For the first time, Gov. Kay Ivey has dropped below 50% in her race for re-election May 24.
In a matchup of possible candidates, Ivey now has only 41.5%, well below the threshold to win without a runoff at 50% plus one vote. Incumbents below 50% are considered vulnerable.
The independent poll was conducted by Montgomery-based Cygnal August 17-18 among 600 likely Republican primary voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 4.0%. It was paid for by Alabama Daily News.
Undecided voters scored 34%. Having had an opportunity to pick the incumbent. The undecideds did not and are generally considered to be prospects to support a challenger.
The Republican primary is May 24, 2022, nine months away. The candidate qualifying deadline is January 28, some five months away.
Scoring second place was State Auditor Jim Zeigler, who filed an official gubernatorial fund-raising committee with the Secretary of State this month. He has started an ‘exploratory campaign’ and says he will announce a decision when he “can raise enough funds to get the message out.” Other candidates include Tim James, Dean Odle, Christopher Countrymen, and Stacy Lee George.
Zeigler says his message is “Zeigler and the Taxpayers vs. Ivey and the Insiders.” He says his strategy is “to get into a runoff against Gov. Ivey.” The Cygnal poll indicates the probability of that situation developing, with Ivey now falling below 50% and Zeigler in a clear second.
Zeigler says the 34% undecided voters “are for anybody but Ivey.” “I intend to target those 34% of dissatisfied voters and add them to the Zeigler column.”
The poll results were:
Kay Ivey 41.5%
Jim Zeigler 8.8%
Tim James 3.5%
Dean Odle 3.1%
Someone else 9.2%
Undecided 33.9%
