Steve Flowers: Could 2018 be the Year of the Woman in Alabama politics?
This political year of 2018 may very well be the year of the woman in Alabama politics. In Alabama’s 200 year history, only one woman has been elected governor. Lurleen Wallace won in 1966. Only two women have served as governor, Governor Lurleen and our current governor, Kay Ivey. It may be a historic year. Sue Bell Cobb, the former Alabama State Supreme Court Chief Justice, and the first woman to hold that position, is hoping to be able to be the Democratic standard-bearer. She was elected Chief Justice in 2006, in a very expensive, high profiled battle with Republican Drayton Nabors. She had been a District Court Judge in her native Conecuh County for a long time before running statewide. She was elected to a six year term as Chief Justice in 2006, but quit after four years, inexplicably. Cobb, 61, is predicting that it will be an all female gubernatorial showdown. She believes that she will be the Democratic nominee and that Governor Kay Ivey will carry the Republican banner into battle. She says, “That’s never happened and my prediction is that is what it will exactly be.” However, first things first. Judge Cobb has to win the Democratic nomination. She is not the favorite in that primary. Tuscaloosa mayor, Walt Maddox, is the early favorite to win the Democratic nomination. Most political insiders suggest that Maddox is expected to get the overwhelming support of African American voters. The black vote makes up the bulk and majority of Democratic Primary voters in the state. This is no longer a monolithic vote. However, it tends to gravitate to one candidate in a primary. The few white voters who participate in the Democratic primary are young and they can more readily identify with Maddox who is 45. In addition, there is some disillusionment among Democratic voters that Cobb quit her term midway as Chief Justice and allowed Republican Governor Robert Bentley to appoint a replacement. He, of course, appointed a Republican. She was the only Democrat on the Supreme Court. Roy Moore won the seat of Chief Justice in 2012. Other Democratic partisans were dismayed that Cobb said she supported Donald Trump’s selection of Jeff Sessions for Attorney General. It may be perceived that her day has passed. Kay Ivey appeared to be headed for the house and her day may have passed when out of the blue Bentley resigns and she is plucked out of the obscurity of the Lt. Governor’s office and thrust into the governorship. She seems like a grandmother who sticks to her knitting and steadies the Ship of State, which has gone through stormy waters the past four years. Kay Ivey may indeed make it to the dance as the Republican nominee in November. She is in the catbird’s seat and favored to win the GOP Primary. However, she created a couple of stumbling blocks during the 2017 Senate election year that may thwart her reelection. Some GOP establishment stalwarts say that her changing the Senate election from 2018 to 2017 threw Luther Strange, their candidate, under the bus and gave the nomination to Roy Moore, which led to losing the seat to a Democrat. Her move also cost the state’s beleaguered General Fund $10 to $15 million. Some suburban women became disenchanted with her with she said she had no reason to not believe the women who accused Roy Moore of assaulting them as teenagers, yet she was still going to vote for him because he was a Republican. These two actions are only political stumbling blocks, not roadblocks. Therefore, what I see as a possibility is not an all female race for governor, but a possible triumvirate of females being sworn into the top three constitutional offices next January. You could see Kay Ivey sworn into the Governor’s office, Twinkle Cavanaugh sworn in as Lt. Governor, and Alice Martin sworn in as Attorney General. All three are Republicans. The Republican nominee goes into the general election with a 60/40 probability of winning. Currently, Kay Ivey is the favorite in the governor’s race. Twinkle is the favorite in the Lt. Governor’s race. Alice Martin or Troy King is favored in the Attorney General’s race. If you made me bet right now, I would bet that Alabama would at least have a governor and Lt. Governor that are women. That may be the story of the year in Alabama politics in 2018. See you next week. ••• Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
Steve Flowers: Doug Jones victory was a perfect storm that cannot be perfectly replicated
