Dr. Eric Ostermeier: Will Luther Strange lose Alabama’s GOP U.S. Senate nomination?
Only five out of 60 Republican appointed senators seeking to keep their seat over the last 100+ years lost their party’s nomination in the next election. With 10 Republican candidates appearing on Tuesday’s ballot – including the incumbent, a U.S. Representative, and a very well-known ex-state supreme court justice – a primary runoff for the GOP U.S. Senate special election in Alabama is all but assured with no candidate expected to capture a majority of the vote. Senator Luther Strange is hoping Donald Trump’s 11th-hour endorsement will ensure he is one of the top two candidates headed to the runoff, besting four-term Congressman Mo Brooks with former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore expected to emerge with a plurality. Should Strange fail to make or lose the subsequent September 26th primary runoff, he will become just the second appointed senator since the 1970s to come up short in such a bid. Overall, slightly less than two-thirds of appointed senators have run to keep their seat the next time it came up on the ballot in the direct election era – 126 of 196 appointees (64.3 percent). Prior to Strange, the vast majority of appointees who sought their party’s nomination were successful – 101 of 125 (80.8 percent), including 84.4 percent over the last half-century (27 of 32). [Note: A few of these 125 appointed senators did not run in the special election for the seat to which they were appointed, but ran instead in the election held simultaneously for the state’s other Senate seat]. Since 1980, appointees nearly have an unblemished mark with 21 of 22 U.S. Senators receiving their party’s nomination, including each of the last 12 aspiring to keep their seat since 1999. The only lawmaker who failed in such an attempt since 1980 was Kansas Republican Sheila Frahm in 1996. Frahm was appointed to the seat in June 1996 after Bob Dole resigned to focus on his presidential bid. Freshman U.S. Representative Sam Brownback defeated Frahm in the primary three months later by 13.1 points in a three-candidate field. Since 1967, just five such incumbents failed to win their party’s primary election. In addition to Frahm, the other four are: Democrat David Gambrell (Georgia, 1972): lost in a runoff to state Representative Sam Nunn Democrat Howard Metzenbaum (Ohio, 1974): lost to famed astronaut John Glenn by 8.7 points Democrat Paul Hatfield (Montana, 1978): lost to U.S. Representative Max Baucus by 45.9 points Democrat Maryon Pittman Allen (Alabama, 1978): lost in a runoff to Alabama State Senator Donald Stewart Of the 24 appointed Senators who failed to win their party’s nomination since 1913, more than 40 percent have come from the Southern region: 10 from the South, five each from the Midwest and West, and four from the Northeast. If Strange fails to emerge as the GOP nominee on Tuesday or in September’s runoff, he will become just the sixth Republican U.S. Senator to come up short in the direct election era out of 61 candidacies: Joseph Grundy (Pennsylvania, 1930): lost to U.S. Labor Secretary James Davis Frank Partridge (Vermont, 1931): lost to former St. Albans Mayor Warren Austin by 10.2 points Robert Upton (New Hampshire, 1954): lost to U.S. Representative Norris Cotton by 8.2 points Maurice Murphy (New Hampshire, 1962): lost to U.S. Representative Perkins Bass by 6.9 points Sheila Frahm (Kansas, 1996): lost to U.S. Representative Sam Brownback by 13.1 points Overall, there have been far fewer appointed U.S. Senators in recent decades, due in part to fewer members of the chamber dying in office to create an automatic vacancy in the first instance. During the first half-century of the direct election era, a total of 124 senators died in office including three or more members 23 times: in 1916, 1917, 1918, 1923, 1924, 1925, 1926, 1928, 1929, 1932, 1933, 1935, 1936, 1940, 1941, 1944, 1945, 1946, 1949, 1951, 1953, 1954, and 1962. Since 1964, only 53 senators passed away while in office with at least three dying in a calendar year just once (Democrats Lee Metcalf of Montana, Hubert Humphrey of Minnesota, and James Allen of Alabama in 1978). The 50+ month gap since the last death in the U.S. Senate (New Jersey Democrat Frank Lautenberg in June 2013) is the fourth longest stretch without such a vacancy in 200 years. ___ Dr. Eric Ostermeier is the author of Smart Politics from the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey School of Public Affairs and Center for the Study of Politics and Governance (CSPG).
