West works to deepen sanctions after Vladimir Putin heightens threats
How do American leaders and their allies intend to respond if President Vladimir Putin seeks to escalate his way out of a bad situation on Ukraine’s battlefields and makes good on renewed threats of annexing territory or even using nuclear weapons? At least to start with, by trying to double down on the same tactics that have helped put Russia in a corner in Ukraine, U.S. and European leaders have made clear: more financial penalties and international isolation for Russia, more arms, and other backing for Ukraine. That won’t necessarily be easy. It’s been tough enough staying the current course of persuading all of dozens of allies to stick with sanctions and isolation for Putin and persuading more ambivalent countries to join in. Global financial and energy disruptions from Russia’s war in Ukraine already promise to make the coming winter a tough one for countries that have depended on Russia for their energy needs. And there’s no sign of U.S. or NATO officials matching Putin’s renewed nuclear threats with the same nuclear bluster, which in itself might raise the risks of escalating the conflict to an unimaginable level. Even if Putin should act on his nuclear threat, President Joe Biden and others point, without details, to an ascending scale of carefully calibrated responses based on how far Russia goes. To start with, “they’ll become more of a pariah in the world than they ever have been,” Biden told CBS’ “60 Minutes” just before Putin’s new wartime measures and renewed nuclear threat. “What they do will determine what response would occur,” Biden said on the nuclear side, adding that the U.S. responses, in that case, would be “consequential.” “I do not believe the United States would take an escalatory step” in the event of a one-off, limited nuclear detonation by Russia aimed at trying to scare Ukraine and its supporters off, said Rose Gottemoeller, former deputy NATO secretary-general and former U.S. undersecretary of state for arms control. “Certainly, it would not respond with nuclear weapons.” Putin this week pledged to use “all available means” to stave off any challenges as Russia moves to summarily claim more Ukrainian territory despite heavy losses on the battlefield to NATO-armed Ukrainian forces. In case NATO missed the point, another senior Russian political figure specified the next day that included nuclear weapons. Putin also mobilized Russian fighters to throw into the seven-month invasion of Ukraine and announced votes in parts of Ukraine that the West says are meant to provide political cover for illegally absorbing those regions into Russia. U.S. and European Union officials say new sanctions are in the works in response to Putin’s latest moves. “Russia, its political leadership, and all those involved in organizing these ‘referenda’ as well as in other violations of international law and international humanitarian law in Ukraine will be held accountable,” E.U. foreign policy chief Josep Borrell pledged this week on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York. But political declarations are the easy part. It’s unclear what type of measures can be agreed upon, as the financial punishments against Russia are also increasingly inflicting pain on other European economies weighed down by high electricity and natural gas prices and spiraling inflation. Hungary has led resistance to sanctions that might hit supplies from Russia, but it isn’t alone in hesitating. New sanctions may come only after much debate and hand-wringing among the 27 E.U. member countries in the coming weeks, probably only after Russia has held its referendums. The last round of sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was announced on May 4 but only agreed on four weeks later, as concerns over oil divided member countries. Rather than a new set of sanctions, a “maintenance and alignment” package was sealed in July, mostly to close loopholes on measures already agreed upon. Pressed by reporters in New York for details about what might be coming, Borrell said the sanctions would target “new areas of the Russian economy, especially — if I can be a little more concrete — the technological ones.” ADVERTISEMENT Ursula von der Leyen, who heads the E.U.’s executive branch — the European Commission — which has been responsible for drawing up most of the sanctions, also appeared resolute, but she was hardly more forthcoming. “We stand ready to impose further economic costs on Russia and on individuals and entities inside and outside of Russia who support (the war), politically or economically. Plus, we will propose additional export controls on civilian technology as Russia moves to a full war economy,” she told CNN. Beyond the economic sanctions, the E.U., since Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine, has slapped asset freezes and travel bans on more than 1,200 Russians, including Putin, Russia’s foreign minister, and other senior officials. Militarily, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said