As the 2018 state elections begin, let’s take one last look at the 2017 Special Election to fill the remaining three years of Jeff Sessions’ six-year term which, by the way, comes up in two years in 2020. It is assumed by most astute political observers that the winner, Democrat Doug Jones, cannot win election to a full term in 2020, simply because he is a Democrat. I am not ready to write Doug Jones off so quickly. I would contend that Jones would not be a cupcake to take on after two to three years on the job. Doug Jones knows what he is doing. He is a seasoned political veteran that will hit the ground running in Washington. I submit that he will be a far superior senator for Alabama than Roy Moore. The Ten Commandments Judge’s mission in the Senate would be as an obstructionist and the voice of the ultra right wing zealots of not only Alabama but of the nation. This would not do Alabama any good as far as having a senator who is helpful to the state. In addition, his extreme views and statements, along with the allegations thrown at him during the campaign, made him a horrendous caricature nationwide. We would have been the brunt of ridicule on all late night and daytime news shows for three years. Moore had become not only a joke but also a bad image for the state. We would have actually been better off not to have had a second senate seat if Moore was in it. We would have been better served to have only one senator, Richard Shelby. On the other hand, Senator Doug Jones, will strive to be an effective senator in the mold of Sen. Shelby. He will work with Shelby to bring home the bacon. Sen. Shelby knew this and that is why he refused to vote for Moore. However, Sen. Jones will still have very little wiggle room in preparation for 2020. He will organize with Chuck Schumer, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and all of the very liberal East and West coast senators. He is in the same boat with them on social issues like abortion, immigration, and gay/lesbian and transgender issues. If these issues come to the forefront in the form of Supreme Court nominees, Jones may be caught between a rock and a hard place. If he can avoid these litmus test issues that illuminate the fact that he is a national Democrat from a ruby red Republican state, he could possibly survive, especially if there is a contentious GOP Primary with six or more Republican thoroughbreds wrangling for the opportunity to take Jones out in a 2020 battle royale. This field of proven conservative Republican stalwarts could beat each other up in the primary. Therefore, they arrive at the dance beat up and broke facing Jones who probably has not faced a primary opponent, and is well financed with national Democratic senatorial money, running as an incumbent. The Doug Jones victory was a perfect storm that cannot be perfectly replicated by Democratic gubernatorial aspirants Walt Maddox or Sue Bell Cobb. First of all, the national money will not be available in an Alabama governor’s race, in a year where 33 U.S. Senate races are in play, as it was in last year’s race. We were the only show in the country and you had a polarizing figure to energize the national liberal base. There was also an overwhelming 6-to-1 financial advantage that provided resources to turn out the Democratic base. In addition, probably never again will any party have the opportunity to run against a candidate with a 70 percent negative approval rating, who has no money and runs a modern day 2017 campaign similar to one run in 1954 out of the back of a pickup truck. On the other hand, the Democratic campaign was state of the art. Due to Moore and this being the only senate race in the country, Doug Jones’ campaign was run by the brightest Democratic pollsters and media consultants in the world. They energized millennials and the LGBTQ community to vote in record numbers, along with the amazing unparalleled turnout of African American voters. It was an anomaly and a razor thin victory. However, it shows that it can be done in the “Heart of Dixie.” A Democrat won a statewide race, and a U.S. Senate race at that. It gives credence to a Democratic gubernatorial campaign this year. See you next week. ••• Steve Flowers is Alabama’s premier columnist and commentator, Steve has analyzed Alabama politics for national television audiences on CBS, PBS, ABC and the British Broadcasting Network. Steve has been an up close participant and observer of the Alabama political scene for more than 50 years and is generally considered the ultimate authority on Alabama politics and Alabama political history.
