For Hillary Clinton, election likely to be won or lost in October
Each night, Hillary Clinton‘s data experts head to a conference room on the 11th floor of her Brooklyn headquarters, to start counting votes. The sessions in the “early voter boiler room,” as it’s been dubbed by campaign aides, stretch into the early hours of the morning. The team pores over turnout patterns in states where advance voting is already underway, projects how many votes Clinton and Republican Donald Trump have already received, and updates crucial targeting lists of the voters she still needs. For Clinton, October is when she’s likely to win or lose the election, not Nov. 8. By the third week of this month, Clinton’s campaign hopes to have a solid enough sample of the early vote to know whether the Democrat is on track to win the White House. “Many battleground states are already voting so every day is Election Day,” said Matt Dover, Clinton’s voter analytics director. In several competitive states, including North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, Florida and Nevada, at least 45 percent of the total vote is expected to come in early. Initial metrics show good news for Clinton in North Carolina, a must-win state for Trump. There are modestly positive signs for the Republican in Iowa, but that’s a state the Democrat can likely afford to lose. The Republican National Committee, which oversees early voting and turnout operations for Trump, is also encouraging supporters to take advantage of opportunities to cast ballots before Nov. 8. The party has significantly stepped up its analytics and voter-targeting operations since being outmatched by Democrats in the past two presidential elections, but the 2016 race is the first test of its strength in a national election. Despite improvements, the RNC system was always intended to be a complement to whatever operations the eventual GOP nominee brought to the table. Trump arrived in the general election with intense enthusiasm among his core supporters but few ways to harness it into trackable voter data. Unlike Clinton, whose travel schedule is being built around voter registration deadlines and the start of early voting in key states, Trump’s battleground stops haven’t been pegged to those benchmarks. However, there is a noticeably more robust registration effort at Trump rallies and the candidate himself is making explicit early voting appeals to supporters. “Get those ballots in because the only way this is going to be taken away (is) if we’re foolish or if we let people take it away from us,” Trump said Monday during a rally in Colorado. “I hate to interrupt my speech with these minor details but they’re very important, right?” Republicans traditionally do well initially with mail-in absentee balloting before Democrats surpass them during in-person early voting. That makes the start of in-person voting a key indicator as to whether core Democratic constituencies, such as young people and non-whites, show up. “For me, voting early is a matter of convenience, and if I don’t do it I’m unlikely to vote at all,” said Joseph Wozniak, 23, of Macon, Georgia. A recent college graduate who declined to say who he is supporting in the election, Wozniak is working on early vote efforts for the non-partisan organization Democracy Works. Thirty-seven states allow voting with little restriction before Election Day, either in person or via mail. By the third week in October, 34 of those states will be voting. Iowa was the first of the battlegrounds to start in-person voting last Thursday. Of the 39,435 people who have cast ballots, 58 percent were Democrats and 25 percent were Republicans — but that was much closer than in 2012. In North Carolina, buoyed by strong voter interest, Clinton appears to hold an edge with Democratic ballots submitted so far currently leading Republican ones, 40 to 35 percent. At this point in 2012, Republicans had opened a wide lead over Democrats in ballots, due in part to strong support among older whites. For 2016, Clinton officials pointed in particular to a 13 percent increase in African-American and a 40 percent jump in Latino mail-in ballot requests. To them, it’s a hopeful sign that non-whites and young people will be engaged this election, part of a shift in campaign strategy to more strongly mobilize less reliable, sporadic voters first. Still, the campaign said it will have a much clearer picture once in-person voting begins in the state on Oct. 20. Similarly in Florida, absentee balloting began only Tuesday, but already more than 2.5 million people — nearly one-third of the total number of votes cast in 2012 — have requested ballots. In-person voting doesn’t begin until Oct. 24, so state Democrats are now strongly urging voters to vote by mail — including in a letter from President Barack Obama paid for by the party. “In Florida, voting is easier than ever because now you can vote by mail,” he writes. “It’s the fastest and most convenient way to make your voice heard.” In Obama’s historic 2008 race, he ran up such big early voting advantages in four battlegrounds — Colorado, Florida, Iowa and North Carolina — that his rival, John McCain, couldn’t catch up, despite winning the Election Day vote in those states, according to AP data. If all goes according to the Clinton campaign’s plan, early ballots soon enough will start to unequivocally point in the same direction. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Analysis: In debate, Hillary Clinton was prepared, Donald Trump was Trump
She was at her best. He was not at his worst. Weeks of Super Bowl-style hype aside, Monday night’s 90 minutes of heated clashes between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump probably didn’t shove many undecided voters off the fence. If Clinton aimed to push her famously unpredictable opponent into a made-for-sharing disqualifying moment, she didn’t quite get there. If Trump set out to show America — particularly women — he’s completed the transformation from cartoonish pop culture staple to leader worthy of the Oval Office, he still has a way to go. But in a debate full of feisty exchanges and a personal scuffle or two, the candidates demonstrated clearly how they’ve gotten this far. Clinton was polished, prepared and proud of it —a Hermione Granger at a podium. She came with sharp and practiced answers, most notably a newly direct one for the questions about her private email server that has dogged her candidacy for months. She grinned broadly and calmly, even when under fire, and she mocked but only gently the man she called “Donald.” “I think Donald just criticized me for preparing for this debate. And, yes, I did,” Clinton said. “And you know what else I prepared for? I prepared to be president. And I think