Presidential Primary Brief: 266 days until Election Day
14 days until AL Presidential Primary 266 days until Election Day Convention Dates: Republican July 18-21, 2016, Democratic July 25-28, 2016 Weekly Headlines: Bernie Sanders defeats Hillary Clinton in NH primary Carly Fiorina suspends her presidential bid Chris Christie suspends campaign Press Clips: Michael Bloomberg confirms interest in a 2016 Presidential campaign (US News 2/9/16) As voters head to the polls for the New Hampshire primary today, there’s another twist in the presidential campaign: Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has confirmed for the first time that he is considering a White House run as an independent. “I’m listening to what candidates are saying and what the primary voters appear to be doing,” Bloomberg told the Financial Times. He added: “I find the level of discourse and discussion distressingly banal and an outrage and an insult to the voters.” He said the public deserves “a lot better” and noted that he is “looking at all the options.” Bloomberg, a billionaire who owns a media empire named after him, said he would need to start placing his name on state ballots by early March in order to have a serious chance to win. But victory would be very difficult. Only Gilmore left out of CBS’ Republican debate on Saturday (Politico 2/12/16) Six Republican candidates for president will take the debate stage on Saturday night, leaving only former Gov. Jim Gilmore frozen out of CBS’ prime-time event. Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Ben Carson and John Kasich all made the cut, according to CBS’ criteria. It will be one of the smallest showdowns for the Republicans thus far this cycle, which at one point saw 11 people crowded on stage. To qualify for the debate, candidates had to either place in the top five of the New Hampshire primary, place in the top three of the Iowa caucuses, or place among the top five candidates in averages of national and South Carolina polls. New Hampshire runner-up John Kasich is the anti-Donald Trump (US News 2/10/16) Who can stop Trump? As expected, Donald Trump cruised to a crushing victory in New Hampshire on Tuesday night. (Who would have believed last June when Trump entered the race that we’d be yawning at his winning New Hampshire?) Trump blew away his competitors, securing well above 30 percent of the vote – more than double that of the first runner-up. And that’s where the real story of New Hampshire lies: Ohio Gov. John Kasich came from the bottom of the pack to secure a second-place finish. Will he be the savior to deliver us from Trump? Carson: I reassess the future of my campaign every day (Politico 2/12/16) Ben Carson is constantly reassessing his campaign. “I reassess the future of the campaign every day, so of course I will continue to do that,” Carson said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” after he was asked what would happen if he didn’t do well in South Carolina. But Carson, who is currently in fifth place in the state, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average, has faith that South Carolina will change his luck. “I think South Carolina is gonna be the turning point,” the retired neurosurgeon said. He added that South Carolina is the type of place he loves to go to. Polls give Donald Trump huge advantage going into South Carolina (AOL News 2/12/16) Coming off of his first political win in New Hampshire, Donald Trump now has his sights set on South Carolina, and a new national poll shows he may be gaining even more momentum across the country. According to a poll from Morning Consult, he has more than double the support of any rival among self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Trump holds a commanding 44 percent lead with this key voting bloc. His closest rival, Ted Cruz, only comes in with 17 percent of support. Cruz, Glenn Beck rip Trump on abortion, gay marriage (Politico 2/11/16) Ted Cruz and Glenn Beck unleashed a barrage of criticisms of Donald Trump on religion and social issues here, angling for support from voters in one of the most conservative parts of the state. At the massive Morningstar Fellowship Church, Cruz laced into Trump as weak on abortion, gay marriage and gun rights while Beck suggested Trump has never cracked open a Bible. “Too many people right now are looking at a guy like Donald Trump and believing that that man has ever opened a Bible. That’s the biggest crock of bullcrap I’ve ever heard. We all know it,” Beck said. Millennials paving the way: 2016 Presidential election (Huffington Post 2/12/16) How can it be a surprise that Millennials are excited about Senator Bernie Sanders? The Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary were clear signs that Millennials could carry the 2016 presidential election. And the proof is in the numbers; over 80 percent of Democratic participants under the age of 30 voted for Senator Sanders according to a recent CNN poll. Obama reportedly received only 57 percent in 2008. So why are so many Millennials “feeling the Bern?” As GOP nomination fight gets more feisty, so does Marco Rubio (ABC News 2/12/16) Following a disappointing fifth place finish in New Hampshire, Marco Rubio is going on the offensive. Hoping for a better performance in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, Rubio has spent the last few days repeatedly blasting Donald Trump, Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz at various campaign stops in the Palmetto State. “Donald Trump has zero foreign policy experience,” Rubio said in Okatie, South Carolina. “Negotiating a hotel deal in another country is not foreign policy experience.” He also slammed Trump for recently using a vulgar word to refer to Cruz. Meet the super-rich driving the 2016 election (USA Today 2/8/16) Nearly half the money pouring into all federal super PACs came from just 107 people or groups that each gave $1 million or more to influence the outcome of this year’s presidential and congressional races, a USA TODAY analysis of new campaign finance reports shows.
Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore ends White House bid
Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore says he is dropping out of the race for the White House. The Republican says in a statement he plans to support his party’s nominee and will continue to speak out about what he called the dangers of electing Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders, the two candidates for the Democratic nomination. Gilmore announced his candidacy in July, saying his record as a national security expert and a fiscal conservative would set him apart in a crowded Republican field. But his campaign failed to win any support, and Gilmore qualified for only two so-called undercard debates. The former Army intelligence officer briefly ran for the GOP presidential nomination in 2007 and lost a U.S. Senate bid in 2008 to another former Virginia governor, Mark Warner. Republished with permission of the Associated Press. Thanks to the fans who tracked this campaign. We will be active and work to elect a Republican. For Immediate Release: … Posted by Jim Gilmore on Friday, February 12, 2016
Jim Gilmore blasts “fascist talk” on immigration among Republicans
How little respect has Jim Gilmore received in his quixotic bid for the presidency this year? Well, when your poll numbers are considered to be so paltry that you’re not even invited to the early non-prime time GOP presidential debates, that’s a pretty good sign about what the party (and cable news executives) thinks of you. But the former Virginia Governor and RNC Chair is indefatigable, and there he was on Saturday at shortly before noon addressing hundreds of Florida Republicans at the Sunshine Summit at the Rosen Shingle Creek hotel in Orlando. In the wake of the Paris terrorist attacks, Gilmore shifted the majority of his 20-minute speech to how he dealt with terrorism as Governor of Virginia in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. But his most interesting remarks were when he said that the Republican party was making a mistake with their harsh rhetoric regarding immigration during the current campaign. “We as a Republican Party seem to be on the attack against the Latino community, and of Latinos who live among us,” he said, preceding that remark by saying he wasn’t sure the audience would welcome them. “We seem to be expressing attacks on the Constitution, when we threaten to take away birthright citizenship from people in this country.” Gilmore said he didn’t think much of Donald Trump‘s call this week for a “deportation force’ to drag millions of undocumented immigrants out of the U.S. “To rip up our society at the very time that we need unity in the face of these challenges. I want you to know, this is fascist talk. It is unworthy of the great Republican Party of the United States. It may be acceptable to some people, but it is not acceptable to me.” There was some scattered applause, but not much. Later on in a Q&A with reporters, Gilmore said that though it may be “fashionable” to speak so disparagingly about Latinos in the GOP circa 2015, but he won’t do it. “I reject it. I think it’s bad for the party. I think it’s unacceptable for the Republican Party, and frankly, it’s bad public policy for the United States,” he said, adding that he does believe that the U.S. needs to bulk up on border security and does not believe in granting a pathway to citizenship for those who broke the law in crossing the Southern border. He questioned whether a deportation force could even be assembled in a constitutional fashion now. “Load people up on buses and trains and send them someplace, ripping families apart? That is awful policy, and a terrible message for us to be sending.” Gilmore added that the tough rhetoric employed by Trump, Ted Cruz and others is going to be a problem for the GOP in states like Florida, California, Texas and other states with large Latino populations. “The Republican Party is going to have a real challenge being elected to the presidency in 2016 if we kept sending this message and nobody stands up and contradicts it.” Gilmore may be struggling in the polls, but his stance echoes Jeb Bush and John Kasich in looking more toward a general election strategy in discussing immigration — but doesn’t appear to be what GOP primary voters — including in Florida — really want to hear now.