this month that NATO is working with the defense industry to explore ways to boost arms production to better meet Ukraine’s needs and replenish the arsenals of allies who have been providing weapons and defense systems. “We saw that during the COVID crisis, the industry was able to ramp up production of vaccines, and now we need to have, to some extent, the same approach: ramp up quickly production of weapons and ammunition,” he told The Associated Press. The U.S., as a matter of policy maintains ambiguity about how it would respond to any use of nuclear weapons in the conflict. Such a use would return the world to nuclear war for the first time since the U.S. dropped bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, and risk escalation on a scale the world has never seen. But U.S. officials’ public comments on the matter this month are in line with expectations from arms experts that Washington’s response would be a graduated one based on the gravity of Russia’s nuclear use. A one-off and comparatively limited Russian nuclear use would deepen Russia’s isolation internationally, but might not necessarily draw an immediate Western nuclear use in kind. It’s difficult to fathom Putin launching any central strategic nuclear strike at
U.S. hits Russia with ‘war crimes’ sanctions, Europe following
The U.S. rolled out a new wave of financial sanctions on Wednesday against Russia that President Joe Biden said would place a lasting penalty on the country’s economy. The United Kingdom quickly followed suit, and more pain was coming from the European Union as the allies pressed forward with an escalating campaign to tighten the economic screws on Russian President Vladimir Putin for “war crimes” in Ukraine. Making it personal, the U.S. sanctions singled out the Putin’s family, targeting his two adult daughters in addition to blocking two key Russian banks. Biden said that “Russia has already failed in its initial war” after the country’s forces were turned back from the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. He cautioned, however, that “this fight is far from over.” “This war could continue for a long time,” but the United States will continue to stand with Ukraine and Ukrainians in the fight for freedom, Biden said. “We’re going to stifle Russia’s ability to grow for years to come.” The latest sanctions underscore the financial pain that Russia faces, as evidence that its troops killed Ukrainian civilians has led to ever-harsher penalties by the U.S. and its Western allies that are eroding Putin’s ability to fight. While rounds of increased sanctions have not forced Putin out of the war, they have put Russia in increasingly desperate economic circumstances as Ukrainian forces withstand his barrages. Key to the effectiveness of the sanctions has been the unity between the U.S. and European nations. And the atrocities revealed in Ukraine have intensified pressure on Germany and other countries to go further and join the U.S. and Lithuania in blocking all Russian energy exports. The U.K. piled on Wednesday with asset freezes against major banks, a ban on British investment in Russia and a pledge to end dependency on Russian coal and oil by yearend. The European Union was also expected to soon take additional steps, including a ban on new investment in Russia and an embargo on coal, after the recent evidence of atrocities emerging in the wake of the retreat by Russian forces from the town of Bucha. The U.S. acted against two of Russia’s largest banks, Sberbank and Alfa Bank, prohibiting assets from going through the U.S. financial system and barring Americans from doing business with those two institutions. In addition to sanctions aimed at Putin’s adult daughters, Mariya Putina and Katerina Tikhonova, the U.S. is targeting Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin; the wife and children of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov; and members of Russia’s Security Council, including Dmitry Medvedev, a former president and prime minister. The penalties cut off all of Putin’s close family members from the U.S. financial system and freeze any assets they hold in the United States. Biden was expected to sign an executive order that would ban new investment in Russia by Americans no matter where they are living. The U.S. Treasury Department was preparing more sanctions against Russian state-owned enterprises, according to the White House. Britain announced asset freezes targeting Sberbank and the Credit Bank of Moscow and designated eight Russian oligarchs whom it says Putin “uses to prop up his war economy.” “Together with our allies, we are showing the Russian elite that they cannot wash their hands of the atrocities committed on Putin’s orders,” British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said. Britain had already announced a plan to phase out Russian oil, which accounts for 8% of the U.K. supply. Russia is the top supplier of imported coal to the U.K., though British demand for the polluting fuel has plummeted in the past decade. Britain