that’s a good thing.” Trump addressed his opponent as “Secretary Clinton” — even asking for her approval for the term — but by the end he called her “Hillary.” The care he took with her title was a reminder of the voters he was aiming to win over. Women, particularly college-educated white women, are the key to Trump turning his current burst of momentum into a sustained surge that lasts until Election Day. The 70-year-old businessman has struggled to persuade women, even those with doubts about the first woman president, to get behind his bid, thanks in part to his performances in past debates, which led to cringe-worthy challenges to moderator Megyn Kelly or opponent Carly Fiorina. Trump avoided another jaw-dropping, decorum-busting moment on Monday night, but it was hard to see that he did much to soften his image. He repeatedly and aggressively interrupted Clinton to rebut or deny her charges, at times talking over her or interrupting. When asked by moderator Lester Holt to explain a previous comment that Clinton doesn’t have a “presidential look,” Trump simply repeated the comment. “She doesn’t have the look. She doesn’t have the stamina,” he said. “To be president of this country, you need tremendous stamina.” Clinton came prepared to pounce: “Well, as soon as he travels to 112 countries and negotiates a peace deal, a cease-fire, a release of dissidents, an opening of new opportunities in nations around the world, or even spends 11 hours testifying in front of a congressional committee, he can talk to me about stamina.” As the debate went on, Clinton seemed to gain confidence and a better sense of timing. When Trump concluded a long and tangled defense of his years-long campaign to challenge President Barack Obama’s citizenship, she paused for a moment to let Trump’s words sink in. “Well, just listen to what you heard,” she said. Trump, too, had his moments. He delivered a searing indictment of Clinton as just another insider proposing the same-old solutions for an economy on the brink of “crashing down.” The riff was a potent reminder of why his candidacy has become a vehicle for the alienated white Americans feeling pinched by the economy and forces of globalization. “Typical politician. All talk, no action. Sounds good, doesn’t work. Never going to happen,” he said, encapsulating the core message of his campaign. He showed Clinton remains vulnerable on her support for trade deals, forcing Clinton in her clearest fib of the night when she denied having called the Trans-Pacific Partnership the “gold standard” of trade agreements and claimed she merely said she hoped it would be a good deal. But Trump missed opportunities to dive into Clinton’s other vulnerabilities. She was also able to make swift work of her email scandal, saying simply “It was a mistake and I take responsibility for that.” “That’s for sure,” Trump interjected, but left it there. The Republican didn’t raise Clinton’s description of half of his supporters as “deplorables” or the Clinton Foundation and its donor network. That left Clinton largely free to play the prepared grown up to Trump’s agitated upstart. Even Trump granted her that: “She’s got experience,” he said. “But it’s bad experience. And this country can’t afford to have another four years of that kind of experience.” Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Updates from the 1st presidential debate
The Latest on the first of three presidential debates between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump (all times EDT): 10:45 p.m. Both candidates concluded the first presidential debate by saying they will accept the outcome if the other wins. Hillary Clinton spoke directly to viewers and said, “It’s not about us, it’s about you.” Donald Trump initially dodged the same question, saying he would make a “seriously troubled” America “great again.” He added: “I’m going to be able to do it. I don’t believe Hillary Clinton will.” But Trump finished his answer by saying that if Clinton wins, “I will absolutely support her.” ___ 10:43 p.m. Hillary Clinton is punching back at Donald Trump’s assertions that she doesn’t have the “stamina” to be president. Trump has questioned whether Clinton has the physical fitness to be president and he repeated the criticism to her directly during the debate. Clinton’s response? Trump shouldn’t talk about stamina until he’s tried out the busy schedule she kept up as secretary of state. Trump didn’t answer moderator Lester Holt’s original question about his past comments that Clinton doesn’t have the “presidential look.” Clinton suggested the remarks were about gender, and she reminded the crowd of Trump’s past comments calling women “pigs” and other derogatory names. ___ 10:42 p.m. Donald Trump says NATO needs to “go into the Middle East with us” to combat the Islamic State group. And he is taking credit for NATO focusing resources on combating terrorism. In fact, the alliance agreed in July to contribute aircraft and conduct training in Iraq and has increased intelligence coordination there. And NATO set up an anti-terrorism program in 2004 — years before Trump criticized them as a presidential candidate. Earlier this year, Trump criticized NATO for not focusing on terrorism. He said that afterward, he saw an article reporting that NATO was opening a new, major anti-terrorism division. He said Tuesday that NATO’s action was “largely because of what I was saying, and my criticism of NATO.” ___ 10:40 p.m. Donald Trump is avoiding a specific declaration on how he would use nuclear weapons if he’s elected president. The Republican nominee said during the first presidential debate that he “would not do first strike” because “once the nuclear alternative happens, it’s over.” That statement suggests he would not authorize a nuclear attack unless the U.S. was struck first. But in the same answer Trump said he “can’t take anything off the table.” He mentioned adversary nations such as North Korea and Iran. President Barack Obama has considered changing existing policy to state clearly that the United States would not deploy nuclear weapons without first being attacked by nuclear weapons. But he met resistance and has elected not to make such a shift. ___ 10:38 p.m. Hillary Clinton is accusing Donald Trump of being too easily provoked to keep the United States from going to war — perhaps even one involving nuclear weapons. Trump says: “I have much better judgment than she does. I have much better temperament.” That drew laughs from some in the debate crowd, and prompted Clinton to exclaim: “Woo! OK!” Clinton then pivoted to policy, defending the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan. Clinton said Iran was “weeks away” from a nuclear bomb when she became secretary of state — and says the Obama