Embattled Mo Brooks hit with new ethics complaint
Rep. Mo Brooks can now stop telling Alabama voters he “never” received an ethics complaint. On Monday, an Alabama man filed a federal grievance against the congressman and Senate candidate accusing him of improperly using congressional resources both in a campaign ad and on social media. NTKnetwork.com reports insurance agent Joe Fuller filed the complaint against Brooks, locked in a heated race for the second-place spot in the primary Tuesday for Alabama’s Senate seat. In a recent campaign ad — “To the president” — Brooks chides President Donald Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell for supporting his Republican opponent, sitting Sen. Luther Strange. Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC linked to McConnell, has solidly backed Strange with millions of dollars in advertising. Brooks, Strange and former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore have been battling for the top spots in the 9-person primary to decide who could serve the rest of Attorney General Jeff Sessions’ Senate term. A Cygnal/L2 poll released Thursday suggests the race will go to a runoff Sept. 26 between two top vote-getters, since it is unlikely one will take a majority of the vote. In the survey of likely Republican voters, Moore leads the field with 31 percent compared to Strange‘s 23 percent. Brooks, the only other candidate with a chance of making a runoff, follows with 18 percent. Last week, Trump formally endorsed Strange on Twitter, which led to a quick condemnation from Brooks, who had been pushing himself as a pro-Trump candidate. Both in the ad and on Twitter, Brooks asked Trump to reconsider his endorsement. “McConnell and Strange are weak, but together, we can be strong,” Brooks said in the spot, before asking: “Mr. President, isn’t it time we tell McConnell and Strange: ‘You’re fired?’” It was a nod to Trump’s famous catchphrase used in “The Apprentice.” As Fuller’s complaint noted, the ad shows Brooks wearing his congressional pin — an apparent violation of House ethics rules. As the House Ethics Manual states: “Official resources of the House must, as a general rule, be used for the performance of official business of the House, and hence those resources may not be used for campaign or political purposes.” Fuller’s complaint also alleges that Brooks violated 18 U.S. Code § 713, prohibiting a Member of Congress photo from being used on a social media campaign page. Brooks official photo is on his Facebook page. According to 18 U.S. Code § 713: “Whoever knowingly displays any printed or other likenesses of the great seal of the United States … or the seal of the United States House of Representatives, or the seal of the United States Congress … for the purpose of conveying, or in a manner reasonably calculated to convey, a false impression of sponsorship or approval by the Government of the United States or by any department, agency or instrumentality thereof, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than six months, or both.” Brooks continues to insist he has never received a single ethics complaint — an interesting claim considering several questionable ethical lapses as Madison County district attorney in the 1990s. Nevertheless, in a campaign appearance Monday with the Republican Women of Birmingham, Brooks had a slightly different take. The video was streamed on Facebook Live and is also available on Brooks Senate campaign page. At about nine-and-a-half minutes, the video shows Brooks telling the audience that due to “limited resources,” his wife, Martha, handles complaints, ethical concerns, and federal elections Commission issues for his office. Brooks’ comment raises a question: Why would he need someone to handle ethics accusations — especially his own wife — if Brooks never gets any complaints in the first place?
New polling gives Roy Moore 8-point lead in Senate primary, leading runoff
Former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore is opening a lead in the Alabama U.S. Senate Republican primary, and is the favorite in a potential runoff. The Hill is reporting on a Cygnal/L2 poll released Thursday, ahead of next week’s primary, suggests the race will go to a runoff between the top two vote-getters without one getting a majority of the vote. This makes second place crucial. Moore leads the field with 31 percent compared to sitting Sen. Luther Strange‘s 23 percent. Huntsville Republican Congressman Mo Brooks, the only other candidate with a chance of making the runoff, follows with 18 percent. Strange’s lead over Brooks is just outside the +/- 4.4 percent margin of error. Cygnal/L2 polled 502 likely Alabama Republican primary voters. These numbers indicate a three-way race for who will serve the rest of Attorney General Jeff Sessions’ term. As Alabama’s former Attorney General, Strange was appointed to the seat in February by then-Gov. Robert Bentley, until the state holds a special election in December. With a state as red as Alabama, the primary winner is likely to take the seat. “I expect Moore and Strange in the runoff election, but Strange hasn’t locked down the second spot yet,” Cygnal’s president Brent Buchanan said in a polling statement. “It will be interesting to see if President Trump’s endorsement of Senator Strange increases voter turnout, which should favor Strange according to our survey results.” With the runoff, polling found Moore would lead Strange 45 to 34 percent in a hypothetical matchup. The survey did not include Brooks. Brooks’s favorability rating is also underwater, with 39 percent of likely Republican primary voters view him favorably, and 46 percent saw him unfavorably. Strange’s favorable numbers are +4 points, 46 to 42 percent. Moore sits best, with a 56 percent positive rating. Unless one of the candidates can secure a 50 percent plus one majority of the vote in Tuesday’s primary, Alabama voters will have to decide between the top two vote-getters in a Sept. 26 runoff. The general election is Dec. 12.
