In Florida, a shifting Cuban vote could be the difference
Francis Suarez comes from a long line of civic and political leaders who have formed the Republican bedrock in south Florida’s Cuban community for a half-century. Yet the 38-year-old Miami city commissioner hasn’t decided whether he will vote for his party’s presidential nominee. And he’s not alone. Many Cuban-Americans express solidarity with other Latin-Americans who see Donald Trump as anti-Hispanic. Still others hear in Trump’s nationalistic populism echoes of the government strongmen they once fled. “There are aspects of Trump that appeal to parts of the Cuban-American culture: strong leadership, the ability and willingness to say bold things,” says Suarez, the son of a former Miami mayor and a potential chief executive himself. The concern, Suarez says, comes when Trump’s boorishness, bullying and slapdash policy pronouncements “cross the line from bold to wild, unpredictable.” How those misgivings influence the votes of hundreds of thousands of Cuban-Americans could tilt the nation’s most populous presidential battleground state and, depending on circumstances elsewhere, determine whether Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton wins the election. Roberto Rodriguez Tejera, a well-known Spanish-language radio and television host in Miami, says he won’t endorse Trump or Clinton, arguing neither has engaged in genuine, personal outreach to average Cuban and other Hispanic voters. But Tejera asks his audiences to compare Trump’s assertions that “I am your voice” and “I alone can solve” societal ills to the initial appeals of authoritarian rulers like Cuba’s Fidel Castro and the late Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. “It goes well beyond immigration to the very nature of our Latin-American problem,” Tejera said in an interview. “Many of us remember how it starts. It starts with questioning institutions. Then you destroy institutions – you being the only person in the world who can save the nation from collapse.” Fernand Amandi, a Democratic south Florida pollster, estimates the Cuban-American vote could approach 8 percent of the 8 million-plus ballots cast in Florida in November. Amandi said Cuban-Americans are “the only Hispanic group in the country” to support Trump over Clinton in preference polling, but not by a margin victorious Republican nominees have managed. Trump aides note support from some elected officials and volunteers within the Cuban-American community, but Trump adviser Karen Giorno said his strategy ultimately considers Cuban-Americans as it does anyone else: “They are worried about safety and security. They are worried about the economy. They are worried about drugs on the street. They are worried about the same things other Americans are worried about.” Suarez, the Miami commissioner, applauds that approach, but he says it doesn’t account for some Cubans-Americans who are thinking of themselves, for the first time in presidential politics, as aligned with immigrants from Mexico and the nations of Central and South America – a collective class of people who have never enjoyed Cubans’ favored immigration status. “Some Cubans don’t consider themselves Hispanic,” says Amandi, the Democratic pollster. But now, says Republican pollster Dario Moreno, Trump has made immigration a “symbolic issue” that penetrates the Cuban psyche. “Anti-immigration rhetoric is taken as anti-Hispanic,” Moreno said, “and you see that even among the old Cubans” who were the first to arrive in Florida as refugees after Castro came to power in 1959. Clinton certainly sees an opening. In the last week, she launched an advertising blitz featuring the endorsement of Carlos Gutierrez, a Cuban-American Republican and commerce secretary for President George W. Bush. Speaking in Spanish, Gutierrez calls Trump dangerous and says: “For me, it’s country first, and then party.” One of the GOP’s top financiers, health-care billionaire Mike Fernandez, recently called Trump an “abysmally unfit candidate” and endorsed Clinton. Other prominent Republicans – Miami Mayor Tomas Regalado and U.S. Reps. Carlos Curbelo and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen – have said they will not support Trump, though they’ve stopped short of endorsing Clinton. Tejera, the broadcaster, says heavyweights like Gutierrez and Fernandez “won’t move one vote,” but their public backing of a Democratic nominee is a striking development in Cuban-American politics. For decades, the equation was simple: U.S. politicians of all persuasions blasted the Castro government and supported the trade embargo first imposed under President John F. Kennedy, a Democrat. Despite mostly bipartisan agreement, initial Cuban arrivals to the U.S. aligned overwhelmingly with Republicans, largely out of anger at Kennedy’s handling of the failed Bay of Pigs invasion intended to topple Castro in 1961. Yet many in that generation have died or are old, and their children and grandchildren, along with more recent Cuban immigrants, aren’t as hard line or simply don’t vote exclusively on “the Cuba question.” “We’re starting to see them think and vote like everybody else, not be driven by a single issue,” says Moreno, the Republican pollster and a professor at Miami’s Florida International University. Exit polls in the 2012 election found Cuban-Americans essentially split between President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, less than a decade after George W. Bush won the Cuban vote overwhelmingly. Obama has since normalized diplomatic relations with Havana, traveled to the island for a state visit and called on Congress to lift the trade embargo. Clinton has forcefully ratified Obama’s stance. Until last week, Trump effectively endorsed it, as well, with vague qualifiers that he’d get “a better deal” than Obama. Yet on Friday in Miami, he reversed himself, embracing the hard-liners’ longstanding views and promising to roll back Obama’s actions unless the Castro government expanded political freedoms on the island. Rudy Fernandez, 43, who spent almost a decade working at the Republican National Committee and in the White House under George W. Bush, doesn’t mention Cuba when explaining why he will choose between Clinton and Libertarian Gary Johnson. Rather, he argues that Trump has been “deeply divisive” and adds a common GOP establishment critique that the billionaire “is not a Republican … not a conservative” and “lacks the temperament required for the job.” To be clear, Clinton doesn’t have a lock on Cuban-American votes Trump may lose. Amandi notes that Clinton’s Spanish-language media presence began months later than Obama’s general election efforts.
