Steve Flowers: An analysis of gubernatorial primaries
Now that the dust has settled from last week’s gubernatorial primaries, let’s analyze the outcome. Governor Kay Ivey and Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox won very impressive victories. Ms. Ivey beat three well financed opponents without a runoff. She trounced them. She garnered 56 percent of the vote to 25 percent for Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle. Evangelist Scott Dawson and Mobile State Senator Bill Hightower brought up the rear with 13 percent and 5 percent respectively. All three men worked hard and raised money. It was a daunting task to defeat a sitting governor. The challenge now goes to youthful, vibrant, Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox, who captured the Democratic nomination with a brilliant and impressive victory. Maddox’s win may have been more impressive than Ivey’s. He had to defeat a field of five. He did so, like Ivey, without a runoff. He also received 55 percent of his primary vote. His closest challenger was former Alabama Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb, who got 29 percent. Former Cullman State Representative James Fields ran third in the Democratic primary with 9 percent of the vote. Polling revealed three months out that Kay Ivey had an insurmountable lead. Remarkably, the same polls had her with the almost identical 30-point lead three weeks out. Her numbers were 45 to Battle’s 12, Dawson 9, and Hightower 4 in mid-February and again as late as mid-May. The only way to diminish that kind of lead is to go negative. Battle refused to go negative, which negated any chance he had to overtake her. He was the only one of the three with the financial resources to decimate her numbers. He chose to use his campaign largesse to buy name identification. He is probably planning on making another run for governor in 2022. Thus, making this his get acquainted race. Kay will more than likely not be a candidate for reelection in 2022, if indeed she survives the November general election against the Democrat Walt Maddox. All three dawdled with the scheme to go after Kay’s age, cognizance, and health. The first to use the ploy was Hightower. In a veiled way to draw attention to Kay’s health, he released his medical report. Dawson and Battle followed suit with statements from their doctors saying they were fine. The media took the bait and smelled blood. They caught Kay off guard and off script. She first gave some ambiguous, befuddled response. Then when her campaign handlers had time to survey the scenario, they realized that all the three men did was to get a written statement from their primary physician that simply stated they were in generally good health. Well, Kay could do that. The issue was diffused and laid to rest. Presidential candidates cannot get by with broad, benign statements that they are fine. They are made to reveal their medical records and history. This is sometimes pretty private and quite revealing. Every medical problem, procedure, medication, and disease contracted is shown. There is a reason that Bill Clinton did not release his medical records. The gentleman award in the GOP Primary goes to Mayor Tommy Battle and Preacher Scott Dawson in the Governor’s race and State Senator Rusty Glover in the Lt. Governor’s race. They were vibrant and positive. Their sincerity and candor were refreshing. They gave hope that good people will enter Alabama politics. However, they also gave renewed credence to the old adage, “nice guys finish last.” This maxim is especially true in politics. One of the most interesting stories of this year’s gubernatorial election is that when Kay Ivey was a student at Auburn University 52 years ago, she cut her teeth in politics campaigning for Lurleen Wallace for governor. Lurleen won that race going away. In 1966, Governor Lurleen Wallace defeated 10 male opponents without a runoff. She is our only elected female governor in our state’s history. Ironically, if Kay is elected in November, she will be our second elected female governor. Kay Ivey also made a special friend at Auburn. She and Jimmy Rane met and bonded at the Loveliest Village on the Plain. Rane, better known as the Yellow Man from his commercials, founded Great Southern Wood Company and has forged it into one of America’s great companies. Rane runs his company out of Abbeville and still resides in his native Henry County. Rane and Ivey have remained fast friends over the years. He has been an integral part of her campaign. He has been her largest personal contributor. In addition, she used Rane’s Great Southern jet to fly around the state on her final day of campaigning. See you next week. ••• Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
Steve Flowers: Secondary statewide races on the ballot this year
Folks, we are less than three weeks away from our June 5th primary. Besides the governor’s race, all of our secondary constitutional races are on the ballot. As we head into the home stretch, there appears to be very little interest in the primary elections. People seem disinterested and disillusioned. There have been a good many scandals and ethics convictions over the past quadrennium, which has put a damper on the enthusiasm generally associated with a gubernatorial election year. Even fundraising has been down considerably. This voting ambivalence will result in a lower than normal turnout. This accrues to the advantage of incumbents and those with name identification. The governor’s race has not been that interesting. However, the Democrats have fielded quality candidates in that race. The winner of the June GOP Primary will have to mount a campaign in the fall against either Walt Maddox or Sue Bell Cobb. The secondary races are being lost in the shuffle of the avalanche of races on the ballot. The best race, as was expected, has been the Attorney General contest. Former Governor, Robert Bentley, during his last days as governor, appointed an obscure former District Attorney named Steve Marshall, as the acting Attorney General. As expected Marshall did the bidding of Bentley and allowed him leniency in any further prosecution. Marshall has used every tool of incumbency to strong arm campaign contributions for his race for a full term. However, polling indicates that his efforts will be to no avail. With so little interest in the secondary statewide races, former Attorney General Troy King, is perceived as the incumbent and enjoys a comfortable lead in this race due to his name identification. As we head to “Amen” corner, my guess is