Luther Strange rolls out new ads touting Donald Trump endorsement
As the clock winds down on Alabama’s Republican U.S. Senate primary, sitting Sen. Luther Strange’s campaign rolled out a late ad campaign touting President Donald Trump‘s Twitter endorsement. POLITICO reports the ads launched Thursday morning, only days before the special Senate primary to decide who will complete Attorney General Jeff Sessions’ Senate term. “President Trump says Luther Strange is the best conservative to pass our agenda,” says the narrator in “Trump Man,” Strange’s new 30-second spot as Trump’s tweet is shown in the background. “Tweeting, ‘Luther Strange has done a great job representing the great people of the great state of Alabama. He has my complete and total endorsement!’” An accompanying radio ad focuses on Mo Brooks, one of Strange’s leading primary rivals. “Brooks keeps attacking our president,” says the radio narrator, playing a clip of Brooks saying: “I don’t think you can trust Donald Trump with anything he says.” Strange and Brooks have been trading digs in the heated midsummer 9-person primary battle, which includes former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore. Recent polling gives Moore a slight 31-29 lead over Strange – a statistical tie within the margin of error. The same poll showed Brooks with 18 percent support, followed by state Sen. Trip Pittman with 8 percent and Alabama Christian Coalition president Randy Brinson with 2 percent. Eleven percent were undecided. Other Republican candidates include Dr. James Beretta, Joseph Breault, Mary Maxwell and Bryan Peeples. As for Democrats, polling gives Robert Kennedy, Jr. a lead in the 7-person field with 49 percent; former U.S. Attorney Doug Jones had 28 percent. The remaining field took only single digits. Unless one of the candidates can secure a 50 percent plus one majority of the vote in the Aug. 15 primary, Alabama voters will have to decide between the top two vote-getters in a Sept. 26 runoff. The general election is Dec. 12.
Mo Brooks’ history of questionable ethics as Madison County DA
When Hoover Republican Dom Gentile dropped out of Alabama’s U.S. Senate primary, he promptly endorsed Rep. Mo Brooks. “It’s very rare to have a politician who is very smart, who is selfless and who does the right things,” Gentile said in July. “A good man, a family man, who’s never had an ethics complaint.” A slightly deeper dive into the past of the man who wants to be Alabama’s U.S. Senator proves maybe Gentile should have never said “never.” As with many things with Brooks, the truth – particularly about ethics — is not so cut-and-dry. In October 1992, the Huntsville Times wrote a series of pieces profiling Brooks, who was serving as Madison County district attorney at the time. Mostly written by reporter John Anderson, the Times series suggests there were several instances of questionable ethics by Brooks, including choosing jurors based on ZIP codes, pressuring colleagues for support, rainy day funds and mixing politics with his job. “Fairly or unfairly, Brooks began the district attorney’s job with a reputation as a political animal — a reputation he’s yet to live down,” Anderson wrote. “One story making the rounds at the Courthouse has it that Brooks, while trying a drug case … chose jurors based in part on their ZIP codes with the expectation that jurors from his former House district would help him win a conviction. “ During the same period, Linda Coats, Brooks’ former assistant DA, had accused Brooks of demanding “that his staff take sides in his [District Attorney] race.” “He would say that the office is divided into `Mo-ites’ and `Morganites’ [referring to Democratic opponent Tom Morgan]. He told me I was a `Mo-ite’” Coats told the Times. “He said that people who stand in the middle of the road and remain neutral are going to get hit by both sides.’” Coats originally supported Brooks – who quickly earned a reputation for playing “hard ball” — but soon became resentful of attempts to ‘manipulate’ her into supporting him, feeling that she would not have a job if he did not win the general election. Brooks chalked Coates’ claims to her being miserable “because she had no friends in the D.A.’s office.” Nevertheless, both Coats and another assistant DA, William Davis Lawley Jr., resigned in Sept. 1992, saying they could “no longer work for Brooks.” In leaving, Lawley noted that he “didn’t like the priorities down there.” By then, however, more stories of dubious ethics were coming out of the office of the man who would later serve four terms in the U.S. House: Mixing politics with work through tactics such as handing out campaign literature to grand jurors during in proceedings. One grand jury member, who asked not to be identified, told the Times that Brooks’ campaigning among grand jurors “leans toward the unethical because we were there to work. He had a captive audience and I think that was unfair.’” In 1992, Brooks would