administration thwarted that progress. She continued that Trump didn’t have “good judgment or the right temperament” because he could take the country to war over small issues, like being mocked on Twitter. ___ 10:35 p.m. Donald Trump is continuing to insist he opposed the Iraq War before the U.S. invasion despite evidence to the contrary. Trump says during the debate that he “did not support the war in Iraq,” calling that charge “mainstream media nonsense.” But there is no evidence Trump expressed public opposition to the war before the U.S. invaded. Trump was asked in September 2002 whether he supported a potential Iraq invasion in an interview with Howard Stern. Trump briefly hesitated, then responded: “Yeah, I guess so.” Presented with the comment during the debate, Trump responds: “I said very lightly, I don’t know, maybe, who knows.” He’s also telling reporters to call Fox News host Sean Hannity to confirm private conversations he said they had about the war. Hannity is a top Trump supporter. Clinton voted in favor of the invasion in 2002 while she was a New York senator. She has since said it was a mistake. ___ 10:27 p.m. Donald Trump is interrupting the moderator of the first presidential debate to insist he has the best temperament for the office. Trump repeatedly made the assertion after clashing with moderator Lester Holt over his early support for the Iraq War. Then he segued to his temperament. “I think my strongest asset by far is my temperament,” Trump said. “I know how to win.” Clinton and her allies have repeatedly hit Trump over his temper and inability to take criticism. ___ 10:23 p.m. Hillary Clinton says one key to fighting terrorism in the United States is working closely with Muslims living here. Clinton says Donald Trump has “consistently insulted Muslims abroad, Muslims at home.” She says Muslim people can provide information that law enforcement may not be able to obtain anyplace else. Both candidates were asked to explain how they would combat terrorism in the U.S. Clinton says her plan includes an intelligence surge to obtain “every scrap of information” and to “do everything we can to vacuum up intelligence from Europe, from the Middle East.” ___ 10:20 p.m. Hillary Clinton says defeating the Islamic State group and taking out its leaders would be a top priority as president. Clinton says she’s hopeful the Islamic State group would be pushed out of Iraq by the end of the year. She says the U.S. could then help its allies “squeeze” the terrorist group in Syria. Clinton says she would do everything possible to take out the group’s leaders, and make that one of her administration’s organizing principles
Moderator Lester Holt under scrutiny during debate
Everyone’s aware of the stakes for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump during the first presidential debate, but there’s a third person in the equation who faces a different pressure: Lester Holt. The NBC News veteran is moderating his first general election debate, making him solely responsible for the questions asked each candidate and for steering the conversation. His performance will be closely watched, particularly in light of a dispute over the extent to which he should call politicians out for making untrue statements. Holt, 57, has kept quiet about his preparations. The NBC “Nightly News” anchor took over his job last year after predecessor Brian Williams was found to have lied about his role in news stories. Like the moderators for all three presidential debates this fall, it’s Holt’s first time in that role for a general election debate. He hosted a Democratic primary forum in January, and has interviewed Clinton and Trump three times each during the campaign. In a reflection of the attention that will be paid to Holt, his voter registration became an issue last week. “Lester is a Democrat,” Trump said in a Fox News Channel interview. “It’s a phony system. They are all Democrats.” Holt, however, is a registered Republican, according to New York state voting records. Asked about the misstatement on Monday, Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway said on MSNBC that it wasn’t a lie because Trump didn’t know Holt’s voter registration. Voting records show that Anderson Cooper of CNN, who is moderating the Oct. 5 debate, is registered unaffiliated with a party in New York and Chris Wallace of Fox News, the moderator on Oct. 19, is a registered Democrat in Washington, D.C. Martha Raddatz, who will join Cooper, lives in Virginia, which doesn’t register voters by party, and ABC would not discuss her affiliation. That illustrates on a small scale the issue of to what extent moderators, and journalists covering the debate, should point it out when a candidate says something untrue. It became part of the pre-debate discussion when Holt’s NBC colleague, Matt Lauer, was criticized for not confronting Trump earlier this month when the Republican falsely claimed he had not expressed support for the war in Iraq during a forum between the two candidates. The Clinton campaign says moderators should police false statements. Trump’s campaign says it’s not their role. Among journalists, there’s no consensus. Janet Brown, executive director of the Commission on Presidential Debates, said on CNN Sunday that in past debates moderators have generally believed the candidates should call their opponents out when something false is said. “I don’t think it’s a good idea to get the moderator into essentially serving as the Encyclopedia Britannica,” Brown said. Television networks were skittish Monday in discussing their fact-checking plans in advance. None admitted in advance to plans of flashing graphics onscreen to identify a false statement; that hasn’t been done in the past. NBC News said it is teaming with PolitiFact for digital fact-checking. CBS said it will assign fact-checkers that will provide context during the debate on the CBSNews.com website. In past years, some networks have assigned reporters post-debate to examine the accuracy of particular statements. The television industry will be watching to see if Monday’s debate can smash the previous record for the biggest presidential debate audience, the 80.6 million people who watched the only debate of the 1980 campaign between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. The most-watched debate this century was the first between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in 2012, with 67.2 million voters, the Nielsen company said. During his television journalism career, Holt has been known more for hard work than flashiness. He was a news anchor in Chicago for 14 years before coming to NBC in 2000, and logged long hours on MSNBC during the Iraq War. The bass guitar is his off-screen passion. Last week he set aside debate prep to play during a Manhattan rooftop party for “Dateline NBC,” joining some fellow NBC employees running through songs by Alabama Shakes, Billy Squier and Jefferson Starship. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
