In Florida, Donald Trump faces a Hillary Clinton campaign behemoth
For Donald Trump, the fight for Florida begins and ends with mass appeal: signature rallies and direct social media contact with voters who believe he can “make America great again.” Add some 30 Florida Trump employees to about 80 Republican Party field workers deployed around the state, and that pretty much covers the GOP nominee’s conventional ground game operation in the largest battleground state. Then there’s Hillary Clinton: 51 offices, with more on the way, and 500 employees combing Florida, and an overall ground game that rivals that of the previous Democratic nominee, President Barack Obama. Trump loyalists say they have a deliberate strategy and far-reaching footprint to counter the Clinton behemoth, even if his apparatus doesn’t measure up in campaign offices, staff and paid advertising. But the organizational disparity leaves more than a few Republicans scratching their heads. All agree Trump has no path to the required 270 electoral votes without claiming Florida’s 29. “Everyone keeps saying you’re not doing this in a traditional way, why?” says Trump adviser Karen Giorno. “Well, we don’t have a traditional candidate.” She oversaw Trump’s Florida operation from the primary season until last week, when she moved to national duties. Giorno points to thousands of volunteers led by unpaid chairmen in each of Florida’s 67 counties. The Republican National Committee says it has 1,000 trained volunteers to go with its employees. Yet only after Labor Day did the Trump campaign open outposts other than the nominee’s state headquarters in Sarasota. Giorno’s replacement by Susie Wiles came just two months before Election Day. Giorno and Wiles say their candidate is in good shape. Either Trump or his running mate Mike Pence will be in the state at least weekly until the election, Giorno said. Between visits, she added, a volunteer network, led by people in each of Florida’s 67 counties, will use more conventional methods to build the Trump coalition. Wiles, in an interview on her first day as the new Florida boss, said judging the campaign by offices and staff “isn’t the right measure we should use,” because “you don’t meet voters sitting in an office.” Prior to her job change, Giorno described a two-track strategy she developed with Trump’s blessing. “Ten thousand people in an arena and thousands of people on social media are just as good as (Democrats) knocking on 10,000 doors — and we’re doing that, too,” Giorno said. “I don’t see how people say we have no ground game just because they don’t see something that operates just like they think it should.” Scott Arceneaux, senior strategist for Clinton’s Florida campaign, calls that “ridiculous spin” in a state where marginal shifts in a diverse electorate can tilt the statewide result. Obama won Florida by fewer than 3 percentage points in 2008 and less than a percentage point four years later, with turnout exceeding 8.3 million both times. Polls for months have suggested another tight race. Trump’s Orange County chairman, Randy Ross, said Arceneaux discounts people like him. Ross, whose territory includes Orlando, shepherds other volunteers who run phone banks and knock on doors using voter lists produced by the Republican National Committee’s data operation, expanded after Obama’s two victories. “We happen to be using things Republicans learned” from Obama, Ross added, “but we are really a movement, just like Mr. Trump calls it.” Brian Ballard, a Trump fundraiser and top lobbyist in the state capital of Tallahassee, said, “Counting campaign offices just doesn’t matter these days.” Florida is slightly less white than the national electorate, but still roughly a microcosm. If the electorate largely reflects 2012, Clinton would capitalize on her standing among African-Americans and Hispanics wary of Trump. Even among Cuban-Americans, a population that has historically leaned Republican, Trump appears to be underperforming — a circumstance that would pad Clinton’s advantage. Yet even if Clinton maintains her advantage among minorities, turnout could drop in places like Orlando and south Florida’s Broward County, yielding her fewer overall votes. That could give Trump an opening if he’s able to goose turnout among whites, particularly in Pensacola, Jacksonville and other GOP strongholds in north Florida. Even so, said Arceneaux, “This is a 1 percent state, so if we win by 2 percent, that’s a landslide.” Facing such a landscape, Giorno conceded Trump is late building his paid campaign infrastructure. But other Florida Republicans point to strong local parties that already were using the national party’s data and support, while running their own outreach programs. Michael Barnett, chairman of the Palm Beach County GOP, for example, says his party has for several years built relationships within the Haitian-American community. That pocket — numbering in the tens of thousands — shows up as black voters on paper, Barnett notes, “but doesn’t have the historical connection with the Democratic Party” that American-born blacks do. Arceneaux, the Clinton strategist, questions whether the overall Republican effort can identify and mobilize voters beyond those who identify themselves as eager supporters, given fewer employees and Trump’s late effort. He joked: “We like to say that Mr. Trump gives us many avenues to victory.” Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Donald Trump says he’s not flip-flopping on immigration
Republican Donald Trump insists that he’s not flip-flopping when it comes to his proposal to deport the estimated 11 million people living in the United States illegally – even though his new campaign manager now says his stance is “to be determined.” Trump said in an interview with Fox & Friends on Monday that he’s “not flip-flopping,” but wants to come up with “a really fair, but firm” solution. Trump had previously proposed using a “deportation force” to remove the 11 million people living in the United States illegally- a proposal that excited many of his core supporters, but alienated Hispanic voters who could be pivotal in key states. Republican leaders fear that Trump can’t win – and could drag down GOP congressional candidates – if he doesn’t increase his support beyond his white, male base. Trump met Saturday with Hispanic supporters, representatives of a community that has been wary of the billionaire businessman’s deportation proposals and his plans to build a giant wall on the U.S.