that King leads the race and former U.S. Attorney Alice Martin is in a runoff with Troy King. Birmingham attorney, Chess Bedsole, could be a late surprise if he spends a significant amount of his own money. He is not a political novice. He was an integral part of the Donald Trump presidential campaign. The winner will probably face off against Joseph Siegelman, a handsome, progressive, young heir to an iconic Alabama Democratic name. The Lt. Governor race has changed very little since the beginning of the campaign season four months ago. Public Service Commission President, Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh, holds a commanding lead in all polls. She knows how to run statewide and has headed the state Republican Party. Even though her polling lead is daunting, her results in three weeks may even exceed her formidable lead in the polls. She has built a statewide grassroots campaign organization over the years, which her two challengers lack. The last polls reveal that Twinkle Cavanaugh leads Mobile State Senator Rusty Glover and Sand Mountain State Representative Will Ainsworth. Polls reveal that Glover will get a good friends and neighbors vote from his home Mobile region. This may hold him in good stead in a race for Congress in two years, if Mobile-Baldwin Congressman Bradley Bryne runs for the U.S. Senate in 2020. Will Ainsworth has made a significant television buy in the lieutenant governor’s race, which should propel him into second place in that contest. Secretary of State John Merrill will waltz to a second term as Secretary of State. He is the best retail politician on the Alabama political scene. Even though he has token opposition, he has probably outworked every candidate on the ballot. When his office counts all the ballots on June 6, Merrill will probably be the top vote getter in all statewide races. Right behind Merrill winning in a landslide, will be Agriculture Commissioner John McMillan, who will have an overwhelming victory as State Treasurer. Rick Pate has gotten a lot of traction in the Agriculture Commissioner race. He has garnered most of the major endorsements, including ALFA and BCA. Jeremy Oden and Chip Beeker should coast to reelection victories as members of the Public Service Commission for another four years. Beeker, Oden and Twinkle Cavanaugh should benefit from their recent vote to save Alabama Power customers $337 million over the next two years, a cut made possible by the Trump administration and Republican Congress’ passage of federal tax reform. Folks, that is a big win for Alabama’s economy. It is sure to put a smile on the faces of families and small business owners across the state. Cavanaugh, Beeker, and Oden deserve credit for making it happen. See you next week. ••• Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
Steve Flowers: Kay Ivey’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep
We are less than four weeks away from our June 5th primary. Those of us who follow Alabama politics have pointed to this year as being a very entertaining and interesting gubernatorial year. However, last year’s resignation by former Governor, Robert Bentley and the ascension of Kay Ivey from Lt. Governor to the Governor’s office has put a damper on the excitement we anticipated in the governor’s race. Kay took over the reins of state government and her appearance as a seasoned veteran of state politics seems to resonate with voters. Polling indicates that the governor’s race is hers to lose. Therefore, the less she does may be the best course. Her support is a mile wide and an inch deep. A slip and fall could derail her train. Her perch reminds me of a story surrounding the last truly colorful southern governor, Edwin Edwards of Louisiana. Ole Edwin had a wide lead like Kay’s in the polls a few weeks prior to his race for reelection as governor of the Pelican state. The press asked him about two weeks out about his significant lead in the polls. Edwin’s reply was, “Yeah, the only way that ole Edwin can lose this race is to get caught in bed with a dead woman or a live boy.” Tommy Battle, the popular Mayor of Huntsville is poised to make a formidable run at Kay in the closing weeks. He has some money in the bank and will come out of the vote rich Tennessee Valley with a good friends and neighbors vote. The Evangelical Roy Moore voters appear to be coalescing around Evangelist Scott Dawson. My guess is that Walt Maddox, the young 45-year old Mayor of Tuscaloosa is benefitting from a grass roots support among African American voters in the Democratic primary. If indeed this is the case, Maddox will be favored to capture the Democratic nomination. Will Barfoot has emerged as the frontrunner in the closely watched open Montgomery/River Region Republican seat. Incumbent State Senator Paul Bussman is in a close contest with Cullman City Council President Garlan Grudger. Polling indicates that this one may be too close to call. Bussman’s departure from the GOP Senate Caucus has given his constituents the perception that he may be rendered ineffective. This district is politically savvy. Veteran educator, Wayne Reynolds, may be poised to win the State Board of Education District 8 seat in the Huntsville-Tennessee Valley area being vacated by Mary Scott Hunter. Mary Scott and Sam Givhan are battling for an open state Senate seat in Huntsville. This race is one of the best Senate races in the state. Both Givhan and Hunter are heirs to great Alabama legacies. Givhan’s grandfather was legendary Black Belt State Senator Walter Givhan. Ms. Hunter’s daddy, Scott Hunter, is one of Bear Bryant’s famous quarterbacks. Speaking of legends, Alabama political icon, Milton McGregor, was laid to rest a few weeks ago. He would have been 79 today. Montgomery’s Frazer Memorial Methodist Church was overflowing. A good many of the state’s past and present political powers were there, including several past governors and a sitting U.S. Senator. One of the state’s most famous and personable preachers, John Ed Mathison, presented a masterful sermon. He is a great man. He and his wife were best friends with Milton and Pat. It was actually a joyous political homecoming event. As folks were visiting and reminiscing, one of Alabama’s most prominent pulmonary physicians, Dr. David Thrasher, who has been a doctor to many famous Alabamians and was one of Milton’s pallbearers was visiting with me and said, “Steve, I was at Governor Wallace’s funeral when Franklin Graham spoke and it doesn’t compare to this.” Then he quipped, “Steve, I got a call from Billy Graham. He said that he had met a nice guy at breakfast by the name of Milton McGregor. Milton said to tell John Ed to remind the people down here that if they did good and believed in Jesus that they could be a winner too and join him.” That’s what John Ed said. See you next week. ••• Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