Donald Trump signed improper charity check supporting Florida AG Pam Bondi
Donald Trump‘s signature, an unmistakable if nearly illegible series of bold vertical flourishes, was scrawled on the improper $25,000 check sent from his personal foundation to a political committee supporting Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi. Charities are barred from engaging in political activities, and the Republican presidential nominee’s campaign has contended for weeks that the 2013 check from the Donald J. Trump Foundation was mistakenly issued following a series of clerical errors. Trump had intended to use personal funds to support Bondi’s re-election, his campaign said. So, why didn’t Trump catch the purported goof himself when he signed the foundation check? Trump lawyer Alan Garten offered new details about the transaction to The Associated Press on Thursday, after a copy of the Sept. 9, 2013, check was released by New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman. Garten said the billionaire businessman personally signs hundreds of checks a week, and that he simply didn’t catch the error. “He traditionally signs a lot of checks,” said Garten, who serves as in-house counsel for various business interests at Trump Tower in New York City. “It’s a way for him to monitor and keep control over what’s going on in the company. It’s just his way. … I’ve personally been in his office numerous times and seen a big stack of checks on his desk for him to sign.” The 2013 donation to Bondi’s political group has garnered intense scrutiny because her office was at the time fielding media questions about whether she would follow the lead of Schneiderman, who had then filed a lawsuit against Trump University and Trump Institute. Scores of former students say they were scammed by Trump’s namesake get-rich-quick seminars in real estate. Bondi, whom the AP reported in June personally solicited the $25,000 check from Trump, took no action. Both Bondi and Trump say their conversation had nothing to do with the Trump University litigation, though neither has answered questions about what they did discuss or provided the exact date the conversation occurred. House Democrats called earlier this week for a federal criminal investigation into the donation, suggesting Trump was trying to bribe Bondi with the charity check. Schneiderman, a Democrat, said he was already investigating to determine whether Trump’s charity broke state laws. Garten said the series of errors began after Trump instructed his staff to cut a $25,000 check to the political committee supporting Bondi, called And Justice for All. Someone in Trump’s accounting department then consulted a master list of charitable organizations maintained by the IRS and saw a Utah charity by the same name that provides legal aid to the poor. According to Garten, that person, whom he declined to identify by name, then independently decided that the check should come from the Trump Foundation account rather than Trump’s personal funds. The check was then printed and returned for Trump’s signature. After it was signed, Garten said, Trump’s office staff mailed the check to its intended recipient in Florida, rather than to the charity in Utah. Emails released by Bondi’s office show her staff was first contacted at the end of August by a reporter for The Orlando Sentinel asking about the Trump University lawsuit in New York. Trump’s Sept. 9 check is dated four days before the newspaper printed a story quoting Bondi’s spokeswoman saying her office was reviewing Schneiderman’s suit, but four days before the pro-Bondi political committee reports receiving the check in the mail. Compounding the confusion, the following year on its 2013 tax forms the Trump Foundation reported making a donation to a Kansas charity called Justice for All. Garten said that was another accounting error, rather than an attempt to obscure the improper donation to the political group. In March, The Washington Post first revealed that that the donation to the pro-Bondi group had been misreported on the Trump Foundation’s 2013 tax forms. The following day, records show Trump signed an IRS form disclosing the error and paying a $2,500 fine. Bondi has endorsed Trump’s presidential bid and has campaigned with him this year. She has said the timing of Trump’s donation was coincidental and that she wasn’t personally aware of the consumer complaints her office had received about Trump University and the Trump Institute, a separate Florida business that paid Trump a licensing fee and a cut of the profits to use his name and curriculum. Neither company was still offering seminars by the time Bondi took office in 2011, though dissatisfied former customers were still seeking promised refunds. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
In Florida, Donald Trump faces a Hillary Clinton campaign behemoth
For Donald Trump, the fight for Florida begins and ends with mass appeal: signature rallies and direct social media contact with voters who believe he can “make America great again.” Add some 30 Florida Trump employees to about 80 Republican Party field workers deployed around the state, and that pretty much covers the GOP nominee’s conventional ground game operation in the largest battleground state. Then there’s Hillary Clinton: 51 offices, with more on the way, and 500 employees combing Florida, and an overall ground game that rivals that of the previous Democratic nominee, President Barack Obama. Trump loyalists say they have a deliberate strategy and far-reaching footprint to counter the Clinton behemoth, even if his apparatus doesn’t measure up in campaign offices, staff and paid advertising. But the organizational disparity leaves more than a few Republicans scratching their heads. All agree Trump has no path to the required 270 electoral votes without claiming Florida’s 29. “Everyone keeps saying you’re not doing this in a traditional way, why?” says Trump adviser Karen Giorno. “Well, we don’t have a traditional candidate.” She