-Mexico border. Questioned on whether Trump still intends to deploy the deportation force, campaign manager Kellyanne Conway said Sunday: “To be determined.” There have been previous signs that Trump might be moderating his stance on deportations. At last month’s GOP convention, the Republican National Committee‘s director of Hispanic communications, Helen Aguirre Ferre, told reporters at a Spanish-language briefing that Trump has said he will not do massive deportations. Hispanic and religious leaders who met privately with Trump ahead of the convention said he signaled that he is open to embracing a less punitive immigration policy that focuses on “compassion” along with the rule of law. Trump’s comments Monday come as Republican officials insist the GOP nominee is finally hitting his stride and will catch up with Democrat Hillary Clinton by early September, following a major shake-up to his campaign. Polls now mostly show Trump lagging Clinton by 5 percentage points or more nationally. “Donald Trump has been disciplined and mature. And I think he’s going to get this thing back on track,” Reince Priebus, the Republican National Committee chairman, said Sunday. Conway echoed Priebus’ optimism, contending that the candidate just had the best week of his campaign, “mostly because he’s able to be himself, the authentic Donald Trump.” Conway was named to her post last week in a shake-up in which the campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, resigned and conservative media firebrand Stephen Bannon, who led Breitbart News, took over as campaign chief executive. A new style was immediately evident as Trump, in a first, offered regrets for any remarks that had caused offense, stuck with his teleprompter at a series of events, and paid a visit to flood-ravaged Louisiana. Trump also announced his first ad buys of the campaign, more evidence of an acceptance of the traditional campaign elements most experts believe he will need in order to have a shot at winning. He made a direct appeal to African-American voters, insisting he wants the Republican Party to become their political home. Clinton’s campaign manager, Robby Mook, disputed claims of a turnaround in Trump’s candidacy. “We’re not seeing a pivot. Donald Trump himself said this was not a pivot. He wants to double down on letting Donald Trump be Donald Trump,” Mook said. Indeed, Trump was back to his old self on Twitter Monday morning. He went after MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” tweeting that the show is “unwatchable!” and said its host, Mika Brzezinski, “is off the wall, a neurotic and not very bright mess!” Conway had said Sunday that Trump “doesn’t hurl personal insults.” Conway, Mook and Priebus were interviewed on ABC’s “This Week.” and Conway also spoke on CNN’s “State of the Union.” Republished with permission of The Associated Press.
Donald Trump makes first ad buys in battleground states, including Florida
With his new leadership team promising a sharper message, Donald Trump on Thursday moved to invest nearly $5 million in battleground state advertising. The investment over the coming 10 days in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania marks the Republican presidential contender’s first major general election expenditures in the swing states, which are considered critical to his narrowing path to the White House. The advertising plans, confirmed by Kantar Media’s political ad tracker, come a day after Trump announced another senior staffing shakeup. Weary Republican leaders hope the new leadership team can reverse the New York businessman’s struggles even as some worry it’s too little too late. The Republican nominee tapped Stephen Bannon — a combative conservative media executive with no presidential campaign experience — to serve as CEO of his White House bid. Pollster Kellyanne Conway, who has known Trump for years and gained his trust during her brief tenure working for him, will serve as campaign manager. “I think we’re going to sharpen the message,” Conway told CNN. “We’re going to make sure Donald Trump is comfortable about being in his own skin — that he doesn’t lose that authenticity that you simply can’t buy and a pollster can’t give you. Voters know if you’re comfortable in your own skin.” The Republican National Committee has already conceded it may divert resources away from the presidential contest favor of vulnerable Senate and House candidates if Trump’s standing does not improve in the coming weeks. RNC chief strategist Sean Spicer called Trump’s staffing changes the “healthy growth of the campaign at a senior level at a key point.” He also urged caution as Trump’s new team contemplates whether the fiery populism and freewheeling style that won him the Republican nomination will give him a better shot at the White House than uniting his party and rallying moderate voters. “I think people want him to be authentic,” Spicer said. “They appreciate he’s not a scripted politician, but there’s a recognition that words do matter.” The staffing changes are aimed in part at marginalizing campaign chairman Paul Manafort, a longtime Republican operative who pushed Trump to moderate his tone and improve relations with skeptical Republican officials. In breaking with that approach, Trump appears set on finishing the race on his own terms — win or lose. Trump’s divisive tone and weak poll numbers have triggered a rash of Republican defections in recent weeks. Party loyalists have grown increasingly frustrated with Trump’s inability to stay focused on Democrat Hillary Clinton amid a series of self-created distractions. “I don’t care if Donald Duck is running the campaign,” said Henry Barbour, a Republican National committeeman from Mississippi. “If he can make this thing about Hillary Clinton’s record and getting the country back on track, that’s what’s going to win this election.” Despite the new advertising investment, Trump is woefully behind: Clinton’s campaign has spent more than $75 million on ads in the weeks since she effectively locked up the nomination in early June, according to Kantar Media’s political ad tracker. Trump frequently boasts that his rival is spending heavily while he’s put nothing into advertising, banking so far on free wall-to-wall media coverage to carry his message. While his campaign has been silent through paid media, he’s had some assistance from outside political groups, Kantar Media shows. One, called Rebuilding America Now, has spent about $9 million in the past few weeks. The National Rifle Association’s political arm has also put more than $4 million into anti-Clinton messages. But these amounts pale in comparison to the $31 million the pro-Clinton super PAC Priorities USA has spent on air since mid-June. And that’s just one of several groups helping her. Rarely do presidential campaigns wait so long to advertise, or undergo such a level of leadership tumult at such a stage of the general election. The developments come less than three months before Election Day, and roughly six weeks before early voting begins. Trump’s standing in the White House race plummeted throughout the summer and he now trails Clinton in preference polls of most key battleground states. He’s struggled to offer voters a consistent message, overshadowing formal policy speeches with a steady stream of controversies, including a public feud with an American Muslim family whose son was killed while serving in the U.S. military in Iraq. Bannon’s website has been fiercely loyal to Trump for months and sharply critical of Republican leaders, including House Speaker Paul Ryan. Breitbart has also actively promoted false conspiracy theories about Clinton, and some have then made their way into Trump’s remarks. “Trump is on his third campaign manager in three months. If this was a hot dog stand, conclusion might be there was a problem with the dogs,” Republican strategist Stuart Stevens, a frequent Trump critic, wrote on Twitter. Republished with permission of the Associated Press. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
A lot of holes in GOP presidential ground game in key states
