A swing state no more? GOP confidence grows in Florida

Democrats are increasingly concerned that Florida, once the nation’s premier swing state, may slip away this fall and beyond as emboldened Republicans capitalize on divisive cultural issues and population shifts in crucial contests for governor and the U.S. Senate. The anxiety was apparent last week during a golf cart parade of Democrats featuring Senate candidate Val Demings at The Villages, a retirement community just north of the Interstate 4 corridor. It was once a politically mixed part of the state where elections were often decided, but now some Democrats now say they feel increasingly isolated. “I am terrified,” said 77-year-old Sue Sullivan, lamenting the state’s rightward shift. “There are very few Democrats around here.” In an interview, Demings, a congresswoman and former Orlando police chief challenging Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, conceded that her party’s midterm message isn’t resonating as she had hoped. “We have to do a better job of telling our stories and clearly demonstrating who’s truly on the side of people who have to go to work every day,” she said. The frustration is the culmination of nearly a decade of Republican inroads in Florida, where candidates have honed deeply conservative social and economic messages to build something of a coalition that includes rural voters and Latinos, particularly Cuban Americans. Donald Trump’s win here in 2016 signaled the evolution after the state twice backed Barack Obama. And while he lost the White House in 2020, Trump carried Florida by more than 3 percentage points, a remarkable margin in a state where elections were regularly decided by less than a percentage point. President Joe Biden will visit the state on November 1, exactly one week before Election Day, to rally Democrats. Demings said she’s had two conversations with the president about campaigning together, but she could not confirm any joint appearances. And Charlie Crist, the Democratic nominee for governor, said he would attend a private fundraiser with Biden on the day of the rally, but he wasn’t sure whether they would appear together in public. “If we could squeeze in a little public airtime, that’d be a wonderful thing I would welcome,” Crist said in an interview. Still, the GOP is bullish that it can keep notching victories, even in longtime Democratic strongholds. Some Republicans are optimistic the party could carry Miami-Dade County, a once unthinkable prospect that would virtually eliminate the Democrats’ path to victory in statewide contests, including presidential elections. And in southwest Florida’s Lee County, a major Republican stronghold, not even a devastating hurricane appears to have dented the GOP’s momentum. In fact, Republicans and Democrats privately agree that Hurricane Ian, which left more than 100 dead, may have helped Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis broaden his appeal. On Monday, he’ll participate in a debate against Crist in which he’ll likely highlight his stewardship of the state during a searing crisis. But the 44-year-old Republican governor has spent much of his first term focused on sensitive social issues. He’s signed new laws banning abortions at 15 weeks of pregnancy with no exceptions for rape or incest, along with blocking critical race theory and LGBTQ issues from many Florida schools. He has also stripped millions of dollars from a major league baseball team that spoke out against gun violence and led efforts to eliminate Disney’s special tax status for condemning his so-called “Don’t Say Gay” bill. On the eve of the hurricane, DeSantis shipped dozens of Venezuelan immigrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard to call attention to illegal immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border. Crist, a former congressman and onetime governor himself, acknowledged some voters “dig” DeSantis’ focus on cultural issues, “but most Floridians are good, decent people.” He noted that at least one Hispanic radio host has compared DeSantis to former Cuban dictator Fidel Castro. “Customarily, when you come out of a primary, people will move to the middle. He’s clearly not doing that, to say the least,” Crist said of his Republican rival. But to the horror of many Democrats, DeSantis could become the first Floridian to win a governor’s race by more than 1 point since 2006. That kind of showing might lift Rubio in the U.S. Senate election while helping the GOP win as many as 20 of the state’s 28 U.S. House seats. Should DeSantis win big as expected, his allies believe he would have the political capital to launch a successful presidential campaign in 2024 — whether Trump runs or not. “It’s shocking, and it’s scary,” state Democratic Party Chair Manny Diaz said about DeSantis’ repeated willingness to use the power of his office to attack political rivals, whether individual opponents or iconic corporations like Disney. DeSantis, who declined an interview request, has found success by bucking the conventional wisdom before. He beat Democrat Andrew Gillum four years ago by 32,436 votes out of more than 8.2 million cast, a margin so narrow that it required a recount. But in the four years since then, Republicans have erased a voter registration advantage that Florida Democrats had guarded for decades. When registration closed for the 2018 election, Democrats enjoyed a 263,269-vote advantage. As of September 30, Republicans had a lead of 292,533 voters — a swing of nearly 556,000 registered voters over DeSantis’ first term. “We’re no longer a swing state. We’re actually annihilating the Democrats,” said Florida GOP Chairman Joe Gruters, a leading DeSantis ally. And while he says his party has focused on traditional kitchen-table issues, such as gas prices and inflation, Gruters leaned into cultural fights — especially the Florida GOP’s opposition to sexual education and LGBTQ issues in elementary schools — that have defined DeSantis’ tenure. “I don’t want anyone else teaching my kids about the birds and the bees and gender fluidity issues,” Gruters said. Strategists in both parties believe Florida’s political shift is due to multiple factors, but there is general agreement that Republicans have benefited from an influx of new voters since DeSantis emerged as the leader of the GOP resistance to the pandemic-related public health measures. Every day on average over the year between 2020 and 2021, 667 more people
Terri Sewell votes in favor of public safety legislation

Congresswoman Terri Sewell voted in favor of four major public safety bills on Thursday. The Democratic bill’s sponsors hope they will deliver new federal resources to break the cycle of violence and build safer communities. This package of four bills passed the House of Representatives on Thursday. “Making our communities safer for our children and families has always been a top priority of mine in Congress, and that’s exactly what this legislation would do,” said Rep. Sewell. “Together, these bills would ensure that our local community organizations, local law enforcement, and especially rural police departments have the tools they need to keep Alabamians safe. With House passage of these bills, we’re one step closer to delivering deeply needed investments to prevent crime, boost community violence prevention, strengthen police accountability, and save lives.” The Invest to Protect Act was sponsored by Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-New Jersey) and passed with a 360 to 64 vote. Nine Democrats and 55 Republicans voted against the bill. The legislation would allocate federal grants to small law enforcement agencies that encompass fewer than 125 officers. The Break the Cycle of Violence Act was sponsored by Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nevada). It passed 220 to 207. Only one Republican, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (Pennsylvania), voted in favor. The legislation awards grants for coordinated community violence initiatives in areas that see a disproportionate amount of homicides and other forms of violence. The grants, from the Department of Health and Human Services, would be used to curb violent behavior. The Mental Health Justice Act was sponsored by Rep. Katie Porter (D-California). It awards funds to train and assign mental health professionals to respond to situations involving individuals with special behavioral needs, rather than sending law enforcement personnel. The measure passed 223 to 206, with three Republicans voting in favor. The VICTIM Act was sponsored by Rep. Val Demings (D-Florida). It creates a grant program that would give law enforcement agencies new funding to hire and train detectives to investigate homicides, sexual assaults, and other violent crimes. It also ensures that victim services are funded, staffed, and trained to address the needs of survivors and family members and provides federal funding to acquire and upgrade investigative technology to better process evidence. The bill passed in a 250 to 178 vote, with 30 Republicans joining all Democrats present in supporting the legislation. Sewell said that this legislation builds on President Joe Biden and Congressional Democrats’ ongoing work to build safer communities in Alabama and across the country. Sewell is in her sixth term representing Alabama’s Seventh Congressional District. To connect with the author of this story, or to comment, email brandonmreporter@gmail.com.
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