Steve Flowers: Tuscaloosa was once the state capitol, essentially it is again
Awhile back, during Dr. Robert Bentley’s tenure as governor, I wrote a column entitled, “They May as Well Move the Capitol to Tuscaloosa.” Never before in Alabama history has a city had a sitting governor and the state’s senior U.S. Senator hail from that particular place. Even with the departure of Bentley as governor, the Druid City has an inordinate amount of presence in the state’s political sphere of influence. Senator Richard Shelby is in his 32nd year as our U.S. Senator. With that kind of seniority, comes immense power in Washington. Shelby is Chairman of the Senate Rules Committee and is easily one of the three most powerful U.S. Senators. Secretary of State, John Merrill, is from Tuscaloosa. He served in the Legislature prior to winning statewide office. Scott Donaldson serves on the State Court of Appeals. He was a Circuit Judge in Tuscaloosa prior to his move to the state court. Judge John England currently sits on the Bench as a Tuscaloosa Circuit Judge. He has previously served on the State Supreme Court. He is one of the most respected men in the state. Judge England’s son, Chris England, has represented Tuscaloosa in the House of Representatives very effectively for 11-years. Chris is not only a stellar legislator; he is a practicing lawyer and an expert on Alabama football, which he grew up watching. Tuscaloosa County Probate Judge Hardy McCollum has been in his office for over 41 years. He is nearing the end of an unprecedented seventh six-year term. That means that Hardy was first elected in 1976. Over the years, he has generally been considered the most popular political figure in Tuscaloosa County. State senator, Gerald Allen, has been representing his native Tuscaloosa County in the state Legislature for 24-years. He served 16-years in the State House prior to his election to the State Senate eight years ago in 2010. He is considered one of the most conservative members of the State Senate. Some folks believe that this time next year, Tuscaloosa may regain the Governor’s office. Their very popular, 45-year old mayor, Walt Maddox, will likely be the Democratic standard-bearer in the 2018 Governor’s race. Young Mr. Maddox is very popular in his hometown. He has been the historic city’s 36th mayor since 2005, which means he was first elected at the ripe old age of 32. Although not Tuscaloosa’s, there are some influential powers that live nearby and represent them in the Halls of Congress and the State Senate. Congressman Robert Aderholt from Haleyville represents Tuscaloosa as well as outstanding State Senators Greg Reed of Jasper and Bobby Singleton of Greensboro. Lastly but certainly not least, Tuscaloosa lays claim to the most popular and consensus brightest rising star in the Alabama Legislature. State Representative Bill Poole is a crown jewel that Tuscaloosa can be very proud to call their own. Bill Poole is a lawyer by profession. His utmost priority is his devotion to his wife, Nicole, and his three children, Sally, William, and Whitman. The Poole’s are active members of the First Methodist Church of Tuscaloosa. Bill earned his B.S. and Law degrees from the University of Alabama and began his law practice in Tuscaloosa, in 2004. This Republican District 63 encompasses primarily the City and suburbs of Tuscaloosa. Dr. Bentley was the Representative from this District prior to Poole. Tim Parker represented this district prior to Bentley. Poole came to the House with a large group of Republicans in 2010. He immediately became a leader of that group. The entire Legislature quickly recognized his potential. By the end of his first year in 2011, it was evident that Poole was clearly the star of that 34-member class. When you asked every veteran observer of Goat Hill about the class, the first name on the list was Bill Poole. He is liked and respected by members on both sides of the aisle. In only his second term, he became Chairman of the Ways and Means Education Budget Committee. When Mike Hubbard was removed as Speaker, it was a foregone conclusion that Poole was going to be Speaker. He turned down the post because he wanted to be able to spend time with his young family. At 38 the sky is the limit for Poole. However, folks in Tuscaloosa hope he stays put. For a city that is home to the University of Alabama, having the Chairman of the Education Budget Committee is a pretty good coup. Tuscaloosa was once the Capitol. Some would say essentially it is again. In fact preliminary census estimations project that Tuscaloosa will exceed Montgomery in population by 2030. See you next week. ••• Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us
Steve Flowers: Year end tradition — remembering those we’ve lost