Presidential battleground states were supposed to be swarming with Republican Party workers by now. “We’ve moved on to thousands and thousands of employees,” party chairman Reince Priebus declared in March, contrasting that with the GOP’s late-blooming staffing four years earlier. “We are covering districts across this country in ways that we’ve never had before.” That hasn’t exactly happened, a state-by-state review conducted by The Associated Press has found. With early voting beginning in less than three months in some states, the review reveals that the national GOP has delivered only a fraction of the ground forces detailed in discussions with state leaders earlier in the year. And that is leaving anxious local officials waiting for reinforcements to keep pace with Democrat Hillary Clinton in the states that matter most in 2016. To be sure, the national party actually has notched record levels of fundraising over the past few years and put together a much more robust ground game than it had in 2012. But officials acknowledge the real competition isn’t their past results or the chronically cash-strapped Democratic Party. It’s Clinton and what GOP party chairman Reince Priebus calls “that machine” of Clinton fundraising. Some examples of Republican shortfalls: Ohio Republicans thought they were going to see 220 paid staffers by May; in reality, there are about 50. Plans for Pennsylvania called for 190 paid staffers; there are about 60. Iowa’s planned ground force of 66 by May actually numbers between 25 and 30. In Colorado, recent staff departures have left about two dozen employees, far short of the 80 that were to have been in place. AP learned of the specific May staffing aims from Republicans who were briefed earlier this year; the RNC did not dispute them. Current totals came from interviews with local GOP leaders over the past two weeks. The gulf between what state leaders thought they could count on and what they’ve actually got comes as RNC’s ground game is asked to do more than ever before. Presumptive nominee Donald Trump is relying on the party to do most of the nuts-and-bolts work of finding and persuading voters in the nation’s most competitive battlegrounds. “This is a race we should win,” Ohio GOP chairman Matt Borges said, citing a voter registration boom. “Now, we have to put the people in the field.” In New Hampshire, a swing state that also features one of the nation’s most competitive Senate contests, the Republican National Committee’s original plan called for more than 30 paid staff on the ground by May. Yet what’s happening there highlights that even when the RNC is close to meeting its staffing goals, there can be problems. In this case, 20 positions have been converted to part-time, and local officials have been struggling to fill them. “It’s a tall order to ask the RNC to be the complete field operation for the presidential nominee,” said Steve Duprey, a national party committeeman from New Hampshire. “We’re following through on the plan, but it was slower being implemented than we first would have hoped.” Borges and Duprey, like Republican leaders across the nation, acknowledged that the national party has dramatically reduced its staffing plans in recent months. “You discuss idealistic, you discuss realistic,” said the RNC’s political director Chris Carr. “Some people hear what they want to hear.” The Democrats have been more focused. The GOP’s foes, says party chairman Priebus, “have built their program around a candidate.” By that measure, Clinton and her Democratic allies appear to be quite far ahead, with roughly double the staff of the Republicans in Ohio, for example. For anyone – party or candidate – ground operations are expensive. The RNC’s 242-person payroll cost $1.1 million in May, federally-filed financial documents show. Additionally, the party transfers hundreds of thousands of dollars each month to state parties, which in turn hire more people. Between direct RNC employees and state employees hired with the help of transfers, the party counts more than 750 staff members, including 487 spread across the country and concentrated in battleground states. By contrast, at this point in 2012, there were just 170 paid Republican operatives across the country. Party officials say they are confident they will raise enough money to maintain – and very likely boost – the current level of employees until Election Day. Trump, who did not actively raise money during the primary season, touted surprisingly strong fundraising numbers in late May and June, including $25 million that will be shared with the party. But it was the primary triumph of Trump in May – and the fact that he did not bring with him a hefty portfolio of donors – that derailed the party’s fundraising and hiring goals, party officials said. The timing was important because a nominee typically serves as a major fundraiser for the national party, and having one in March or April would have given the Republicans a boost. A sign on an office door in Sarasota, Florida, illustrates how critical the RNC will be to Trump’s bid for the White House. It’s Trump’s state headquarters. “THANKS FOR STOPPING BY OUR OFFICE!” the blue paper reads. “Our office is TEMPORARILY CLOSED to the public, while our office works to prep for the National Convention in Cleveland.” A phone call to the number on the sign ended with an automated message stating, “Memory is full.” The Republican Party has 75 employees on the ground in Florida – a few dozen shy of Clinton – but they aren’t seamlessly integrated with the Trump campaign. “I do see cooperation between the national party and the Trump campaign,” said Michael Barnett, chairman of the Palm Beach County GOP. “But that hasn’t materialized at the local level yet. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen. It’s a little bit of a late start, but I’m not nervous. Not yet.” Like Florida, Ohio and New Hampshire, Wisconsin is a presidential battleground that features a highly competitive Senate race. That means national party staffers have the dual task
Presidential Primary Brief: 154 days until Election Day
154 days until Election Day Convention Dates: Republican July 18-21 2016, Democratic July 25-28 2016 Weekly Headlines: Obama dives into 2016 fight, lambasts GOP on economy Libertarians Pick Gary Johnson & William Weld as Presidential Election Ticket RNC taps groups reviled by Trump to write GOP platform Press Clips: Frank Luntz: The 2016 presidential election will be determined by the ‘none of the above’ voters (LA Times 6/1/16) If prior elections were decided by soccer moms, security moms, NASCAR dads, or even “the economy, stupid,” the 2016 presidential election will be determined by the NAs — the none of the above voters who have so far refused to support either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. For them, the election isn’t about mere dissatisfaction. It’s about rejection. Comprising about 11% of the electorate in the critical swing states, the NAs are unwilling or unable to distinguish between our two wildly different candidates — arguably the most different of any presumptive nominees in modern history. These voters are loud, aggressive, and they give me a headache. San Jose, California, police under fire after Trump rally (WTOP 6/3/16) This Silicon Valley city and its police department are facing mounting complaints of a tepid and tardy law enforcement response to attacks of Donald Trump supporters after a political rally. Videos circulating online show physical clashes occurring in front of San Jose police officers dressed in riot gear and standing stoically in a line outside the convention center where Trump spoke. Critics also complained that assaults occurred on side streets near the venue that lacked police presence. Election 2016 Leadership Contrast: Résumé vs. Bumper Sticker, Pollster Says (WSJ 6/3/16) As the 2016 presidential primary season comes to a close for both parties, voters have gotten a pretty clear impression of what kind of leadership they would get from former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and New York businessman Donald Trump. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll helps illustrate how dramatically different those impressions of the two presumptive nominees are. GOP pollster Micah Roberts concludes that Mrs. Clinton’s selling points read like a résumé; Mr. Trump’s like a bumper sticker. Boomers 35% Of Voters In 2016 Presidential Election (MediaPost 5/30/16) According to the American Consumers Newsletter by Cheryl Russell, New Strategist Press, the Baby-Boom generation will account for more than one-third of voters in the 2016 presidential election, outnumbering voters in the other generations. Millennials will account for 26% of the total. Gen Xers will rank third, casting 20% of votes, more than the Silent and World War II generations combined. The oldest members of the iGeneration (aged 18 to 21) will cast their first vote for president in 2016, and they will account for just 4% of the total. Demo Memo calculated these figures by applying single-year-of-age citizenship and voting rates from the 2012 presidential election to the Census Bureau’s 2016 population projections. How Donald Trump could win (CNN 6/1/16) Donald Trump’s transition from primary flame-thrower to general-election standard bearer has been marked by controversy. In just the past week, he’s caused an uproar by blasting the Republican governor of New Mexico — one of the party’s most prominent Latinas — while also calling Elizabeth Warren “Pocahontas” and abruptly parting ways with his recently hired political director. But there are also signs that he’s willing to moderate some of his primary positions and take more conventional steps to prepare for November, such as building out a national finance team, hiring a pollster, accepting checks from wealthy donors and hitting the fundraising circuit. Oil analyst: Here’s who Saudi Arabia wants as the next U.S. president (CNBC 6/1/16) The U.S. presidential race is capturing the interest of every nation as onlookers look to see who becomes the next “leader of the free world.” According to Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Group, countries in the oil-producing Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, are hoping for Hillary Clinton to become president. The presidential election is scheduled for early November and the two leading contenders are viewed as Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, and Clinton, front- runner for the Democratic nomination. How new voter ID laws may affect the 2016 presidential contest (PBS 6/5/16) 17 states will have new voting regulations in place for the presidential election this November. 12 states will join the ranks of those requiring voters to show a government-issued photo ID, including North Carolina and Texas. For more insight on these new regulations, Hari Sreenivasan speaks with Reuters National Affairs Editor Jason Szep. California’s registered voters hit record high ahead of Tuesday presidential primary (LA Times 6/5/16) With one of the most closely watched presidential primary seasons in modern times0, California’s voter rolls grew by almost 650,000 in the final six weeks of registration. And three of every four new voters were Democrats. On Friday, Secretary of State Alex Padilla released the final report of voter registration prior to the June 7 statewide primary. The deadline to register for Tuesday’s election was May 23. Of the 646,220 people who registered in the final rush —between April 8 and May 23 — 76% became Democrats. ‘Missing’ White Voters Might Help Trump, But Less So Where He Needs It (FiveThirtyEight 6/2/16) A common refrain is that demographics will ultimately doom Donald Trump’s candidacy. His most reliable supporters have been whites without college degrees — a group that made up 65 percent of voters in 1980 but is on pace to make up just 33 percent in 2016. Meanwhile, nonwhite voters, with whom Trump is extremely unpopular, rose from 12 percent of the electorate in 1980 to 28 percent in 2012.
Donald Trump’s campaign investment tops $43 million
Donald Trump poured more than $7.5 million of his own money into his presidential campaign in April, bringing his total personal investment to more than $43 million since he declared his candidacy, new campaign finance reports filed late Friday show. The billionaire businessman, who swatted away 16 Republican rivals and relied heavily on wall-to-wall media coverage of his outsized personality and often inflammatory remarks, reported spending about $56 million during the primary, which lasted until his final two rivals, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, dropped out of the race at the beginning of May. In April alone, Trump spent nearly $9.4 million, according to his monthly filing with the Federal Election Commission. Trump’s largest expense in April, about $2.6 million, was for advertisements. The campaign also spent more than $930,000 on direct mail. Other big-ticket items included roughly $585,000 in airfare paid to Trump’s TAG Air Inc. While much of Trump’s money has come from his own pocket, he reported about $1.7 million in donations last month. Those contributions have come largely from people buying Trump’s campaign merchandise, including the red “Make America Great Again” ball caps, and giving online through his campaign website. Trump didn’t begin developing a team of fundraisers until recently, after he became the presumptive GOP nominee. Almost all of Trump’s personal investment has come in the form of loans. That leaves open the possibility that he can repay himself now that he’s aggressively seeking donations. A new fundraising agreement he struck with the Republican National Committee and 11 state parties explicitly seeks contributions for his primary campaign. Yet Trump said in a statement this week that he has “absolutely no intention” of paying himself back. Instead, he will be able to use any primary money he raises, in increments of up to $2,700 per donor, on expenses such as salaries, advertising and voter outreach over the next nine weeks. After the GOP convention in late July, Trump will officially become the nominee and be restricted to spending money that’s earmarked for the general election. His likely rival, Democrat Hillary Clinton, has a head start on building a war chest for the November election. She partnered with Democratic parties months ago and has been raising millions of dollars for them. In April alone, she collected almost $800,000 in campaign money for the general election. By contrast, Trump will hold his first campaign fundraiser next week, an event in Los Angeles where the minimum price of admission is $25,000, according to the invitation. Those donations are to be split among Trump’s campaign and his Republican Party allies. In addition to the Trump campaign’s financial health, the filings also show that when Cruz dropped out, money wasn’t the issue: He had $9.4 million in his campaign coffers at the end of April, just days before his defeat May 3 in the Indiana primary prompted him to end his bid. At the time, Cruz said he left the race because he saw no path forward. Republished with permission of The Associated Press.