How to stream the high-stakes presidential debates
Television viewership for Monday’s presidential debate is expected to be high, but you don’t need a television to watch. There are plenty of ways to stream the showdown for free and get behind-the-scenes content and commentary, ranging from emoji responses to serious fact checks. A bigger question might be: Who isn’t streaming it? If you don’t have cable or satellite TV, or even an antenna, you can catch the streams that major news organizations will offer on their websites and apps. But many social networks and online outlets will offer the debate, too. Here’s your online guide to Monday’s debate, which starts at 9 p.m. EDT. All three presidential debates are expected to have similar streaming opportunities, and many outlets will cover the one for the vice presidential candidates as well. ___ TWITTER The service will stream Bloomberg Television’s live coverage of the presidential and vice presidential debates. To watch, go to http://debates.twitter.com, or visit Bloomberg’s bpolitics Twitter feed. Twitter says the streams will include special political programming and commentary from Bloomberg 30 minutes before and after each debate. You do not need a Twitter account — or be logged in — to watch. ___ FACEBOOK ABC News will show live streams from the debate and offer footage from watch parties, anchors and correspondents. The network says it will “incorporate viewers’ comments, questions and conversations” into its Facebook Live coverage. To find it, go to the ABC News Facebook page. Other organizations are hopping on the Facebook Live bandwagon as well, including Fox News, C-SPAN, The New York Times, CNBC and Telemundo. ___ YOUTUBE Google’s video streaming site is hosting debate streams from several news outlets, including NBC News, The Washington Post, Telemundo and Fox News. In addition, Google says “your favorite YouTube creators” such as the Young Turks and Complex news will be streaming live reports from the debates, using YouTube Live directly from their phones. ___ VIRTUAL REALITY For those with virtual-reality headsets, NBC News is planning special VR streams and content for each of the debates. It will also help organize virtual watch parties. Some of the events require RSVPs. ___ BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE! Buzzfeed is promising “running emoji commentary of the action on Facebook Live.” Snapchat, meanwhile, will cover each debate as a “Live Story” within its app. CBSN, CBS News’ digital streaming service, will feature Instagram “Stories” in its live streaming coverage. Instagram Stories lets users share photos and videos from their day; they disappear automatically after 24 hours. ___ LAST, BUT NOT LEAST Bars across the country will be showing the debates. As with past debates, there will be drinking games and debate bingo for those interested. In New York City, the blog Gothamist assembled a list of places for “watching, boozing and laughing your way through the debate.” The gay club Eastern Bloc, for example, will feature a dance party and Hillary Clinton fundraiser following the debate. Whether you’re a fan of Clinton or Donald Trump, or you’re still deciding, check Meetup, Facebook or Google to find debate-viewing events near you. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Donald Trump campaign plans $140 million ad buy
Donald Trump‘s campaign is planning for what it says will amount to $140 million worth of advertising from now until Election Day. The total, if executed, would include $100 million in television airtime and $40 million in digital ads, according to senior communications adviser Jason Miller. The plan represents a new approach for the billionaire businessman, who has repeatedly bragged in recent weeks about how much less he’s spent than Democratic rival Hillary Clinton and seemed to rely heavily on free media coverage of his large rallies. Through this week, the Trump campaign has put only about $22 million into TV and radio ads for the general election, according to Kantar Media’s political advertising tracker. Clinton has spent more than five times as much on those kinds of ads, $124 million so far. Trump’s new ad buy will include 13 states, from key battlegrounds such as Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania, to new targets of Maine, New Mexico and Wisconsin, Miller said. About $40 million of the ads will play on national TV, he said. That averages to about $16.7 million per week in TV ads; Miller said the first $15 million ad buy was made Friday, although media buyers and services such as Kantar Media didn’t immediately see evidence of that. Clinton’s ad reservations going forward total about $11 million per week, but her campaign can add to those buys at any time. Trump’s advertising plan costs more than his campaign has in the bank, meaning he needs to dip into his own pockets or continue raising major money. As of Sept. 1, the campaign had about $50 million in cash, though in a news release earlier this month, the campaign said it had $97 million in cash when including his joint accounts with Republican Party allies. Trump has continued to experience strong fundraising online this month, campaign aides said. Miller said upcoming national television ads would focus on Trump’s key campaign themes, such as the economy and law and order. The local ads, however, are expected to focus on ways Trump’s policies might benefit local communities and families, Miller said. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump buff foreign policy bona fides on debate eve
