Paul DeMarco: Low Voter Turnout for Alabama 2022 Party Primary Elections
So the 2022 Alabama Party Primaries are behind us, and we can now look back on what happened. We have our party nominees and a number of run-offs that will be decided on June 21st. One of the underlying stories from that day was voter turnout. There were predictions by the Alabama Secretary of State’s office that there could be between 28 to 32 percent of the state’s voters out on election day. Instead, the voter participation was 23.4 percent, which was 850,463 ballots cast, less than a quarter of those registered to vote in Alabama. Turnout for elections is at its highest in Alabama during presidential contests, which has had between 60 to 72 percent of voters for elections in the past twenty years. You would have thought with high-profile races for the Alabama Governor’s office and the United States Senate, there would have been a lot more voters who would have shown up, but they did not. There could be a number of reasons why folks did not show up to vote. Some pundits believe the avalanche of negative advertisements depressed the vote, while others blamed simple apathy about the candidates, which caused others to sit the election out altogether. Whatever the reason, with the upcoming run-off, there could be even lower numbers of those showing up at the polls. Thus, campaigns are gearing back up to figure out what they need to do to get their voters back out once again. We will see in three weeks if the candidates are indeed successful in those efforts. Paul DeMarco is a former member of the Alabama House of Representatives. He can be followed on Twitter at @Paul_DeMarco, and his weekly radio programs can be heard on stations across the state.
Things to Know: 8 states cast midterm primary votes Tuesday
Eight states are casting midterm primary ballots Tuesday, with implications for control of the House and Senate and for several governor’s races. Primaries are being held in Alabama, California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota. Some of the highlights: CALIFORNIA JUNGLE There are no party primaries in California, with voters instead choosing among all candidates on one ballot, with the top two vote-getters advancing to November regardless of party. That has repercussions for both major parties, but Democrats in particular have concerns that they could get shut out of a handful of Southern California races, costing them prime pickup opportunities to retake the House majority this fall. The national party has spent millions of dollars trying to avoid that fate in seats opened by Republican Ed Royce and Darrell Issa‘s retirements and in the district where Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher is facing challenges from the left and the right. Those three seats are among seven California House districts where President Donald Trump trailed Hillary Clinton in 2016. There are 25 such districts nationwide. Democrats must win at least 23 new seats to reclaim a majority. For the GOP, the shutout is most likely in the governor’s race. Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa are considered the top Democratic hopefuls. Republicans view business executive John Cox as their best shot to make November a traditional two-party matchup. ___ BE PATIENT For all the focus on various California scenarios, it’s almost certain that the results won’t be settled Tuesday night. That’s because the state allows absentee ballots to be mailed through the primary election day. It could be days before all those are counted — with runoff spots hanging in the balance. ___ SENATORS IN THE SHADOWS Senate contests are mostly getting overlooked Tuesday, but vulnerable Democratic incumbent Jon Tester of Montana will learn who he’ll have to contend with this fall. The most likely nominees are State Auditor Matt Rosendale and retired judge Russ Fagg, both with long records in public posts. Rosendale has GOP establishment support. Either promises to take aim at Tester as a foe to Trump. Tester is one of 10 Democratic senators running for re-election this year in states Trump won. In New Jersey, Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez appears a shoo-in to become his party’s nominee, but he must fend off a primary challenger to make it official. This comes months after federal criminal corruption charges against him were dropped and he was rebuked by the Senate ethics panel. Republicans hope to use the fallout to tar other Democrats in the state, including several trying to flip GOP House seats. Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California isn’t believed to be threatened for re-election, but the 84-year-old is being tested from the left by state Senate leader Kevin de Leon. It will be worth watching what her final totals are coming out of the primary and heading into a potential two-Democrat match in November. ___ ANOTHER TRUMP TEST Republican Rep. Martha Roby of Alabama was the first federal elected official to rescind her endorsement of Donald Trump after disclosure of a 2005 “Access Hollywood” tape of him bragging about grabbing women’s genitals without permission. Roby declared that she’d vote for someone else — and the Trump loyalists in her district haven’t forgotten, putting her at risk of a runoff. Her top challenger is the man she beat to win the seat in 2010. Former Democratic Rep. Bobby Bright switched parties to try to even the score. ___ SOUTH DAKOTA FIREWORKS Politics in the Dakotas doesn’t always make national headlines, but there are plenty of fireworks in South Dakota. Attorney General Marty Jackley and U.S. Rep Kristi Noem are in a fierce battle for the GOP gubernatorial nomination. Noem would be the state GOP’s first female nominee for governor. Noem’s bid for the statehouse corner office has opened South Dakota’s at-large House seat, with a three-way race that’s drawn considerable out-of-state spending. Dusty Johnson, a former Public Utilities commissioner, is considered the favorite. But Secretary of State Shantel Krebs is pushing from the right, having campaigned recently with firebrand Rep. Steve King of Iowa. A third candidate, state Sen. Neal Tapio, has called for an end to the Native American reservation system in the United States. ___ OTHER GOVERNOR’S RACES TAKE SHAPE Alabama has a rare primary experience: competitive gubernatorial primaries on both sides of the aisle. Republican Gov. Kay Ivey is aiming for her first outright term, having assumed the office when Robert Bentley resigned amid a sex scandal involving an aide. But she’ll have to dispatch several GOP challengers first. Democrats will choose between Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox and former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb. Either would be a big underdog in November. Iowa Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds also is seeking her first full term after succeeding Republican Terry Branstad, now the U.S. ambassador to China. Democrats will be choosing between businessman Fred Hubbell and labor leader Cathy Glasson, with polls suggesting Hubbell is the favorite. In New Mexico, both parties are picking would-be successors to outgoing Gov. Susana Martinez, the nation’s first Latina governor. Among the top Democrats is Michelle Lujan Grisham, a congresswoman who’d be the second Latina state chief executive. Republished with permission from the Associated Press.
Here’s a look at all of the major endorsements in statewide races
Here’s an overview of each the major statewide races by party, then candidate (in alphabetical order). Below we highlight all of candidate’s major endorsements from top well-known groups across Alabama/the country. Names in red link to our “Get to Know” candidate survey, which we believe offers an interesting, albeit, thumbnail sketch of who the candidate is and why they are running. Governor’s race REPUBLICANS Tommy Battle Scott Dawson Endorsed by: Alabama Republican Assembly; BamaCarry Bill Hightower Endorsed by: Alabama Citizens for Life Kay Ivey Endorsed by: Alabama Farmer’s Federation; Alabama Forestry Association; Alabama Citizens for Life; Alabama Grocer’s Association; Alabama Retail PAC; Alabama Trucking Association; Manufacture Alabama; Business Council of Alabama; NRA DEMOCRATS Sue Bell Cobb Christopher Countryman James Fields Walt Maddox Endorsed by: Alabama Democratic Conference; Alabama New South Alliance; Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen; Central Alabama Labor Council; International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers; Professional Firefighters of Alabama; United Mine Workers of America; West Alabama Labor Council; more. Doug Smith