Donald Trump’s questioning of the value of data worries Republicans
Donald Trump says he plans to win the White House largely on the strength of his personality, not by leaning heavily on complex voter data operations that have become a behind-the-scenes staple in modern presidential campaigns. Shortly after Trump explained his approach in an Associated Press interview — data is “overrated,” he said — one of the presumptive Republican nominee’s top advisers tried to clarify the remarks. Rick Wiley told AP the Trump campaign will indeed tap the Republican Party’s massive cache of voter information. The national Republican Party has spent massive sums of money to develop the database since President Barack Obama‘s election set a new standard for using data in national campaigns, from deciding where to send a candidate and how to spend advertising dollars to making sure supporters cast a ballot. The back-and-forth in the Trump camp leaves Republicans and Democrats alike wondering just how committed the candidate actually is to what has become accepted wisdom among political professionals. Some Republicans worry that Trump risks ceding potential advantages to likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton if he’s not willing to invest the money required to keep updating the data, and then use it effectively. “It’s a big risk,” said Chris Wilson, who ran an expansive data operation for Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, Trump’s stiffest competition in the Republican primaries. Jeremy Bird, who worked for President Barack Obama’s data-rich campaign, said: “Flying blind is nuts.” The use of data has evolved over the past several presidential campaigns into a shorthand for using information — starting with simple lists of potential voters, then mated with extensive details about their habits and beliefs — to guide a campaign toward its ultimate goal: the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. In his AP interview, Trump discounted the value of data: The “candidate is by far the most important thing,” he said. He said he plans a “limited” use of data in his general election campaign and suggested Obama’s victories — universally viewed by political professionals as groundbreaking in the way data steered the campaign to voters — are misunderstood. “Obama got the votes much more so than his data processing machine, and I think the same is true with me,” Trump said, explaining that he will continue to focus on his signature rallies, free television exposure and his personal social media accounts to win voters over. Buzz Jacobs, who was on the losing end of Obama’s success in 2008 as an aide to GOP nominee John McCain, said Trump oversimplifies the president’s victories. “We lost in large part because Obama’s ability to use data was so much better than ours,” Jacobs said. According to South Carolina’s Republican chairman, Matt Moore: “Elections to a great degree are won on … that last 1 or 2 percent that shows up or stays home. That group on either edge turns out because of data and digital. That’s a known fact.” Republicans and Democrats with experience running campaigns question why Trump would give up a chance to reinforce with data his ubiquitous presence on television and inarguable success with large-scale rallies — a platform of personality that Clinton has yet to match. Bird, whose consulting firm now works for the Clinton campaign, said Trump is giving himself a false choice. “At a big picture level, sure, Barack Obama got the votes — his bio, his policies, his ability to communicate,” Bird said. “But we wanted to do everything we could to get him and get his message to the right people.” Jacobs, who worked this year for a former Trump rival, Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, said Trump is an outlier in being uninterested in data. The RNC and private groups, such as the billionaire conservative activist brothers Charles and David Koch, have spent hundreds of millions on their data programs since Obama’s election. “It would be silly to leave those on the sidelines,” Jacobs said. To be sure, Trump has not wholly abandoned data. His campaign spending disclosures show payments to multiple data firms, and the campaign maintains contact information collected when voters register for tickets to his rallies. Wiley, a recent addition to the Trump team who previously worked for the national party, said he is “working with the RNC, putting together a state-of-the-art program.” He predicted it would be able to match what “Obama was able to do in 2008.” But Trump’s in-house data shop is thin, and the candidate has said that he does not give priority to the ground game. Trump’s most significant loss of the primary season came in the leadoff Iowa caucuses, a victory for Cruz that was largely credited to the Texas senator’s sophisticated campaign effort to turn out voters. Wilson said he used the Cruz campaign’s data to run nightly “models” leading up to the caucuses, which predicted turnout and outcomes and allowed the campaign to adjust its approach every day. That means if Wiley and Trump’s other campaign staffers are able to persuade him to pay attention to the data, they’ll also need to persuade him to raise and spend the money to use it effectively in competitive states. “He has to be convinced,” South Carolina chairman Moore said. Then again, he said, “We’ve all been wrong about Trump for pretty much this entire campaign.” Republished with permission of The Associated Press.
