Martha Roby Weekly Column: Be prepared during hurricane season
It’s hard to believe that July is halfway over, and summer will be ending soon. Temperatures here in Southeast Alabama continue to reach nearly 100 degrees on any given day, but fall and cooler weather will be here before we know it. In less than a month, students across our district and state will begin another school year, and shortly after that, college football season kicks off. While this time of year brings a lot of excitement, be mindful that hurricane season lasts until the end of November, and it’s extremely important that we take the necessary precautions to protect our loved ones and property. Hurricanes are one of nature’s most powerful and destructive forces. On average, 12 tropical storms, six of which become hurricanes, form over the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or Gulf of Mexico during this time each year. Unfortunately, many people who live in the Second District recently experienced the devastation this season can bring when Hurricane Michael made landfall last October. Last month, I shared that Congress approved and the President signed into law disaster relief legislation that will aid our farmers. It is my understanding that the process of making these funds available will soon be underway. As we continue to rebuild together, and as we monitor the ongoing severe weather events happening in the Gulf of Mexico, I would like to take this opportunity to share with you some safety tips from the National Weather Service (NWS) to prepare for storms that may impact us in the months ahead. Here’s a useful checklist to review prior to warnings of a hurricane: 1. Know your zone. The Second District doesn’t have any hurricane evacuation zones, but our neighbors in Baldwin and Mobile Counties reside in hurricane evacuation areas. Keep this in mind if you’re vacationing nearby in the upcoming months or if you have friends and relatives who live further south in Alabama. A list of evacuation zone maps is available at www.flash.org/2017EvacuationZones.pdf. 2. Assemble an emergency kit. Your kit items should be stored in airtight plastic bags, then placed in one or two easy-to-carry containers, such as plastic bins or duffel bags. Your emergency kit should include the following items: one gallon of water per person per day for at least three days, at least a three-day supply of non-perishable food and a manual can opener, battery-powered radio, a flashlight and extra batteries, a first aid kit, a whistle to signal for help, and local maps. You can download the rest of the recommended supplies list and read about additional suggested supplies by visiting www.ready.gov/build-a-kit. 3. Write or review your family emergency plan. Before an emergency happens, sit down with your family and close friends and decide how you will get in contact with each other, where you will go, and what you will do in a weather emergency. Keep a copy of this plan in your emergency kit. You can start working on your plan by visiting www.ready.gov/hurricanes. 4. Review your insurance policies. This is an important step to ensure that you have adequate coverage for your home and personal property. 5. Understand the NWS forecast language. There’s a difference between a hurricane watch and a hurricane warning, and it’s important to have a strong understanding of the two. Read about this by visiting www.weather.gov/safety/hurricane-ww. Hurricanes can happen along any U.S. coast and can impact areas more than 100 miles inland. I hope you will share this information with loved ones during this time of year especially, remembering that hurricanes are typically most active during the month of September. In many cases, planning and preparation can make a huge difference, so I encourage you to prepare now and remind your friends and family to do the same. In the meantime, my family and I will be praying for an uneventful hurricane season in Southeast Alabama. Martha Roby represents Alabama’s Second Congressional District. She lives in Montgomery, Alabama, with her husband Riley and their two children.
Daniel Sutter: The house that survived the hurricane
Last October, Hurricane Michael slammed the Florida panhandle with 155 mile per hour (mph) winds. Mexico Beach was largely destroyed, except for one exceptional, and now much reported on, house called the Sand Palace. Does it offer a guide for building for the future? Strengthening buildings to reduce damage from natural disasters is called mitigation, and is a topic I have researched. I can’t tell anyone how much they should spend to strengthen their home, but I can help you think about this question. Engineers can design buildings to pretty much withstand nature’s extremes.The Sand Palace was built to withstand 240 mph winds. It is built on 40-foot pilings with one foot thick concrete reinforced walls. Steel cables anchor the roof. Florida’s 2001 building code requires construction to withstand 120 mph winds, and existing homes were not required to be brought up to the code. The Sand Palace was built to survive a hurricane like Michael, while surrounding structures were not. How much extra did the hurricane-proof design cost? Owners Lebron Lackey and Russell King of Tennessee think that it added 15 to 20 percent to the cost. Let’s round up and say 20 percent. The 20 percent is added “only” to the cost of the structure, not total property value. The home for a $700,000 listing might only cost $400,000, so the added cost would be $80,000. The full cost of mitigation, though, exceeds $80,000. Hurricane-proofing altered the Sand Palace’s design, reducing the number of windows, scrapping a planned balcony, and only a small roof overhang. The design diminished the enjoyment provided by the residence and is part of the cost. Still, spending $80,000 to prevent destruction of a $400,000 home (and protect the contents and residents) sounds like a good deal. Especially if we knew the home would be struck by 155 mph winds within a year of construction. Yet hurricanes as powerful as Michael, rated at the very top of Category 4 of the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind intensity scale, are rare. Only three highest-rated Category 5 