Steve Flowers: Lay of the land in U.S. Senate sprint
As the race for our open U.S. Senate seat begins, let’s look at the lay of the land. First-of-all it will be a sprint. The race is upon us with the primaries August 15 and the run-off six weeks later September 26. The Republican primary victor will be coronated December 12. We, in the Heart of Dixie, are a one-party state when it comes to major statewide offices. Winning the GOP primary is tantamount to election. Therefore, our new senator will probably be elected September 26. With 10 Republicans in the race, it will be highly unlikely that anybody could win without a run-off, so the initial goal is to make the run-off. There are amazingly 19 total candidates who qualified. You can write the 8 Democrats off as irrelevant because a Democrat cannot win in Alabama. With 11 Republicans running, it appears to be a crowded race. However, 6 of the 11 are “run for the fun of it” qualifiers. Therefore, even though the field has a lot of horses, there are only 5 of the 19 who could be considered thoroughbreds and probably only 3 who have a viable chance to win. Former Chief Justice Roy Moore and former State Attorney General and Robert Bentley appointee to the Senate, Luther Strange, are more than likely headed to a Republican run-off. Huntsville and Tennessee Valley Congressman Mo Brooks has the best chance to challenge for a run-off spot. Initial polling has Roy Moore at 30 percent, Luther Strange at 14 percent and Mo Brooks at 7 percent. Roy Moore’s removal from his post as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court by some vague Judicial Inquiry Commission for being against gay marriage has made him a hero and martyr among Alabama’s conservative and religious voters. There is a pent-up desire to right a wrong among the Alabama people. It is obviously showing up in the polling, but it could be illuminated and result in a higher than anticipated 30 percent. Polls are a picture of the total pool of voters. However, the final poll and the one that really matters is who actually shows up to vote August 15. Roy Moore’s folks will be there, they are ardent and mad. They will not be at the lake or the beach. In fact, if there is an extremely low turnout, Moore could conceivably win without a run-off. It is unlikely that occurs. However, he more than likely finishes first and has a spot in the run-off. Luther Strange will be fighting to hold on to the other spot in the Sept. 26 final dance. He will more than likely prevail in his quest to get into the run-off and keep the seat. Luther will have $10 million of Washington establishment super PAC ammunition at his disposal. It is hard to overcome that kind of money. It is the mother’s milk of politics. Luther is banking on the fact that most U.S. Senate seats are bought by special interest money. Folks, $10 million washes a lot of taint away from the Bentley to Luther deal. It looks inevitable that Roy Moore and Luther Strange will be in a run-off and the prevailing opinion is that Moore cannot get over 50 percent. However, polling indicates that neither Moore nor Strange can get over 50 percent. They both have a large base of detractors. This race was ripe to be won by an outside rich man who could spend $10 million of their own money. “Yella Fella” Jimmy Rane walked away from a U.S. Senate seat that was his for the taking. Congressman Mo Brooks has the best chance to knock Strange out of the run-off. He starts off with a base of support in the Tennessee Valley and $1.2 million in his federal war chest. If he were to raise $3 million, he would probably beat Luther and ultimately would probably beat Moore. Brooks is to the right of Attila the Hun and belongs to a right-wing congressional group known as the Freedom Caucus. There are some very rich right-wing zealots around the country who give to Freedom Caucus candidates. They may load ole’ Mo up and teach the Elitist Establishment Mitch McConnell crowd a lesson. If state Sen. Trip Pittman, from Baldwin County, could raise $5 million he could sell. He is the only serious candidate from the vote-rich Baldwin/Mobile area. Dr. Randy Brinson has the perfect background, narrative and family values story. However, like Pittman, he needs $5 million to tell his story. We will see. See you next week. ___ Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state Legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
When will Robert Bentley, Legislature answer ‘the call,’ put lottery on Nov. ballot?
During the past couple of months, everywhere I go people continually ask me why in the world the Legislature could not simply put the issue of whether they could vote for or against a lottery on the November ballot. The fact that this inquiry has lingered for this long tells me that folks are upset about this travesty. They are mad at the Legislature. However, the blame lies with the governor. Indeed, the Legislature met in a special session to address this issue of whether or not to put the lottery proposal on the ballot and let you vote on this lingering issue. Most polls indicate that the good people of Alabama would vote in favor of it, provided there are no sweetheart deals, hidden chicanery or favoritism in the proposal. Most Republicans would vote in favor of it because they are tired of their money being sent to Georgia, Florida and Tennessee to help their schools, roads and indigents rather than keep their money at home helping Alabamians. Folks in the Heart of Dixie are going to buy lottery tickets. They are just going to buy them in our surrounding states. It was noticeable that a good many of the legislators, who represent border counties, voted against the referendum. This is similar to bygone days when most of the dry counties in the state continued to vote dry due to an ironic coalition between the bootleggers and preachers. I seriously think that some of these border counties are reaping a bonanza in gas tax revenue from the throng of cars headed to border states to buy lottery tickets. They say that cars are backed up for miles around every state border when these super Powerball extravaganzas occur. Well, to answer your questions, it is difficult to pass anything in a congress or Legislature. That is why they have the old adage, “It takes an act of Congress to get something accomplished.” In Alabama, extraordinary special sessions of the Legislature are the way to go to get something accomplished if you are the governor. The Legislature has to address what the governor calls the legislature into session for, it is called “the call.” George Wallace was a master of using special sessions to get what he wanted done. He would call them repeatedly. However, before he called them, he would have his ducks in a row. He would have called you on the phone, had you visit with him one on one in his office at the capitol or at the governor’s mansion. He would know what the vote count was on his issue before he called a special session. He would not waste taxpayer money on a session without any accomplishment. Well folks, our good ole doctor Governor Bentley ain’t George Wallace. Ole Bentley did waste money that the state General Fund does not have to squander. That is why the special session was called. It was designed to help bolster the beleaguered General Fund. Bentley failed because he did just the opposite of Wallace. He did not call any legislators. They heard about the session on the news. Even though Gov. Bentley shoulders the blame for failure to at least put the lottery issue on the ballot, he has shown profound leadership with his creation of an advisory council on gambling. This is a prudent, rational, and unbiased approach to the entire gambling issue. Bentley is right when he says the issue of gambling in the state is something that will never end unless we come together and figure out a way for the people of this state to have a say in its resolution. This advisory panel has done a thorough job of studying this issue. Jim Byard and Clinton Carter, two bright stars in Bentley’s cabinet, have led the comprehensive study of gaming. The commission looked at what other states are doing to reap revenue from gambling that already exists to get a clearer picture of what a lottery would generate for state coffers. They have looked at all gambits of gambling in the state, not just the lottery. They are designing a long-term approach to present to the legislature. The administration has extended the panel’s deadline to report to the legislature from January 31 to June, probably because they do not want to deal with gambling during this legislative session. The final solution must allow Alabamians to vote on this issue. See you next week. ___ Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