Bradley Byrne calls on GOP to unite to defeat Hillary Clinton
GOP Congressman Bradley Byrne has a message for Republicans: It’s time to unite behind Donald Trump. In a statement Wednesday, Byrne urged Republicans to unite behind the presumptive Republican nominee in order to defeat the likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. “The primary process has been long and challenging, but the American people have spoken loud and clear,” said Byrne. “The time has come for the Republican Party to unite to defeat Hillary Clinton, and I will be voting for Donald Trump in November. With everything going on in the world today, these times require a strong leader who understands the need for a powerful military and who will stand up for our veterans. We cannot tolerate four more years of bloated, expensive, liberal policies that make life harder for American families.” Trump all but clinched the Republican presidential nomination Tuesday with a victory in Indiana that knocked his opponents Ted Cruz and John Kasich out of the race. Trump still needs more than 200 delegates to formally secure the nomination, but his rival’s decisions to end their campaigns removed his last major obstacle. Trump said he spoke with Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus Tuesday night. Priebus, who has had a contentious relationship thus far in the process with Trump, made clear the reality TV star and businessman would be at the top of the ticket in November. .@realDonaldTrump will be presumptive @GOP nominee, we all need to unite and focus on defeating @HillaryClinton #NeverClinton — Reince Priebus (@Reince) May 4, 2016 Trump is expected to secure the Party’s formal nomination at the Republican National Convention, set to take place July 18-21 2016 at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio.
Darryl Paulson: Candidate’s running mate rarely affects outcome of presidential election
The national conventions are less than three months away and, as the nomination phase comes to a close, attention will gravitate toward potential vice presidential candidates. Let’s focus on the factors that have been used in selecting vice presidents. Most conventional wisdom is wrong. To begin with, most people and many presidential candidates select a vice president who they believe will help them win the election. Few vice presidents have had any effect on the election results. Jack Kemp did not help carry his home state for Bob Dole and Paul Ryan did not win Wisconsin for Mitt Romney. On the Democratic side, Sen. Lloyd Bentsen was not able to carry Texas for Michael Dukakis, nor did John Edwards help the Democrats win South Carolina or other southern states. One of the few times a vice president actually helped a president carry a state was in 1960 when John F. Kennedy picked Sen. Lyndon Johnson as his running mate. If Kennedy had not won Texas, Richard Nixon would have won the presidency. In like fashion, vice presidents are sometimes selected to provide regional balance, although there is no evidence that this helps. When Bill Clinton of Arkansas picked fellow southerner Al Gore as his vice president, many thought this unbalanced regional ticket was crazy. When the Clinton-Gore team captured the electoral vote of four southern states, something that Democrats had been unable to do in recent presidential elections, Clinton’s choice looked like genius. In addition to regional balance, vice presidents are sometimes selected to provide ideological balance. With increased polarization in recent years, this is becoming a less important factor. In 1976, Ronald Reagan announced Sen. Richard Schweiker of Pennsylvania as his vice presidential choice prior to the convention. Reagan hoped to alleviate the fears of some that he was too conservative and needed a moderate to balance the ticket. More importantly, Reagan hoped that picking Schweiker would convince some Pennsylvania delegates to support his candidacy over incumbent Gerald Ford. The pick of Schweiker did not help Reagan and Ford went on to win the nomination. Many Democrats in 2016 see Hillary Clinton as too conservative and too establishment and have urged her to choose a progressive as vice president. In addition to Bernie Sanders, other progressive names being floated are Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. A vice president is sometimes selected to stimulate participation by a particular group. Walter Mondale selected Geraldine Ferraro to get more women to vote. That pick didn’t provide much help. Mondale won only his home state of Minnesota and the District of Columbia against Reagan. Vice presidents have been picked to add gravitas to the ticket. Concerns about Reagan’s limited government experience led him to pick George Herbert Walker Bush as his vice president. Bush had been a member of Congress, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and to China, head of the Republican National Committee and head of the CIA prior to his selection. Bush’s son, George W., picked Dick Cheney as his vice president to add heft to his ticket. Cheney had served as Chief-of-Staff to Ford, been a member of the House, and served as Secretary of Defense for George W’s father. In fact, Cheney headed George W’s vice presidential selection team and concluded he was the best candidate. Do any of these factors help a presidential candidate win? The answer is no. A study by two political scientists, Bernard Grofman and Reuben Kline, analyzed 11 presidential elections between 1968 and 2008 and found the net effect of a vice president was 1 percent at most. If Clinton is the Democratic nominee, she may pick a progressive or choose someone like Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro. Although not well known, Castro’s youth and Hispanic background might help stimulate Hispanic turnout. If Trump is the GOP nominee, it is easier to put together a list of people he would not select than those he would. There is little chance that “lying Ted,” “little Marco,” or “low energy Bush” would want to join forces with Trump. Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin is one possibility since he dropped out of the nomination race early before Trump had the opportunity to insult him. Chris Christie is another option because he was the first major candidate to endorse Trump after Christie withdrew. Another option is Florida Gov. Rick Scott. Florida is a “must win” state and Scott endorsed Trump as a “businessman outsider who will shake up the status quo in Washington.” Although most of the factors in the vice presidential selection process have been shown to have little impact, there are two general rules that no president should ignore. First, pick someone you feel comfortable working with. Second, and most important, pick someone who is ready to be president. Nothing else matters. *** Darryl Paulson is Professor Emeritus of Government at USF St. Petersburg.