Anthony White Lt. Governor’s race REPUBLICANS Will Ainsworth Endorsed by: Alabama Farmer’s Federation; Alabama Forestry Association; BamaCarry Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh Endorsed by: Alabama Associated General Contractors; Alabama Grocer’s Association; Alabama Associated General ContractorsAlabama Retail PAC; Manufacture Alabama; Alabama Veterinary Medical Association; Business Council of Alabama; Susan B. Anthony List Rusty Glover Endorsed by: Alabama Citizens for Life; Conservative Christians of Alabama; Alabama Republican Assembly DEMOCRATS Will Boyd Secretary of State REPUBLICANS Michael Johnson John Merrill Endorsed by: Alabama Farmer’s Federation; Alabama Forestry Association; Alabama Citizens for Life; Alabama Grocer’s Association; Alabama Republican Assembly; Alabama Retail PAC; Alabama Trucking Association; Business Council of Alabama; Conservative Christians of Alabama DEMOCRATS Lula Albert Heather Milam Endorsed by: Alabama Democratic Conference Treasurer REPUBLICANS David L. Black Stephen D Evans John McMillan Endorsed by: Alabama Farmer’s Federation; Alabama Forestry Association; Alabama Grocer’s Association; Alabama Retail PAC; Business Council of Alabama; Conservative Christians of Alabama; Alabama Trucking Association; DEMOCRATS N/A Attorney General REPUBLICANS Chess Bedsole Endorsed by: Conservative Christians of Alabama Troy King Steve Marshall Endorsed by: Alabama Citizens for Life; Alabama Grocer’s Association; Alabama Retail PAC; Alabama Trucking Association; Business Council of Alabama; Manufacture Alabama; NRA Alice Martin Endorsed by: Alabama Farmer’s Federation; Alabama Republican Assembly; BamaCarry DEMOCRATS Chris Christie Endorsed by: Alabama Democratic Conference Joseph Siegelman Endorsed by: Alabama New South Alliance Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries REPUBLICANS Tracy “T.O.” Crane Gerald Dial Endorsed by: Alabama Citizens for Life; Manufacture Alabama; NRA Cecil Murphy Rick Pate Endorsed by: Alabama Farmer’s Federation; Alabama Forestry Association; Alabama Grocer’s Association; Alabama Republican Assembly; Business Council of Alabama; Conservative Christians of Alabama DEMOCRATS N/A Alabama Supreme Court REPUBLICANS Chief Justice Tom Parker Endorsed by: Alabama Citizens for Life; Alabama Republican Assembly; Conservative Christians of Alabama Lyn Stuart Endorsed by: Alabama Farmer’s Federation; Alabama Forestry Association; Alabama Grocer’s Association; Alabama Retail PAC; Business Council of Alabama; Manufacture Alabama Associate Justice, Place 1 Debra Jones Endorsed by: Alabama Republican Assembly; Conservative Christians of Alabama Brad Mendheim Endorsed by: Alabama Farmer’s Federation; Alabama Forestry Association; Alabama Grocer’s Association; Alabama Retail PAC; Business Council of Alabama; Manufacture Alabama Sarah Hicks Stewart Endorsed by: Business Council of Alabama Associate Justice, Place 2 Tommy Bryan Endorsed by: Alabama Forestry Association; Business Council of Alabama Associate Justice, Place 3 Will Sellers Endorsed by: Alabama Forestry Association; Business Council of Alabama Associate Justice, Place 4 John Bahakel Endorsed by: Alabama Republican Assembly; Conservative Christians of Alabama Jay Mitchell Endorsed by: Alabama Farmer’s Federation; Alabama Forestry Association; Alabama Grocer’s Association; Alabama Retail PAC; Business Council of Alabama; Manufacture Alabama DEMOCRATS Chief Justice Bob Vance, Jr. Endorsed by: Alabama New South Alliance Associate Justice, Place 4 Donna Wesson Smalley Endorsed by: Alabama New South Alliance Court of Civil Appeals REPUBLICANS Place 1 Christy Olinger Edwards Endorsed by: Alabama Farmer’s Federation; Alabama Grocer’s Association; Alabama Retail PAC; Manufacture Alabama Pat Thetford Michelle Manley Thomason Endorsed by: Alabama Forestry Association; Alabama Republican Assembly; Conservative Christians of Alabama Place 2 Chad Hanson Terri Willingham Thomas Endorsed by: Alabama Farmer’s Federation; Alabama Forestry Association; Alabama Grocer’s Association; Alabama Republican Assembly; Alabama Retail PAC; Business Council of Alabama; Conservative Christians of Alabama; Manufacture Alabama Place 3 Terry A. Moore Endorsed by: Alabama Forestry Association; Alabama Grocer’s Association; Business Council of Alabama DEMOCRATS N/A Court of Criminal