has not ended imports of Russian natural gas, which accounts for 4% of its supply, saying only that it will do so “as soon as possible.” Videos and images of bodies in the streets of Bucha after it was recaptured from Russian forces have unleashed a wave of indignation among Western allies, who have drawn up new sanctions as a response. The European Commission’s proposed ban on coal imports would be the first EU sanctions targeting Russia’s lucrative energy industry over its war in Ukraine. EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell said energy was key to Putin’s war coffers. And because the war has pushed prices higher, Russia has benefitted from being able to sell its natural gas and oil to the rest of the world. “A billion euro is what we pay Putin every day for the energy he provides us since the beginning of the war. We have given him 35 billion euro. Compare that to the one billion that we have given to the Ukraine in arms and weapons,” Borrell said. The steady intensifying of sanctions is less a sign of their shortcomings than the building pressure against Russia as it seeks foreign investment and basic goods, Brian Deese, director of the White House National Economic Council, told reporters at a Wednesday breakfast. “We need to have patience and perspective when it comes to the impacts on Russia of this unprecedented and crippling sanctions regime,” Deese said at the event sponsored by The Christian Science Monitor. Deese noted that Russian inflation is running at 2% weekly, which would compound to annual inflation above 200% annually. He noted that the Biden administration expects Russian prices will not ultimately rise more than 200% this year. While the White House has said Russia should not attend the G-20 meeting in Indonesia this November, he noted that it may drop out of the organization anyway because its economy has shrunk in size so dramatically. After several European countries announced the expulsion of Russian diplomats, the European Commission proposed a fifth package of sanctions including a ban on coal imports that could be adopted once unanimously approved by the 27-nation bloc’s ambassadors. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the coal ban is worth 4 billion euros ($4.4 billion) per year and that the EU has already started working on additional sanctions, including on oil imports. She didn’t mention natural gas, with consensus among the 27 EU countries
Joe Biden pledges new Ukraine aid, warns Russia on chemical weapons
President Joe Biden and Western allies pledged new sanctions and humanitarian aid on Thursday in response to Vladimir Putin’s assault on Ukraine, but their offers fell short of the more robust military assistance that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pleaded for in a pair of live-video appearances. Biden also announced the U.S. would welcome up to 100,000 Ukrainian refugees — though he said many probably prefer to stay closer to home — and provide an additional $1 billion in food, medicine, water, and other supplies. The Western leaders spent Thursday crafting next steps to counter Russia’s month-old invasion — and huddling over how they might respond should Putin deploy chemical, biological, or even a nuclear weapon. They met in a trio of emergency summits that had them shuttling across Brussels for back-to-back-to-back meetings of NATO, the Group of Seven industrialized nations, and the 27-member European Council. Biden, in an early evening news conference after the meetings, warned that a chemical attack by Russia “would trigger a response in kind.” “You’re asking whether NATO would cross. We’d make that decision at the time,” Biden said. However, a White House official said later that did not imply any shift in the U.S. position against direct military action in Ukraine. Biden and NATO allies have stressed that the U.S. and NATO would not put troops on the ground in Ukraine. The official was not authorized to comment publicly by name and spoke only on condition of anonymity. Zelenskyy, while thankful for the newly promised help, made clear to the Western allies he needed far more than they’re currently willing to give. “One percent of all your planes, one percent of all your tanks,” Zelenskyy asked members of the NATO alliance. “We can’t just buy those. When we will have all this, it will give us, just like you, 100% security.” Biden said more aid was on its way. But the Western leaders were treading carefully so as not to further escalate the conflict beyond the borders of Ukraine. “NATO has made a choice to support Ukraine in this war without going to war with Russia,” said French President Emmanuel Macron. “Therefore, we have decided to intensify our ongoing work to prevent any escalation and to get organized in case there is an escalation.” Poland and other eastern flank NATO countries are seeking clarity on how the U.S. and European nations can assist in dealing with their growing concerns about Russian aggression as well as the refugee crisis. More than 3.5 million refugees have fled Ukraine in