Paris attacks cast a dark cloud over Florida GOP’s Sunshine Summit
The hundreds of activist Republicans attending the Florida GOP’s Sunshine Summit are waking up to a different world than the one they went to sleep in last night. A series of attacks targeting young concertgoers, soccer fans and Parisians enjoying a Friday night out at popular nightspots killed at least 120 people in the deadliest violence to strike France since World War II. The assailants’ weapons were those of war: automatic rifles and suicide belts of explosives. The killing was indiscriminate, spread across a swath of the city, in at least six different sites. An ordinary Friday night in Paris transformed into a bloodbath. The word Parisians used over and over as they tried to make sense of the horror was “carnage.” At the packed Bataclan concert hall in eastern Paris, the attackers opened fire on a crowd waiting to hear American rock band Eagles of Death Metal perform. One witness told France Info radio he heard them yell “Allahu akbar” — God is great in Arabic — as they started their killing spree and took hostages. The city’s police chief, Michel Cadot, said the assailants also wore explosive belts, which they detonated. About a mile from there, attackers sprayed gunfire at the Belle Equipe bar, busy as ever on a Friday night with patrons unwinding from their week. One witness, also speaking to French radio, said the dead and wounded dropped “like flies” and that “there was blood everywhere. You feel very alone in moments like that.” By now, participants of the Sunshine Summit have learned the news, checked in on social media. They’ve seen images like the one accompanying this post. Friday, the Republicans in Orlando were there to hear from Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush and Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. Saturday, it’s very likely they will hear declarations of war. The Paris attacks took place during the heart of the first day of the Sunshine Summit. The on-message candidates probably did not know enough to comment on them as they spoke to the crowd. However, as news of the attacks spread, the presidential and U.S. Senate aspirants began to condemn the terrorist’s actions. Ben Carson was the first. Carson said currently there’s no leadership in America to give our allies confidence we’d follow through with a military response – suggesting Obama isn’t up to the task. You can probably expect more comments like Carson’s at the second day of the Sunshine Summit. Comedian John Morgan is scheduled to speak to the Summit at 10 a.m. I wonder if his appearance is still appropriate? U.S. Rep Ron DeSantis is slated to speak Saturday morning. He has an opportunity in his speech to demonstrate what kind of statesman he is in the face of the attacks. Presidential candidates Rick Santorum, Jim Gilmore, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, and John Kasich all will address the Summit scheduled Saturday. Count on Santorum and Jindal to let slip the dogs of war. What will be interesting to hear is what Paul, Christie, and Kasich have to say. Will Paul stick to his isolationism at a moment when our oldest ally needs us? Can Christie or Kasich use the Summit’s platform to show what kind of commander-in-chief they would be during a crisis like this? Florida GOP Chairman Blaise Ingoglia certainly did not expect a world-changing event like the Paris attacks to occur during the two-day Summit he planned. But such an event has happened. And that means it’s not just the 1,000 Republican activists there who are listening to what the candidates say. The audience for the Sunshine Summit is now much larger. Material from The Associated Press was used in this post. Photo credit: Anne Sophie Chaisemartin via AP.