Steve Flowers: Court of Appeals races on ballot this year
Last week we made you aware that five of the nine seats on our State Supreme Court are up for election this year. In addition, our Court of Civil Appeals and Criminal Appeals have several members up for election. The folks who sit on these courts essentially have zero name identification.Even when polling is done soon after Alabamians have voted for them, Alabama voters still cannot identify them. These courts do just what their name implies. They hear appeals from civil and criminal cases from around the state and are a barrier or gatekeeper between the circuit or trial courts around the state. They deflect a lot of cases from getting to the Supreme Court. Most states have these appellate courts. They are similar and derived from the federal appellate courts. Alabama is in the minority of states that elect our judges. All of our judges in Alabama are elected, not only the Supreme and Appellate Court jurists, but also our local Circuit and District Judges. Judges in most states are appointed – usually by the governor. The crafters of our 1901 Constitution gave the people the right to vote on judges, which was one of the deference’s from having a powerful governor. There are nine seats on the State Supreme Court and five seats each on the Court of Civil and Criminal Appeals. All 19 of our state court seats are held by Republicans, which is reflective of our state’s political leanings. As would be suspected with all Republicans, they tend to be conservative. Our Court of Civil Appeals leans pro-business, and our Court of Criminal Appeals tends to favor prosecutors over defendants. However, our current Court of Criminal Appeals has a very glaring exception due to the obvious inexplicable length in their handing down an opinion on the conviction of former Speaker, Mike Hubbard. In almost all cases heard by the Court of Criminal Appeals, they render an opinion upholding a conviction by a local jury. The only exception is when there is an egregious overt error in jury instructions or overt documented prejudice by a Circuit Judge. Folks, I watched and followed the Mike Hubbard case. Judge Walker, a highly respected and veteran experienced Lee County Circuit Judge did a meticulous job in that trial. A 12 person jury convicted Mike Hubbard of Ethics Law violations. There was no error in protocol or one shred of evidence that was not presented. It was a lengthy trial. Hubbard had his day in court. A jury of his Lee County peers found him guilty. Judge Walker, in order to avoid error, read the instructions to the jury to assure that proper language was unmistakable. As I travel the state on Speaking engagements and Talk shows, invariably the first question asked by Rotarians or callers is, “Why hasn’t Mike Hubbard gone to jail?.” They ask a pertinent question. They suspect foul play or political deference may be at play. It would appear that that might be the case. Hubbard was convicted almost two years ago. The Court of Criminal Appeals usually rules on an intricate murder trial in less than a year. Yet, Hubbard remains free on Appeal. The average Alabamian is perplexed by the delay. I suspect politics is at play in this case. It may revolve around campaign contributions to judicial candidates. The members of the State Court of Criminal Appeals are Liles Burke, Mary Windom, Beth Kellum, Sam Welch and Mike Joiner. There are several newcomers in the June Primary. The list includes running for three open seats; Richard Minor, Donna Beaulieu, Bill Cole, Rich Anderson and veteran Fayette County District Attorney, Chris McCool. We also have some races on the Court of Civil Appeals next month. The business community is obviously more interested in this Civil Appeals Court than Criminal.In place 1, Baldwin County Circuit Judge Michelle Thomasson may have an edge over Pat Thetford of Birmingham and Christy Edwards of Montgomery. Incumbent Judge Terri Willingham Thomas is being challenged by Chad Hanson for Place 2. There are a lot of judicial races on our June 5 ballot on both the state and local level. See you next week. ••• Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the State Legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
Steve Flowers: Supreme Court races on ballot this year
Among the plethora of races on the ballot this year are the important seats on the Alabama Supreme Court. We have an unprecedented five out of nine seats up for election. Our Alabama Supreme Court as well as our Courts of Criminal Appeals are extremely conservative, pro-business and all Republican. This conservatism dates back to the 1980’s and 1990’s. During that two-decade run, the plaintiff lawyers controlled and dominated our State Supreme Court. We were known throughout the country as a Plaintiff’s paradise. It was like a fairytale jackpot justice system. It was not uncommon for ludicrous multimillion dollar verdicts to be upheld daily for all types of cases. We were called Tort Hell by “Time Magazine.” Tort reform became the dominant issue in the Halls of the Legislature. When you have unbridled monetary verdicts coming out of Alabama that gives a plaintiff millions of dollars for having a wreck in a General Motors vehicle, it affects the entire country. General Motors does business in all 50 states. Well the business community throughout the country and in Alabama decided enough was enough. They decided to close down tort hell. They put their money where their mouth was and replaced an all Democratic plaintiff trial lawyer Supreme Court with an all Republican pro-business court. The pendulum has swung completely from left to right. If yesterday’s court was extremely liberal, today’s Alabama Supreme Court is extremely conservative. These five open seats will be held by conservative Republicans when the dust settles at the end of the year and they begin their six-year terms. It is just a matter of which Republican presides and decides the major cases that affect Alabamians. Will Sellers, a very well respected Montgomery attorney, was appointed by Governor Kay Ivey last year to Place 3 on the high court. Justice Sellers is running without opposition and will have a full six-year term. Popular Justice, Tommy Bryan, also has no opposition and will return for another