indeed lose that first bid for Madison County district attorney (he was appointed in 1991) to Morgan. But before his successor could take office, the Huntsville Times learned that Brooks offered each of his attorneys and two other state employees a parting gift: A $3,000 raise just before Christmas. When Huntsville Times reporter Patricia Dedrick asked Brooks if the raises were a “final jab” at Morgan, he replied: “Oh, Lord, no.” But Dedrick also wrote: “Morgan is ‘going to have so much money he’s going to have a hard time spending it,’ [Brooks] said. Money for the raises, which amounts to $51,000 a year, will come in part from an office ‘rainy day’ fund totaling more than $200,000.” In addition, Morgan noted that such raises were certainly not typical: “I have never gotten $3,000, I don’t think anybody ever got that kind of raise. $1,500 and $2,000 is the most anybody has ever gotten.” While these episodes may be buried in the past — pressuring colleagues, offering big raises, mixing work and politics – they still raise just enough questions for someone seeking to be Alabama’s next U.S. Senator.
Mo Brooks’ long career of slamming Alabama taxpayers with increases, fees
Senate candidate Mo Brooks wants to be seen as a “proven conservative,” especially on fiscal matters. But actual proof suggests the opposite. On his 2010 congressional campaign website, the Huntsville Republican makes an audacious claim: to have “vigorously fought tax increases as an Alabama legislator, a Madison County Commissioner, and a citizen.” Brooks even goes as far as to link to a pair of signed pledges: Taxpayers Protection Pledge — Americans for Tax Reform and the No Climate Tax Pledge — Americans for Prosperity, both promoting strict anti-tax promises. In his Senate campaign, Brooks continues to carry the fiscal responsibility banner, railing against Congress’ attempts to change the Affordable Care Act by calling it a “Republican Welfare Program.” And Brooks tells Alabama Today he is running “because America needs an ethical, principled conservative who has the intellect and backbone to face and defeat America’s challenges.” As he faces an uphill climb in Alabama’s Aug. 15 GOP primary — solidly third in most recent polling — Brooks’ boasts recall the old saying: “”The best predictor of future behavior is … Past behavior.” With that in mind, a closer examination of his Alabama voting record — particularly on the county and state levels — shows his anti-tax rhetoric does not tell the complete story. For more than a decade, Brooks represented District 5 of the Madison County Commission, from 2000 to 2011, before winning the first of four terms in the U.S. House. During that time, the Huntsville Republican amassed a considerable history of supporting tax and fee increases on local constituents, a record that seems to contradict later campaign promises and his membership in the House Freedom Caucus, a group that emerged from the 2008-2010 Tea Party wave. Tea Party, for those who may have forgotten, stands for “Taxed Enough Already,” a grassroots movement set up under the principle of fiscal responsibility and actively resisting government taxation in most forms. In his time in public service — in the Madison County Commission, and before that, an earlier stint in the Alabama House — Brooks “represented” Alabama taxpayers by way of several (successful and attempted) tax and fee raises. Prominent examples include September 1997, when, as Madison County Commission water department liaison, Brooks supported a $6.50 monthly per-household increase in the county’s water rate, something Huntsville Times business reporter Mike Salinero questioned in “Who Will Pay for Soaring Water Use in Thirsty County?” Later, as a Madison County commissioner, Brooks approved a 2006 Tax Increment Financing (TIF) measure that would borrow money to fund construction projects, which, the Huntsville Times reported at the time, would have to be paid with “anticipated increased property taxes.” Also in 2006, Commissioner Brooks voted to raise property taxes, followed by another proposal to raise property taxes and other tax increases just one year later. He did the same thing in 2008, again calling for increased property taxes. The following year, the Huntsville Times strongly criticized a Brooks’ proposal — one that would blanch a present-day fiscal conservative. This time, Brooks again argued that the “only way” to pay for needed school construction was through higher property taxes. As an alternative, Brooks offered several possibilities for raising revenue in Madison County — all of them distasteful to anti-tax proponents: increases in property and sales taxes, as well as a state measure to lift caps on the amount of property tax levied for Madison County schools. Madison County Board Member John Ehinger panned Brooks’ tax-and-spend pitch, writing in a March 2007 Huntsville Times op-ed that while they “are real enough … none of them is workable.” “If