At the close of each year, my tradition is to acknowledge the passing away of significant political leaders from the political stage in our beloved state. We lost some icons this year. As I sit in my office writing this yearend column, pictures of two of my favorite friends and legends adorn my walls. The photos of GovernorAlbert Brewer and Congressman Jim Martin look down at me. Both were Christian gentlemen. Governor Brewer passed away last January in Birmingham. He was 88. We had visited over lunch only a few months earlier. Brewer grew up in Decatur, went to public schools and graduated from the University of Alabama and Alabama Law School. He came back home to Morgan County to practice law. He was quickly elected to the House of Representatives in 1954 at the age of 25. Eight years later in 1962, he was elected Speaker of the House. He was only 33-years old, the youngest Speaker in history. Four years later, he beat two state senators without a runoff to win the Lt. Governor’s office. He had been Lt. Governor for less than two years when in May 1968, Governor Lurleen Wallace succumbed to cancer and he became governor. Brewer had a low-key business-like style to the governor’s office that was dramatically different from George Wallace. He was governor for only 33 months, but he left an indelible mark in public policy, primarily in Education and Ethics. He and Wallace clashed in the 1970 governor’s race, which was one of the classic gubernatorial battles in state history. He led Wallace in the first primary, but Wallace overtly played the race card and pulled out a narrow victory in the runoff. Many scholars and historians sadly reflect that Brewer briefly was our “New South” governor. He spent the last three decades of his life teaching law at Samford’s Cumberland Law School. He molded generations of young lawyers in Alabama. My daughter, Ginny, was one of them. He was her mentor and friend up until he passed away. I first met Governor Brewer when I was a teenager. I became a page for him when he was Speaker and continued as his aide when he became Lt. Governor. We remained friends throughout the years. He was a very special gentleman. Jim Martin passed away last month. He was 99 years old. He was a lifetime resident of Gadsden. Jim was one of the fathers of the modern Republican Party in the South. He was one of five Republicans swept into Congress in the 1964 Goldwater landslide. In 1987, Martin became Commissioner of the Alabama Department of Conservation and Natural Resources. As commissioner, Martin helped create the Forever Wild Land preservation program. Jim Martin was a special gentleman. Cullman County has been home to an inordinate number of legendary Alabama political leaders and icons. One of these was Tom Drake. Tom passed away in his beloved Cullman County in February at age 86. He represented the Cullman area for 36 years in the Alabama Legislature. He served as Speaker of the House of Representatives during Wallace’s last term, 1982-1986. That was my first term in the House. I voted for and supported Tom for Speaker. He was one of George Wallace’s closest and most loyal allies. Tom was also one of Bear Bryant’s favorites. He coached for Bryant, was an All American wrestler at Alabama, and later wrestled professionally. He was a lawyer by profession and he came from the old school. If he shook your hand and gave you his word, you could take it to the bank. He was a loyal and trusted friend. Another legendary Speaker of the Alabama House of Representatives, Joe McCorquodale, died in April at age 96. Mr. McCorquodale was one of the most powerful and respected men to ever serve in the legislature in Alabama history. He served 24 yeas in the House from 1958-1982. He was Speaker of the House his last eight years, 1974-1982. He was a successful businessman. He was in the timber and insurance business. He lived his entire life in his beloved Clarke County. The Clarke County Democrat publisher, Jim Cox, a lifetime friend of Mr. McCorquodale, said he went to his office every day up until his death. McCorquodale gave current governor, Kay Ivey, her first job in state government. As Speaker, he made Kay the Reading Clerk in the House. We lost some icons this year. Happy New Year, see you next week. ••• Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us
Steve Flowers: The 2017 political year was Moore exciting than expected
Well, folks, we have had a more exciting and fun filled political year than we expected. Usually, most of the fun is reserved for even numbered years when presidential or gubernatorial elections are held. However, it’s been a good ride. Obviously, the Special Election for the remaining three years of Jeff Sessions’ senate term monopolized the year. Although you will have to remember, that election was preceded by two events that set up the senate race. Donald Trump selected Jeff Sessions to be Attorney General. Sessions had been our junior senator for 20 years. He was elected to his fourth 6-year term in 2014. Therefore, the seat we just voted on comes up again in 2020. Believe me there are probably a dozen viable Republican thoroughbreds who have already decided they are interested and are chomping at the bit to run. However, most of them have statewide or congressional reelection plans to get out of the way in next year’s 2018 elections. Remember good ole Governor Robert Bentley? It may seem like a long time ago but Bentley was our governor this time last year. His romantic obsession with his personal advisor was about to drive him from his office. However, he had a golden opportunity to appoint Jeff Sessions’ replacement until an election could be held. He appointed Attorney General Luther Strange. Well ole Bentley leaves office with two years left in his term and in steps Kay Ivey, who has been in the obscure office of Lt. Governor for six-years. She takes the reigns of state government and the first thing she does is throw Luther under the bus and change the election from 2018 to this