oversaw Trump’s Florida operation from the primary season until last week, when she moved to national duties. Giorno points to thousands of volunteers led by unpaid chairmen in each of Florida’s 67 counties. The Republican National Committee says it has 1,000 trained volunteers to go with its employees. Yet only after Labor Day did the Trump campaign open outposts other than the nominee’s state headquarters in Sarasota. Giorno’s replacement by Susie Wiles came just two months before Election Day. Giorno and Wiles say their candidate is in good shape. Either Trump or his running mate Mike Pence will be in the state at least weekly until the election, Giorno said. Between visits, she added, a volunteer network, led by people in each of Florida’s 67 counties, will use more conventional methods to build the Trump coalition. Wiles, in an interview on her first day as the new Florida boss, said judging the campaign by offices and staff “isn’t the right measure we should use,” because “you don’t meet voters sitting in an office.” Prior to her job change, Giorno described a two-track strategy she developed with Trump’s blessing. “Ten thousand people in an arena and thousands of people on social media are just as good as (Democrats) knocking on 10,000 doors — and we’re doing that, too,” Giorno said. “I don’t see how people say we have no ground game just because they don’t see something that operates just like they think it should.” Scott Arceneaux, senior strategist for Clinton’s Florida campaign, calls that “ridiculous spin” in a state where marginal shifts in a diverse electorate can tilt the statewide result. Obama won Florida by fewer than 3 percentage points in 2008 and less than a percentage point four years later, with turnout exceeding 8.3 million both times. Polls for months have suggested another tight race. Trump’s Orange County chairman, Randy Ross, said Arceneaux discounts people like him. Ross, whose territory includes Orlando, shepherds other volunteers who run phone banks and knock on doors using voter lists produced by the Republican National Committee’s data operation, expanded after Obama’s two victories. “We happen to be using things Republicans learned” from Obama, Ross added, “but we are really a movement, just like Mr. Trump calls it.” Brian Ballard, a Trump fundraiser and top lobbyist in the state capital of Tallahassee, said, “Counting campaign offices just doesn’t matter these days.” Florida is slightly less white than the national electorate, but still roughly a microcosm. If the electorate largely reflects 2012, Clinton would capitalize on her standing among African-Americans and Hispanics wary of Trump. Even among Cuban-Americans, a population that has historically leaned Republican, Trump appears to be underperforming — a circumstance that would pad Clinton’s advantage. Yet even if Clinton maintains her advantage among minorities, turnout could drop in places like Orlando and south Florida’s Broward County, yielding her fewer overall votes. That could give Trump an opening if he’s able to goose turnout among whites, particularly in Pensacola, Jacksonville and other GOP strongholds in north Florida. Even so, said Arceneaux, “This is a 1 percent state, so if we win by 2 percent, that’s a landslide.” Facing such a landscape, Giorno conceded Trump is late building his paid campaign infrastructure. But other Florida Republicans point to strong local parties that already were using the national party’s data and support, while running their own outreach programs. Michael Barnett, chairman of the Palm Beach County GOP, for example, says his party has for several years built relationships within the Haitian-American community. That pocket — numbering in the tens of thousands — shows up as black voters on paper, Barnett notes, “but doesn’t have the historical connection with the Democratic Party” that American-born blacks do. Arceneaux, the Clinton strategist, questions whether the overall Republican effort can identify and mobilize voters beyond those who identify themselves as eager supporters, given fewer employees and Trump’s late effort. He joked: “We like to say that Mr. Trump gives us many avenues to victory.” Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Alabama has one of the fastest growing counties for Hispanics in the U.S., research shows
America’s fastest growing Hispanic populations are not in places one would expect — Florida, California, or Texas. It’s in rural states like Alabama and North Dakota. Alabama’s Russell County had a 92 percent Latino population growth rate between 2007 and 2014, according to a new survey by the Pew Research Center. That makes it fourth in the nation, behind three counties in North Dakota. Russell County is on the eastern border of central Alabama and Georgia, just south of Columbus. Williams County, in northwestern North Dakota, led the pack with a 367 percent increase, followed by Stark County, also in North Dakota, with 294 percent. The Washington Post reports on the study, which shows the largest growth of Hispanic populations in the United States is in a “handful of rural counties far from metropolitan areas dominated by Latinos.” This demographic shift could soon start reshaping the political landscape in mostly rural states; a move Democrats are already beginning to embrace. Acknowledging this population change, Hillary Clinton’s campaign has brought in Hispanic outreach directors for Georgia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, making it the first time a presidential campaign has focused its Latino efforts in those areas. Clinton began airing Spanish-language ads this week in Nevada and Florida. Another finding in the study: most Hispanics dispersing throughout the country do not speak Spanish only. As many as 72 percent of Hispanics moving to these fastest-growing counties are identified as “English proficient,” which means they only speak English at home, or speak English along with another language. The national average is 68 percent.