local schools need more money to build and renovate facilities, is there an alternative to the proposed half-cent countywide sales tax?” Ehinger wrote. “Well, it depends. Solutions to problems generally fall into two categories: the theoretical and the practical. Theoretical solutions might do a better job in some instances, provided you can put them in place. The theoretical solutions to the financial needs of the three local school systems, some of which were outlined last week by County Commissioner Mo Brooks, are real enough, but none of them is workable.” Finally, in 2009, Brooks wanted folks to pay more in garbage fees, voting for a $13.50-a-month garbage fee increase in Madison County. Nevertheless, this laundry list of Brooks’ tax-happiness goes even further back, including his days in the Alabama House, where he served from 1982-92 — often landing on the same side as Democrat George Wallace, who served his final term as Alabama Governor from 1983-87. Most notably, Brooks tried to seek voter approval for increasing income taxes on Alabama families and businesses (by as much as 20 percent) during the House Regular Sessions in 1983, 1984, 1987 and 1988. In those days, Brooks championed a wide range of tax and fee increases, everything from annual fees on natural gas meters, a liquor tax hike, a “tax crackdown” bill, privilege taxes on dog racing, allowing city and county school boards to levy sales taxes, a gasohol tax hike, raising hunting and fishing fees, and raising cigarette taxes. In 1983, the Alabama House passed a bill that to levy a “50-cent annual fee on every natural gas meter in the state,” as reported by The Associated Press’ Phillip Rawls in “House OKs Gas Meter Fees.” That same Session, lawmakers passed a bill sending “additional mark ups’” (taxing, just by another name) on liquor to Alabama’s General Fund — something that observers at the time believed would raise liquor prices across the board. Alabama’s “Journal of The House” shows Brooks voting “Yea.” Brooks also voted for a Gov. Wallace’s “Tax Crackdown” measure, aggressively going after delinquent Alabama Taxpayers. H 13, considered during the state’s Fourth Extraordinary Session that year, was titled: “Increase Revenue and Promote Compliance with The Tax Laws by Providing the Means for A More Effective And Efficient Enforcement Of Said Tax Laws.” Records show that Brooks voted for both the House and conference versions of the crackdown bill. In 1984,
Mo Brooks to quit Senate race? Only if Jeff Sessions is reinstated
On Wednesday, U.S. Senate candidate Mo Brooks offered to quit the race. However, there’s a catch: Alabama must reinstate Jeff Sessions to his old seat. Brooks, the Huntsville Republican running for the seat now held by Luther Strange, is refusing to stay silent over the “public waterboarding” of Sessions, who stepped down as a senator to become Donald Trump’s Attorney General. Brooks is facing a contentious GOP primary Aug. 15 as part of a 10-person field that includes Strange and former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore. Over the past week, Trump has openly questioned his attorney general’s judgment — particularly over his recusal over investigating Russian meddling in the 2016 election. Trump told reporters he would have never of hired Sessions in the first place had the president had known Sessions would recuse himself soon after accepting the post. “President Trump should raise his reservations with Attorney General Sessions privately, man to man, one-on-one, not publicly scorn a great man like this,” Brooks said in a statement Wednesday. Calling Sessions “one of the greatest people Alabama has ever produced,” Brooks believes it is “okay” if Trump wants a new Attorney General, suggesting a “win-win” scenario for both Trump and Sessions. “I offer to withdraw completely from the race for Senate if my other GOP opponents in this race will concur on the terms and conditions set forth in the accompanying ‘Resolution Reinstating Jeff Sessions as United States Senator,’” with a link to his campaign website. “If all Republican candidates collectively agree to simultaneously withdraw from this race,” he continued, “then we clear the way for the Republican Party of Alabama to nominate Jeff Sessions to be the Republican nominee for the Dec. 12, 2017, general election.” Brooks added that Sessions can then “return to the Senate where he has served us so well. President can then appoint whomever he wants as Attorney General.” Whether that will happen is yet to be determined. Nevertheless, for Alabama voters, the last day to apply for an absentee ballot in the special election is Aug. 10. If there is no primary winner — with 50 percent plus one — a runoff will be Sept. 26; the general election is Dec. 12. Brooks full statement is below: I make the following statement without prior discussion with Attorney General Jeff Sessions. I do so because I do not want to put him into a potentially