year. If Luther had been given a year for people to forget the appointment by Bentley and been able to run when every other race was on the ballot in 2018, and spend $15 million from the Washington establishment PACs, he would have won the seat for 6-years and the rest of his life. Senator Richard Shelby would have been happy with his new colleague and Jeff Sessions would have been pleased with his successor. Our Ten Commandments Judge Roy Moore was poised and ready to go to the senate. The Judicial Inquiry Commission had removed him from the bench for being against gay marriage. The decision for Moore was easy. He had nothing else to do. It was like putting Brer Rabbit in the briar patch. The first poll and the last poll revealed the book on Moore. It was written. He had a hardcore 30-percent of the vote in Alabama made up of right wing, hardcore, evangelical Alabama folks. This 30-percent would vote for him come Hell or high water; and they did. However, that same polling also revealed that there remains 70-percent that will not vote for him under any circumstance. The reason he lost was that a good portion of that 70-percent showed up to vote. Surprisingly, the belief by many was that this 70-percent would not vote. His 30-percent was going to vote and they did. That’s why he won the primary, his 30-percent are more ardent religious and quite frankly older. They vote. On the other hand, a good many of the Roy Moore detractors are younger and darker. African American voters, young and old, turned out in massive, inexplicably amazing unprecedented numbers and voted against Roy Moore and Donald Trump. It was a tidal wave that was enormous and it sent Roy Moore to a watery grave. As a good many of the state’s newspapers headlines declared, “No Moore.” This race classically underlines and illustrates the undeniable political truism that more people vote against someone than vote for someone. Merry Christmas and see you next week. ••• Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
Steve Flowers: Turnout is key, Roy Moore likely to defeat Doug Jones
The final vote for the remaining three years of Jeff Sessions six-year term in the U.S. Senate will be next Tuesday. The race is between Democrat Doug Jones and Republican Roy Moore. Jeff Sessions is probably sorry he left his safe Senate seat of 20-years to be at the Justice Department in a tentative position with constant ridicule from an irrational, egomaniac as president. It would be highly unlikely that a Democrat could beat a Republican for a U.S. Senate Seat in the Heart of Dixie. We are one of the most reliably Republican states in America, especially when it comes to federal offices. However, this is a special election and not a normal election. That means you have to really want to go vote for either Jones or Moore in the middle of Christmas Season. Most folks particularly 25-45 year olds could not care less who is our Junior U.S. Senator. That group of folks is more interested in how they are going to make their mortgage payment, what they are going to have for supper, and whether their kid got to their soccer game. Therefore, the question is who has the most ardent, fervent, and dedicated followers. Without question, that is Roy Moore the “Ten Commandments Judge.” Polls have consistently shown that 30-percent of Alabamians will vote for Roy Moore come hell or high water and 70-percent will not vote for him under any circumstances. A poll is a picture of the entire electorate. The final poll and the only one that counts is the one where they count the votes of the folks that showed up to vote on Election Day. That poll favors Roy Moore. His followers will show up to vote. They are dedicated to Moore and they are dedicated to voting. They are also older and older people vote with more propensity than younger voters. In addition, white voters vote at a higher percentage than black voters. Our state is essentially divided by racial lines. Most Democratic voters are black and most Republican voters are white. It’s that simple. Politics and political races are about numbers. As a boy, I would spend time with my old veteran Probate Judge. He had been Probate Judge of my county for 30-years, a State Senator, and Sheriff prior to his becoming King of the County. He would give me the very boring task of studying voting returns of boxes in the county. He would say the first lesson of politics is to learn how to count. In the first Republican primary there were 425,000 votes cast in the Senate race. On the other hand, there were 165,000 Democratic votes cast. Moore got over 200,000 votes in the GOP runoff against Luther Strange. Undoubtedly, Moore is a very polarizing figure. Like George Wallace, either you like him or you do not. More sophisticated, urbane voters in the state detest Moore and they will not vote for him. About the time of the Strange vs. Moore runoff contest, a friend of mine hosted a book signing party for me in his Mountain Brook home. There were about 50 upscale Jefferson County people at the event. Almost every one of them came up to me and told me that they were Republicans, but if Roy Moore is the GOP nominee, they will vote for Doug Jones. Indeed, you can drive through upscale neighborhoods of Jefferson County, especially Mountain Brook, Vestavia and Homewood and you will see Doug Jones signs in practically every yard. You can see this same