recent weeks, including more than 2 million to Poland. Biden is to visit Rzeszów, Poland, on Friday, where energy and refugee issues are expected to be at the center of talks with President Andrzej Duda. He’ll get a briefing on humanitarian aid efforts to assist fleeing refugees and he’ll meet with U.S. troops from the 82nd Airborne Division who have been deployed in recent weeks to bolster NATO’s eastern flank. Billions of dollars of military hardware have already been provided to Ukraine. A U.S. official, who requested anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, said Western nations were discussing the possibility of providing anti-ship weapons amid concerns that Russia will launch amphibious assaults along the Black Sea coast. Biden said his top priority at Thursday’s meetings was to make certain that the West stayed on the same page in its response to Russian aggression against Ukraine. “The single most important thing is for us to stay unified,” he said. Finland announced Thursday it would send more military equipment to Ukraine, its second shipment in about three weeks. And Belgium announced it will add one billion euros to its defense budget in response to Russia’s invasion. At the same time, Washington will expand its sanctions on Russia, targeting members of the country’s parliament along with defense contractors. The U.S. said it will also work with other Western nations to ensure gold reserves held by Russia’s central bank are subject to existing sanctions. With Russia facing increasing international isolation, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg also warned China against coming to Moscow’s rescue. He called on Beijing “to join the rest of the world and clearly condemn the brutal war against Ukraine and not support Russia.” But Stoltenberg, too, made clear that the West had a “responsibility to prevent this conflict from becoming a full-fledged war in Europe.” The possibility that Russia will use chemical or even nuclear weapons has been a grim topic of conversation in Brussels. Stoltenberg said that NATO leaders agreed Thursday to send equipment to Ukraine to help protect it against a chemical weapons attack. White House officials said that both the U.S. and NATO have been working on contingency planning should Russia deploy nonconventional weaponry. NATO has specially trained and equipped forces if there should be such an attack against a member nation’s population, territory, or forces. Ukraine is not a member. Stoltenberg said in an NBC News interview that if Russia deployed chemical weapons, that would make “an unpredictable, dangerous situation even more dangerous and even more unpredictable.” He declined to comment about how the alliance might respond. The White House National Security Council launched efforts days after the invasion through its “Tiger Team,” which is tasked with planning three months out, and a second strategy group working on a longer-term review of any geopolitical shift that may come, according to a senior administration official. The official was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on the condition of anonymity. Both teams are conducting contingency planning for scenarios including Russia’s potential use of chemical or biological weapons, targeting of U.S. security convoys in the region, disruptions to global food supply chains, and the growing refugee crisis. Biden before departing for Europe on Wednesday said that the possibility of a chemical attack was a “real threat.” In addition, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told CNN this week that Russia could consider using its nuclear weapons if it felt there were “an existential threat for our country.” Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin on Thursday warned, “Russia is capable
West unleashes SWIFT bans, more crushing penalties on Russia
The United States and European nations agreed Saturday to impose the most potentially crippling financial penalties yet on Russia over its unrelenting invasion of Ukraine, going after the central bank reserves that underpin the Russian economy, and severing some Russian banks from a vital global financial network. The decision, announced as Ukrainian forces battled Saturday to hold Russian forces back from Ukraine’s capital and residents sheltered in subway tunnels, basements, and underground garages, has potential to spread the pain of Western retaliation for President Vladimir Putin’s invasion to ordinary Russians far more than previous rounds of penalties. “Putin embarked on a path aiming to destroy Ukraine, but what he is also doing, in fact, is destroying the future of his own country,” EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said. The European Union, United States, United Kingdom and other allies have steadily stepped up the intensity of their sanctions since Russia launched the invasion late last week. While U.S. and European officials made clear they still were working out the mechanics of how to implement the latest measures, and intend to spare Russia’s oil and natural