hurricanes have hit the continental United States since 1900, with only Camille striking the Gulf Coast. The Sand Palace’s engineering primarily prevents destruction from a really powerful hurricane. Yet since World War II, only two parts of the Atlantic and Gulf coast have experienced winds stronger than Michael’s. Spending $80,000 to prevent a disaster likely to never happen is less attractive. Timing also matters. While the return on the Sand Palace’s construction occurred within a year; the owners might have waited fifty years for a Michael-type storm to hit. Time is money. The money invested in mitigation, if invested in stocks or real estate, could easily have yielded enough money to replace the home after a monster hurricane fifty years in the future. Valuing mitigation involves even more details. The design will likely reduce losses from weaker hurricanes, storm surge, and tornadoes. We would also need the exact cost of hurricane-proofing for homes of different sizes and designs plus hurricane landfall probabilities by Saffir-Simpson category. The calculations can only tell if the investment is worthwhile given all the assumptions made. The value of mitigation depends on how we value protecting ourselves, our loved ones, and our possessions. Two people can reasonably disagree about whether a hurricane-proof design is worth the cost. Neither is wrong, because the values are personal. This is why building codes, I think, provide a poor way to encourage natural hazards mitigation. Building codes don’t encourage; they force everyone to build to the specified level of wind resistance. Mr. Lackey and Mr. King decided that the Sand Palace’s resilience was worth the cost, and many others will likely follow their example. Yet Florida’s 120 mph building code likely already makes many homeowners spend more on mitigation than they desire. Just because we can build homes to resist the strongest hurricanes does not mean that we should. No single level of protection is right for everyone when the values at stake are personal. ••• Daniel Sutter is the Charles G. Koch Professor of Economics with the Manuel H. Johnson Center for Political Economy at Troy University and host of Econversations on TrojanVision. The opinions expressed in this column are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect the views of Troy University.
Rauf Bolden: Should you stay in Orange Beach during a hurricane?
Living on intimate terms with hurricane disaster is something Orange Beach residents accept, being mentally prepared, understanding how hurricanes work, securing their property against flooding, actively debating the decision to evacuate or not. The community conversation is often peppered with residents’ stories of past evacuations, like not being able to get back after Hurricane Ivan (September, 2004), shading residents’ decisions in favor of staying. “The majority of natural disasters over the last ten years involved flooding. Flood related events including hurricanes, severe storms, heavy downpours, and others, accounted for more than seven out of ten presidential disaster declarations.” according to a report from the Federal Emergency Management database of Disaster Declarations. “Summarizing [the number of] Presidential Disaster Declarations (PDD) from 2008-2017: 73 percent were Flood Related, and 27 percent were Non-Flood Related,” according to a report on Vox. For those planning to stay in Orange Beach during a hurricane, reviewing your family’s plan is essential, taking input from each family member, including the children, allowing them to buy-in as a main component, helping provision food, water (filling the bathtubs), paper products, pet treats, medicines, bandages, disinfectant, propane, and fuel. “I moved here from the frozen tundra of the midwest seven years ago at age 50. I live on the beach. I’m a property manager there. I’ve got a lot personally and professionally invested in Orange Beach, but if an evacuation is called for during the next hurricane, I will most certainly leave,” said Sarah DeLazzer, a condo resident. Remaining during a hurricane is the biggest game-day decision of your life, knowing your vessel or home is fortified and up to the task, inspecting its structural integrity for weathering the storm will give you confidence, not arrogance. You must feel self-assured, knowing you will not need to call 911, because they are not coming! Carol Belmonte, a 30-year veteran of hurricane evacuations in Orange Beach will stay, having purchased her home in Bear Point 25-years ago. She said, [when you leave] it takes two weeks to get back on the island. They let all the FEMA people and contractors on before us [home owners]. As illustrated throughout Hurricane Florence (September 9, 2018) preparation for flooding is key. The Baldwin County Emergency Management Agency (EMA) has the most comprehensive resource database for Orange Beach residents, supplying information for family, home, business, special needs, the elderly, and pets (see video). “The best thing I’ve seen all day [Hurricane Florence] was three households of these older neighbors pitching in to clear a tree from another neighbor’s front yard [near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina] while the storm was still very active,” according to a report by Jerry Tominack on Fox News. “We’ve not had much wind [Hurricane Florence] but all ditches are full and the rain isn’t really stopping. It just keeps sprinkling between short heavy rains. We’re getting prepared to help folks from flooded areas,” said Ann Slaughter in a telephone call from her home in the small hamlet of Haw River north of Graham, North Carolina. The public-awareness campaign ahead of Hurricane Florence [September 2018] was stunning, giving people adequate time to evacuate. The government changed lanes on the evacuation route, accommodating outgoing traffic. This advance-warning system is available in Orange Beach, arming residents with reliable information on wind strength and storm surge. If you choose to stay, understanding how tropical storms develop, feeding off the warm waters in the Gulf will give you a mental advantage, during the height of the event. As old sailors say, easterly winds and a