After easy win, Marco Rubio has bigger challenge to keep seat
Republican Sen. Marco Rubio‘s presidential aspirations and insistence that he was done with the Senate didn’t hurt him with GOP voters, now it’s time to see if the rest of Florida will be as forgiving as he seeks a second term. Rubio easily won the Republican nomination to retain his seat and will be challenged by Democratic U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, who defeated Congressman Alan Grayson in Tuesday’s Senate primary. It’s a race Democrats are targeting in an effort to regain a majority in the Senate, and their hope is that Rubio’s presidential ambitions have dulled the shine he had with Florida voters. In other races Tuesday, U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown lost a primary as she faces felony fraud charges. It will end her 24-year congressional career as former state Sen. Al Lawson is almost assured of replacing her in the heavily Democratic district. Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who resigned last month as Democratic National Committee chairwoman, fended off the first serious challenge she’s faced since winning office in 2004 by beating Tim Canova, a Bernie Sanders-backed law professor. Rubio and Murphy have already been giving a preview of the general election match up, with each candidate focusing on each other rather than their primary opponents in the weeks leading up to the nominating contest. Murphy says Rubio cares more about political ambition than voters and can’t even commit to serving all six years in the Senate if he wins, and Rubio says Murphy is a privileged son of a wealthy man who has lied about his education, work experience and starting a small business. “He’s going to have to account for his four years in Congress, where he was ranked by a non-partisan group as one of the most ineffective members,” Rubio said after winning. “That’s a hard thing to achieve in a Congress that’s been as ineffective as this one has been over the last 10 years.” Murphy also immediately attacked Rubio after his victory. “Senator Rubio is trying to distract from his terrible record. Here’s a guy who has missed more votes than any senator from Florida in nearly 50 years. He told us he doesn’t like the job and just yesterday he told us he said he won’t commit to a six-year term,” Murphy said. There is evidence that the presidential run has taken a toll on Rubio. A Quinnipiac University poll taken before he announced his presidential campaign showed a 54 percent job approval with voters, compared to 35 percent disapproval. After he announced he’d seek a second Senate term, those numbers dipped to 46 percent approval and 43 percent disapproval. Democratic party leaders felt Murphy, a former Republican, has the best chance in the general election. He was backed in the primary by President Barack Obama and Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid. Vice President Joe Biden traveled to Florida three times to campaign with Murphy. Grayson, a fiery liberal who often makes headlines with brash statements, was seen as too inflammatory to win over a state that tends to support moderate candidates. But Murphy is still largely unknown in Florida and outside Republican groups began running negative ads against him weeks ago. Until Rubio decided in June to seek another term, it was expected that Murphy’s Republican challenger would also be a lesser known candidate. Rubio will start the contest with the advantage of already having won a statewide election in a state with more than 12 million voters. Still, Rubio’s chances of re-election could rely heavily on the presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. If Clinton wins by a large margin, it could hurt Rubio in the state Obama carried in 2008 and 2012. Rubio has half-heartedly endorsed Trump, but says he won’t campaign with him. Murphy has repeatedly pointed out that Rubio called Trump a conman who can’t be trusted, but now supports him. Democrats hope to gain seats in Florida’s heavily Republican U.S. House delegation after court-mandated redistricting chipped away the advantages of some incumbents. Florida had to rip up and redraw its congressional maps after they were found to violate the state constitution’s provision requiring compact districts that don’t favor incumbents or political parties. That spurred one of the state’s most heavily contested congressional election years. Florida will eventually send at least eight new House members to Washington. Republicans now outnumber Democrats 17-10 in the state’s congressional delegation. If Democrats sweep all four seats seen as competitive in November, that Republican advantage could be reduced to 14-13. One of those is now held by U.S. Rep. David Jolly, a Republican who was expected to win Tuesday, but who would then have to beat former Gov. Charlie Crist, who used to be a Republican but is now a Democrat. Republished with permission of The Associated Press.
Donald Trump campaign doubles spending, not ground game
Donald Trump‘s campaign expenses more than doubled last month, even as the Republican presidential nominee held his payroll to about 70 employees, aired zero television advertisements and undertook no significant operational build out across the country. Instead, about half of the campaign’s $18.5 million in spending was vacuumed up by Giles-Parscale, a web design and marketing firm new to national politics, Federal Election Commission filings show. It’s a crossover vendor from Trump’s real estate organization. The campaign paid Giles-Parscale $8.4 million in July, about twice what the San Antonio firm had collected from it over the course of the preceding year. Brad Parscale, the president, is the campaign’s director of digital marketing. The big expense came as Trump put a new emphasis on online fundraising, after paying for his primary run mostly out of his own pocket. Millions more went to air travel. The campaign paid about $2 million for private jets other than Trump’s own TAG Air, which also collected $500,000. Some of Trump’s consultants are also mysteriously well-paid. Chess Bedsole, the campaign’s Alabama state director, was paid $64,000 last month for field consulting. His last campaign payment was for $15,000 in December. Yet the campaign’s payroll remained thin, and there did not appear to be much new in the way of office leases across the country, including in critical battleground states such as Ohio. Trump has relied heavily on the Republican National Committee for conventional campaign infrastructure. And he’s boasted of holding the line on his campaign spending. But he’s running critically low on time to build an operation that can compete with Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. In