gas exports, the sanctions in total potentially could amount to some of the toughest levied on a nation in modern times. If fully carried out as planned, the measures will severely damage the Russian economy and markedly constrain its ability to import and export goods. The U.S. and European allies announced the moves in a joint statement as part of a new round of financial sanctions meant to “hold Russia to account and collectively ensure that this war is a strategic failure for Putin.” The central bank restrictions target access to the more than $600 billion in reserves that the Kremlin has at its disposal, and are meant to block Russia’s ability to support the ruble as it plunges in value amid tightening Western sanctions. The ruble and Russia’s stock market both declined sharply immediately after Russia launched military action in Ukraine on Thursday. The ruble recovered slightly but is still down more than 6 percent from before Putin’s announcement, trading at nearly 84 rubles to the dollar. U.S. officials said Saturday’s steps were framed to send the ruble into “free fall” and promote soaring inflation in the Russian economy. The decline of the ruble would likely send inflation soaring, which would hurt everyday Russians and not just the Russian elites who were the targets of the original sanctions. The resulting economic disruption, if Saturday’s measures are as harsh as described, could leave Putin facing political unrest at home. Analysts predicted intensifying runs on banks by Russians, and falling government reserves as Russians scrambled to sell their targeted currency for safer assets. The U.S. officials noted that previously announced sanctions have already had an impact on Russia, bringing its currency to its lowest level against the dollar in history and giving its stock market the worst week on record. Saturday’s move also includes cutting key Russian banks out of the SWIFT financial messaging system, which daily moves countless billions of dollars around more than 11,000 banks and other financial institutions around the world. The fine print of the sanctions was still being ironed out over the weekend, officials said, as they work to limit the impact of the restrictions on other economies and European purchases of Russian energy. Allies on both sides of the Atlantic also considered the SWIFT option in 2014, when Russia invaded and annexed Ukraine’s Crimea and backed separatist forces in eastern Ukraine. Russia declared then that kicking it out of SWIFT would be equivalent to a declaration of war. The allies — criticized ever after for responding too weakly to Russia’s 2014 aggression — shelved the idea back then. Russia since then has tried to develop its own financial transfer system, with limited success. The U.S. has succeeded before in persuading the Belgium-based SWIFT system to kick out a country — Iran, over its nuclear program. But kicking Russia out of SWIFT could also hurt other economies, including those of the U.S. and key ally Germany. Only rarely has the West and its allies fired a full salvo of its available financial weapons on a country. Iran and North Korea, two previous targets, had far smaller roles in the world economy, while Russia, with its enormous petroleum reserves, plays a much bigger role in global trade, and parts of Europe depend on its natural gas. The disconnection from SWIFT announced by the West on Saturday is partial, leaving Europe and the United States room to escalate penalties later. Officials said they had not fully settled on which banks would be cut off. Announcing the measures in Brussels, the EU Commission president, von der Leyen, said she would push the bloc to “paralyze the assets of Russia’s Central bank” so that its transactions would be frozen. Cutting several commercial banks from SWIFT “will ensure that these banks are disconnected from the international financial system and harm their ability to operate globally,” she added. “Cutting banks off will stop them from conducting most of their financial transactions worldwide and effectively block Russian exports and imports,” she added. Getting the EU on board for sanctioning Russia through SWIFT had been a tough process since EU trade with Russia amounted to 80 billion euros, about 10 times as much as the United States, which had been an early proponent of such measures. Germany specifically had balked at the measure since it could hit them hard. But Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said in a statement that “after Russia’s shameless attack … we are working hard on limiting the collateral damage of decoupling (Russia) from SWIFT so that it hits the right people. What we need is a targeted, functional restrictions of SWIFT.” As another measure, the allies announced a commitment “to taking measures to limit the sale of citizenship — so-called golden passports — that let wealthy Russians connected to the Russian government become citizens of our countries and gain access to our financial systems.” The
Kamala Harris acknowledges ‘real possibility of war’ in Europe
