Steve Flowers: 2020 races around the corner
Folks, don’t look now, but the 2020 Presidential Election is upon us. Indeed, as many as 21 Democratic aspirants are already announced and campaigning. They are quite a liberal group as you might expect. Leading the pack of Democrats trying to take Donald Trump out of the White House is an avowed, true socialist, Bernie Sanders. Behind ole Bernie are a host of ultra-liberal U.S. Senators who are socialists wannabes. They hail from either the left coasts of California or New England. Included in the pack of CNN/MSNBC/Stephen Colbert watchers are Elizabeth “Pocahontas” Warren of Massachusetts. She makes Teddy Kennedy look like a conservative. You also have Kamala Harris of California, Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey and losing Texas Senate candidate, Beto O’Rourke, in the race. Our own anomaly Democratic Senator Doug Jones really should run for president next year. He would have a much better chance of winning the Democratic nomination for President than winning a seat in the U.S. Senate from the Heart of Dixie. He has been a liberal Democrat in Alabama his entire adult political life. He has been the soul of the liberal Alabama Democratic Party for decades. He has campaigned and voted for George McGovern, Walter Mondale, Teddy Kennedy, Jesse Jackson, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton. Since he has been in Washington for the past year, he has organized with and voted with Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi. Therefore, he is just as liberal with a much lengthier liberal pedigree than all of the aforementioned liberal Democratic Senators in the race; plus he has a proven Civil Rights record. The scenario that occurred in last year’s special election to fill Jeff Sessions’s seat was a perfect storm that will never occur again. First of all, it was the only show in the country and the first opportunity for liberals all over the country to show their distaste for Donald Trump and the Republican Party. Having Judge Roy Moore as an additional lightning rod just added fuel to the fire. It attracted over $20 million of liberal, left-wing money to Doug Jones. He was able to out spend Moore 21 to 3. That is almost impossible to overcome, plus, with it being a Special Election it became a referendum on Doug Jones versus Roy Moore and the Republican vs Democratic delineation became obscured. During this race, Doug Jones built a national liberal fund-raising base from left-wing America, much like Beto O’Rourke did in Texas. They both have become national stars as Democrats in Red States. Although O’Rourke probably has an edge on Jones in looks and youth. However, recently, Jones appeared on the left leaning Democratic Stephen Colbert Show. Jones may very well be eyeing national politics. Doug Jones, as a lifelong stalwart Democrat, has worked diligently for the State and National Democratic party for most of his adult life. In recent months, he has tried to wrestle some control away from longtime Democratic dictator Joe Reed. It is practically impossible to understand what is going on in the State Democratic Party. Eventually, there may be a new vote on the party chairmanship. The National Democratic Party has mandated a new election due to the clandestine way that Nancy Worley was elected. The state hierarchy has ignored the National Party. There is no doubt that Joe Reed is still in control of the Alabama Democratic Party. You can bet your bottom dollar that he calls all the shots. My guess is that he has his horse picked out of the 21 Democratic presidential candidates. He asked California Senator, Kamala Harris, to be the keynote speaker at his Alabama Democratic Conference June annual event. Therefore, Senator Harris might be a good horse to bet on to win next year’s March third Alabama Democratic Presidential Primary. The Democratic Party in Alabama continues to be a big mess. The bottom line is that on the state level the Party is essentially irrelevant. The odds of a Democratic candidate for President carrying Alabama or a Democratic nominee winning any statewide race in the Heart of Dixie is slim to none. See you next week. Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
Party insiders give Hillary Clinton early, commanding delegate edge
