New PPP national survey has Donald Trump up by 10 points
Donald Trump may or may not have already peaked in the Republican presidential contest, but no other candidate gets close to him in yet another national poll of GOP candidates released on Tuesday. The Public Policy Polling survey has Trump up with 27 percent support. Ben Carson is in second place with 17 percent, and Marco Rubio is next with 13 percent. These are all numbers that were roughly the same as when PPP conducted their last survey back in early September. Rounding out the field in fourth place is Jeb Bush with 10 percent, Ted Cruz is at 7 percent, Carly Fiorina is at 6 percent, and Mike Huckabee and John Kasich are each at 4 percent round out the list of candidates with with decent levels of support. Chris Christie, Rand Paul, and Rick Santorum are all at 2 percent, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, and George Pataki each get 1 percent, and in last place with less than 1 percent is Jim Gilmore. PPP says that Rubio “is really the only candidate who can claim any sort of momentum.” They say that because he’s gone from 5th place at 7 percent to 3rd place at 13 percent over the last five weeks. And he has a 57/24 favorability rating that puts him only behind Ben Carson when it comes to the most broadly liked of the Republican hopefuls. No one other than Rubio has seen more than a 2 point gain since our last poll. Florina’s six percent showing is down two points from a month ago, indicating that her No one’s really lost much ground in the last month either. The biggest decline anyone has seen in their support is 2 points- Trump, Fiorina, and Kasich have all seen that minor dip in the last month. Fiorina being at 6% after registering at 8% on our national poll in late August does suggest that whatever benefit she received from her strong debate performance last month may have already receded. Bush’s 10 percent showing is actually slightly up from a month ago and puts him in the top four, but he’s becoming more and more unpopular with Republican voters overall. Just 34 percent have a favorable opinion of him to 49% with a negative one. His struggles continue to be fueled by strong distrust from voters who identify themselves as ‘very conservative’- his favorability with them is 26/56 and only 2 percent support him for the nomination. Most interestingly, Republican primary voters are more liberal than all of the candidates when it comes to gun control and the economy. Eight-two percent of primary voters support background checks on all gun purchases, to only 13 percent opposed. Supporters of all 15 GOP hopefuls are in support of expanded background checks, including 82/18 support for them from Bush voters. There’s also 54 percent support among GOP voters for increasing the minimum wage to at least $10 an hour. Only 26 percent support keeping it where it is right now and 18 percent support eliminating the federal minimum wage altogether.
Jeb Bush calls Washington culture “incompetent” and “corrupt” in new ad
In a new 90-second video called, “Why I’m Running, “Jeb Bush is shown displaying a fire in his belly in clips from a town hall meeting where he touts his success in Florida as governor, and blasts Washington D.C. and Barack Obama directly. “The source of optimism I have is because I know the American people and its ability to innovate, create, to disrupt, its belief in the future,” Bush says in one clip. “There’s no way that Barack Obama or the progressive liberals in Washington can take away the bigness of this place.” The ad begins with Bush criticizing the D.C. culture, calling it “incompetent” and “in some cases, corrupt,” but says that doesn’t mean it has to be that way (as photos of Obama and Hillary Clinton are shown). He then goes positive and boasts about how he reformed Florida. “What we have to do is stop saying how angry we are about it, and win the election so we can fix it!,” he says, “it’s not about yapping, it’s not about talking, it’s about doing …” The ad will reportedly be screened prior to Bush’s appearance tonight at the Scott County Republican Party Ronald Reagan dinner in Bettendorf, Iowa. Watch below:
New Iowa poll has Jeb Bush in 4th place, Marco Rubio tied for 5th place
Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio continue to struggle in the polls – this time in a new Quinnipiac survey of voters in Iowa, the site of the first election in the Republican race for president. As has been the case in recent polls, Donald Trump and Dr. Ben Carson lead the field. Trump is at 27 percent in the Hawkeye State, while Carson is just six percentage points behind with 21 percent. Texas Senator Ted Cruz is next with 9 percent. Then comes Bush in fourth place with 6 percent. Rubio follows next with 5 percent, where he’s tied with Former Hewlett-Packard executive Carly Fiorina and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee both are at 4 percent. Then the shocker: Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is down to just 3 percent in the survey. That’s a 15-percentage point drop in two months in the Quinnipiac survey. Walker has been at the top of many Iowa polls for most of the year, but no candidate appears to have suffered more from the rise of Donald Trump than Walker, who had been predicted by many pundits before the campaign to begin to be one of the most promising candidates to win the nomination. “The Iowa Republican Caucus