six-years on the high tribunal. Justice Jim Main who has had a distinguished career as a private lawyer, finance director and Supreme Court Justice, cannot run for reelection due to an antiquated law that disallows judges to run for reelection after they turn 70. Main’s Place 2 is being sought by Jefferson County’s John Bahakel and Jay Mitchell, also of Birmingham. Circuit Judge, Debra Jones of Calhoun County has been a judge for a decade and has run a get acquainted race for the court. She will be formidable. This place was held by Justice Glen Murdock who is originally from the Wiregrass. Murdock retired a few months ago and Governor Kay Ivey did a good day’s work when she appointed another Wiregrass native, Brad Mendheim to replace him. Mendheim has served a decade as a Circuit Judge in Dothan. He is very well respected in his hometown. He is seeking a full term. Sarah Stewart of Mobile is also in the race and should benefit from being from the vote rich Mobile-Baldwin area. The battle royale will be for the Chief Justice post. The Chief Justice not only presides over the nine member Supreme Court but also oversees the entire Court System. Justice Lyn Stuart currently presides as Chief Justice. She is running for a full 6-year reign. When the business community orchestrated the takeover of the Court, they brought in the vaunted Karl Rove to mastermind the plan. When he departed, victoriously, he left with this admonition, “The best candidate that you can put forward is a female Republican who has some experience as a Circuit Judge.” Alabamians prefer females on the Bench. If you have a race for Judge in Alabama and you have two names on the ballot, one Sue Smith and one Sam Smith and neither spends any money on campaigns and neither is known, Sue Smith will win. Lyn Stuart epitomizes this scenario perfectly. She became a respected Circuit Judge in Baldwin County at a very young age. She was elected to the Supreme Court over a decade ago and is the longest serving member of the Court. She will be pitted against another sitting member of the Court, Justice Tom Parker. He has excellent polling numbers. He was Roy Moore’s closest ally on the Court. Stuart is the sweetheart of the Business Council. Parker is the darling of the social conservatives. The race for Chief Justice will be one of the premier contests this year. See you next week. ••• Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. She may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
Steve Flowers: Those who have the gold set the rules
Our antiquated 1901 Constitution was designed to give inordinate power to the Legislature. During the Wallace years, the King of Alabama politics, George Wallace, usurped this power and controlled the Legislature from the Executive Branch of Government. Over the last couple of decades the Legislature has wrestled this power back and pretty much excluded the Governor from their bailiwick. Governors Bob Riley and Robert Bentley were ostracized and pretty much ignored. Their proposed budgets were instantaneously tossed into the nearest trashcan. Legislative power is derived from controlling the state’s purse strings. Thus the old adage, “Those who have the gold set the rules.” The Legislature has gotten like Congress in that incumbents are difficult to defeat. Therefore, the interest will be on the open Senate and House seats. Most of the Montgomery Special Interest money will be focused on these Legislative races. Speaking of Montgomery, two open and most interesting Senate seats in the state will be in the Montgomery/River Region. One is currently in progress. Montgomery City Councilman, David Burkette, Representative John Knight and Councilman Fred Bell are pursuing the Democratic seat vacated by Senator Quinton Ross when he left to become President of Alabama State University. Burkette has already bested Knight and Bell in a Special Election last month. A rebound race is set for June 5. The Republican Senate seat in the River Region held by Senator Dick Brewbaker is up for grabs. This seat was expected to attract numerous well-known aspirants. However, when the dust settled at the qualifying deadline two relatively unknown candidates were the only ones to qualify. Will Barfoot and Ronda Walker are pitted against each other in a race that is considered a tossup. The Etowah County/Gadsden area was considered one of the most Democratic areas of the state for generations. However, in recent years it has become one of the most Republican. State Representative, Mack Butler, should be favored as a Republican. Although, polling indicates that veteran Democratic Representative, Craig Ford, could make this a competitive race in the Fall. He is running as an Independent. Veteran State Senator Harri Ann Smith has represented the Wiregrass/Dothan area admirably for over two decades. She has been elected several times as an Independent. However, she has decided not to seek reelection. Her exit leaves State Representative Donnie Chesteen in the catbird seat to capture the seat. Republican State Senator Paul Bussman, who represents Cullman and northwest Alabama, is a maverick and very independent. This independence makes him powerful. He will be reelected easily. State Representative David Sessions is predicted to win the seat of Senator Bill Hightower who is running for Governor. Most of the state Senate’s most powerful members are unopposed or have token opposition. Included in this list of incumbent State Senators are veteran Senate leader and Rules Chairman, Jabo Waggoner, R-Vestavia, Senate President, Del Marsh, R-Calhoun, Senate Majority Leader, Greg Reed, R-Jasper, veteran Senator Jimmy Holley, R-Coffee, as well as Senate leaders Arthur Orr, R-Decatur, Cam Ward, R-Alabaster, Clay Scofield, R-Marshall, Clyde Chambliss, R-Autauga, Steve Livingston, R-Scottsboro, Tom Whatley, R-Lee, and Shay Shelnutt, R-Gardendale. The Senate leadership will remain intact, as will the House leadership. Almost all of the House leaders are unopposed or have token opposition. This prominent list includes: Speaker Mac McCutcheon, R-Madison, Budget Chairmen, Steve Clouse, R-Ozark, Bill Poole, R-Tuscaloosa, Speaker Pro-tem, Victor Gaston, R- Mobile, Rules Chairman, Mike Jones, R-Covington. In addition, there are numerous Veteran lawmakers, who will be reelected, including Lynn Greer, Mike Ball, Jim Carnes, Howard Sanderford, Kerry Rich, and Jimmy Martin; as well as rising leaders: Nathaniel Ledbetter, Kyle South, Connie Rowe, Tim Wadsworth, April Weaver, Paul Lee, Terri Collins, Danny Garrett, Dickie Drake, Chris Pringle, Randall Shedd, Allen Farley, Becky Nordgren, Mike Holmes, David Standridge, Dimitri Polizos, Reed Ingram and Chris Sells. Even though there are 22 open House seats and 10 open Senate Seats, the leadership of both Chambers will remain the same. There are some competitive House seats that will be interesting. In the Pike/Dale County Seat 89, Pike Probate Judge Wes Allen is pitted against Troy City Council President Marcus Paramore. Tracy Estes is favored to replace retiring Mike Millican in Marion County. Alfa is going all out for Estes. David Wheeler is expected to capture the open House seat in Vestavia. See you next week. ••• Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