difficult position. I have known Jeff Sessions since 1994. He is a good friend, a former boss who appointed me to be a Special Assistant Attorney General, one of Alabama’s finest sons, and a great man who has served Alabama capably and honorably as a Senator and Attorney General (both for America and Alabama). In my opinion, the two greatest public servants I have ever personally met and looked up to are President Ronald Reagan and Attorney General Jeff Sessions. I was honored to receive Sessions’ endorsement the first time I ran for Congress in 2010. I have admired his courageous stands on immigration, the deficit and debt, on trade agreements, and his commitment to our America First agenda. He is a patriot who cares deeply about his country and the rule of law. I cannot remain silent about the treatment Jeff Sessions is receiving from President Trump. If the president has reservations about Attorney General Jeff Sessions, that is okay. No two people agree all the time. But President Trump should raise his reservations with Attorney General Sessions privately, man to man, one-on-one, not publicly scorn a great man like this. I support President Trump’s policies, but this public waterboarding of one of the greatest people Alabama has ever produced is inappropriate and insulting to the people of Alabama who know Jeff Sessions so well and elected him so often by overwhelming margins. With that said, If President Trump wants a new Attorney General, he has that right. That is why today I am making the people of Alabama a “win-win” promise: a “win” for President Trump and a “win” for Jeff Sessions. I offer to withdraw completely from the race for Senate if my other GOP opponents in this race will concur on the terms and conditions set forth in the accompanying “Resolution Reinstating Jeff Sessions as United States Senator.” If all Republican candidates collectively agree to simultaneously withdraw from this race, then we clear the way for the Republican Party of Alabama to nominate Jeff Sessions to be the Republican nominee for the Dec. 12, 2017 general election. He can return to the Senate where he has served us so well. President can then appoint whomever he wants as Attorney General. An added benefit is that if Jeff Sessions returns to the U.S. Senate, he re-enters the Senate with 20 years of seniority. That puts him in a compelling position to obtain key committee assignments and chairmanships, thereby empowering Jeff Sessions to best promote and protect the interests of Alabama and America … a Seniority power and ability none of the current candidates can match until 2037 at the earliest. I have signed this resolution, and I call on my opponents, Luther Strange, Roy Moore, and the rest of the field to join me. I recognize that President Trump is popular in Alabama. My closest friends and political advisers have told me to not side with Jeff Sessions, that it will cost me politically to do so. My response is simple: I don’t care. If this costs me politically, that’s fine but I am going to the right thing for Alabama and America. I stand with Jeff Sessions.
Steve Flowers: Lay of the land as Senate race enters stretch
As the horse race for our open U.S. Senate seat heads down the stretch, let’s look at the lay of the land. All indications are that Roy Moore and Luther Strange are headed for a one-two finish Aug. 15 and ultimately a runoff Sept. 26. The winner of that match will be our junior U. S. Senator for the next three years of the Jeff Sessions’ seat term. The short window for the campaign helps Moore and Strange. They both have name identification and have run several successful campaigns for significant statewide offices Moore has worked the rural areas of the state quietly without much money. Luther Strange has bought heavy TV time in the Birmingham media market hoping to turn out upscale suburban Republicans. A combination of polls as we head around the curve and into the last leg of the race has Moore at 30, Strange at 28 and Mo Brooks at 18. The caveat to remember is that turnout is critical. Moore’s 30 percent will show up. Therefore, his final vote tally Aug. 15 could be higher than 30. A poll is a picture of the entire electorate. The poll that actually counts is the poll Aug. 15 and it is comprised of those that showed up to cast their ballot. Congressman Mo Brooks has the best chance to upset one of the two frontrunners. He represents the vote rich Tennessee Valley in Congress. He is the only viable candidate from that neck of the woods. He is a member of the right-wing Freedom Caucus in Congress. If that ultra conservative group has a grassroots fundraising organization and they raise Mo some money, he could surprise and overcome Luther. There are two descriptions I like to use when assessing a U.S. Senator and the script they seek as your senator. Sen. Richard Shelby is the ultimate caretaker. He has proven to be the greatest U.S. Senator in Alabama history. Over the past 