Appeals REPUBLICANS Place 1 Richard Minor Endorsed by: Alabama Farmer’s Federation; Alabama Forestry Association; Alabama Grocer’s Association; Alabama Republican Assembly; Alabama Retail PAC; Business Council of Alabama; Conservative Christians of Alabama; Manufacture Alabama Riggs Walker Place 2 Rich Anderson Chris McCool Endorsed by: Alabama Farmer’s Federation; Alabama Forestry Association; Alabama Grocer’s Association; Alabama Republican Assembly; BamaCarry; Alabama Retail PAC; Business Council of Alabama; Conservative Christians of Alabama; Manufacture Alabama Dennis O’Dell Place 3 Donna Beaulieu Bill Cole Endorsed by: Alabama Farmer’s Federation; Alabama Forestry Association; Alabama Grocer’s Association; Alabama Republican Assembly; Alabama Retail PAC; Business Council of Alabama; Conservative Christians of Alabama; Manufacture Alabama DEMOCRATS N/A Public Service Commission REPUBLICANS Place 1 Jim Bonner Jeremy H. Oden Endorsed by: Alabama Farmer’s Federation; Alabama Grocer’s Association; Manufacture Alabama Place 2 Chris “Chip” Beeker Jr. Endorsed by: Alabama Farmer’s Federation; Alabama Grocer’s Association; Manufacture Alabama Robin Litaker Endorsed by: Conservative Christians of Alabama DEMOCRATS Place 1 Cara Y. McClure Place 2 Kari Powell *If you are a candidate who wins the primary would like to complete the questionnaire, ahead of the November general election, email Elizabeth@ALToday.com.
Here’s how the candidates Alabama influencers supported fared in the primaries
Alabama’s political influencers have a lot of sway when it comes to affecting the decisions of those who follow them. Many influencers represent the voices of particular causes or sections of the population that wouldn’t otherwise be heard. Ahead of the June 5 primary elections, these influencers took time to research the candidates running and made it known to their audience who they were voting for. Here’s who the influencers supported in the June 5 primaries and how the candidates fared: John Rice Governor: Scott Dawson [LOST] Lt Governor: Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh [MOVED TO RUNOFF] Secretary of State: John Merrill [WON] Attorney General: Troy King [MOVED TO RUNOFF] State Treasurer: John McMillan [WON] State Auditor: Jim Zeigler [WON] Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries: Rick Pate [MOVED TO RUNOFF] Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice: Tom Parker [WON] Supreme Court Place 1: Debra Jones [WON] Supreme Court Place 4: John Bahakel [LOST] Court of Civil Appeals Place 1: Michelle Manley Thomason [MOVED TO RUNOFF] Court of Civil Appeals Place 2: Terry Willingham Thomas [LOST] Court of Criminal Appeals Place 1: Riggs Walker [LOST] Court of Criminal Appeals Place 2: Rich Anderson [MOVED TO RUNOFF] Court of Criminal Appeals Place 3: Bill Cole [WON] PSC Pl 1: Jeremy Oden [WON] PSC Pl 2 Robin Litaker [LOST] Baron Coleman U.S. Congress District 2: Bobby Bright [MOVED TO RUNOFF] Governor: Kay Ivey [WON] Lt. Governor: Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh [MOVED TO RUNOFF] Attorney General: Troy King [MOVED TO RUNOFF] Secretary of State: John Merrill [WON] Treasurer: John McMillan [WON] State Auditor: Stan Cooke [LOST] Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries: Rick Pate [MOVED TO RUNOFF] Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice: Tom Parker [WON] Supreme Court Place 1: Brad Mendheim [MOVED TO RUNOFF] Supreme Court Place 4: John Bahakel [LOST] Civil Appeals Place 1: Christy Olinger Edwards [MOVED TO RUNOFF] Criminal Appeals Place 2: Rich Anderson [MOVED TO RUNOFF] Rick and Bubba Governor: Scott Dawson [LOST] Common Sense Campaign (TEA Party) Governor: Scott Dawson or Bill Hightower [LOST] Lt. Governor: Rusty Glover [LOST] Attorney General: Alice Martin [LOST] Secretary of State: John Merrill [WON] State Treasurer: David Black State Auditor: Jim Zeigler [WON] Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries: Rick Pate [MOVED TO RUNOFF] Alabama Supreme Court, Chief Justice: Tom Parker [WON] Alabama Supreme Court, Associate Justice Place 1: Debra Jones [LOST] Alabama Supreme Court, Associate Justice Place 4: John Bahakel [LOST] Court of Civil Appeals, Place 1: Michelle Thomason [MOVED TO RUNOFF] Court of Civil Appeals, Place 2: Terri Willingham Thomas [LOST] Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 1: Richard Minor [WON] Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 2: Chris McCool [MOVED TO RUNOFF] Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 3: Bill Cole [WON] PSC, Place 1: Jim Bonner [LOST] PSC, Place 2: Robin Litaker [LOST]