scenario in upscale enclaves of Huntsville, Mobile, and Montgomery. However, be reminded that George Wallace never carried Mountain Brook. The folks in the barbershops and beauty parlors in Opp, Oxford, and Rainbow City elect our governors and senators. Doug Jones is running an excellent campaign. He is a good candidate. However, he is very much out of the mainstream of the majority of Alabama voters, especially on social issues when it comes to guns, abortion, immigration, gay marriage, and transgenders in a weakened military. He is a real national Democrat and he does not shy away from his liberal positions. There is no difference between Doug Jones and Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton or Nancy Pelosi. He is proud of his stance. He could run for Senator of California and be in the mainstream and probably be elected. However, not in the Heart of Dixie. Doug Jones may get close, but close only counts in horseshoes. My guess is that the white voter who attends an evangelical mega church in Gardendale is more likely to vote on Tuesday than a black voter in North Birmingham. We will see. Turnout is the key. See you next week. ••• Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
Steve Flowers: An exciting time for Alabama community Colleges
In March of this year, the Alabama Community College System took a giant leap forward when it brought on a giant in state government and one of Alabama’s preeminent leaders, Jimmy Baker, to be Chancellor. When you have a conversation with Chancellor Baker, he uses words that you do not normally hear in the same sentence, like exciting and community college. He says it is an exciting time. For a myriad of reasons, across the state, community colleges and technical training have been viewed as second best when it comes to higher education options. Sit down with Chancellor Baker and you will leave convinced that Alabama’s community colleges can do more to move the state forward than any other entity in the state. For an institution that in the past had a history of caring a lot about buildings, he is singularly focused on doing what is in the best interest of students. To him, that means an open door policy at every college across the system. Anyone looking to better themselves should be able to walk in the door and find opportunity at their local community college. For some that opportunity looks like core academic coursework to transfer to a four-year or advanced degree at a fraction of the cost. For others that means stackable credentials and skills training to leave the classroom and step directly into a career. It could also mean general literacy and workforce skills or specific job training for a specific industry. The paths are as varied as the student population, which ranges from high school students participating in dual enrollment classes to adult learners who are seeking to advance their careers and everything in between. The Alabama Community College System consists of 24 community and technical colleges residing in each of the state’s urban centers as well as rural locales across the state. Additionally, extensive workforce development training for Alabama business and industry through the Alabama Technology Network also resides within the system. Baker argues that the system’s reach across the state and each college’s connection with their local community makes them the most adaptable, allowing each college to made adjustments based on the needs of their service area. Imagine if this were the case in every community: a new auto manufacturer announces 200 jobs in Anytown, Alabama and the local Anytown Community College is already working to adapt courses and training to ensure the workforce is ready. Anyone familiar with Alabama realizes the dramatic change in the economy over the past half-century. Entire industries have disappeared, replaced with new technology based careers requiring a different knowledge base. The System is committed to being part of the solution. Baker knows that means being honest with students about opportunities that are available and the education, skills, and training needed to secure them. The Alabama Department of Labor estimates that there are more than 14,000 industrial manufacturing and transportation job openings each year. The Alabama Community College System is addressing the issue head-on by partnering with the state to provide two certification programs that upon completion translate into a job in manufacturing or production. Alabama is the first state in the nation to roll out these certifications statewide. The System also made headlines when it was selected as one of only six community colleges systems in the entire country by Apple, Inc. to launch a new app-development curriculum. Students who participate in the courses will learn coding and app development with Apple’s Swift programming language, preparing them for a wide variety of careers in our ever-increasing technology driven economy. While workforce training is a key mission of the ACCS, equal to its focus is to provide Alabama students with the academic coursework they need to be successful. A great number of students come to the community college to take coursework to prepare them to transition to a four-year institution. These students are receiving the same quality of coursework and instruction as they would at other institutions but with smaller class sizes and less cost. Over the past several years, thanks to support from the Alabama Legislature, dual enrollment has continued to expand across the state. Students can take courses and receive both high school and college credit. In many instances, scholarships or grant funds are provided so students are afforded this opportunity at no cost to them. Students who participate will not only graduate high school with college credits under their belt but they will also be more prepared for the rigors of college having already experienced a college classroom. See you next week. ••• Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