addition to being ahead of Trump in polls in key states, Clinton has maintained a staff of about 700 for months, opened up offices across the country and already spent $67 million on general election ads. Trump put out his first ads days ago, spending $5 million to air them in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Her campaign spent $38 million in July, about double his spending. Clinton can afford to spend more than Trump, the July campaign finance reports show. Her campaign raised $52 million while his brought in $37 million for the month, including a $2 million contribution from Trump himself. The candidates also raise money for their parties, enabling them to ask for contributions far higher than the $2,700-per-donor limit to the campaigns. Overall in July, Clinton raised $90 million for her campaign and Democratic partners, while Trump raised $80 million for the campaign and Republican groups. Trump did bring aboard some new campaign consultants in July. He paid $100,000 to Cambridge Analytica, a deep-dive data firm that did business with GOP opponent Ted Cruz. Hedge fund billionaire Robert Mercer, who contributed $2 million to a pro-Trump super political action committee in July, is an investor in Cambridge. The Trump filings also show some old ties. Two weeks after the ouster of campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, Trump’s campaign cut his firm, Green Monster Consulting, another $20,000 check. That’s about the same amount it had paid him each month while he was running the campaign. At the time of the latest payment, Lewandowski was already on the payroll of CNN, where he is a political contributor. The campaign also paid Trump Organization employee Meredith McIver, who has worked as a Trump ghostwriter over the years. She took credit — and then blame — for writing Melania Trump‘s speech at the Republican National Convention that included similar lines from Michelle Obama‘s speech at the 2008 Democratic National Convention. The campaign valued McIver’s time, accounted for as payroll from the Trump Organization, at $356.01. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Donald Trump makes first ad buys in battleground states, including Florida
With his new leadership team promising a sharper message, Donald Trump on Thursday moved to invest nearly $5 million in battleground state advertising. The investment over the coming 10 days in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania marks the Republican presidential contender’s first major general election expenditures in the swing states, which are considered critical to his narrowing path to the White House. The advertising plans, confirmed by Kantar Media’s political ad tracker, come a day after Trump announced another senior staffing shakeup. Weary Republican leaders hope the new leadership team can reverse the New York businessman’s struggles even as some worry it’s too little too late. The Republican nominee tapped Stephen Bannon — a combative conservative media executive with no presidential campaign experience — to serve as CEO of his White House bid. Pollster Kellyanne Conway, who has known Trump for years and gained his trust during her brief tenure working for him, will serve as campaign manager. “I think we’re going to sharpen the message,” Conway told CNN. “We’re going to make sure Donald Trump is comfortable about being in his own skin — that he doesn’t lose that authenticity that you simply can’t buy and a pollster can’t give you. Voters know if you’re comfortable in your own skin.” The Republican National Committee has already conceded it may divert resources away from the presidential contest favor of vulnerable Senate and House candidates if Trump’s standing does not improve in the coming weeks. RNC chief strategist Sean Spicer called Trump’s staffing changes the “healthy growth of the campaign at a senior level at a key point.” He also urged caution as Trump’s new team contemplates whether the fiery populism and freewheeling style that won him the Republican nomination will give him a better shot at the White House than uniting his party and rallying moderate voters. “I think people want him to be authentic,” Spicer said. “They appreciate he’s not a scripted politician, but there’s a recognition that words do matter.” The staffing changes are aimed in part at marginalizing campaign chairman Paul Manafort, a longtime Republican operative who pushed Trump to moderate his tone and improve relations with skeptical Republican officials. In breaking with that approach, Trump appears set on finishing the race on his own terms — win or lose. Trump’s divisive tone and weak poll numbers have triggered a rash of Republican defections in recent weeks. Party loyalists have grown increasingly frustrated with Trump’s inability to stay focused on Democrat Hillary Clinton amid a series of self-created distractions. “I don’t care if Donald Duck is running the campaign,” said Henry Barbour, a Republican National committeeman from Mississippi. “If he can make this thing about Hillary Clinton’s record and getting the country back on track, that’s what’s going to win this election.” Despite the new advertising investment, Trump is woefully behind: Clinton’s campaign has spent more than $75 million on ads in the weeks since she effectively locked up the nomination in early June, according to Kantar Media’s political ad tracker. Trump frequently boasts that his rival is spending heavily while he’s put nothing into advertising, banking so far on free wall-to-wall media coverage to carry his message. While his campaign has been silent through paid media, he’s had some assistance from outside political groups, Kantar Media shows. One, called Rebuilding America Now, has spent about $9 million in the past few weeks. The National Rifle Association’s political arm has also put more than $4 million into anti-Clinton messages. But these amounts pale in comparison to the $31 million the pro-Clinton super PAC Priorities USA has spent on air since mid-June. And that’s just one of several groups helping her. Rarely do presidential campaigns wait so long to advertise, or undergo such a level of leadership tumult at such a stage of the general election. The developments come less than three months before Election Day, and roughly six weeks before early voting begins. Trump’s standing in the White House race plummeted throughout the summer and he now trails Clinton in preference polls of most key battleground states. He’s struggled to offer voters a consistent message, overshadowing formal policy speeches with a steady stream of controversies, including a public feud with an American Muslim family whose son was killed while serving in the U.S. military in Iraq. Bannon’s website has been fiercely loyal to Trump for months and sharply critical of Republican leaders, including House Speaker Paul Ryan. Breitbart has also actively promoted false conspiracy theories about Clinton, and some have then made their way into Trump’s remarks. “Trump is on his third campaign manager in three months. If this was a hot dog stand, conclusion might be there was a problem with the dogs,” Republican strategist Stuart Stevens, a frequent Trump critic, wrote on Twitter. Republished with permission of the Associated Press. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Hillary Clinton campaign reports 34.2 percent tax rate