looks like a two-man race in which the Washington experience that has traditionally been a major measuring stick that voters have used to choose candidates is a now a big negative,” says Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, speaking of the rise of Trump and Carson. However, 25 percent of likely caucus-goers also put Trump at the top of the list of candidates they would definitely not support, followed by Bush at 23 percent and Chris Christie at 14 percent. Trump has a 60-35 percent favorability rating among likely GOP Caucus participants, but Carson has a 79-6 percent favorability rating. Quinnipiac polled 1,038 likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa via landlines and cellphones, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Jeb Bush releases ad pushing his tax cut plan
Jeb Bush unveiled his tax plan last week at a poultry-cooling equipment facility in North Carolina, and his campaign team has edited footage from that event into a new ad they released on Sunday. The plan would reduce the number of tax brackets that Americans pay into from seven to three, reducing the lowest amount that anyone would pay to 28 percent, which was the highest level when Ronald Reagan left office in 1988. Middle-class tax rates would fall to 10 percent for families with incomes up to $89,000 and to 25 precent for incomes up to $163,800. Corporate, capital gains and dividend taxes would all fall to 20 percent, while the estate tax is eliminated. Bush also would provide immediate expensing of plant and equipment for businesses, which the Tax Foundation says is the most pro-growth tax fix to create jobs and higher incomes. In a nod to the economic populism, he would also eliminate the advantage for private-equity and other high-dollar financial managers known as the “carried interest” loophole. “For years, wealthy individuals have deducted a much greater share of their income than everyone else,” Bush wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed. “We will retain the deductibility of charitable contributions but cap the deductions used by the wealthy and Washington special interests, enabling tax-rate cuts across the board for everyone.” Check out the video below:
New WaPo-ABC News poll shows persistent resistance from conservatives for Jeb Bush
Although the big headlines coming out of the Washington Post/ABC News poll released Monday afternoon were all about Donald Trump leading the rest of the GOP presidential field by double digits, it also indicates that Jeb Bush‘ month-long momentum may be ebbing slightly. Trump leads the field with 24 points in the national survey, Scott Walker is second with 13 percent, and Bush is third at 12 percent. Mike Huckabee is fourth in the race with 8 percent, Marco Rubio is fifth at 7 percent, Ben Carson and Rand Paul are at 6 percent, Ted Cruz and Rick Perry are at 3 percent, and John Kasich and Bobby Jindal are at 1 percent. An important caveat on the Trump rating. The poll was taken for four days last week: Thursday through Sunday. On Sunday, the day after Trump’s comment on John McCain not being a war hero went viral to a slew of negative commentary, his numbers slumped to single-digits. The poll also brings down Bush a notch. The former Florida governor has been polling strong the past month, in the weeks since his June 15 presidential candidacy announcement. In most national surveys for the past couple of weeks, he has been 1-2 with Trump. His drop to third place in this survey may indicate less a reduction in popularity for Bush than with the explanation that Walker is enjoying a bump after his official entrance into the race last week, with the poll taken just days later. Looking deeper into the poll, however, conveys some concern for Team Bush. He is still viewed skeptically by some Republicans. Twenty-two percent of Republicans say Bush’s views on most issues are too liberal for them. In comparison, only 17 percent of Republicans say Trump’s views are too liberal for them. And while a majority (62 percent) of Republicans polled say they definitely would not vote for Trump in the general election, an alarming 44 percent say they would not vote for Bush in the general election. The poll was taken before Bush’s Tallahassee speech Monday that had to warm the hearts of conservatives everywhere. Among the bullet points was a recommendation for swift and permanent cuts to federal agencies, specifically endorsing a “three out, one in” policy of replacing only every third federal employee who exits the government with the exception of “vital” areas such as national security. The Post-ABC News poll was conducted July 16-19 among a random national sample of 1,002 adults, including landline and cellphone respondents. Overall results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Judge won’t release Siegelman on appeal bond