Steve Flowers: a closer look at our current congressional delegation
There are dramatic differences between our congressional delegation of the 1940’s-1960’s and our group on the Potomac today. Obviously, their partisan badges have changed, as have Alabamians. There is also a tremendous difference in power and seniority of that era versus today’s group. That bygone era of Alabama congressmen were very progressive New Deal Democrats; whereas, our delegation today is one of the most conservative in America. Their paths to Congress were also very different. It was as though the earlier folks had been born to be in Congress. They all went to the University of Alabama for college and law school, went off to fight in the World War, came back to their hometown to practice law for a short while before going off to Congress for a 20-30 year tenure of “Going Along to Get Along.” Today’s delegation seems to have gotten there by accident. Of the seven, two went to Duke, one to Harvard, one to New York University, one to Birmingham Southern, one to Jacksonville State, and one to the University of Alabama. Six of the seven have law degrees, which is the only similarity to the bygone era. As we look toward next year’s election, let’s take a look at our current congressional delegates since all are on the ballot this year. Congressmen run every two years but seldom lose. Once you get to Washington the power of incumbency is tremendous. All of the Washington special interest money gravitates to incumbents. First district congressman, Bradley Bryne, is a Republican who was born and raised in Baldwin County in the heart of the traditional first district. This district is primarily a Baldwin and Mobile seat. Historically it has had great congressmen. Frank Boykin, Jack Edwards, Sonny Callahan, and Jo Bonner have more than aptly represented them over the past 80 years. Byrne is a lawyer by profession. He graduated from Duke undergraduate and University of Alabama Law School. He served five years in the Alabama State Senate before becoming chancellor of the State Community College System where he served several years. He ran for governor in 2010 and led the first primary, but lost to Robert Bentley in the runoff. He won a Special Election to Congress in December of 2013. He has taken to Congress like a duck to water. He is 62 and serves on the Armed Services and Rules Committees. He will win reelection to a third term this year. Second District Congresswoman, Martha Roby, is the only seat in play this year. She is vulnerable. Roby made a terrible mistake by saying that she was not going to vote for the Republican nominee, Donald Trump, last year. The backlash was dramatic. She is being challenged by three significant GOP opponents. Former Montgomery Mayor and Congressman, Bobby Bright, will be tough. State Representative, Barry Moore, of Enterprise chose to challenge Roby rather than seek reelection to the Legislature. He has been running against Roby for over a year. Rich Hobson is Roy Moore’s chief ally. He will be the heir apparent to Judge Moore’s Wiregrass organization. Bright, Moore and Hobson were all born and raised in the Wiregrass. Third district congressman, Mike Rogers, R-Anniston, is building some seniority and will be a safe bet for reelection. At the end of this term, he will have 16-years seniority. He serves on the Armed Services and Agriculture Committees where he is building power. The crown jewel of our congressional delegation is Robert Aderholt, R-Haleyville. Aderholt got to Congress at 30 years old and has 22 years of seniority. He is only 52 and is a ranking member of the Appropriations Committee. He will be reelected to a 12th term next year. Congressman Mo Brooks ran a very good race for the U.S. Senate last year. He will probably run again in 2020 against Democrat Doug Jones. He will be reelected to his Congressional seat this year, and get ready for another Senate run. Sixth district Birmingham Congressman, Gary Palmer, will win reelection to his suburban Jefferson/Shelby Republican seat. He is unopposed for a third term. Our only Democratic Congressperson is a Harvard educated lady. Terri Sewell is a lawyer, who had a successful law practice in Birmingham before being elected to Congress from the Seventh District eight years ago. The Selma native is on a fast track in Washington. She will go back for another two-year term. See you next week. ••• Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
Steve Flowers: Incumbency is a powerful advantage in the state legislature
Republicans took control of federal offices and presidential races in 1964 in Alabama. It was referred to as the Goldwater Landslide. The Baxley-Graddick fiasco in 1986 was the game changer for governor. In the last 32 years there have been eight governor’s races. Republicans have won all of them, with one exception. Don Siegelman was an interloper in 1998. During that same period, Alabamians have elected all Republicans to every secondary, statewide office. There are six secondary constitutional offices. All six are held by Republicans. There are nine justices on the State Supreme Court. There are also 10 judges on the Civil and Criminal Courts of Appeals. These 19 judges are all Republicans. If you add the three seats on the PSC to this list and include the Governor, that is 29 state offices. All 29 are held by Republicans. In addition, we have seven seats in Congress. Six-out-of-seven of our Congressional members are Republicans. Folks, that makes us a pretty Republican state. However, inexplicably it was only eight years ago in 2010 that our state legislature changed from Democratic controlled to majority Republican. When it changed it really changed drastically. The final coup de gras was probably caused by the National Democrats electing Barack Obama president. As I sat on television analyzing the dramatic results in 2010, it became obvious to me that the