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were meeting separately with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Sunday, giving the each candidate fresh bragging rights about their knowledge of foreign policy and readiness to lead the nation on the eve of their first presidential debate. Trump and Netanyahu discussed “at length” Israel’s use of a fence to help secure its borders, an example Trump frequently cites when he’s talking about the wall he wants to build between the U.S. and Mexico. “Trump recognized that Israel and its citizens have suffered far too long on the front lines of Islamic terrorism,” the campaign said in a statement. “He agreed with Prime Minister Netanyahu that the Israeli people want a just and lasting peace with their neighbors, but that peace will only come when the Palestinians renounce hatred and violence and accept Israel as a Jewish State.” Clinton was expected to meet with the prime minister later in the day, also in New York. The meeting was designed to put Israel on good footing with the next U.S. president. But it also served to showcase the candidates’ expertise in foreign policy in the shadow of their first debate Monday, six weeks before Election Day. Clinton, a former senator and secretary of state, often says that Trump does not know enough about the world and lacks the temperament to be president. Trump has argued that he has extensive experience with foreign policy through his career as a business executive and blames Clinton for many of the nation’s stumbles in foreign policy. Meanwhile, the candidates deployed their top supporters to the Sunday shows to take early jabs at their opponents and lower expectations for a showdown expected to draw 75 million viewers — many of them disenchanted with both candidates, the least-popular presidential hopefuls in history. Facts and who will determine them during the 90-minute debate seemed to be a top concern of the campaigns’ strategists given Trump’s habit of saying things that are untrue and the public’s general distrust of Clinton. Robby Mook, Clinton’s campaign manager, told ABC’s “This Week” that he is concerned Trump will continue his habit of sometimes saying things that aren’t true and still get a passing grade. He called on moderator Lester Holt to correct any inaccuracies made by the candidates. But Trump’s campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, said it’s not the job of debate moderators to fact check. Trump’s vice presidential running mate, Mike Pence, meanwhile, said that Gennifer Flowers will not attend the debate. Trump had tweeted that if frequent Trump critic Mark Cuban attended the showdown, he’d put Flowers, allegedly the former mistress of Clinton’s husband Bill, in the audience too. Conway said that Flowers had a right to be there if “somebody else gives her a ticket.” But Pence drew a harder line. “Gennifer Flowers will not be attending the debate tomorrow night,” Pence said on “Fox News Sunday.” The candidates were focused on other matters Sunday. Trump’s campaign said that during his meeting with Netanyahu, the Republican presidential nominee promised, “extraordinary strategic, technological, military and intelligence cooperation between the two countries” if he’s elected. The press was barred from covering the meeting between Netanyahu and Trump, but Trump’s campaign said in a statement that the men, who have known each other for years, discussed “many topics important to both countries,” including “the special relationship between America and Israel and the unbreakable bond between the two countries.” Among those topics: the nuclear deal with Iran, the battle against Islamic State militants, military assistance provided by the U.S. to Israel and other security issues. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Gold cards and red hats: A Trumpian approach to fundraising
Donald Trump is underwriting his presidential bid by selling the Donald Trump lifestyle — and campaign finance records show it is working. For the low price of $25, you can snag a Trump Gold Card emblazoned with your name or join a campaign “Board of Directors” that comes with a personalized certificate. For $30, grab one of Trump’s signature red hats — billed as “the most popular product in America.” Supporters can elevate themselves to “big league” by ponying up $184 for a signed, “now out of print” copy of Trump’s book, “The Art of the Deal.” There’s a catch to some of these merchandising claims. There is no evidence the board of directors exists. “The Art of the Deal” is still in print, available for $9.34 in paperback. And the new campaign edition of the book is signed by an autopen, not Trump, as noted in the solicitation’s fine print. Regardless, the appeals have paid off. Through the end of July, people giving $200 or less made up about half of his campaign funds, according to fundraising reports through July. For Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, those small gifts accounted for about 19 percent. The two candidates each claim over 2 million donors, but Trump has been fundraising in earnest for only about three months, compared to Clinton’s 17-month operation. Both are expected to report the details of their August fundraising to federal regulators on Tuesday. “His brand appeals to quite a number of people,” said John Thompson, digital fundraising director for Ted Cruz‘s Republican presidential campaign. “It’s smart for him to use it for fundraising. The celebrity factor builds a natural donor community on its own, without him having to do too much.” Hyperbolic campaign marketing is a natural fit for Trump, who has puffed up the value of what he sold throughout his business career. At times, Trump has offered golf memberships or Trump University seminars at a “discount” from an imaginary, inflated price; and he has declared condo projects close to selling out when in reality they were struggling. “You want to say it in the most positive way possible,” Trump once told attorneys who asked him whether he had ever lied about his properties to sell them. “I’m no different from a politician running for office.” Perhaps it is no surprise, then, that his campaign has adopted that same approach, outspending Clinton on campaign merchandise while running a brisk retail operation that helps him raise the money for, among other things, crucial get-out-the-vote efforts and advertising to spread his message. Trump’s appeals for smaller contributions are reminiscent of Bernie Sanders, whose signature line in the Democratic primary this year was that his campaign was paid for by $27 donations. Sanders’ digital fundraiser, Michael Whitney, questioned whether Trump’s small donor haul would continue since it does not appear the campaign has done much to get email addresses that could be turned into fresh batches of new potential donors. “This feels more like a battering ram than a well-thought-out digital program,” Whitney said. One of Trump’s most frequent fundraising offers has been a “gold card” that identifies the holder as an Executive Member for a “one-time induction fee.” “In the past, I have asked supporters for a one-time induction fee of $100. But because of your outstanding generosity to date, I am only asking you to make a $35 contribution,” the email asks. The Associated Press found no evidence of an online solicitation in which the card was sold for the undiscounted price of $100. The gold card offer is reminiscent of a Trump Visa card that became available in 2004. In a press release for it, Trump pitched it as “the best deal” and warned declining it “could get you fired.” Trump also seeks to make would-be donors feel like part of the campaign. Several emails have sought “campaign advice,” asked for help with debate preparation and even offered people the chance to join a campaign “board of directors.” There’s no evidence such a board exists, and the campaign did not respond to questions about it. But the gold card and executive board membership gimmicks are getting results, said Tom Sather, senior director of research at the email data solutions firm Return Path. The firm measures emails much the way Nielsen measures television viewership, by extrapolating from a large panel of study participants. Emails from the Trump campaign and Trump joint committees with the Republican Party have an average open rate of 11 percent, Sather said. The 10 gold card-related emails had a far higher open rate of 18 percent, and executive board emails had an open rate of 19 percent, he said. “These kinds of offers intrigue people and make them feel exclusive and special,” he said. Ever the marketer, Trump has also dominated the campaign swag front. In April, May and June, Trump spent about $3 million on merchandise that’s then sold to donors, an AP review of campaign finance reports found. Clinton’s operation spent about $2 million in the same time period. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Donald Trump signed improper charity check supporting Florida AG Pam Bondi
Donald Trump‘s signature, an unmistakable if nearly illegible series of bold vertical flourishes, was scrawled on the improper $25,000 check sent from his personal foundation to a political committee supporting Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi. Charities are barred from engaging in political activities, and the Republican presidential nominee’s campaign has contended for weeks that the 2013 check from the Donald J. Trump Foundation was mistakenly issued following a series of clerical errors. Trump had intended to use personal funds to support Bondi’s re-election, his campaign said. So, why didn’t Trump catch the purported goof himself when he signed the foundation check? Trump lawyer Alan Garten offered new details about the transaction to The Associated Press on Thursday, after a copy of the Sept. 9, 2013, check was released by New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman. Garten said the billionaire businessman personally signs hundreds of checks a week, and that he simply didn’t catch the error. “He traditionally signs a lot of checks,” said Garten, who serves as in-house counsel for various business interests at Trump Tower in New York City. “It’s a way for him to monitor and keep control over what’s going on in the company. It’s just his way. … I’ve personally been in his office numerous times and seen a big stack of checks on his desk for him to sign.” The 2013 donation to Bondi’s political group has garnered intense scrutiny because her office was at the time fielding media questions about whether she would follow the lead of Schneiderman, who had then filed a lawsuit against Trump University and Trump Institute. Scores of former students say they were scammed by Trump’s namesake get-rich-quick seminars in real estate. Bondi, whom the AP reported in June personally solicited the $25,000 check from Trump, took no action. Both Bondi and Trump say their conversation had nothing to do with the Trump University litigation, though neither has answered questions about what they did discuss or provided the exact date the conversation occurred. House Democrats called earlier this week for a federal criminal investigation into the donation, suggesting Trump was trying to bribe Bondi with the charity check. Schneiderman, a Democrat, said he was already investigating to determine whether Trump’s charity broke state laws. Garten said the series of errors began after Trump instructed his staff to cut a $25,000 check to the political committee supporting Bondi, called And Justice for All. Someone in Trump’s accounting department then consulted a master list of charitable organizations maintained by the IRS and saw a Utah charity by the same name that provides legal aid to the poor. According to Garten, that person, whom he declined to identify by name, then independently decided that the check should come from the Trump Foundation account rather than Trump’s personal funds. The check was then printed and returned for Trump’s signature. After it was signed, Garten said, Trump’s office staff mailed the check to its intended recipient in Florida, rather than to the charity in Utah. Emails released by Bondi’s office show her staff was first contacted at the end of August by a reporter for The Orlando Sentinel asking about the Trump University lawsuit in New York. Trump’s Sept. 9 check is dated four days before the newspaper printed a story quoting Bondi’s spokeswoman saying her office was reviewing Schneiderman’s suit, but four days before the pro-Bondi political committee reports receiving the check in the mail. Compounding the confusion, the following year on its 2013 tax forms the Trump Foundation reported making a donation to a Kansas charity called Justice for All. Garten said that was another accounting error, rather than an attempt to obscure the improper donation to the political group. In March, The Washington Post first revealed that that the donation to the pro-Bondi group had been misreported on the Trump Foundation’s 2013 tax forms. The following day, records show Trump signed an IRS form disclosing the error and paying a $2,500 fine. Bondi has endorsed Trump’s presidential bid and has campaigned with him this year. She has said the timing of Trump’s donation was coincidental and that she wasn’t personally aware of the consumer complaints her office had received about Trump University and the Trump Institute, a separate Florida business that paid Trump a licensing fee and a cut of the profits to use his name and curriculum. Neither company was still offering seminars by the time Bondi took office in 2011, though dissatisfied former customers were still seeking promised refunds. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton turn to battleground states in the South