Steve Flowers: Alabama’s Silver Haired Legislature to convene next week
With all the changes and uncertainty surrounding Alabama government in recent months, including political appointments, high level resignations, special elections, runoff elections and a host of new candidates tossing their names into the 2018 election circus, Alabamians might be relieved to know one thing remains steady and solid and many may never have heard of it – Alabama’s Silver Haired Legislature is one of Alabama’s crown jewels. This illustrious and distinguished array of Alabama’s senior leaders will convene in Montgomery next week. This elected body of 105 members will meet to discuss issues related to seniors but in some cases, they may have positive impacts on the State in general. Alabama’s Silver Haired Legislature has met now for 24-years. They have had a significant impact on Alabama Public Policy. The idea of a body to represent seniors has been around the nation since 1973. Most states now have a Silver Haired Legislature. The idea of a senior legislative institution was created to educate older Americans about issues of local, state, and national concern. The purpose is to insure that all 105 legislative districts have a senior legislator to mirror and provide some liaison with our 105 regular state legislators, assist them, and keep them apprised of senior issues that affect their constituents. The Silver legislators serve as conduits between the state’s area agencies on aging, Senior Centers, nutritional centers and generally being the eyes and ears of seniors related to finances, education, recreation, health and wellness. Unlike the regular legislature, the Silver Hairs body is unicameral and nonpartisan. They are from all parts of the state. The age requirement is that one must be over age 60. They pass resolutions, not bills. Their nonpartisanship makes for a much more effective and harmonious legislative session than our regular legislature. Many of these senior legislators have historically been an extremely experienced collection of retired state employees, educators, business people, judges, former legislators, mayors, and public servants. Many have been involved with governance at all levels. Alabama is an aging state. By 2030 those age 60 and above will represent 27 percent of Alabama’s population. It is often overlooked, but this age shift is evolving. Currently it is estimated that nearly 20 percent of Alabama’s population is over 60. The fastest growing segment of our state’s population is our folks 70-85. Projections are at the next census one of every five Alabamians will be over 65. Therefore, it is apropos that we have a senior legislature of over 60 year olds looking after their interests. They were at the forefront and subsequently were the reason that an Elder Abuse Statue was passed in the state. They were the first to address the issue of texting and driving. Legislation came out of that resolution. They have impacted the Medicaid budgeting problems and nursing home enhancements and regulations. They were the first to bring attention to the predatory payday lending business. They brought about public transportation for senior citizens who live in rural areas and small municipalities. They have sought assistance to better fund all Department of Senior Services. Their current leadership is stellar. The Speaker of the House is Steve Griffin of Tuscaloosa. Winston Griggs of Headland is Speaker Pro Tem. George Boswell of Wetumpka is Secretary. Sandra Harris of Alexander City is treasurer. Other leaders who serve on the board and are legislative leaders are Mary Jo Martin of Demopolis, Dean McCormack of Tuscumbia, Warner Floyd of Montgomery, Homer Homan of Brundidge, Selena Daniel of Opelika, Carol Oden of Vinemont and Ann Holman of Dothan. While much of the focus is on the younger generation, it will be those that have helped build the state who are quietly listening to the issues and helping plan the trajectory of state programs and politics who may actually have the loudest input at the ballot box and in helping shape the legislation that insures that Alabama remembers the needs of its seniors along with all of its citizens. See you next week. ••• Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
Steve Flowers: Birmingham election recap and the impact of Pat Dye