seismic avalanche of voting Republican for legislative seats was erupting in North Alabama and especially the Tennessee Valley. This area of the state had continued to elect Democrats to state legislative seats. It was the last bastion of white Democratic voters. This allegiance and loyalty was dating back to FDR and the New Deal. However, the election of Obama changed all that loyalty that these voters and their grandparents had to their longstanding Democratic affinity for local and legislative candidates. The Republican legislative leadership led by former Speaker Mike Hubbard, claimed credit for this Republican tidal wave engulfing and changing the Legislature. They did field good candidates; however, it was Barack Obama that put the final nail in the Democratic coffin in Alabama. Race and religion have always driven the vote in the Heart of Dixie. The southern two-thirds of the state had incrementally begun voting for GOP legislative candidates, especially in suburban districts. However, the northern tier of the state voted Republican with a vengeance, and it looks like they are not turning back. Regardless of the reason our legislature is not only majority Republican, it is super majority Republican. That means that over two-thirds of the members of the State Senate and State House are Republican. The Democrats are buoyed by Doug Jones historic victory in a Special U.S. Senate election in December. They have enthusiastically fielded a large slate of candidates for the Legislature. Democrats believe that Jones’ win in suburban areas, especially Jefferson and Mobile, can be duplicated this year. That is doubtful. The Jones victory was an anomaly and an isolated dislike for Roy Moore. The Republicans will return with their majorities and more than likely their lock on a super majority. Incumbency is a powerful advantage and most of the incumbents are Republicans. A good many of the State Senate’s most powerful members are unopposed for reelection. Included in this list of incumbent State Senators who have been reelected by acclamation are veteran Senate Leader and Rules Chairman, Jabo Waggoner, R-Vestavia, Senate Majority Leader, Greg Reed, R-Jasper, respected veteran Jimmy Holley, R-Coffee, Senator Arthur Orr, R-Decatur, Senator Clay Scofield, R-Marshall, Senator Shay Shelnutt, R-Gardendale, Senator Clyde Chambliss, R-Autauga. Republican Senate leaders, Del Marsh, R-Calhoun, Jim McClendon, R-St. Clair, Steve Livingston, R- Scottsboro, only have taken opposition in the Republican primary and no Democratic opponent. Republican Senators, Cam Ward, R-Alabaster and Tom Whatley, R-Lee, only have token Democratic opponents in very Republican districts. On the Democratic side, veteran State Senators, Rodger Smitherman, Priscilla Dunn, Bobby Singleton, and Billy Beasley are running unopposed. Senator Hank Sanders of Selma, the longest serving member of the Alabama Senate decided to not seek a 10th term. Senator Sanders has become an icon in Alabama political history. He will be replaced by another Democrat, probably his daughter. Longtime Democratic House members Marcel Black, D-Tuscumbia, and Richard Lindsey, D-Centre, are retiring and Johnny Mack Morrow, D-Red Bay, and Craig Ford, D-Gadsden, are leaving the House to run for the Senate. They are the last four white male Democrats in the House of Representatives. That leaves one white Democrat in the House, Elaine Beech, D-Chatom, and there will be one white Democrat in the Senate, Billy Beasley, D-Clayton. These two white Democrats will be dinosaurs in the legislature. See you next week. ••• Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
Steve Flowers: A fun election year – every statewide office is up for grabs
Every constitutional statewide office is up for election this year. Just like the governor’s office you can serve two consecutive four-year terms and then you are through. Kay Ivey would have been term limited as Lt. Governor. She could not have run again for that post even though she ascended to governor last year. Young Boozer has served his two four-year term limit as Treasurer. Young has chosen to not run again for anything. John McMillan has exhausted his eight-years as Agriculture Commissioner. He is running for State Treasurer and is favored to win that post. John Merrill can run for another four-year term as Secretary of State, which is what he is doing. The same is true for State Auditor, Jim Zeigler. The Attorney General’s office was vacated by Luther Strange when then Governor, Robert Bentley, appointed him to Jeff Sessions’ Senate Seat. With the vacancy in the Attorney General’s office, Bentley plucked an obscure former District Attorney named Steve Marshall to serve the remainder of Luther Strange’s term. Marshall is seeking election to a full term. However, he is not expected to fare well in a very competitive race for this coveted post. Marshall’s only claim to fame is that he was appointed to the post by Robert Bentley and that is not a very good calling card. A Republican is favored 60-to-40 in this Attorney General contest. Former Attorney General, Troy King, is the favorite to win the GOP Primary and ultimately a four-year term. Name identification is a precious commodity in these secondary statewide offices. King’s name ID surpasses the rest of the field. Alice Martin could give Troy King a run for his money. She is a veteran well qualified prosecutor who was the U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Alabama for the better part of a decade. Being from North Alabama gives her some invaluable name identification in her hometown of Florence, but more importantly in Birmingham. Chess Bedsole, who is a Birmingham attorney, has roots in Mobile and was an integral part of the Trump campaign, could be a player. He will have to spend a good bit of personal money to get into the mix. The winner of the GOP Primary will be favored. However, they will probably be met by a well-known Democratic name in November. Joseph Siegelman is running for AG as a Democrat. Young Siegelman, who is only 30, will be favored to win the Democratic nomination over another Birmingham Attorney, Chris Christie. The office of Lt. Governor is currently vacant. This post does very little except wait for the Governor to die or be removed from office. Therefore, we have not been devastated by the vacancy. If the Attorney General’s race is dependent upon name identification, the Lt. Governor’s post is doubly reliant on this precious commodity. There are three good people seeking the GOP mantle. PSC President Twinkle Cavanaugh, Mobile State Senator Rusty Glover, and Sand Mountain State Representative Will Ainsworth. Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh is the prohibitive favorite in this race. She is sitting in the catbird’s seat and could win without a runoff. She has run and been elected several times statewide. She has also been head of the State Republican Party and has built a statewide organization. Her statewide name identification dwarfs her two opponents. Will Ainsworth is said to have personal money that he is willing to invest. If he does, he could challenge Twinkle. Ainsworth has received the Farm Bureau endorsement, which is a coup. Anyone who has ever met State Senator Rusty Glover likes him. If he could meet every voter in the state, most would vote for him. However, that would be hard for him to do. The race for Agriculture Commissioner will be a quiet contest. Veteran State Senator Gerald Dial, who has represented East Alabama well for four decades is the favorite. He is facing Lowndesboro Mayor and lifetime farmer, Rick Pate, who garnered the Farm Bureau endorsement. Tracey Crane is a former FBI agent from Jefferson County. He may benefit from being first on the ballot, which is an advantage in down ballot races where none of the candidates are known. John Merrill will easily win reelection as Secretary of State. He is probably the best retail politician in the state and maybe the most popular. Jim Ziegler is running for a second four-year term as State Auditor. He makes it interesting around the Capitol. It will be a fun year. See you next week. ••• Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
New study ranks Alabama 5th worst state for women
With women’s issues on the forefront of nearly every major news source in America today, and March being Women’s History Month, personal finance site WalletHub released a new study on Monday, detailing the Best and Worst States for Women in 2018. Turns out, Alabama is the 5th worst in the nation when it comes to ranking the most women-friendly states. The state came in 47th place in the nation overall, followed only by Oklahoma, Mississippi, Arkansas, and in last place, Louisiana. WalletHub’s study compared all fifty states and the District of Columbia across 23 key indicators including; unemployment rate for women, share of women-owned businesses, High School graduation rate for women, and women’s life expectancy at birth. Woman-friendliness of Alabama (1= best, 25= avg.): 29th: Median earnings for female workers (adjusted for cost of living) 42nd: Unemployment rate for women 46th: Share of women in poverty 26th: Share of women-owned businesses 47th: High school graduation rate for women 41st: Share of women who voted in 2016 presidential election 32nd: Female uninsured rate 50th: Women’s life expectancy at birth 31st: Quality of women’s hospitals 24th: Women’s preventive health care Perhaps one of the reasons for these rankings is the supreme lack of women’s representation in the Alabama Legislature. Although our governor is a female, currently only 15 percent of Alabama legislators are women. “It’s sad that we are 52 percent of the population, but we hold so few state legislative seats,” Birmingham-Democrat Sen. Linda Coleman-Madison, told AL.com. Se is one of the four females occupying a seat in Alabama’s 35 member Senate. With a bevy of women running for state office, if there was ever a year for things to change for women in Alabama, it’s 2018 According to Steve Flowers, the 2018 election year might just be the year of the woman in Alabama politics. “Currently, Kay Ivey is the favorite in the governor’s race. Twinkle is the favorite in the Lt. Governor’s race. Alice Martin or Troy King is favored in the Attorney General’s race. If you made me bet right now, I would bet that Alabama would at least have a governor and Lt. Governor that are women,” opined Flowers. Here’s a look at how Alabama compares to the rest of the country: Source: WalletHub
Steve Flowers: the many possibilities of an election year
The Alabama Legislature usually gets very little done during an election year session except passage of the budgets. However, the Legislature may have to address issues pertaining to prison health care. A Federal judge has ruled that our prison mental health care is “horrendously inadequate.” This year the solution will probably be to simply add $30 to 50 million to the prison budget and kick the can down the road to the next quadrennium. Our Medicaid agency funding is always a key issue. Medicaid now consumes more than a third of the General Fund budget. Using part of the BP Oil spill money will allow legislators to wait until next year to tackle this money eating monster. Mental health or drug addiction issues will probably be pushed back until next year after elections, as will the gasoline tax issue. The gas tax was not been raised since 1992. The state’s gas tax is earmarked for roads and bridges. Business groups, county governments and legislative leaders, especially Speaker Mac McCutcheon and Legislators from Huntsville and other growth areas, are emphasizing the need for adequate transportation infrastructure. The Trump administration is advocating for a national infrastructure initiative. If this comes to fruition in Washington, the state will have to act in order to match federal dollars. The two budgets will not be difficult since both the General Fund and Education budgets are in better shape than normal, especially the Special Education Trust Fund budget. It is dependent on sales and income growth taxes and the economy is growing. Teachers and state employees may receive a cost of living raise. Alabama state employees have not received a cost of living raise since 2009. Speaking of the economy, Alabama has been blessed with two gigantic coups in the past few months. The landing of the new Toyota-Mazda plant near Huntsville was huge. In addition, the decision by the U.S. Defense Department to locate the F-35 lightning aircraft deployment to Maxwell/Gunter in Montgomery will translate into a significant boom to the River Region for years to come. The January announcement that Alabama won the coveted Toyota-Mazda plant was tremendous. We beat out North Carolina for the $1.6 billion facility, which will be located at a Limestone County mega site adjacent to Huntsville. Alabama currently has 57,000 residents employed in the automotive industry. Exports of Alabama made vehicles and parts total over $9 billion. We are now the number two state in America for automotive production. Community College Chancellor Jimmy Baker is moving in the right direction