With Labor Day behind them, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are pushing ahead in top presidential battlegrounds in the South. Trump, the Republican nominee, is set to campaign in Virginia and North Carolina on Tuesday, two critical states in his path to the presidency. Clinton, the Democrat, is campaigning in Florida in search of an advantage in the nation’s largest swing state. A Clinton victory in Florida would make it virtually impossible for Trump to overcome her advantage in the race for 270 electoral votes. The day before in swing state Ohio, Trump softened his stance on immigration while Clinton blasted Russia for suspected tampering in the U.S. electoral process. In a rare news conference aboard her new campaign plane, Clinton said she is concerned about “credible reports about Russian government interference in our elections.” “We are going to have to take those threats and attacks seriously,” Clinton told reporters traveling with her from Ohio to Illinois. Clinton’s comments follow reports that the Russian government may have been involved in the hacking of Democratic National Committee emails just days before the party’s national convention. The emails, later revealed by WikiLeaks, showed some DNC officials favoring Clinton over her primary opponent, Bernie Sanders — who has since endorsed Clinton for president. She said Russian President Vladimir Putin appears “quite satisfied with himself” and said Trump “has generally parroted what is a Putin-Kremlin line.” Meanwhile, Trump extended a rare invitation to journalists to accompany him on his private plane from Cleveland to Youngstown, Ohio. The billionaire businessman appeared to shy away from his hard-line vow to block “amnesty” for immigrants in the country illegally. Any immigrants who want full citizenship must return to their countries of origin and get in line, he told reporters — but he would not rule out a pathway to legal status for the millions living in the U.S. illegally, as he did in a long-awaited policy speech last week. “We’re going to make that decision into the future,” Trump said. Clinton powered through a coughing fit at a Labor Day festival at a Cleveland park, sharply criticizing Trump’s recent trip to Mexico as “an embarrassing international incident.” Unwilling to allow Trump to modify his immigration stances, she said his address later that night in Arizona amounted to a “doubling down on his absurd plan to send a deportation force to round up 16 million people.” “He can try to fool voters into thinking somehow he’s not as harsh and inhumane as he seems, but it’s too late,” Clinton said. The former secretary of state flatly said “No,” when asked in an ABC News interview whether she’d be willing to accept the Mexican president’s invitation to visit the country, as Trump did last week. “I’m going to continue to focus on what we’re doing to create jobs here at home,” Clinton said. Earlier in the day, Trump attacked Clinton’s energy level, noting she hasn’t followed his aggressive traveling schedule and questioning whether she had the stamina to help bring jobs back to America. “She doesn’t have the energy to bring ’em back. You need energy, man,” Trump told reporters. He added, “She didn’t have the energy to go to Louisiana. And she didn’t have the energy to go to Mexico.” Clinton’s 25-minute question-and-answer session was her first extensive availability with reporters since early December. Beyond Russia, she answered questions about the ongoing controversy surrounding her use of a private email server while secretary of state, which Trump has used to cast doubt over her ability to protect classified information. “I take classification seriously,” she said. While Labor Day has traditionally been the kickoff to the fall campaign, both Clinton and Trump have been locked in an intense back-and-forth throughout the summer. The start of full-fledged campaigning opens a pivotal month, culminating in the first presidential debate Sept. 26 at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. Polls show Trump trailing Clinton in a series of must-win battleground states, meaning the debates could be his best chance at reorienting the race. Trump told reporters he does plan to take part in all three presidential debates, joking that only a “hurricane” or “natural disaster” would prevent him from attending. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
What’s on Hillary Clinton’s to-do list before Election Day?
Hillary Clinton will celebrate Labor Day with an edge over rival Donald Trump in any number of the most competitive states, even as she struggles with the challenge of sealing the deal with large groups of voters who consider her dishonest and untrustworthy. Clinton’s experience as secretary of state and her handle on domestic policy make her the favorite in three presidential debates beginning later this month. She has appeared in more than 30 as a presidential candidate in 2008 and 2016. But she still has work to do. A look at Clinton’s Labor Day to Election Day to-do list: DOMINATE THE DEBATES Millions of voters will watch the debates, which offer her an opportunity and a challenge. She needs to prepare for a candidate who’s the most unpredictable nominee in decades. She also needs to prevent Trump from using the televised forums to present himself as a plausible commander in chief, and from turning them into referendums on President Barack Obama’s two terms and Clinton’s decades in politics. Clinton acknowledges that the debates could be pivotal. She told donors last weekend, “Somebody said to me, ‘Well, remember, there’ll be a lot of people watching.’ One hundred million people watching. And 60 million will be paying attention to the campaign for the first time.” CHART A PATH TO 270 Clinton has an edge in most of the highly contested states, the roughly dozen or so where the election will be decided. Her campaign is trying to keep open as many paths as possible through those states to reach the decisive 270 electoral votes needed to win. She enters the fall with a decided advantage, both in terms of history and in this year’s campaign. If Clinton can hold onto the set of states that every Democratic presidential nominee has won since 2000, she starts with 242 electoral votes. Beyond those states, preference polls show her ahead in Virginia and Colorado, and competing in close contests in North Carolina, Florida and Ohio. Applying pressure on Trump, Clinton is advertising in GOP-leaning Arizona and in an Omaha, Nebraska, congressional district. If Clinton can keep open as many routes to victory, she will make it difficult for Trump to chart a way to 270. That will make it hard for him to convince fellow Republicans who are worried about maintaining their congressional majorities that he can win. EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED Clinton’s campaign is bracing itself for some type of ‘October surprise” — an unexpected event that requires the nominee to adjust in the pressure-cooker of the campaign’s final days. Clinton must be able to deftly deal with such a development, and there are plenty of contenders on the horizon. The State Department is expected to release some of the 15,000 emails from Clinton’s time there that have yet to be made publicly available. WikiLeaks has threatened to release more damaging information before the end of the election. She’ll need to make sure any new revelations don’t further damage the