Hillary Rodham Clinton has locked up public support from half of the Democratic insiders who cast ballots at the party’s national convention, giving her a commanding advantage over her rivals for the party’s presidential nomination. Clinton’s margin over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley is striking. Not only is it big, but it comes more than two months before primary voters head to the polls — an early point in the race for so many of the people known as superdelegates to publicly back a candidate. “She has the experience necessary not only to lead this country, she has experience politically that I think will help her through a tough campaign,” said Unzell Kelley, a county commissioner from Alabama. “I think she’s learned from her previous campaign,” he said. “She’s learned what to do, what to say, what not to say — which just adds to her electability.” The Associated Press contacted all 712 superdelegates in the past two weeks, and heard back from more than 80 percent. They were asked which candidate they plan to support at the convention next summer. The results: Clinton: 359. Sanders: 8. O’Malley: 2. Uncommitted: 210. The 712 superdelegates make up about 30 percent of the 2,382 delegates needed to clinch the Democratic nomination. That means that more than two months before voting starts, Clinton already has 15 percent of the delegates she needs. That sizable lead reflects Clinton’s advantage among the Democratic Party establishment, an edge that has helped the 2016 front-runner build a massive campaign organization, hire top staff and win coveted local endorsements. Superdelegates are convention delegates who can support the candidate of their choice, regardless of who voters choose in the primaries and caucuses. They are members of Congress and other elected officials, party leaders and members of the Democratic National Committee. Clinton is leading most preference polls in the race for the Democratic nomination, most by a wide margin. Sanders has made some inroads in New Hampshire, which holds the first presidential primary, and continues to attract huge crowds with his populist message about income inequality. But Sanders has only recently started saying he’s a Democrat after a decades-long career in politics as an independent. While he’s met with and usually voted with Democrats in the Senate, he calls himself a democratic socialist. “We recognize Secretary Clinton has enormous support based on many years working with and on behalf of many party leaders in the Democratic Party,” said Tad Devine, a senior adviser to the Sanders campaign. “But Sen. Sanders will prove to be the strongest candidate, with his ability to coalesce and bring young people to the polls the way that Barack Obama did.” “The best way to win support from superdelegates is to win support from voters,” added Devine, a longtime expert on the Democrats’ nominating process. The Clinton campaign has been working for months to secure endorsements from superdelegates, part of a strategy to avoid repeating the mistakes that cost her the Democratic nomination eight years ago. In 2008, Clinton hinged her campaign on an early knockout blow on Super Tuesday, while Obama’s staff had devised a strategy to accumulate delegates well into the spring. This time around, Clinton has hired Obama’s top delegate strategist from 2008, a lawyer named Jeff Berman, an expert on the party’s arcane rules for nominating a candidate for president. Clinton’s increased focus on winning delegates has paid off, putting her way ahead of where she was at this time eight years ago. In December 2007, Clinton had public endorsements from 169 superdelegates, according to an AP survey. At the time, Obama had 63 and a handful of other candidates had commitments as well from the smaller fraction of superdelegates willing to commit to a candidate. “Our campaign is working hard to earn the support of every caucus goer, primary voter and grass roots and grasstop leaders,” said Clinton campaign spokesman Jesse Ferguson. “Since day one we have not taken this nomination for granted and that will not change.” Some superdelegates supporting Clinton said they don’t think Sanders is electable, especially because of his embrace of socialism. But few openly criticized Sanders and a handful endorsed him. “I’ve heard him talk about many subjects and I can’t say there is anything I disagree with,” said Chad Nodland, a DNC member from North Dakota who is backing Sanders. However, Nodland added, if Clinton is the party’s nominee, “I will knock on doors for her. There are just more issues I agree with Bernie.” Some superdelegates said they were unwilling to publicly commit to candidates before voters have a say, out of concern that they will be seen as undemocratic. A few said they have concerns about Clinton, who has been dogged about her use of a private email account and server while serving as secretary of state. “If it boils down to anything I’m not sure about the trust factor,” said Danica Oparnica, a DNC member from Arizona. “She has been known to tell some outright lies and I can’t tolerate that.” Still others said they were won over by Clinton’s 11 hours of testimony before a GOP-led committee investigating the attack on a U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya. Clinton’s testimony won widespread praise as House Republicans struggled to trip her up. “I don’t think that there’s any candidate right now, Democrat or Republican, that could actually face up to that and come out with people shaking their heads and saying, ‘That is one bright, intelligent person,’” said California Democratic Rep. Tony Cardenas. Republished with permission of The Associated Press.