Steve Flowers: Kay Ivey’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep
We are less than four weeks away from our June 5th primary. Those of us who follow Alabama politics have pointed to this year as being a very entertaining and interesting gubernatorial year. However, last year’s resignation by former Governor, Robert Bentley and the ascension of Kay Ivey from Lt. Governor to the Governor’s office has put a damper on the excitement we anticipated in the governor’s race. Kay took over the reins of state government and her appearance as a seasoned veteran of state politics seems to resonate with voters. Polling indicates that the governor’s race is hers to lose. Therefore, the less she does may be the best course. Her support is a mile wide and an inch deep. A slip and fall could derail her train. Her perch reminds me of a story surrounding the last truly colorful southern governor, Edwin Edwards of Louisiana. Ole Edwin had a wide lead like Kay’s in the polls a few weeks prior to his race for reelection as governor of the Pelican state. The press asked him about two weeks out about his significant lead in the polls. Edwin’s reply was, “Yeah, the only way that ole Edwin can lose this race is to get caught in bed with a dead woman or a live boy.” Tommy Battle, the popular Mayor of Huntsville is poised to make a formidable run at Kay in the closing weeks. He has some money in the bank and will come out of the vote rich Tennessee Valley with a good friends and neighbors vote. The Evangelical Roy Moore voters appear to be coalescing around Evangelist Scott Dawson. My guess is that Walt Maddox, the young 45-year old Mayor of Tuscaloosa is benefitting from a grass roots support among African American voters in the Democratic primary. If indeed this is the case, Maddox will be favored to capture the Democratic nomination. Will Barfoot has emerged as the frontrunner in the closely watched open Montgomery/River Region Republican seat. Incumbent State Senator Paul Bussman is in a close contest with Cullman City Council President Garlan Grudger. Polling indicates that this one may be too close to call. Bussman’s departure from the GOP Senate Caucus has given his constituents the perception that he may be rendered ineffective. This district is politically savvy. Veteran educator, Wayne Reynolds, may be poised to win the State Board of Education District 8 seat in the Huntsville-Tennessee Valley area being vacated by Mary Scott Hunter. Mary Scott and Sam Givhan are battling for an open state Senate seat in Huntsville. This race is one of the best Senate races in the state. Both Givhan and Hunter are heirs to great Alabama legacies. Givhan’s grandfather was legendary Black Belt State Senator Walter Givhan. Ms. Hunter’s daddy, Scott Hunter, is one of Bear Bryant’s famous quarterbacks. Speaking of legends, Alabama political icon, Milton McGregor, was laid to rest a few weeks ago. He would have been 79 today. Montgomery’s Frazer Memorial Methodist Church was overflowing. A good many of the state’s past and present political powers were there, including several past governors and a sitting U.S. Senator. One of the state’s most famous and personable preachers, John Ed Mathison, presented a masterful sermon. He is a great man. He and his wife were best friends with Milton and Pat. It was actually a joyous political homecoming event. As folks were visiting and reminiscing, one of Alabama’s most prominent pulmonary physicians, Dr. David Thrasher, who has been a doctor to many famous Alabamians and was one of Milton’s pallbearers was visiting with me and said, “Steve, I was at Governor Wallace’s funeral when Franklin Graham spoke and it doesn’t compare to this.” Then he quipped, “Steve, I got a call from Billy Graham. He said that he had met a nice guy at breakfast by the name of Milton McGregor. Milton said to tell John Ed to remind the people down here that if they did good and believed in Jesus that they could be a winner too and join him.” That’s what John Ed said. See you next week. ••• Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