to prepare our young people for these opportunities in the state’s industrial expansion. Huntsville mayor, Tommy Battle, battled mightily for the new automotive facility. He deserves kudos for the victory as does Montgomery mayor, Todd Strange, for landing the F-35 to Maxwell/Gunter. Our senior senator, Richard Shelby, was instrumental in both of these bonanzas behind the scenes. Speaking of the legislature and their adjourning early for an election year, there will be 10 open Senate seats and 22 House seats with no incumbents. One of the most hotly contested state senate races will be in the Huntsville area. It will be an intra-party battle between Sam Givhan and Mary Scott Hunter. It is for the seat currently held by State Senator Bill Holtzclaw, who is not seeking reelection. Ms. Hunter is a State School Board member, who is close to the BCA. Givhan is a lawyer and heads the Huntsville/Madison GOP. He has been endorsed by ALFA. It is fitting and proper that the Alabama Farmers Federation is backing young Sam Givhan. His grandfather was the legendary State Senator, Walter Givhan, who was a Black Belt planter and stalwart ally of the farmers. State Representative, Mack Butler, is favored to win the Republican Gadsden area seat of retiring Senator Phil Williams. The Wiregrass will see a battle royale between State Representative Donnie Chesteen and incumbent State Senator Harri Anne Smith. The open Republican Senate seat of retiring State Senator Dick Brewbaker in Montgomery and Pike Road may be the best senate race in the state. There are numerous powerful and popular incumbents, who will coast to reelection most with no opposition. That list includes Jabo Waggoner, Jimmy Holley, Jim McClendon, Cam Ward, Greg Reed, Steve Livingston, Clay Scofield, Shay Shelnutt, Clyde Chambliss, Billy Beasley, Bobby Singleton, Gerald Allen, Tom Whatley and Senate President, Del Marsh. The leadership of the State Senate will return. See you next week. ••• Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
Steve Flowers: Alabama’s legendary capitol press corps
I have written about the legendary capitol reporters who use to cover Goat Hill. There was Bob Ingram of the Montgomery Advertiser, Al Fox of the Birmingham News, Hugh Sparrow of the Birmingham News, Rex Thomas of the Associated Press, Don Martin of UPI and Clarke Stallworth of the Birmingham Post Herald. A young cub reporter named Jim Bennett joined the Post Herald in 1961 and later had a distinguished career in Public Service. None of these legends is any longer with us. Today’s capitol press corps also works hard, they stick with “just the facts” by conscientious research of their stories and leave out the speculations, “what-ifs”, opinion and political slants. The men and women I knew in the Montgomery press corps then and today, may have personal views, but they all were and are vigilant in their work as professional journalists. They defended the freedom of the press and the right of the public to know the facts and events of public officials, their decisions and actions that will impact education, taxes and the economy. Over the last few years, an ongoing debate has emerged as to whether reporting on political news is still just the responsibility of professional journalists and whether online bloggers can also be a trusted source of news reporting. The contemporary capitol press corps, like their colleagues of a bygone era, work hard to meet their deadlines. These professional reporters put in long hours by getting evenhanded quotes, verify pertinent facts and simply report an issue, controversy, or an event in an evenhanded way. Online bloggers will do the same but add twists of innuendo, supposed behind the scenes reasons, and anonymous inferences. Often the online ‘journalists’ story will present a story but give contorted extraneous, often incendiary, perspectives which have no basis in reality. Some suggest this is done to enhance the number of online “clicks”, make the story more salacious, attack someone’s reputation either directly or indirectly, make it cynical and infer insider deals and corruption – and you will get your clicks! In many cases, stories are published by journalists only to be later “reinterpreted” by online bloggers with an editorial or political agenda. Because of the cynicism and negativity that this new 24/7 online blogging creates, I have heard of many good men and women who would otherwise wish to give back to their communities by serving in public office essentially say – no thanks! They have spent a lifetime building up a good reputation in their communities and businesses. They cannot imagine where a pseudo-journalist, who is trying to build their reputation by the number of online clicks they get, can get away with attacking someone’s reputation in such a careless way. We must make sure that individuals get the news and information they need to be informed, responsible citizens. Those sources can be from journalists, bloggers, and other digital platforms. Let’s be vigilant about the freedom of press whether it is old fashion, hard-nosed journalism or 24/7 blogging. However, let’s also clearly delineate whether it is political opinion and gotcha stories whose sole purpose is to tarnish reputations and add to further public alienation from politics and cynicism. Opinions are great and important to public discourse but see them for what they are – opinions of one – do not try to mask those as ‘facts’. Recently, the Alabama Political Reporter brought the documentary, “Atticus and the Architect”, to the Davis Theatre in Montgomery. A packed house watched the story of former governor, Don Siegelman’s persecution. The film left no doubt that Siegelman was prosecuted for political reasons. Siegelman spent close to ten years in prison, unduly. It is one of the saddest stories I have witnessed in my lifetime of following Alabama politics. The travesty has not gone unnoticed by young potential leaders in the state. I have the opportunity to get to know some brilliant, young Alabamians in my University classes on Alabama and Southern politics. Many of them are political science and prelaw majors. I will inquire as to whether they are interested in pursuing a political career. Most will tell me that they would never seek political office, not even a judgeship. Invariably, they will point to the Siegelman prosecution as one of their reasons for not being a part of the political process. They realize that their lives could be ruined by political persecution. See you next week. ••• Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