Acknowledging “the real possibility of war,” Vice President Kamala Harris wrapped up a weekend of outreach to European allies with a push to bolster the West’s resolve in confronting Moscow with crippling sanctions as increasingly dire signs suggest Russia’s Vladimir Putin plans to order an invasion of Ukraine. In a burst of diplomacy at the annual Munich Security Conference, Harris tried to make the case to American allies that rapidly escalating tensions on the Ukraine-Russian border meant European security was under “direct threat” and there should be unified support for economic penalties if the Kremlin invades its neighbor. “We’re talking about the potential for war in Europe. I mean, let’s really take a moment to understand the significance of what we’re talking about,” Harris told reporters before her return to Washington. Europe, she said, might be at its most perilous moment since the end of World War II. “It’s been over 70 years, and through those 70 years … there has been peace and security,” she said. “We are talking about the real possibility of war in Europe.” President Joe Biden was to meet with his national security team later Sunday in Washington to discuss the unfolding developments. Harris planned to participate while flying back from Germany. Before leaving Munich, Harris and her team briefed them about her meetings and exchanges at the conference. Biden is scheduled to hold a virtual meeting with Group of Seven leaders on Thursday to discuss Ukraine, and his top diplomat, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, intends to meet in Europe with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov this coming week — talks that the American says will be scrapped if Moscow has invaded. In Ukraine, shelling on Sunday escalated in and around territory held by Russia-backed rebels, separatists evacuated thousands of women and children, and Putin oversaw tests of nuclear-capable missiles. Putin has massed more than 150,000 Russian forces at the border. During a series of choreographed meetings and a major address at the security conference, Harris told global leaders they were at a “defining” and “decisive” moment for the world. Harris met with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, the leaders of the three Baltic nations, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Biden sent Harris to Germany with straightforward marching orders to amplify his concern that a Russian invasion was highly likely and make clear to European allies that they must be ready to impose the toughest sanctions Moscow has ever seen. Harris told reporters that an invasion — and subsequent sanctions on Russia — would likely have costs for Americans, as well. “When America stands for principles, and all of the things that we hold dear, it requires sometimes for us to put ourselves out there in a way that maybe we will incur some cost,” Harris said. “In this situation, that may relate to energy costs.” The vice president’s appearance in Munich was largely overshadowed by Biden’s declaration from the White House late Friday that he was “convinced” that Putin had decided to invade. And her message of unity in Europe in the face of Russian aggression was overtaken by Zelenskyy. Soon after meeting with Harris on Saturday, he used his appearance at the conference to question why the U.S. and Europe were waiting to impose sanctions against Russia. “What are you waiting for?” Zelenskyy asked of Western leaders. He said the sanctions that targeted Russia after Ukraine’s economy collapses and “parts of our country will be occupied” would provide little comfort. Harris said she wouldn’t “second guess” Zelenskyy’s “desires for his country,” and she stood by the U.S. decision to hold off on preemptive sanctions. “The purpose of the sanctions has always been and continues to be deterrence,” she said. Blinken also told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that “as soon as you trigger the sanctions, of course, any deterrent effect they may have is gone, they get absorbed by President Putin, and he moves on.” Zelenskyy also repeated Ukraine’s desire to join NATO even as Putin demands guarantees from the U.S. and the alliance of that not ever happening. Harris, meantime, heard pleas to increase U.S. troop levels from Baltic leaders who worry their countries could be the next ones that Russia sets its eyes on. Lithuania’s president, Gitanas Nauseda, urged the U.S., which has bolstered its troop presence in the Baltics in recent weeks, to do even more and create a “permanent presence” in Lithuania. Currently, the U.S. deploys a small contingent of troops to the country on a rotational basis. Estonia’s prime minister, Kaja Kallas, echoed that call. “We have lost our independence to Russia once, and we don’t want it to happen again,” she said. Harris offered no promises, though she predicted in her address at the conference that the U.S. “will further reinforce our NATO Allies on the eastern flank” if Russia invades Ukraine. Republished with the permission of the Associated Press.