New PPP national survey has Donald Trump up by 10 points
Donald Trump may or may not have already peaked in the Republican presidential contest, but no other candidate gets close to him in yet another national poll of GOP candidates released on Tuesday. The Public Policy Polling survey has Trump up with 27 percent support. Ben Carson is in second place with 17 percent, and Marco Rubio is next with 13 percent. These are all numbers that were roughly the same as when PPP conducted their last survey back in early September. Rounding out the field in fourth place is Jeb Bush with 10 percent, Ted Cruz is at 7 percent, Carly Fiorina is at 6 percent, and Mike Huckabee and John Kasich are each at 4 percent round out the list of candidates with with decent levels of support. Chris Christie, Rand Paul, and Rick Santorum are all at 2 percent, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, and George Pataki each get 1 percent, and in last place with less than 1 percent is Jim Gilmore. PPP says that Rubio “is really the only candidate who can claim any sort of momentum.” They say that because he’s gone from 5th place at 7 percent to 3rd place at 13 percent over the last five weeks. And he has a 57/24 favorability rating that puts him only behind Ben Carson when it comes to the most broadly liked of the Republican hopefuls. No one other than Rubio has seen more than a 2 point gain since our last poll. Florina’s six percent showing is down two points from a month ago, indicating that her No one’s really lost much ground in the last month either. The biggest decline anyone has seen in their support is 2 points- Trump, Fiorina, and Kasich have all seen that minor dip in the last month. Fiorina being at 6% after registering at 8% on our national poll in late August does suggest that whatever benefit she received from her strong debate performance last month may have already receded. Bush’s 10 percent showing is actually slightly up from a month ago and puts him in the top four, but he’s becoming more and more unpopular with Republican voters overall. Just 34 percent have a favorable opinion of him to 49% with a negative one. His struggles continue to be fueled by strong distrust from voters who identify themselves as ‘very conservative’- his favorability with them is 26/56 and only 2 percent support him for the nomination. Most interestingly, Republican primary voters are more liberal than all of the candidates when it comes to gun control and the economy. Eight-two percent of primary voters support background checks on all gun purchases, to only 13 percent opposed. Supporters of all 15 GOP hopefuls are in support of expanded background checks, including 82/18 support for them from Bush voters. There’s also 54 percent support among GOP voters for increasing the minimum wage to at least $10 an hour. Only 26 percent support keeping it where it is right now and 18 percent support eliminating the federal minimum wage altogether.
GOP debate lineup: Trump and Bush in, Fiorina and Perry out
Ten candidates have made the cut for the first Republican presidential debate Thursday, with polling front-runner Donald Trump hoping for a civil evening but ready to pounce if attacked. The seven others lagging in the polls and relegated to an afternoon forum? Call them the not-ready-for-prime-time players, at least in the eyes of debate organizers. Sharing the Cleveland stage with the billionaire businessman will be former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Candidates with time to watch that debate are former tech executive Carly Fiorina, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, former New York Gov. George Pataki and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore. The largest field of contenders in modern memory challenged debate organizers. Fox News relied on an average of five national polls to decide the lineups for the prime-time debate and the forum four hours earlier. “We never ever envisioned we’d have 17 major candidates,” said Steve Duprey, New Hampshire’s representative to the Republican National Committee who helped craft the debate plan. “There’s no perfect solution.” Republican officials were particularly concerned about Fiorina’s status, hoping she would help balance Democratic front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton‘s push to rally women. Trump’s recent surge in the polls, a surprise to many Republican officials, damaged Fiorina’s chances. Some Republicans fear that Trump’s rhetoric on immigration and other issues could hurt the party. “I probably am the target,” he said Wednesday on ABC’s “Good Morning America.” He said he did not want to attack any of his rivals and preferred to “just discuss the issues” in the course of a “very civil” debate. Still, he made clear that if attacked, he would have “to do something back.” Trump was far and away the front-runner in the five most recent national polls that determined the debate lineup. Several candidates were grouped together in the single digits, most separated by a number smaller than the margin of error. For example, in a Monmouth University survey released Monday, Kasich was the 10th candidate with the support of 3.2 percent of voters. But after taking the margin of error into account, Monmouth noted that Kasich’s support could be as low as 1.5 percent, while almost any of the candidates who polled lower could be that high or higher. Five more party-sanctioned debates are scheduled before primary voting begins in February. “This first debate is just one opportunity of many,” Amy Frederick, an aide to Fiorina, wrote supporters. “With many more debates to come, we fully expect that Carly will soon stand on the stage and show America what real leadership looks like.” Jindal spokeswoman Shannon Dirmann issued a challenge of sorts: “The governor will debate anyone anywhere at any time.” Candidates already began to turn their attention toward Trump. Asked about Trump while courting religious conservatives on Tuesday, Bush said the businessman’s rhetoric on immigrants is “wrong.” `’We have a different tone and a different view,” he said. “I respect the fact that he’s the front-runner for the Republican nomination,” Bush continued. “This is a serious thing. But I think to win and govern the right way – we have to unite rather than divide.” Republished with permission of The Associated Press.