A federal judge on Thursday refused to free former Alabama Gov. Don Siegelman from prison while he continues to appeal his 2006 bribery conviction. Siegelman has raised significant issues, but the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals is unlikely to grant Siegelman a new trial since the court has already rejected similar arguments from his co-defendant, Richard Scrushy, U.S. District Judge Clay Land of Georgia said in his 31-page order. A federal jury in 2006 convicted Siegelman of federal funds bribery on allegations that he sold a seat on a hospital regulatory board to former HealthSouth CEO Richard Scrushy in exchange for $500,000 in donations to Siegelman’s unsuccessful 1999 campaign to get Alabama voters to approve a state lottery. Siegelman was also convicted of obstruction of justice. Siegelman, 68, has been serving a 6 1/2-year sentence at a Louisiana prison camp. Siegelman attended a Monday hearing in Montgomery before Land while shackled and wearing a red jail jumpsuit. The former Democratic governor is arguing his 2006 trial was tainted by the involvement of a prosecutor with ties to GOP politics. His lawyers also say the trial judge made legal mistakes when sentencing Siegelman. Then-U.S. Attorney Leura Canary announced her recusal from the investigation in 2002, three years before Siegelman was indicted, after Siegelman’s lawyer made an issue of her husband’s work in GOP politics. Siegelman’s lawyers argued she still remained improperly involved in the case. Justice Department lawyer John-Alex Romano argued Canary had no decision-making role in the case and handled only the management duties of her office. In his order, Land expressed concern over some of the issues raised by Siegelman, particularly that the court did not let him investigate the extent of Canary’s involvement. Land said there was some evidence that Canary did not completely “divorce” herself from the case, and he believes the trial court should have let Siegelman get more information through documents or testimony. However, he said that the 11th Circuit ruled against similar discovery requests by Scrushy, and Siegelman had not proven why the appeals court would rule any differently for him. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Alabama Supreme Court says no electronic bingo
Alabama’s highest court on Friday upheld the attorney general’s raid on Center Stage gambling hall and made it clear that bingo can’t legally be played on electronic machines. The Alabama Supreme Court ruled bingo games allowed in some counties are traditional games that involve “meaningful human interaction in a group setting,” not games played on electronic machines. Attorney General Luther Strange had state police raid Center Stage near Dothan on July 25, 2012. They seized 691 gambling machines and $288,657 in cash. The Houston County Economic Development Authority, which operated Center Stage, challenged the raid and contended the machines were a legal form of bingo. A Houston County judge ruled the machines illegal and said the state could destroy the machines and keep the money. The Alabama Supreme Court affirmed that decision 9-0 Friday. “This ruling from the highest court in our state once again confirms that so-called ‘electronic bingo’ is illegal under state law,” Strange said. The Supreme Court based its decision on an earlier case upholding a 2009 raid at a Lowndes County casino. The justices said bingo is a form of a lottery, which is prohibited by the Alabama Constitution. They noted, however, that several counties, including Houston County, have constitutional amendments allowing bingo. They said bingo refers to traditional bingo with players using paper cards and numbers being drawn, and a win being announced. The games at Center Stage featured an electronic depiction of a bingo card, but the justices said that will not suffice. In earlier decisions involving Lowndes and Greene counties, the court said an announcer must be involved in bingo. The court went further Friday, saying the announcer must call the numbers one at a time and allow time between each number for a player to physically mark the card. “In accordance with the foregoing we reiterate today that the game traditionally known as bingo is not one played by or within an electronic or computerized machine, terminal, or server, but is one played outside of machines and electronic circuitry. It is a group activity, and one that requires a meaningful measure of human interaction and skill,” the justices said. Dothan attorney Ernie Hornsby, who represented the Houston County Economic Development Authority, called the ruling “extremely disappointing.” He said Houston County was the only county with bingo where a judge validated the bonds used to build the gambling complex, and the validation was clear that bingo machines would be used to help pay off the bonds. The Supreme Court said the bond validation process did not decide the legality of the machines seized by the state. Since 2009, state officials have raided several non-Indian-run gambling halls as they did Center Stage. Some have reopened. One that has not reopened is VictoryLand in Shorter, which was once the state’s largest casino. A Montgomery judge held a trial in September on whether the state can keep the games and cash seized in a 2013 raid, but he has not yet ruled. Assistant Attorney General John Kachelman, who is handling that case, said Friday’s ruling could be considered by the judge. During the VictoryLand trial, the casino’s attorney made an issue of the attorney general not presenting a gambling expert to testify how VictoryLand’s games worked. In Friday’s decision, the Supreme Court said expert testimony is not necessary. VictoryLand’s attorney, Joe Espy, was out of his office Friday and did not immediately return a call seeking comment. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Democrat Erick Wright faces two-term GOP Rep. Martha Roby in CD 2