World Health Organization warns new virus variant poses ‘very high’ risk
The World Health Organization warned Monday that the global risk from the omicron variant is “very high” based on the early evidence, saying the mutated coronavirus could lead to surges with “severe consequences.” The assessment from the U.N. health agency, contained in a technical paper issued to member states, amounted to WHO’s strongest, most explicit warning yet about the new version that was first identified days ago by researchers in South Africa. It came as a widening circle of countries around the world reported cases of the variant and moved to slam their doors in an act-now-ask-questions-later approach while scientists race to figure out just how dangerous the mutant version might be. Japan announced it is barring entry to all foreign visitors, joining Israel in doing so. Morocco banned all incoming flights. Other countries, including the U.S. and members of the European Union, have moved to prohibit travelers arriving from southern Africa. WHO said there are “considerable uncertainties” about the omicron variant. But it said preliminary evidence raises the possibility that the variant has mutations that could help it both evade an immune-system response and boost its ability to spread from one person to another. “Depending on these characteristics, there could be future surges of COVID-19, which could have severe consequences, depending on a number of factors, including where surges may take place,” it added. “The overall global risk … is assessed as very high.” The WHO stressed that while scientists are hunting evidence to better understand this variant, countries should accelerate vaccinations as quickly as possible. While no deaths linked to omicron have been reported so far, little is known for certain about the variant, including whether it is more contagious, more likely to cause serious illness, or more able to evade vaccines. Last week, a WHO advisory panel said it might be more likely to re-infect people who have already had a bout with COVID-19. Scientists have long warned that the virus will keep finding new ways to exploit weaknesses in the world’s vaccination drive, and its discovery in Africa occurred in a continent where under 7% of the population is vaccinated. “The emergence of the omicron variant has fulfilled, in a precise way, the predictions of the scientists who warned that the elevated transmission of the virus in areas with limited access to vaccine would speed its evolution,” said Dr. Richard Hatchett, head of CEPI, one of the founders of the U.N.-backed global vaccine sharing initiative COVAX. Spain on Monday became one of the latest countries to report its first confirmed omicron case, detected in a traveler who returned Sunday from South Africa after making a stopover in Amsterdam. While the majority of omicron infections recorded around the world have been in travelers arriving from abroad, cases in Portugal and Scotland have raised fears that the variant may already be spreading locally. “Many of us might think we are done with COVID-19. It’s not done with us,” warned Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO’s director-general. Days after the variant sent a shudder through the financial world nearly two years into the pandemic that has killed over 5 million people, and markets had a mixed reaction Monday. European stocks rebounded, and Wall Street steadied itself, while Asian markets fell further. U.S. President Joe Biden called the omicron variant a cause for concern but “not a cause for panic.” He said he is not considering any widespread U.S. lockdown and instead urged mask-wearing and vaccinations, even as a federal judge blocked his administration from enforcing a requirement that thousands of health care workers in 10 states get the shot. Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, reacted to the potential threat by urging everyone 18 and older to get booster shots because “strong immunity will likely prevent serious illness.” Earlier this month, the U.S. opened boosters to all adults but recommended them only for those 50 and older or people in long-term care. The omicron infections have underscored the difficulty in keeping the virus in check in a globalized world of jet travel and open borders. Yet many countries are trying to do just that, against the urging of the WHO, which noted that border closings often have limited effect and can wreak havoc on lives and livelihoods. Some have argued that such restrictions can buy valuable time to analyze the new variant. While the initial global response to COVID-19 was criticized as slow and haphazard, the reaction to the omicron variant came quickly. “This time, the world showed it is learning,” said EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, singling out South African President Cyril Ramaphosa for praise. “South Africa’s analytic work and transparency and sharing its results was indispensable in allowing a swift global response.” Late last week, von der Leyen successfully pushed the 27-nation EU to agree to ban flights from seven southern African nations, similar to what many other countries are doing. Cases have been reported in such places as Canada, Germany, Britain, Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Portugal, where authorities identified 13 omicron infections among members of the Belenenses professional soccer team. Taking no chances, Japan, which has yet to detect any omicron cases, reimposed border controls that it had eased earlier this month. “We are taking the step as an emergency precaution to prevent a worst-case scenario in Japan,” Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said. Israel likewise decided to bar entry to foreigners, and Morocco said it would suspend all incoming flights for two weeks. Britain reacted by expanding its COVID-19 booster program to everyone 18 and older, making millions more people eligible. Up until now, booster shots were available only to those 40 and over and people particularly vulnerable to the virus. The U.K. has reported about a dozen omicron cases. Despite the global worry, doctors in South Africa are reporting patients are suffering mostly mild symptoms so far. But they warn that it is early. Also, most of the new cases are in people in their 20s and 30s,