30 years, he has brought home the bacon. He has also voted conservatively. In fact, if you compare the voting records of Shelby and Sessions they would be identical. However, Jeff Sessions would be categorized as an ideologue. He was an ultra-conservative during his tenure in the Senate and was considered one of the upper bodies’ most arch right-wing reactionaries. Therefore, would Roy Moore or Mo Brooks or Luther Strange be considered a caretaker or an ideologue? Brooks has already proven to be an ideologue as a congressman. There is no question but that Moore would be the ultimate ideologue. He would arrive in Washington and by national standards would be the caricature that the Democratic Party would use as the poster boy that depicts how far right the Republican Party is today. It would be Moore’s mission to be perceived as the most ideologically religious zealot on the scene. Alabama would be known for having the most religious right-wing senator in the nation. The national Democrats would use Moore’s picture in every ad in every California race the same way Obama was used in Alabama. Strange would be in the mold of Sen. Shelby as a caretaker. Shelby would mentor Luther, who is more of a mainstream conservative. Strange, Moore or Brooks would all vote conservatively right down the line. They would have the identical voting record as Sessions or Shelby on all the litmus test GOP issues like abortion, immigration, balanced budget, pro-military, pro-gun, pro-agriculture and most importantly the appointment and confirmation of conservative Supreme Court Justices. However, without question, Strange would be a much more effective U.S. Senator for Alabama than Moore or Brooks. He would be more of the type Senator that we have in Shelby. We have had some greats like Shelby, Lister Hill, John Sparkman and John Bankhead. Alabama would be better served to have a conservative caretaker in Washington than a reactionary right-wing ideologue. However, Alabamians may prefer having a missionary in Washington rather than a visionary – at least those who show up to vote Aug. 15. See you next week. ___ Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state Legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
Luther Strange mailer blasts Mo Brooks on Trump as Senate primary approaches
About six weeks away from the special primary for Alabama’s U.S. Senate seat, the battle is escalating between Incumbent Sen. Luther Strange and Congressman Mo Brooks, one of his top Republican opponents. A new mailer, paid for by the Strange for Senate committee, blasts Brooks for not supporting then-candidate Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential primary, as well as his criticism after Trump won the nomination. Brooks, Strange and former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore are the three leaders in a crowded GOP primary, with a (likely) September runoff, unless a single candidate gets 50 percent plus one in August. As reported by POLITICO, Strange’s mailer quotes Brooks as saying on MSNBC in February: “Trump voters are going to regret their votes.” After Trump won the nomination in May, Brooks told the Montgomery Advertiser: “Voters sure are facing some tough choices in November, aren’t they?” (He later admitted he would vote for Trump in November.)” The mailer proclaimed that “Luther Strange strongly supported our President from Day 1,” adding, “this was never a ‘tough choice’ for Luther Strange.” Appointed to the Senate in February by then-Governor Robert Bentley, Strange is facing a crowded 10-person field for the Aug. 15 Republican primary. A primary runoff, if necessary, will be Sept. 26; a general election is Dec. 12.
Mo Brooks tops in Huntsville straw poll, Luther Strange at bottom
Alabama Congressman Mo Brooks came out on top in a straw poll of U.S. Senate candidates at a candidate forum Monday in his hometown of Huntsville. AL.com reports that nine candidates took part in the event organized by the Christian Citizen Task Force, with a bipartisan audience of about 300 people. Out of 200 votes cast for Republicans, Brooks took first with 101 votes. Former state Supreme Chief Justice Roy Moore came in second with 74 votes; state Sen. Trip Pittman of Montrose received eight votes. Incumbent Republican Sen. Luther Strange — who did not attend the event — tied for sixth with only three votes. Three Republicans — James Beretta, Joseph Breault and Dom Gentile — received no votes. Democrats cast about 40 votes; leading the count was Brian McGee, who took 19 votes. According to AL.com, the candidates attending the forum were Democrats Will Boyd, Vann Caldwell and McGee; Republicans Randy Brinson, Brooks, Mary Maxwell, Moore, Bryan Peeples and Pittman. Appointed to the Senate in February by then-Governor Robert Bentley, Strange is facing a crowded 10-person field for the Aug. 15 Republican primary. A primary runoff, if necessary, will be Sept. 26, with a general election Dec. 12.