Jeb Bush, Hillary Clinton take different tracks on potential matchup
To judge them solely by their travels during the past month, you might think Jeb Bush has already plunged into the general election and Hillary Rodham Clinton has a serious fight on her hands for the Democratic nomination. The conventional thinking, though, is quite the opposite: He’s got a real primary race to settle first and she doesn’t. Bush, who has yet to declare his candidacy for the Republican nomination, has been stopping in states far from the early testing grounds of Iowa and New Hampshire. In the past month, he’s made appearances in Ohio, North Carolina and Colorado, all crucial general election states. On Saturday, he’ll be in Virginia, which will also be hotly contested in November 2016, even as most of his Republican nomination rivals are appearing in South Carolina: an important state in the primary race. “It’s a conscious effort, as he goes through the consideration process, to talk to and hear from people across the board,” Bush spokesman Tim Miller said. “That means in the early primary states and other states that would play a role in the process.” Bush’s strategy carries potential risks. Voters in early primary and caucus states are used to personal attention from candidates and could see Bush’s apparent flirtation with the general election as premature. Clinton, in contrast, is narrowly focusing her travel schedule on the first four states in the primaries, suggesting she wants voters to know she’s taking nothing for granted despite her dominant position in the party. To be sure, Bush isn’t avoiding the early states. He’s made visits to Iowa and New Hampshire, as well as South Carolina and Nevada, which round out the first four primary contests, and is headed back to Nevada and Iowa next week. Also, he does not have paid staff on the ground in the battleground states. But a candidate’s time remains one of any campaign’s most valuable assets and how and where the candidate spends it provides the clearest glimpse into their strategy. Bush’s relentless travel schedule has been largely driven by his aggressive fundraising campaign. But he took time out in Ohio last month to speak to the influential Ohio Chamber of Commerce conference, a coveted speaking engagement in a perennial swing state. This weekend, Bush will give the commencement address at Liberty University in Virginia, a state that Democrat Barack Obama carried twice. In just the past month, Bush has also spoken in Colorado and North Carolina. Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and North Carolina were each decided by less than five percentage points in the 2012 election, and are expected to be pivotal in 2016. Since announcing her campaign in early April, Clinton has limited her campaign appearances to Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. She also plans to travel to South Carolina in the coming weeks. It’s not a liability for Bush to dip a toe into a key fall election state, because such travel is still a priority, said veteran GOP presidential adviser Charlie Black. “Your first driving force is fundraising,” he said, referring to travel plans. “Second is early-primary states and third is swing states. Sometimes it’s a major speech, or a national speech that’s driving them.” Black presumed that Clinton would alter her schedule under the right conditions. “If there were a NARAL conference in St. Louis, you can bet she’d be there,” he said, referring to the pro-abortion-rights group. Clinton’s campaign is initially raising money for the primaries, not the general election. But it’s clear she is keeping an eye on Bush, who is viewed by many of her advisers as the toughest potential GOP candidate in a general election. For example, Clinton had planned to wait until May to start headlining fundraising events. However, she told aides that because Bush was raising money at such an aggressive pace, she needed to pick up her pace on that front. Fundraisers were added to her April schedule in New York and Washington. Campaign officials said Clinton’s travel plans haven’t been swayed by Bush’s flirtation with general election states. They don’t expect her to appear in states such as Ohio until late summer at the earliest. But her team is looking for other ways to engage the general election states. Campaign chairman John Podesta met donors in Colorado on Monday and is expected to make similar stops in states that will be crucial on Election Day. The campaign has also pledged to have employees in all the states, working with volunteers and organizing efforts to get out the vote. While campaign officials said those efforts are currently focused on the primaries, they are also a way to start building a foundation for the general election. Republished with permission of The Associated Press.
