Steve Flowers: Inside the Statehouse
Most people would assume that as the race for the open U.S. Senate began that Luther Strange, the appointed incumbent, was the favorite. However, polling indicated that Roy Moore was the favorite and still is as we head towards the September 26 runoff. The initial polling showed that Moore had a hardcore 30 percent. It was and is as solid as a rock. He had 30 percent from the get-go. He had 30 percent midway in the race and he had 30 percent at the end. It was also a fact that with a low voter turnout that his 30 percent would become accentuated because the final poll and the one that counts is election day and who actually shows up to vote. Moore’s supporters are more ardent and are going to show up to vote for him come hell or high water. They are also older, and older people tend to vote; 65-80 year old voters are always more likely to vote. The turnout on August 15 was 18 percent and Moore’s vote total was 39 percent. Allow me to crow a little – the day before the election I predicted an 18 percent turnout and that Moore would get 39 percent. I missed Luther Strange by some six points. I had him at 27 percent. He did better than I thought. He garnered 33 percent. There was only six points separating Strange and Moore. This is not an insurmountable obstacle to overcome. My early handicapping of the runoff has it as a dead heat between Moore and Strange. As the race began, it was apparent that it was a two-man race between Moore and Strange. Moore began with an immovable evangelical block and the Washington Republican Senate leadership made it clear that they were going to treat Strange as an incumbent and that they were going to give him unlimited resources. They weren’t just whistling Dixie. They put their money where their mouth was. They must have spent $5 million. When you have that kind of money and the national powerbrokers and hierarchy dictating their choice, you not only have all the media ads available, you also have access to the very best hired guns, pollsters and media gurus in the country. They are the best gunslingers in the land. They do not lose many gunfights and they like to go negative. It was obvious that these pros saw that Donald Trump or at least his public policies are extremely popular among Alabama Republican primary voters. Therefore, their script for Luther Strange was to say he was on Donald Trump’s side and would be for the Trump agenda to make America great again. Luther stuck to the script and did a good job avoiding any negative questions about the questionable Robert Bentley appointment. Unlimited money washes away any unsavory scenarios and allows you to dictate the narrative. The early polling revealed that the Bentley appointment was an albatross for Luther. I do not personally believe that Luther and Bentley ever discussed the Bentley investigation. However, to most people it looked as though the appointment was a brazen deal or at least collusion and in politics, perception is reality. Therefore, for this reason on Luther’s part and for obvious reasons on Moore’s part, they both began with high negatives. Internal polling showed that there was fertile ground for a third person to win this race. That third person emerged in the form of Tennessee Valley Congressman, Mo Brooks. He is a firebrand arch conservative intellectual, Tea Party, Freedom Caucus, true believing ideologue. He was bold enough to take on the Mitch McConnell super PAC big money Washington establishment. He had $1.2 million in his Congressional campaign account and 20 percent statewide name recognition from his Congressional district. Mo did not plan on being shot at by a left wing Bernie Sanders socialist nut while practicing baseball for the Republican Party baseball team. However, the exposure gave him $2 million in free publicity. You could have no better introduction to Alabama GOP Primary voters. The Washington Luther Strange gunslingers saw the momentum that Mo had. He was about to catch Luther and they stopped him dead in his tracks with an ad that said he was not going to vote for Donald Trump last year. When Trump endorsed Big Luther it closed the deal. Luther had his place in the runoff and Mo has to fight to keep his U.S. House seat. The final results were predictable. Roy Moore led with 39 percent; Luther Strange got a strong 33 percent; and Mo Brooks finished with a respectable 20 percent. The runoff between Strange and Moore is too close to call at this time. See you next week. ••• Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
Virus breaches Statehouse email system
During debate over the state education budget Thursday, House Speaker Mike Hubbard broke in to ask lawmakers to avoid opening state email because of a security breach. “We urge you to please not open any any emails that are coming from any entity of the state of Alabama until they get this figured out,” Hubbard said. Hubbard said it was unclear where the breach originated. Brunson White, secretary of information and technology, confirmed that the Legislature’s email system had been compromised by a virus. White said that the breach was limited to legislators and support staff using the satellite system. The statewide email system, with more than 18,000 users, wasn’t affected. “The Legislature has its own system, and it’s run independent of the rest of the state,” White said. “As of now, systems on the other agencies and the statewide systems are uncompromised.” He told Alabama Today that the issue is being addressed by the Legislature’s IT staff, and that the team expects to resolve the issue Friday. In the interim, White advises the public: “If anyone does receive an nefarious or odd-looking email from the Legislature, they should not open them.”
House passes “austere” budget plan by 66-36 vote
A barebones budget plan to fund government services is on its way to the Senate, having passed the Alabama House Tuesday by a vote of 66 to 36. The plan assumes no new sources of revenue for the state and just $1.64 billion available to spend from the general fund, an 11 percent decrease from 2014. The budget plan includes level funding for Medicaid, the Department of Mental Health, the Department of Human Resources, and the Administrative Office of the Courts. Other agencies that are appropriated through the General Fund would see a 2 percent budget cut. House Ways and Means Chairman Rep. Steve Clouse has said that the budget “isn’t what anyone likes” but that the deep cuts were necessary in the absence of a plan for new revenue. Gov. Robert Bentley has already said he would veto the plan should it arrive on his desk.
This week at the Statehouse: Legislative Days 19-20
The talk of the town this week is expected to be about the gaming proposals Sen. Del Marsh drafted and sent home to members last week and the Poarch Creek Indian Tribe’s counter offer. Then there’s the lawsuit that the State Auditor Jim Zeigler has announced he’ll drop Monday to challenge Attorney General Luther Strange for his decision not to challenge school boards from using tax payer money to lobby for tax increases. Here are some of the proposals expected to move in the statehouse this week: Sen. Cam Ward’s comprehensive prison reform bill Senate Bill 67 could go to the House floor was early as Tuesday, according to reports from AL.Com. On Tuesday in the House Ways and Means Committee there will be four bills up. They include House Bill 572 which would raise the cigarette taxes from $.425 a pack to $.675 a pack, House Bill 267 which would raise the rental car tax from one-half percent to four percent and House Bill 590 which would authorize the state skipping the 2015-2016 longevity pay paid out at the beginning of December for state employees. On Wednesday, an education policy panel will hear comments on House Bill 243 to authorize local boards of education to admit or readmit students up to age 21 into the 12th grade. That same panel is expected to vote on Erin’s Law House Bill 197, a proposal to provide age-appropriate instruction in public schools on recognizing and avoiding child sexual abuse. The health committee is slated to vote on a trio of proposals governing abortion on Wednesday. The committee declined to vote last week following public hearings on the Fetal Heartbeat Act, the Healthcare Rights of Conscience Act, and a proposal to bar clinics within 2,000 feet of a public school. Keep checking ALToday.com for updates. *Article updated to reflect tax bills heard on Tuesday not Wednesday.
ICYMI: This week at the Statehouse
What happened at the statehouse this week? Glad you asked! Here are a few things you might have missed from week eight of the 2015 legislative session. •Sen. Cam Ward’s proposal to reform Alabama prisons is inching closer to the finish line. •Victims of domestic violence would have stronger protection under House Bill 320. The legislation passed out of committee this week. •A House panel on commerce considered a bill to add term limits, pay caps, and new members to the Birmingham Water Works Board. •Still no answer on whether ride share services like Uber and Lyft will be coming to Alabama. •Alabama finally has an official crustacean, thanks to legislation passed in the House on Thursday. That was the only bill to come out of the House before lawmakers adjourned for the weekend. Still no word on whether the queen honey bee will become Alabama’s official agricultural insect.