First-time Democratic candidate Erick Wright is looking to bring compromise to a “do nothing” Congress if he is chosen to represent Alabama’s Second Congressional District. Incumbent U.S. Rep. Martha Roby focuses on her accomplishments, according to AL.com, which includes protecting military bases in the district, restricting federal regulations and demanding federal action on the scandal at the Veterans Administration. A former Troy University football player, the 31-year-old Wright is a political newcomer, facing Roby, a Republican seeking a third term. Neither candidate had a primary opponent for the district covering the Montgomery area through the southeast part of the state. Wright worked for seven years in the insurance industry before receiving a bachelor’s degree in risk management in 2004. He left his insurance business Jan. 1 to run for Roby’s Congressional seat. Wright supports raising the federal minimum wage to $10.10 per hour. “If you work 40 hours a week you shouldn’t have to beg for assistance or give up your dignity for food stamps,” he told reporter Mike Cason of AL.com. To bet the GOP on board for wage hikes, Wright is willing to offer a tradeoff, such as lowering taxes on business. He blames Roby for not standing firm on civil liberties on legislation like the Patriot Act. The need is for a fundamental change of approach in Congress, Wright says, from reactive to proactive. During the campaign, Wright called for debates with Roby and attended candidate forums in Troy, Dothan and Montgomery. Roby did not. Roby was busy doing her job, she says, working for her constituents, “to be their conscience in Washington.” Roby is a 38-year-old attorney and served on the Montgomery City Council, before elected to Congress in 2010. Roby spearheaded Alabama’s Congressional delegation to the Air Force from relocating seven C-130 aircraft out of Maxwell Air Force Base, which could have cost hundreds of jobs. She is also a severe critic of the Veterans Administration scandal, which resulted in delayed care, false records and other problems. After calling for changes at Montgomery’s Central Alabama Veterans Health Care System, where some of the most severe problems occurred, the facility’s director was removed. The need for improvement in veterans’ care remains, Roby says. “I’m not going to allow that issue to be swept under the rug,” she adds. Roby understands Wright’s concerns over civil liberties in the search for terrorists, but she believes Congress so far struck the right balance.
A rundown of state legislative races to watch on Election Day
Election Day is almost upon us, with a number of Alabama Senate and House races hanging in the balance. Several incumbents are in threatened seats, but precisely which ones in trouble are open to debate. Republican leaders have their theories, while Democrats are a little less forthcoming on their opinions. After talking with both GOP and Democratic state leaders, Jim Stinson of AL.com began to see a pattern emerge of which races both parties will carefully watch as results come in on Tuesday. It’s not as if the GOP majority in the House and Senate is in any danger. Republican House Speaker Mike Hubbard tells Stinson that the “supermajority” of GOP lawmakers since 2010 will remain. Nevertheless, Alabama Democrats, with the powerful Alabama Education Association, is looking to chip away at the GOP supermajority. Alabama Democratic chair Nancy Worley, believes there are some “very close races” on the Party radar. Turnout will certainly help Democrats in those races. One issue for Democrats is Hubbard’s Oct. 20 indictment, which he calls a “political witch hunt.” In a statement on Friday, Hubbard said the GOP will be aggressively pursuing the supermajorities on Tuesday, connecting the Alabama Democrats to the policies of President Barack Obama. Some groups are starting to run ads against the GOP, with hidden connections to liberal third-party groups. Races to watch on Tuesday include: Democratic targets: House District 7, where Republican state Rep. Ken Johnson faces Democratic former state Rep. Jody Letson, in the district that covers Lawrence and Winston counties. House District 89, where Republican state Rep. Alan C. Boothe once again faces Democrat Joel Williams, for the region covering parts of Dale and Pike counties. Boothe, a Democrat at the time, beat Williams in the 1998 primary. GOP targets: House District 16, where Democratic state Rep. Daniel Boman faces Republican Kyle South in the seat covering parts of Fayette, Lamar and Tuscaloosa counties. In 2011, Boman switched parties. House District 23, withState Rep. John Robinson facing Republican James Hanes Jr. in the district covering Jackson County. Senate District 1, covering parts of Colbert and Lauderdale counties currently held by the retiring Democratic state Tammy Irons. Democrat Mike Curtis and Republican Tim Melson are facing off. Senate District 22, covering parts of Baldwin, Choctaw, Clarke, Conecuh, Escambia, Mobile, Monroe, and Washington counties, held by Democratic state Sen. Mark Keahey, who is retiring. Facing off there are Democrat Susan Smith and Republican Greg Albritton. Hubbard acknowledged TV ads and mailers are out in Lee County District 79 blasting his opponent, Democrat Shirley Scott-Harris. Democrats are focusing on Senate president pro tempore Del Marsh in District 12, which covers Calhoun, Clay and Talladega Counties. Democrat Taylor Stewart is on the ballot there.