Donald Trump – Ted Cruz feud shifts to luxury seaside resort in Florida
The messy fight for the Republican presidential nomination is shifting to a luxury seaside resort in south Florida as Donald Trump and chief rival Ted Cruz quietly court party leaders ahead of another set of high-stakes delegate contests. Cruz conceded publicly for the first time that he doesn’t have enough support to claim the nomination before the party’s summertime national convention, but he also vowed Wednesday to block Trump from collecting the necessary delegates as well. The Texas conservative predicted a contested convention that many party loyalists fear could trigger an all-out Republican civil war. “What’s clear today is that we are headed to a contested convention,” Cruz told reporters in between private meetings with Republican National Committee members gathered at the Diplomat Resort & Spa for the first day of their three-day annual spring meeting. Campaigning in Indiana, Trump railed against his party’s leadership, even as his senior lieutenants courted GOP officials behind closed doors in Florida. “It’s a rigged, crooked system that’s designed so that the bosses can pick whoever they want and that people like me can’t run and can’t defend you against foreign nonsense,” Trump charged at the Indiana State Fairgrounds. Roughly at the same time, Trump’s newly hired political director, Rick Wiley, was hosting a series of private meetings at the Florida resort with party officials from states set to vote in the coming weeks. The veteran political operative, who previously worked for the RNC, is tasked with helping Trump play catch-up in the complicated state-by-state nomination process. Trump’s top aides were set to deliver a private briefing to RNC members Thursday afternoon outlining his path to victory. Both Trump and the Democratic front-runner, Hillary Clinton, were pushing ahead toward Northeast primaries on an increasingly direct path to party nominations after trouncing their challengers Tuesday in New York. Clinton, now 81 percent of the way toward clinching the Democratic nomination that eluded her eight years ago, can lose every remaining contest and still prevail. Advisers to rival Bernie Sanders offered no signs of the Vermont senator giving up before the Democrats’ Philadelphia convention. Trump is increasingly optimistic about his chances in five states set to vote on Tuesday: Rhode Island, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Delaware and Maryland. He is now the only Republican candidate who can possibly collect the 1,237 delegate majority needed to claim the nomination before the party’s July convention. Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich have been mathematically eliminated, yet both contend they can win the nomination at the convention. Despite getting shut out of the delegate race in New York, Cruz is aggressively courting delegates across the nation who could hold great sway at the convention. Kaisch and Cruz set their sights on Pennsylvania and Indiana respectively, looking to capitalize on any remaining delegates up for grabs, even as polls show Trump dominating in some of the biggest remaining races. Trump, meanwhile, joined his wife and adult children on NBC’s “Today” Thursday for a town hall that discussed family and politics. Trump weighed in on the decision to put Harriet Tubman on the face of the $20, replacing Andrew Jackson, a move he described as “pure political correctness.” He said Tubman is “fantastic,” but Jackson has “been on the bill for many, many years” and “really represented somebody that really was very important to this country.” Trump also said transgender people should be able to use whichever bathroom they choose, responding to North Carolina’s so-called “bathroom law” which directs transgender people to use the bathroom that matches the gender on their birth certificates. “There have been very few complaints the way it is. People go, they use the bathroom that they feel is appropriate. There has been so little trouble,” he said. The side-by-side GOP efforts at this late stage – with Trump amassing primary victories while Cruz digs for the support of delegates who could settle the nomination – are unprecedented in recent presidential campaigns and add to the deeply uncertain nature of the race. While the primary campaign is a focus of the RNC meeting, party leaders are painfully aware that any changes in the nomination process could fuel Trump’s charges of an unfair system. Party chairman Reince Priebus has discouraged any rule changes this week. Priebus believes the convention rules should be left to the separate rules committee elected at the convention, made up of delegates being elected to seats across the country, said RNC senior strategist Sean Spicer. “The chairman’s view is that the rules of the convention should be set by the delegates, by the grassroots Republican voters,” Spicer said. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
GOP official rails over effort aimed at nomination rules
In an extraordinary display of internal discord, the chairman of the Republican Party’s rules committee accused top GOP officials Saturday of “a breach of our trust” by improperly trying to impede a proposed change in bylaws that would make it harder for party leaders to nominate a fresh candidate for president. Bruce Ash, RNC committeeman from Arizona, wrote the harshly worded email to the other 55 members of the GOP rules committee that he chairs. The confidential email, obtained by The Associated Press, was written days before party officials gather in Hollywood, Florida, for preliminary discussions about what rules the GOP will use at its presidential nominating convention this July. Ash wrote the note at a time when some top Republicans consider the party’s two leading presidential contenders, billionaire Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, to be likely November election losers and have discussed how to replace them with alternatives at the summer convention in Cleveland, Ohio. It is possible that no contenders will have the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination at that gathering, which would produce the first GOP convention without a presumptive nominee since 1976. Trump has bitterly clashed with party leaders over rules that he claims have been rigged against him, a charge party leaders deny. Ash said he has “become troubled” during discussions with RNC Chairman Reince Priebus and other party officials that by not making the proposed change, GOP officials “could use their power to attempt to achieve a political result” at the nominating convention. He said the convention’s presiding officer could use existing rules to “unilaterally reopen nominations to allow a candidate to be nominated that is viewed as more acceptable, which is exactly what so many rank-and-file Republicans across America fear.” His email did not mention that House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., is expected to be presiding officer for much of the convention. Some opponents of Trump and Cruz have suggested that Ryan, his party’s 2012 vice presidential candidate, would be a preferable presidential nominee this year, but Ryan has said he doesn’t want to be tabbed. In an email sent hours later, RNC chief counsel John Ryder said the controversial amendment would, in fact, be included among the items given priority consideration when party officials discuss convention rules this week in Florida. But echoing the view of Priebus and some other Republicans on the party’s rules committee, Ryder added, “Major changes now are dangerous and not a good idea, in my humble opinion.” Many Republican leaders have said party officials should not change current convention rules