public’s view of Clinton, which isn’t particularly strong for a candidate seen as ahead on Labor Day. TURNOUT, TURNOUT, TURNOUT Clinton’s campaign needs to maximize voter turnout among members of the “Obama coalition” — the legions of black, Latino, unmarried women and young voters who powered him to two decisive victories. Trump has sought in recent days to turn around his dismal standing among minorities. But the negative tone of the campaign could dampen turnout and make Clinton’s task more difficult. Clinton also aims to make the most of early voting in a number of critical states, replicating a strategy that worked well for Obama. She will have plenty of help: Obama and Vice President Joe Biden are hitting the road on her behalf and she can also rely on her husband, former President Bill Clinton. TRUSTWORTHINESS Questions about Clinton’s honesty and trustworthiness have dogged her throughout the campaign and she can ill afford to have more voters view her in a negative way. Her saving grace during the campaign has been Trump’s high negative ratings, untrustworthiness and penchant for saying provocative things that have turned off many voters. But more revelations about her private email server or the Clinton Foundation could reinforce the perception that she’s not trustworthy. On Friday, the FBI released notes from its investigation of her email use as secretary of state. It’s the kind of day Clinton needs to avoid. Even if she wins in November, this is a problem could haunt Clinton in the White House. That’s why she needs to start chipping away at her trust deficit now, so that if elected, she will have some public goodwill as she tries to lead the nation and work with Congress. Clinton could find it difficult to enact her agenda if questions about her honesty linger as president. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Democratic donors, allies offer reward for Donald Trump tax returns
The wealthy Democratic donors, many of them executives who run complex businesses, know firsthand how revealing tax returns can be. Perhaps that’s why they can’t stop talking about Republican nominee Donald Trump‘s refusal to release his. In their suites at the Ritz Carlton hotel, where many are staying during this week’s Democratic convention, and at its auxiliary swanky parties, the supporters of Hillary Clinton are sounding the alarm about Trump’s break with decades of presidential campaign tradition. Clinton put out eight years of recent tax filings last summer, and they lament that voters don’t seem to understand why Trump’s refusal to do the same matters. Democratic talk of the taxes spilled onto the convention stage Wednesday night. Vice presidential candidate Tim Kaine, mocking Trump, said, “Believe me, there’s nothing suspicious in my tax returns. Believe me!” The crowd laughed. There’s even a literally a bounty for the Trump documents. Moishe Mana, a top fundraiser for Clinton, has offered to give $1 million to the charity of Trump’s choice if he makes them public. He joins an unnamed Republican donor working with Clinton ally David Brock who has made a similar offer of $5 million. “Through his financial documents, we are trying to break into the image that he’s portraying to the American people,” said Mana, a real estate developer in Miami. “He says he’s a successful businessman who wants to do for the country what he did for his company. Well, go ahead, show me the money.” Trump is unmoved. The billionaire owner of the Trump Organization, an international development company, says the Internal Revenue Service is reviewing his most recent returns and that he’ll release them once that audit is complete. He reiterated that plan at a news conference Wednesday in Doral, Florida. Asked when he would put out the documents, he said: “I don’t know. Depends on the audit.” There’s no telling whether that would happen before Election Day, but the IRS says there’s no legal reason Trump can’t make the tax returns public even as they are under review. The issue has flared up in recent days, in the wake of the hack of emails at the Democratic National Committee that the Obama administration said Wednesday was almost certainly the work of Russia. The group WikiLeaks released the emails on the eve of the convention, a leak its leader Julian Assange has said was timed to inflict political damage on Clinton. Trump said Wednesday that he has no ties to Russia whatsoever, but that hasn’t stopped Democratic donors in Philadelphia from saying that in the absence of Trump’s tax returns, voters are left to wonder whether there are undisclosed financial ties between Trump and foreign entities. “Think of what’s gone on just this week and connect the dotted lines,” said top Clinton donor J.B. Pritzker, a billionaire venture capitalist in Chicago. “I’m not sure what’s going on, but it sure doesn’t look good. The question is who his investors are, and whether there are any in China or Russia that are affecting his personal income.” Mana also wants that answered. If Trump’s elected president, he said, “how much in debt would we be to other countries? This is about the security of the United States. We have the right to make sure he’s not in debt to other countries.” While information about Trump’s debts has been made public in personal financial disclosures filed with federal election regulators, the Democratic donors say access to his taxes might shed light on previously unknown business arrangements. The returns would also detail for the first time how much he pays in income tax and how much he gives to charity. “He is obfuscating in order to avoid being discovered as a liar,” Pritzker said. The 2012 GOP nominee, Mitt Romney, resisted putting out his 2011 tax return until the September just before the election, after being pressed for months about doing so. The documents showed he paid an effective tax rate of 14.1 percent, far lower than the average person, spawning days of bad headlines. Other presidential candidates, including Republican Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, have been dinged for not giving much to charity. Bill and Hillary Clinton paid an overall federal tax rate of 31.6 percent between 2007 and 2014, her returns showed. In 2014, they donated almost 11 percent of their income to charity. In addition to blaming the IRS audit, Trump has said in interviews that it might not make political sense for him to put out his returns. Romney’s returns were “a tiny peanut compared to mine,” Trump said on “Meet the Press” in an interview that aired last Sunday. There was little controversial in the Romney documents, he said. Yet the media “made him look bad,” Trump said. “In fact, I think he lost his election because of that.” Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
