Steve Flowers: Handicapping Democrats for 2018 governor’s race
Last week, we handicapped some of the potential horses in the upcoming 2018 Governor’s Race. We mentioned Judge Roy Moore, PSC President Twinkle Cavanaugh, Agriculture Commissioner John McMillan, Secretary of State John Merrill, State Treasurer Young Boozer, State Senator Del Marsh and Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle. Some others that may be considering pursuing the brass ring of Alabama politics are Lt. Governor Kay Ivey, Supreme Court Justice Jim Main, Jefferson County Commission President David Carrington, Trump’s Trumpeter in the State Perry Hooper, Jr., Huntsville State Representative Jim Patterson and ADECA Director and former Prattville Mayor Jim Byard. You can also add former Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville to the mix of possible gubernatorial candidates. All of these aforementioned horses would run as Republicans in the 2018 Gubernatorial Derby. It is assumed that only a Republican can win statewide office in Alabama and that next year’s June 2018 GOP primary is tantamount to election. Therefore, it is only a 15-month race to election for governor. The late Lucy Baxley was the last Democrat to hold statewide office in Alabama. She lost re-election to the PSC in 2012. It has been almost two decades since a Democrat has captured the Governor’s office. Donald Trump carried Alabama with almost 63 percent of the vote. It is thought by most political prognosticators that a Democratic candidate can at best get 40 percent of the vote in the Heart of Dixie. However, there are several brave souls who are die-hard Democrats and may be bold enough to test that theory. One of these emboldened is Parker Griffith, who ran as the Democratic nominee against Robert Bentley four years ago, in 2014 and received 36 percent of the vote. Griffith is a personable, former oncologist, State Senator and Congressman from Huntsville. He seems dedicated to making the plunge. The most mentioned Democratic candidate is former Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb. She was elected to the state Supreme Court in 2012, which was the last time a Democrat won statewide in Alabama. She is seriously considering the race for governor. She could be handicapped by the fact that she quit in the middle of her term on the Court and a Republican was appointed by the Governor. State Representative Craig Ford who has served as House Minority Leader is considering a run for governor. Like Griffith, Ford is likable. He is one of the few remaining white Democrats left in the Alabama House of Representatives. In fact, if Ford vacated his seat to run for Governor a Republican would probably take it. The wild card in a potential Democratic field might be the popular young Mayor of Tuscaloosa, Walt Maddox. He considers himself a Democrat. Maddox is well thought of in the Druid City, which is a more populous and vote-rich area of the state than most folks realize. If he got a strong support from Tuscaloosa coupled with the ADC and New South endorsements, it could propel him to the Democratic nomination. He would bring to the dance a sterling record of achievement as Mayor of Tuscaloosa. However, if he has to go through a bruising primary he may come to the prom beat up and broke. Not to mention that the Prom King/Queen is highly favored to be a Republican. He would be hard-pressed to raise campaign money in the fall campaign. Most of the bets would be placed on the Republican. This brings us to another chapter in the governor’s race. The folks who wrote our 1901 Constitution intended for the power in state government to be rested in the hands of the legislature. During the Wallace years, George Wallace had immense power over the legislature. This usurpation of power has incrementally declined over the years. It has culminated with a decimation of gubernatorial power. The last two governors, Bob Riley and Robert Bentley, have been rendered irrelevant by the legislature. Special interests have taken note of this transfer of power and their money has followed. Campaign money that use to go to the governor’s race now flows to legislative races. It is not unusual to see House seats cost $300,000 and State Senate races rise to $1 million. It is going to be a great election year. See you next week. ___ Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state Legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
Steve Flowers: Alabama will do just fine under Donald Trump
Alabama is going to fare wall under President Donald Trump. There is an old adage that says, “Those that bake the pie get to eat it.” We truly baked the pie for Trump. We overwhelmingly supported him in the GOP primary and helped him secure the nomination. We then gave him one of the largest mandates in the nation in the November General Election. Trump is indeed returning the favor. He has named our own Jeff Sessions Attorney General. His confirmation hearings begin this week. In addition, speculation is that Alabama’s Bill Pryor is on a very short list to be named to the U.S. Supreme Court by Trump to fill the vacancy on the Court of the late Antonin Scalia. Pryor is a former Alabama Attorney General, who currently sits on the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals in Atlanta. Pryor is only 54. He served as Alabama Attorney General from 1997-2004. He was the youngest state attorney general in the country at that time. He was appointed to the federal bench in 2005 by President George W. Bush. During his 11 years on the federal bench he has rendered a sterling conservative record. Pryor and Sessions have amazingly similar backgrounds. Both call Mobile their native home. Both were Attorney General of Alabama. Both have impeccable arch-conservative philosophies and pedigrees. They are kindred spirits and good friends. That is probably why Pryor is on Trump’s short list for the High Court. Most of the frontrunners to win the open Sessions Senate seat have avoided Bentley’s appointment. So how is the race shaking out to fill the Sessions’ seat? The frontrunner out of the gate is Attorney General Luther Strange. Big Luther has run three successful statewide races and is sitting on over 50 percent statewide name recognition. Furthermore, he is dedicated to running and has been for 20 years. He spent the first 20 years of his professional career lobbying in Washington for Sonat. He came home 20 years ago to run for a secondary statewide office and lay the groundwork to get back to Washington as a U.S. Senator. He has been biding his time for his buddies Sessions and Shelby to retire or move on. When Sessions’ appointment became imminent, Big Luther hit the ground running and has been raising money for 2018 for two months. The other statewide elected officials will probably not join the 2018 Senate fray. Secretary of State John Merrill has a good future. He is 53 and will probably run for re-election or maybe Lieutenant Governor. PSC President Twinkle Cavanaugh will probably run for Lieutenant Governor or maybe Governor. It is uncertain what State Treasurer Young Boozer will do. However, his tentativeness has probably left him out of the Senate race. Agriculture Commissioner John McMillan is running for Governor. State Auditor Jim Ziegler will run for Governor, Attorney General or re-election. Roy Moore is the favorite to win the 2018 Governor’s Race. Congressman Robert Aderholt would be the best qualified to run and succeed Sessions. He and Sessions went to Washington together 20 years ago. However, his 20 years of seniority in the House has placed him in a powerful congressional leadership position. He is poised to be Chairman of the U.S. House Appropriations Committee. His move to being a freshman Senator would be a lateral move. Alabama and his district would be best served by his staying in the House. Mobile and Baldwin County folks believe that they deserve the Senate seat since Sessions is a Mobilian. There are three potential candidates from the Port City/Gulf Coast Region. Former Congressman Jo Bonner is not going to run. Current Congressman Bradley Byrne would have the best chance to win among all the potential Mobile candidates. He was almost elected Governor. However, Byrne is probably not going to leave his safe congressional seat. He likes it and is good at it. State Senator Trip Pittman from Baldwin County is in the race and is running hard. If he continues to be the only major horse from that area in the race and it becomes a crowded field, he may be in a runoff. Speaking of regionalism, look at a horse from Huntsville to enter the race. If there is one primary candidate from the Tennessee Valley they will be a player. Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle may pivot and move from the Governor’s race to the Senate. Folks in that area have always been more interested in national politics than state politics because of the Redstone Arsenal. State Senate President Pro Tem Del Marsh of Anniston seems very interested in this open U.S. Senate seat. He has sought the Bentley appointment. However, being a powerful State Senator does not translate into statewide name identification. See you next week. ___ Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state Legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