falling barometer are the first signs, the weather will get worse. Southerly winds indicate the eye-of-the-storm is to the west of you, and you are in the worst quadrant. Northerly winds show the eye-of-the-storm is to the east of you, and you are in the best quadrant. Westerly winds and a rising barometer are good signs, the worst is over, remembering torrential rains and flooding hold the biggest danger to life and loss-of-property. “Most private insurance policies don’t protect against damage from floods caused by rain, overflowing rivers or storm surge. For that damage, the National Flood Insurance Program, which is run by FEMA, provides most of the coverage,” according to a report by CNN. Perhaps you should buy flood insurance if you live in a hurricane-prone state. Look at all the victims of Florence, Harvey and Lane without coverage. Three 1000-year storms in the past four years is an indicator of more storm-based flooding in the future as the planet’s oceans warm. “’Florence’s heavy rains will cause ponding and flooding in places that neither the FEMA coastal flooding maps or [sic] the FEMA river flooding maps are going to do a good job of predicting,’ said Joe Fargione, science director at the Nature Conservancy,” according to a report on Vox. Luckily we have better pre-storm information than we did during Hurricane Ivan (September 2004), providing accurate five-day assessments for wind and flood preparation, raising the question of why state taxpayers should spend tens-of-millions on a second-evacuation bridge in Orange Beach, knowing there is enough advanced notice to organize your affairs and leave the island. Orange Beach, Alabama Mayor Tony Kennon is obsessed, seemingly clawing at the institutions of government, lobbying any state legislator who will listen for an unneeded bridge west of the Foley Beach Express. Midterm election victories may inspire newly-elected officials, giving them the courage to pause funding for a second bridge in Orange Beach ($87 million in state funds), re-allocating these monies to a multitude of infrastructure repairs across the state. Mayor Kennon said on Facebook (June 2018), “[You should] come to a council meeting so that u can get the facts, the real truth and stop being educated into further ignorance [by this Facebook Group of 2800+ members]”: End The #BridgeToNowhere. In all fairness we should hear him out, perhaps a venue where Mayor Kennon does not hold the gavel, possibly an Alabama House of Representatives Special-Select Subcommittee with power to subpoena email, calendar and text
Terri Sewell visits to Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands focusing on hurricane recovery efforts
With the House going out of session ahead of the the August District Work Period, more commonly known as August Recess, Alabama 7th District U.S. Rep. Terri Sewell is using this time to join her peers to visit to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands focusing on hurricane recovery efforts. The group, which left Thursday, will meet with families, local officials and leaders, faith groups, faith groups, and community groups over the next two days to discuss effective recovery efforts and what steps must be taken to ensure that every community receives the resources it needs to rebuild. “A year after the hurricanes hit, too many families in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are still without clean water, without power, and without roofs on their homes,” said Sewell. “Our delegation visit will bring attention to this ongoing crisis and needed oversight to federal recovery efforts.” She continued, “This Administration’s neglect for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands after they were devastated by Hurricane Maria is nothing short of disgraceful. We have a responsibility to help our fellow Americans recover from one of the worst natural disasters of this decade. As another hurricane season approaches, the need for action is urgent.” In addition to Sewell, the Members of the delegation are: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), House Minority Leader Rep. Luis Gutiérrez (D-IL), Judiciary Committee Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D-NY), Ranking Member, Small Business Committee; Natural Resources Committee; Financial Services Committee Rep. Shelia Jackson-Lee (D-TX), Judiciary Committee; Homeland Security Committee Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA), Ranking Member, Rules Committee; Agriculture Committee Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY), Financial Services Committee; Foreign Affairs Committee Rep. Betty McCollum (D-MN), Appropriations Committee Rep. Terri Sewell (D-AL), Ways & Means Committee; Intelligence Committee Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM), Agriculture Committee; Chair, Congressional Hispanic Caucus Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-CA), Energy & Commerce Committee Rep. Robin Kelly (D-IL), Oversight & Government Reform Committee; Foreign Affairs Committee Rep. Stacey Plaskett (D-VI), Transportation & Infrastructure Committee; Oversight & Government Reform Committee; Agriculture Committee Rep. Dwight Evans (D-PA), Agriculture Committee; Small Business Committee Rep. Val Demings (D-FL), Judiciary Committee; Homeland Security Committee Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D-NY), Education & Workforce Committee; Small Business Committee; Foreign Affairs Committee
Donald Trump signs $36.5 billion emergency aid bill for disasters
President Donald Trump has signed a $36.5 billion emergency aid measure to refill disaster accounts, provide a cash infusion to Puerto Rico and bail out the federal flood insurance program. The president signed the bill Thursday after the Senate sent him the measure earlier this week to help Florida, Texas and Puerto Rico after a devastating string of hurricanes. The money will also help Western states dealing with massive wildfires. To date, Congress has approved more than $50 billion in disaster aid this fall, but more money will be needed. The states and Puerto Rico continue to assess the damage from an onslaught of damaging storms. Republished with permission from the Associated Press.