Presidential primary brief: 484 days until Election Day
Welcome to the Monday presidential primary brief provided by Alabama Today. Every week you can find your latest headlines on the presidential primary races as we count down the days until Election Day. 230 days until AL Presidential Primary 484 days until Election Day Convention Dates: Republican July 18-21 2016, Democratic July 25-28 2016 Weekly Headlines: Scott Walker announces campaign blitz after 2016 announcement Republican Jim Gilmore to enter 2016 race for president Biden campaign team taking shape Press Clips: Global warming will play major role in 2016 presidential election (The Patriot News 7/12/15) Pope Francis in mid-June issued an encyclical calling for the world to combat global warming. It was developed with advice from the best scientists in the world, including world-‐famous British physicist/cosmologist Stephen Hawking. The Dalai Lama has endorsed the message. This will force a titanic, worldwide discussion on the issue — partly a scientific debate, partly a food fight from deniers, skeptics and people who honestly feel we have better things to spend our money on. Only one poll number right now tells us anything meaningful about the 2016 election (Washington Post 7/10/15) Although the 2016 election is nearly 500 days away, the nation — or at least the nation’s political junkies — remain hungry for news about the presidential campaign. But what news is there? Polls. So far — in 2015 alone! — no fewer than 57 polls have asked voters to choose between hypothetical nominees Republican Jeb Bush and Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton. So it’s useful to be mindful that “trial heat” polls conducted now have zero ability to predict the winner of an election that’s 16 months away. Polls don’t even tell us much about primaries and caucuses that are six months away. Upcoming polls to lock in GOP debate Field (Politico 7/7/15) John Kasich may be the last Republican to enter the presidential fray, but his timing could be the best: Exactly two weeks after the splash of his planned announcement on July 21, Fox News Channel will average together the latest polls of the Republican Field and determine which 10 of the 16 announced candidates will participate in the First debate in Cleveland. Making the cut gives a candidate the platform to stand out in a crowded Field; not making the cut leaves him or her knocking on the door. Immigration reform key issue in 2016 election (USA Today 7/6/15) At her job at an investment management firm in small-‐town Nebraska, Analy Gonzalez is “constantly reminded” of the economic strain immigrant workers face. Gonzalez, who often works with migrant workers, says she sees firsthand the need for immigration reform, particularly for young immigrants. “Speaking about immigration reform is something that you grow up with having an immigrant family,” the 25-‐year-old says. “A lot of the people that I help are immigrants working really difficult jobs with no education, just trying to get by.” Jim Webb clarifies position on the Confederate flag (CBS News 7/9/15) Democratic presidential candidate and former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb said Thursday that the Confederate Flag at the South Carolina Capitol has “long been due to come down,” but he also called for some historical perspective on the issue, suggesting people should not use the debate over the flag to demonize the South. “The Confederate battle flag was a battle flag. It assumed a lot of unfortunate racist and divisionist overtones during the civil rights era,” Webb said in an interview on CBS This Morning, his first with a national broadcast outlet since announcing his candidacy earlier this month. The demographics of 2016 look brutal for Republicans (Washington Post 7/10/15) If you want to understand why the debates over the Confederate flag and Donald Trump’s immigration outbursts have so many senior Republicans reaching for their acid reflux pills, take a look at this bracing new demographic analysis from Charlie Cook and David Wasserman. Cook and Wasserman note that historical patterns should favor the GOP in the 2016 presidential election, because the same party rarely keeps the White House after previously holding it for two terms. But that advantage will be swimming upstream against these demographics. How Bernie Sanders plans to win and change Washington (CBS News 7/12/15) Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, says he’ll be able to build a giant grassroots movement of support to win the Democratic nomination and the 2016 election, but that he’ll also go one step further than President Obama did successfully harness his grassroots support to change Washington. In an interview on CBS’ Face the Nation Sunday, Sanders said that the president ran “one of the great campaigns in the history of the United States of America” in 2008, but he also made a mistake by trying to negotiate fair compromises with Republicans and their leadership in Congress.
