election Day; is not barred from voting by a disqualifying felony conviction, and has not been declared mentally incompetent by a court. The state does not permit online voter registration, early voting or “no excuse” absentee voting. Since 2014, to cast a ballot in Alabama requires valid photo identification at the polls. Alabama’s delegation is 26 at-large (numbered At-Large #1, At-Large #2, etc.), 21-Congressional District and three automatic (“unbound”) for 50 total, which will be allocated proportionally, as a what is known as winner-take-most. The threshold for any candidate to qualify for delegates is 20 percent, both statewide and within each congressional district. This follows Republican National Committee rules stating elections held before March 15 will be assigned proportionately. Some conservatives believe the rule was designed to help well-funded candidates (establishment favorites) who are in the race for the long term, and is an obstacle for grassroots candidates desperate for a primary win to rally supporters (and funds). Delegates are bound to their qualifying presidential candidates until either a candidate withdraws from the race for the Republican Party nomination and releases the delegates or if – by a two-thirds vote – the total number of delegates bound to that candidate become “unbound” at the national convention. That closes the door to any potential abuse but allows just enough for delegates to wiggle out of a pledge, in a scenario with multiple ballots/votes to determine the nominee at the convention. Enforcement of original pledges is left to the head of the Alabama delegation and/or the RNC secretary. While the system is designed to release delegates if a battle on the convention floor occurs, there is no mention of a specific number of ballots taken before a delegate can be released. Compared to four years ago, there are no other substantive rule changes in Alabama elections, but unlike other early primary states – New Hampshire, for one – proportional allocation of Alabama delegates come from two different groups: at-large statewide and congressional district delegates. To get either type, candidates must meet the 20 percent threshold, twice the limit set in New Hampshire. If a single candidate receives a majority of the Alabama’s vote, then he or she will receive all 26 at-large delegates. If a candidate receives a simple majority in any Alabama Congressional District, he or she will win three of the district’s delegates. The Alabama GOP Delegate Information Process datasheet outlines that a delegate must vote for the candidate they pledged on their qualifying form. If the candidate releases his delegates/alternates, then they can vote for a different person. As it stands, with such a large field of Republican presidential candidates – now standing at 15 – the chances are unlikely that a single candidate will receive a majority either statewide or in congressional districts. However, there is a possibility that the southern GOP contest – the so-called “SEC Primary” – will be a game changer in the 2016 presidential race. There is a likelihood the field will narrow after the early primary states of New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. On the other hand, with a big group of candidates remaining March 1, it will substantially limit the probability of the rise of a consensus candidate. The bottom line: it might be a good bet that one person does not emerge on Super Tuesday with all 47 Alabama delegates. That said, there is a path (albeit a backdoor one) for a candidate to receive a majority of Alabama delegates, even in a large field. One only needs to meet the 20-percent threshold, either statewide or within a congressional district. If that is the case, where a particular candidate meets the 20 percent bar statewide, then they will control half (+1) of delegates, regardless of the results in the congressional districts. Understandably, Alabama’s allotment system has the potential to cause a considerable amount of political turmoil, overshadowing what should be a somewhat organized process. With a smaller number of candidates, though, the odds of one person picking up 20 percent of the vote increases. And as that number reaches two – it becomes almost assured that one (or the other) will meet the 50 percent threshold, receiving all delegates. Another case is when the vote triggers a potential winner-take-most scenario. In that situation, there would be a 20 percent bar for one and a 50 percent threshold for the other. With the current state of the race, there is a likelihood that more than one candidate will reach the 20 percent, thereby qualifying for delegates. Here is where math comes in. Since it is statistically impossible for a field of over five viable candidates to receive more than 20 percent each, the overall effect is somewhat limiting. Alabama’s delegate allocation system promotes narrowing the field of contenders – or at least accelerating the winnowing already taking place before March 1. Therefore, if (or when) these conditions are met, 26 at-large delegates will be spread out among candidates who get at least 20 percent of the vote. As for
For half a sentence, Jeb Bush is an official 2016 candidate
Over and over again, Jeb Bush has said he’s still thinking about whether to run for president. But for half a sentence Wednesday, Bush let on it’s a decision he’s already made. And he’s in the race for the White House. Talking with reporters after a town hall in Reno, Nevada, the former Florida governor said, “I’m running for president in 2016 and the focus is going to be about how we, if I run, how do you create high sustained economic growth.” Bush noted several times in the same conversation he is still thinking about whether to run and caught himself before ending the sentence in which he said he was running by adding that caveat. Earlier in the same exchange, when asked about his brother, former President George W. Bush, he said, “If I run, it will be 2016, not 2000.” But the caveat is important. It’s one Bush has uttered countless times since January, traveling to early-voting and battleground states and meeting voters. It’s what has allowed him to raise limitless money to fuel a super PAC expected to complement his campaign once he officially announces his candidacy. Bush’s team had nothing to say about his slip. Once a White House hopeful launches a formal campaign, he or she can no longer coordinate activities with a super PAC. That’s why people who are running a presidential campaign in all but name hold off on declaring their intentions until the time suits them — even as they make speeches, meet donors and undertake other activities that are clearly the work of a presidential contender. Bush’s super PAC, Right to Rise, is expected, under the guidance of longtime adviser Mike Murphy, to conduct many of the functions a candidate’s campaign would — but without coordination with Bush or the federal contribution limits that go with a campaign. At the event in Reno, the former Florida governor again refused to say whether he would have proceeded with the 2003 invasion of Iraq if he’d been in brother and former President George W. Bush’s shoes. Anyone in hindsight “would have made different decisions,” he told reporters. “There is no denying that. But to delve into that and not focus on the future, I think is where I need to draw the line.” Pressed by a voter at the town hall-style meeting about the war, Bush said: “Talking about the future is more than fair. Talking about the past, saying how would you have done something after the fact is a little tougher, and it doesn’t necessarily change anything.” Bush later noted that such voter encounters stand in contrast to what he described as Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton‘s campaign. “You can’t script your way to the presidency, put yourself in a protective bubble and never interact with people — only talk with people that totally agree with you,” Bush said. “That’s not going to work. That’s not very sincere.” Republished with permission of the Assoociated Press.