Daniel Sutter: The U.S. hurricane drought
Last weekend marked ten years since Hurricane Wilma struck Florida as a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity scale. Wilma was the last major hurricane (categories 3, 4 and 5) to strike the U.S. Ten years is the longest span between major hurricane landfalls since 1851, exceeding the longest prior drought (1860-1869) by over a year. The hurricane future appeared very different ten years ago. Global warming was allegedly making hurricanes more frequent and devastating, and hurricanes were going to get worse. The busy 2004 and 2005 seasons certainly made hurricanes seem more frequent. The 2005 Atlantic season featured 28 named storms (we ran through our alphabet and had to use Greek letters as names) and 15 hurricanes, both records. Katrina devastated New Orleans and the Mississippi coast that year. Seven major and thirteen total hurricanes struck the U.S. in 2004-05. Hurricanes also seemed more devastating than ever. Katrina caused $100 billion in damage (adjusted for inflation) and the highest U.S. death toll since 1928. At the end of 2005, 6 of the 8 costliest hurricanes on record had occurred in the previous two years. This part of the tale, however, was misleading. Economists know to adjust historical dollar figures for inflation. But adjusting for inflation does not make damage from past and present hurricanes fully comparable. Increases in population and wealth mean that hurricanes have a lot more property to destroy now. Damage normalizations assuming that damage will increase proportionally with population and wealth per person provide more accurate comparisons. Normalizations provide an educated guess about the damage we could expect if past hurricanes occurred today. Normalization dramatically increases the damage measured in past hurricanes. Consider the “Great Miami Hurricane” of 1926. Miami Beach has grown from a population of 644 in 1920 to 90,000 today, and is home to some very expensive real estate. Normalized damage from the Great Miami Hurricane exceeds $200 billion, or more than double Katrina’s total. Once normalized, hurricane damage has not been increasing over time. Increases in population and property at risk, what researchers call societal vulnerability, explain rising damages. Societal vulnerability has increased significantly. The population of Atlantic and Gulf coast counties, for example, has increased from under 6 million in 1900 to almost 38 million in 2010. The value of insured property at risk from hurricanes now exceeds $10 trillion. Societal vulnerability is not necessarily bad. The U.S. population has more than quadrupled since 1900, and people must live somewhere. Areas safe from hurricanes can face tornado, earthquake, or tsunami risk. Furthermore, Americans value living and vacationing near the ocean, while many industries must locate near the coast. We can now afford what previously would have been catastrophic losses. Coastal development is worthwhile as long as the value created exceeds the potential hurricane damage. The extra costs will be reflected in prices of rental or vacation properties, or goods like gasoline or chemicals. Several government policies, however, subsidize hurricane losses and thus encourage development when the value created does not exceed the extra costs. The two most prominent policies are state homeowners insurance regulation and the National Flood Insurance Program. Both of these policies push some of the costs of insurance against hurricanes on to other Americans. Does the U.S. hurricane drought prove that global warming is not occurring? Not necessarily. This past decade has witnessed some active Atlantic hurricane seasons, and Mexico has been hit be two Category 5 hurricanes, including Patricia this past weekend. The drought might just be luck. And yet the hurricane drought, combined with the more than decade-long warming pause in satellite-measured temperature records, like the one maintained at the University of Alabama-Huntsville, should make us rethink global warming policy. The Clean Power Plan, for instance, will cost us hundreds of billions of dollars, and yield few benefits if warming is not as bad as climate models forecast. On the other hand, the U.S. will be hit by major hurricanes in the future regardless of whether the climate warms. Eliminating inefficient government policies will reduce the cost of hurricanes, and the damage avoided will escalate if global warming strengthens future hurricanes. Daniel Sutter is the Charles G. Koch Professor of Economics with the Manuel H. Johnson Center for Political Economy at Troy University and host of Econversations on TrojanVision.