for fear of being accused by the competing presidential candidates of tilting the bylaws to influence the outcome. They have noted that the final decisions on the rules will be made anyway by the convention’s 2,472 delegates, probably on July 18, the gathering’s first day. When Republicans meet in Florida next week to discuss their rules, Oregon RNC committeeman Solomon Yue wants to propose not running full convention meetings under the rules of the House of Representatives, a long tradition. Instead, Yue wants to use Roberts Rules of Order. Yue and others say under the Roberts rules, it would be easier for the convention’s delegates to vote to block an effort by the convention’s presiding officer to consider new nominees for president. Under House rules, the presiding officer has more power to make decisions about the proceedings. Ash said RNC officials have repeatedly asked him and Yue to withdraw Yue’s proposal or even to cancel this week’s GOP rules committee meeting. Ash said he refused. He said that last Thursday, Ryder “convened a rules committee whip call to strategize against and led the opposition to the Yue amendment at the chairman’s request.” He said during that call, RNC officials acknowledged that Yue’s amendment had been “pre-submitted” by a deadline that would give it priority treatment his week. But the next afternoon, Ash said, the RNC sent an email “incorrectly stating” that Yue’s proposed amendment had not been submitted in time to be included in the agenda for next week’s meeting. That would deprive it of priority consideration. “In view of the above, I consider this to be a breach of our trust,” Ash wrote. He added, “In light of this breach and an apparent unwillingness to conduct a proper debate on the amendment, is it prudent for the RNC to continue to give the extraordinary power of the House rules to the presiding officer of the convention, as opposed to the more transparent, democratic and majoritarian rules in Roberts?” Ryder wrote that party officials thought they were following Yue’s desire to circulate his amendment to delegates early next week, even though Yue submitted his proposal in time for the earlier “pre-submission deadline.” “Of course, we wouldn’t have left out Mr. Yue’s amendment from the notice if we thought he wanted it included,” Ryder wrote. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Email insights: RNC fights back against Donald Trump, ‘campaigns have to know’ rules
The Republican National Committee (RNC) is fighting back against claims from GOP front-runner Donald Trump that the party establishment is trying to take the nomination away from him. Sean Spicer, Chief Strategist and Communications Director of the RNC, sent an email to all interested parties Friday noting that all 50 states, five territories and the District of Columbia submitted their rules for selecting delegates by last Oct. 1. And that the party circulated that information to every campaign and briefing the media on Oct. 2. “As a party, we believe in the freedom of the states to make decisions about how they will select delegates to the National Convention. And for decades, this grassroots-driven, democratic process has been transparent and effective,” Spicer wrote in the email. “This cycle is no different.” “It ultimately falls on the campaigns to be up to speed on these delegate rules. Campaigns have to know when absentee ballots are due, how long early voting lasts in certain states, or the deadlines for voter registration; the delegate rules are no different,” Spicer continued. Read the full email below: On October 1 of last year, 50 states, 5 territories, and the District of Columbia submitted finalized plans for how delegates would be chosen for the Republican National Convention. These plans were promptly circulated to all of the campaigns and the RNC held a briefing with over 100 members of the media in attendance laying out these plans the next day on October 2. As a party, we believe in the freedom of the states to make decisions about how they will select delegates to the National Convention. And for decades, this grassroots-driven, democratic process has been transparent and effective. This cycle is no different. The rules surrounding the delegate selection have been clearly laid out in every state and territory and while each state is different, each process is easy to understand for those willing to learn it. It ultimately falls on the campaigns to be up to speed on these delegate rules. Campaigns have to know when absentee ballots are due, how long early voting lasts in certain states, or the deadlines for voter registration; the delegate rules are no different. Whether delegates are awarded through a primary, caucus, or convention, this process is democracy in action and driven by grassroots voters across the country. The RNC is transparent about the rules and works with campaigns on a consistent basis to address any questions surrounding the process. As we head into the final contests in April, here is a rundown of those elections and how their delegates will be selected: WYOMING (29 DELEGATES) Delegates in Wyoming are elected at the grassroots level at the Wyoming State Party Convention. Campaigns can organize supporters to run as delegates and those candidates can be bound if they declare for a candidate. NEW YORK (95 DELEGATES) On April 19, New York Republicans will go to the polls with 95 delegates at stake. Delegates are awarded by congressional district and on an at-large basis. If a candidate receives over 50 percent of the vote in a congressional district they win all three of the at-large delegates in that district. Only those candidates who receive more than 20 percent of the vote are eligible to receive delegates. The delegates bound by the primary vote will then be elected by their peers at grassroots congressional district meetings. The 11 at-large delegates to the National Convention are voted on by the Republican State Committee at their meeting on May 18. APRIL 26th STATES (172 DELEGATES) CONNECTICUT (28 DELEGATES) Delegates are submitted as slates by the candidates and are awarded on an at-large and congressional district basis. At-large delegates are awarded proportionately for all candidates who receive over 20 percent of the vote with all at-large delegates awarded to a candidate if they break 50 percent. The plurality winner of the congressional district vote wins all three delegates from the district. Both the at-large and congressional are elected at the State Committee Meeting on April 26. DELAWARE (16 DELEGATES) Delegates are awarded on a winner-take-all basis and are voted on as a slate at the state convention on April 29. MARYLAND (38 DELEGATES) Three delegates for each candidate are elected directly on the ballot in each congressional district and at-large delegates are voted on individually at the State Central Committee meeting on May 14. Congressional district delegates are winner-take-all by district vote, at-large delegates are winner-take-all by statewide vote. PENNSYLVANIA (71 DELEGATES) Pennsylvania elects three delegates from each congressional district on the primary ballot and the State Committee elects 14 at-large delegates at their meeting on May 21. Congressional district delegates are submitted by campaigns, though are technically unbound. At-large delegates are winner-take-all based on the statewide vote. RHODE ISLAND (19 DELEGATES) Delegates are elected directly on the ballot in the primary election. Delegates are awarded proportionately on an at-large and congressional district basis with a 10 percent threshold. For more information and facts about the convention, conventionfacts.gop addresses frequently asked questions about delegates, the rules, and how the process works.