Hillary Clinton‘s campaign says the Democratic nominee and her husband paid a federal tax rate of 34.2 percent and donated 9.8 percent of their income to charity last year. The Clintons are releasing their 2015 filings on Friday. Her campaign is also releasing returns from running mate Tim Kaine and his wife. The campaign says the Kaines have donated 7.5 percent of their income to charity over the last decade. They paid an effective tax rate of 25.6 percent in 2015. Clinton is trying to undercut the trustworthiness of rival Donald Trump. He has refused to disclose any returns, breaking tradition with all recent presidential candidates. Trump says he won’t release them until Internal Revenue Service completes audits of his returns. The Clintons have disclosed returns for every year since 1977. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Hillary Clinton sets out most efficient path to get to 270
Hillary Clinton doesn’t appear all that interested in making scenic stops on her state-to-state quest to become president. The Democratic nominee is instead programming her GPS to take her on the quickest route to collect the 270 Electoral College votes she needs to win the White House. With three months until Election Day, Clinton’s campaign is focused on capturing the battleground states that have decided the most recent presidential elections, not so much on expanding the map. Clinton’s team doesn’t rule out an effort at Arizona, a state with a booming population of Latino voters that polls find are loath to support Trump. And Georgia, a bastion of the Deep South, echoes recent population trends in other Southeastern states where Clinton is competing aggressively. But neither is among the 11 battleground states that Clinton’s television advertising plans and her travel schedule point to as her focus. Those states are the perennial top-tier targets Florida and Ohio, plus Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. President Barack Obama carried them all in 2008, and missed out on only North Carolina during his 2012 re-election campaign. “The last two elections have given Democrats an electoral path for victory,” said Clinton campaign adviser John Anzalone. “And our strategy is to efficiently use our resources to lock down the support we need to reach 270 electoral votes.” After a bump in support for Clinton in national polls that followed the Democratic convention and tracked Trump’s recent gaffes, the number of states where Clinton will invest her time and money may get smaller than 11. When the Clinton campaign booked more than $23 million in new television ad time late this past week to start on Monday, it spent most of the money in just three states: Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Feeling good about Colorado and Virginia, the campaign passed on giving those states a fresh injection of ad dollars, though they remain heavily staffed with organizers. Likewise, officials with the pro-Clinton group Priorities USA say they have put its advertising plans there on hold. Meanwhile, Trump’s travel following the Republican convention suggests he’s given up on plans to force Clinton to defend traditional Democratic bastions California and New York. Beyond that, it’s not clear how he plans to chart his course to 270. “I have states that no other Republican would do well in that I think I’m going to win,” Trump told The Washington Post this past week. “But I don’t want to name those states.” Trump’s campaign has yet to run a single television ad and has made curious decisions about where to send its candidate. This past week, for example, Trump spent a day in Portland, Maine, chasing after the single electoral vote at stake along the state’s largely Democratic southern coast. There have been no such distractions for Clinton since the end of her convention, aside from a quick stop in Nebraska, a visit that was probably as much about spending time on stage with billionaire investor Warren Buffett than picking up the one electoral vote in the Omaha area. (Maine and Nebraska are the two states that award electoral votes by congressional district instead of a statewide winner-take-all vote.) This coming week, Clinton will be in Florida. So will Trump. That’s no surprise, as a win there plus victories in every state (and the District of Columbia) that have voted Democratic since 1992 would give Clinton a winning total of 271 electoral votes. Florida Republican consultant Brett Doster said simply of his state: “If we don’t win here, I just don’t see how we win.” Despite the 2016 campaign’s unscripted form, Democrat and Republican pollsters alike said in the past week that Florida is competitive and is expected to stay that way into the fall. The largest share of single-state spending in Clinton’s most recent ad buy came in Florida, at more than $4.2 million, and that, plus an aggressive pursuit of Latino voters, may give her a narrow edge. In Florida’s Orange County, which includes Orlando, the Democratic edge among registered voters has grown by 15 percent since 2008. Since late last year, roughly 1,000 Puerto Rican families a month have relocated to Florida due to the U.S. territory’s fiscal crisis, many of them concentrating in and around Orlando’s heavy service-sector job scene. Bilingual teams of Clinton employees are registering first-time Puerto Rican voters at grocery stores, malls and community centers. Republican pollster Whit Ayres said Trump’s problems in Florida go deeper than his lack of advertising and overwhelmingly unpopular standing among Latinos. He said Trump’s recent criticism of the Muslim family of a fallen U.S. soldier is not likely to sit well in a state with 22 military installations and more than 1.5 million veterans. “The attack on the Gold Star family makes it unlikely for him to expand in Florida beyond where he is right now,” said Ayres, an adviser to Republican Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida. While Trump may not have a path without Florida, Clinton can lose the state and still find another way through the battlegrounds to reach 270. That’s no doubt why from June 8 through Monday, Clinton and Democratic groups supporting her will have outspent Republican groups by 15 to 1 in those states, according to data from Kantar Media’s CMAG political advertising tracker. The Clinton campaign and deep-pocketed Democratic groups such as Priorities USA have poured a combined $66 million into television and radio advertising in those 11 states. Trump’s campaign hasn’t spent a dollar on television advertising, while Republican groups have only spent about $4.3 million. Put simply, Anzalone said, Clinton has options. “But this is a dynamic race and we will continue to look at all pathways as this race develops,” he said. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Report: Sally Bradshaw says she may vote for Hillary Clinton