With little fanfare, internal polling gives Roy Moore lead in U.S. Senate race
Sometimes, the most money (or pull) does not guarantee a candidate a polling lead. While incumbent Sen. Luther Strange has financial and institutional support, and U.S. Rep. Mo Brooks gathering congressional backing, it is former Alabama Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore leading in the GOP primary for Strange’s Senate seat. As Daniel Strauss of POLITICO reports, Brooks’ internal polling is showing the firebrand ex-judge – who was suspended from the state Supreme Court over his refusal to honor the federal same-sex marriage ruling – leading the Republican primary field of nearly a dozen candidates with 31 percent. Strange is next at 23 percent, with Brooks at 21 percent; other candidates grouped below the 5 percent threshold. Moore has received less attention than his Washington-centric opponents for the Aug. 15 primary for Attorney General Jeff Sessions‘ old Senate seat. “But he could be an unusually strong obstacle for Strange in an age of unsettled Republican primaries,” Strauss writes. “Moore is hoping his years of high-profile religious fights on the Alabama Supreme Court will fuel his run more than a high-budget campaign would have.”
Steve Flowers: 2018 elections will be one for record books
The much-anticipated 2018 election contests have been pushed back by about three months due to the unanticipated race for Jeff Sessions’ Senate seat. This ongoing contest will occupy the news through late September. It was previously thought that June 6 would be the opening bell since fundraising for next year’s June 5 Primary could begin at that time. However, the bell will probably commence chiming in full force by Labor Day. It will be a year for the record books. The ballot will be so long that it will take most folks 15 minutes to vote. We will have an open governor’s race with at least six to nine viable candidates. That same number of folks will be in the open Lt. Governor’s race. You will have a hotly contested open race for Attorney General. There will be five seats up for election on the state Supreme Court. There will be a fight among two sitting Justices, Tom Parker and Lyn Stuart, for Chief Justice, all Probate Judges, and many Circuit and District Court Judges in the State will be running as well as all 67 Sheriffs. However, the most money will be spent on the 35 State Senate races and 105 State House seats. In recent years, special interest money in Montgomery has gravitated more than ever to legislative races. The 2018 legislative money raising could begin June 6, but the jockeying and final decision-making will be delayed by not only the U.S. Senate race. There is also a large cloud of uncertainty as to how the districts will look when all is said and done by the federal courts. In January a three-judge federal panel struck down the current district maps drawn in 2012. The three federal judges were following precedent sent down from the U.S. Supreme Court. Alabama Democrats led by the Alabama Democratic Conference and the Black Legislative Conference prevailed in what appeared to be a “Hail Mary” suit. They won at the U. S. Supreme Court level. The high tribunal’s decision said that the Alabama Republican legislature had intentionally moved Black voters who overwhelmingly vote Democratic into loaded majority-minority districts that made it difficult to form alliances with like-minded white voters. This new theory embraced by the courts advised that it muted minority voices in the political process. The court is right about that. Democratic Senators and Representatives have been run over repeatedly over the last six years by the Republican majority. They have treated them with irrelevance and irreverence. The courts told the legislature to fix the lines to suit the Court order. The Republicans ignored the Court and ran over the Democrats again in the regular session. All of the black Democrats voted against the plan. The most contentious issue was over local politics. The Republicans’ maps gave Republicans a one-seat advantage in the House and Senate delegations in Jefferson County. They brought in GOP legislators who live in the suburbs surrounding Birmingham to give them a majority in the demographically Democratic County. The Courts were essentially ignored in favor of politics. The GOP supermajority continued to use the whip handle with the Democrats. However, they are not holding the cards in this poker game. When the Court hears the case in September, the GOP plan will be discarded. The court may wind up drawing the new districts that legislators run under in 2018. The last time the courts drew the lines was in 1983. In that case, the judges sent the demographics and judicial requirements to cartography experts in New York and they fed them into a computer. The Court ordered computer drawn districts that had no regard for county line boundaries or political enclaves, much less protecting incumbents. Several GOP legislators may wake up one morning in October and see that the Courts have put them in the same districts. Therefore, most lobbyists and special interests are keeping their powder dry. They will probably not be doling out large legislative donations until qualifying time around the first of the year. The most hotly contested state Senate race will be for the Dick Brewbaker seat in the Montgomery River Region. Brewbaker is not running for re-election. Most insiders expect Senator Harri Ann Smith to retire from her Houston/Geneva Wiregrass seat. Regardless, popular Dothan mayor, Mike Schmitz, is not running for a third term as mayor and is expected to run for that State Senate seat. We will see. See you next week. ___ Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state Legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