A prominent Jeb Bush aide has said she might vote for Hillary Clinton come November. Sally Bradshaw told CNN on Monday that she has left the Republican Party to become an independent. Bradshaw, a close adviser to Bush, also said if the presidential race in Florida is close, she will vote for Clinton come Election Day. “This election cycle is a test,” she told CNN. “As much as I don’t want another four years of (President Barack) Obama‘s policies, I can’t look my children in the eye and tell them I voted for Donald Trump. I can’t tell them to love their neighbor and treat others the way they wanted to be treated, and then vote for Donald Trump. I won’t do it.” Bradshaw is a longtime Bush family supporter, working first on George H.W. Bush’s 1988 presidential campaign. She remained close with the family, and has served Jeb Bush in several capacities over the years, including a significant role in his 2016 presidential bid. Her comments come as Trump criticizes a family of a Muslim soldier killed in action in Iraq in 2004. Bradshaw told CNN that Trump’s remarks were despicable. Bradshaw told CNN she had been considering switching parties for a while, but Trump’s recent comments solidified her decision. She said she had worked hard to make the party “a place where all would feel welcome,” but Trump has taken the GOP in a different direction. While she told CNN she wasn’t sure who she would vote for in November, she said if the race in Florida is close she “will vote for Hillary Clinton.” She said she disagrees with her on several issues, but the country is at a crossroads and “this is a time when country has to take priority over political parties.”
Hillary Clinton looks to steal Donald Trump thunder with VP pick
Hillary Clinton moved closer to introducing her running mate, snatching attention from newly crowned Republican nominee Donald Trump just hours after he closed out his convention with a fiery and foreboding turn at the podium. Crews were still sweeping confetti from the GOP convention hall floor, as the Clinton campaign signaled an announcement was coming soon. In a tweet Friday morning, her campaign urged supporters to text the campaign to get the first word. Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine had emerged as the leading contender, according to Democrats familiar with Clinton’s search. The news could quickly steal Trump’s thunder. In a 75-minute speech Thursday night, Trump made forceful promises to be the champion of disaffected Americans, capping his convention on a high note for the party, not a moment too soon after shows of disharmony and assorted flubs before the four-day closer. Speaking to “the forgotten men and women of our country,” the people who “work hard but no longer have a voice,” he declared: “I am your voice.” With that, he summed up both the paradox and the power of his campaign — a billionaire who made common cause with struggling Americans alienated from the system, or at least a portion of them. The speech was strikingly dark for a celebratory event and almost entirely lacking in policy details. Trump pledged as president to restore a sense of public safety, strictly curb immigration and save the nation from Clinton’s record of “death, destruction, terrorism and weakness.” “I have joined the political arena so that the powerful can no longer beat up on people that cannot defend themselves,” Trump said. He shouted throughout as he read off a teleprompter, showing few flashes of humor or even smiles. Democrats offered a different assessment, with Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta arguing that Trump “offered no real solutions to help working families get ahead or to keep our country safe, just more prejudice and paranoia. America is better than this. America is better than Donald Trump.” Clinton opens a two-day campaign swing Friday in Florida and is expected to introduce her running mate either at a Friday afternoon rally at the state fairgrounds in Tampa or on Saturday at Florida International University in Miami. Kaine, 58, appeared to be the favorite for her choice, according to two Democrats, who both cautioned that Clinton has not made a decision and could change direction. In Cleveland, Trump’s acceptance of the Republican nomination capped his improbable takeover of the GOP, a party that plunges into the general election united in opposition to Clinton but still torn over Trump. Underscoring his unorthodox candidacy, Trump reasserted the hard-line immigration policies that fired up conservatives in the primary but broke with many in his party by expressing support for gays and lesbians. Ever the showman, he fed off the energy of the crowd, stepping back to soak in applause and joining the delegates as they chanted, “U-S-A.” It was an altogether smoother — and more scripted — chapter in a footloose convention shocked a night earlier by Ted Cruz’s prime-time speech, a pointed non-endorsement of the nominee by the Texas senator who finished second in the race and came to Cleveland harboring grievances — and future presidential ambitions. During their convention, Republicans were relentless and often raw in demonizing Clinton. As fired-up supporters at Trump’s acceptance speech broke out in their oft-used refrain of “Lock her up,” the nominee waved them off, and instead declared, “Let’s defeat her in November.” Yet he also accused her of “terrible, terrible crimes.” “This is the legacy of Hillary Clinton: death, destruction, terrorism and weakness,” he said. “But Hillary Clinton’s legacy does not have to be America’s legacy.” In a direct appeal to Americans shaken by a summer of violence at home and around the world, Trump promised that if he takes office in January, “safety will be restored.” He also said young people in predominantly black cities “have as much of a right to live out their dreams as any other child in America.” And he vowed to protect gays and lesbians from violence and oppression, a pledge that was greeted with applause from the crowd. “As a Republican, it is so nice to hear you cheering for what I just said,” he responded. The Democratic convention in Philadelphia, which starts Monday, is expected to be a more orderly affair. Clinton is, if anything, disciplined. Kaine has been active in the Senate on foreign relations and military affairs and built a reputation for working with both parties as Virginia’s governor and mayor of Richmond. “I’m glad the waiting game is nearly over,” Kaine said Thursday. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, a longtime friend of Hillary and Bill Clinton, is still in the mix, according to one of the two Democrats. Both Democrats are familiar with the selection process and spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss it publicly. Kaine’s selection would not be without complication. Liberals have expressed wariness of Kaine for his support of putting the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement on a “fast track” to approval, which both Clinton and primary rival Bernie Sanders oppose. They also note that Kaine recently signed onto a letter asking for less burdensome regulation of regional banks. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Tom Kaine emerges as favorite in Hillary Clinton’s VP search
Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine has emerged as the leading contender to join the Democratic ticket as Hillary Clinton‘s running mate, according to two Democrats, who both cautioned that Clinton has not made a final decision and could yet change directions. The announcement of Clinton’s pick could come as early as Friday afternoon in Florida, a crucial general election battleground state. The timing is aimed at shifting attention away from the end of Donald Trump’s Republican convention and generating excitement before the start of Clinton’s own convention next week in Philadelphia. Kaine, 58, has been a favorite for the vice presidential slot since the start of Clinton’s search process. He has been active in the Senate on foreign relations and military affairs and built a reputation for working across the aisle as Virginia’s governor and mayor of Richmond. “I’m glad the waiting game is nearly over,” Kaine told reporters Thursday after an event in northern Virginia, deflecting questions about whether he was about to join the ticket. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, a longtime friend of Hillary and Bill Clinton, is still in the mix, according to one of the two Democrats, who is close to the Clintons. Both Democrats are familiar with the selection process and spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss it publicly. Clinton’s campaign declined to comment. Kaine’s selection would not be without complication. Liberals have expressed wariness of Kaine for his support for free trade, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership — which both Clinton and primary rival Bernie Sanders oppose. They also note that Kaine recently signed onto a letter asking for less burdensome regulation of regional banks. If Kaine was selected for the ticket, Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, a Democrat and ally of the Clintons, would choose a temporary replacement, but the race for the remainder of Kaine’s term would take place in 2017, raising the possibility that Republicans could win the seat. Vilsack is the longest-serving member of President Barack Obama‘s Cabinet and has known Clinton for years. He first met her through his late brother-in-law, who worked with Clinton on the Watergate Committee in 1972, and she campaigned for Vilsack in 1998 during his surprise victory as Iowa governor. If he was added to the ticket, Vilsack could help Clinton in Iowa and connect with rural America. He also has a compelling personal story: He was orphaned at birth in Pittsburgh and his mother struggled with alcohol and drug addiction. He was traveling in Missouri this week to discuss the perils of drug abuse and the opioid epidemic. Clinton has also considered Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a favorite of liberals; Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper; Labor Secretary Tom Perez; and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro. Clinton opens a two-day campaign swing Friday in Florida. She’s expected to unveil her running mate at either a Friday afternoon rally at the state fairgrounds in Tampa or at a Saturday event at Florida International University in Miami, where two-thirds of the student body is Hispanic. The two locations give Clinton’s campaign the flexibility to make the announcement at the most optimal time. The campaign is expected to first inform donors, volunteers and activists by text message and has been encouraging supporters to sign up for such an update. After the convention, Clinton and her vice presidential choice will depart on a campaign bus tour, reminiscent of Bill Clinton’s “First 1,000 Miles” tour with Al Gore after the party’s 1992 convention. Kaine is a former chairman of the Democratic National Committee and worked as a lawyer on fair housing and civil rights issues. He has been considered a leading vice presidential contender for weeks based on his broad political experience in Virginia, another presidential battleground. “One of the main reasons that I’m being considered is because of Virginia,” Kaine said. “It’s not necessarily just because of me. It’s because Virginia is really important.” The Virginian is seen as a safe choice against Trump and his running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence. Kaine could help Clinton woo moderate voters who have been turned off by Trump’s provocative rhetoric. Kaine campaigned with Clinton last week in northern Virginia, where he spoke briefly in Spanish and argued that Trump was unqualified, untested and untrustworthy. “Do you want a ‘you’re fired’ president or a ‘you’re hired’ president,” Kaine said in Annandale, Virginia, as Clinton nodded. “Do you want a trash-talking president or a bridge-building president?” Kaine took a year off from law school as a young man to work with Jesuit missionaries at a vocational school in Honduras. His friends have described him as someone steeped in his convictions and his Roman Catholic faith. He and his wife, Anne Holton, are longtime members of Richmond’s St. Elizabeth Catholic Church, a predominantly black congregation in a poor part of town. A native of Kansas City, Missouri, Kaine moved to Virginia after meeting Holton at Harvard Law School. She currently serves as Virginia’s secretary of education and is the daughter of former Virginia Gov. A. Linwood Holton Jr., a Republican. The couple have three children; their eldest son, Nat, is serving as a Marine. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