There have been quite a few political happenings in the Heart of Dixie during October. Birmingham has elected a new mayor. 36-year-old Randall Woodfin defeated two-term mayor William Bell. I never got to know Bell that well; however, the few times I visited with him he seemed to be an affable fellow. He surely looked like a mayor. His distinguished demeanor and exquisite diction and appearance gave an elegant impression for Birmingham. He looked like he came out of Hollywood central casting. Woodfin beat Bell the old-fashioned way. He went door-to-door with shoe leather and diligence. He met most of Birmingham’s voters one-on-one and it paid off. He beat Bell convincingly, 58 to 41. At 36 Woodfin will be the youngest Birmingham mayor in modern history. In addition to changing mayors, Birmingham voters also ousted two longtime city council leaders, Johnathan Austin and Kim Rafferty. Austin was City Council President. Alabama State University did a good days work when they selected State Senator Quinton Ross as their new president. Senator Ross is a gentleman of impeccable character and ability. Ross has served 15-years in the Alabama Senate with distinction. He is very well respected among his colleagues on both sides of the aisle. Even though being in the Democratic minority in the Senate, he has been able to work with the Republican majority to get an immense amount of things accomplished for his Montgomery district. His legislative and governmental experience will be invaluable in unlocking fundraising doors for the university. Quinton Ross is an educator by profession with undergraduate and graduate degrees from his beloved Alabama State. He grew up in Montgomery, went to public schools and then continued his education degrees in his hometown. He is only 48-years old. He can build quite a legacy at Alabama State. He has the proper pedigree and love for his alma mater to make his tenure special. The legendary coach, Pat Dye, worked diligently on behalf of Roy Moore in the U.S. Senate race. It did not hurt Moore any. Coach Dye is an icon in Alabama. He is a man’s man. I love to visit with him. Even though he grew up on a farm in Georgia, he is a true Alabamian through and through. He reminds me some of our great folksy senator, Howell Heflin. Heflin was a true Alabamian. However, his daddy was a Methodist minister. As you may know, Methodist ministers are moved often. His daddy was serving a stint in Georgia when Heflin was born. Judge Heflin was always a little embarrassed by this fact being as he was a U.S. Senator from Alabama. He would often say that his daddy was doing missionary work among the heathen. Pat Dye grew up in Georgia and was an All American guard for the University of Georgia Bulldogs. He became a coach for Bear Bryant 45 years ago. He became Bryant’s most renowned recruiter. He was the mainstay of Bryant’s last decade. His recruiting was relentless. He learned every corner of the state. When Alabama took the field for the national championship game against Notre Dame in 1973, 24 of the 72 players were signed by Dye. He went on to become one of Auburn’s greatest coaches. His decade at the helm was some of Auburn’s glory years. He enjoys his life on his magnificent farm in East Alabama. He spends most of his time on his land hunting and fishing. However, he has gotten riled up about the fact that Alabama is losing an immense amount of money to our neighboring states of Georgia, Mississippi, and Tennessee because the powers that be will not let Alabamians vote on a lottery. Those powers that be are the Indian/Las Vegas gambling interests that want to continue to buy control of certain political offices that will allow them to continue their monopoly. Our interim acting Attorney General, Steve Marshall, has shown his hand. Marshall, even though totally unknown, is running for a full term. The gambling interests have put their money on him. He has done their bidding and has filed suit against the Alabama owned casinos to allow his new bosses, the Indian gambling casinos, a monopoly. You will be able to follow the money in the AG race. You can bet your bottom dollar that Pat Dye will be against Marshall. The Indian Gambling syndicate needs to hedge their bet. Marshall will not win that race. Alabamians will know that the gambling syndicate backs this unknown charlatan and his claim to the office was that he was Robert Bentley’s appointee. See you next week ••• Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
Steve Flowers: the Titanic battle to fill Jeff Sessions Senate seat
The very interesting and entertaining Republican Primary for our open U.S. Senate seat culminates this Tuesday with the clash between two Titans. Judge Roy Moore and Big Luther Strange will be in a Titanic battle to fill the seat left vacant when Jeff Sessions became U.S. Attorney General. We will see if Moses with his Ten Commandments and Hebrew children of rural Alabama can slay the Philistine Mountain Brook giant. The results from the August 15 first primary were predictable. The turnout was about 18 percent, about what you would expect for a Special Election in mid-August, during 100-degree dog days of summer and one race on the ballot. Moore garnered 39 percent, Strange had 33 percent, and Mo Brooks received a respectable 18 percent. The early polling and constant polling revealed that Roy Moore had a hard-core 30 percent of the electorate. It was and still is a solid block of voters that are going to vote for Moore come hell or high water. Those of us that know politics knew that Moore’s 30 percent would become accentuated and would grow to 40 percent with a low voter turnout. That is exactly what happened. The final poll and the only one that counts is the count of those that show up to vote. Older people vote and Moore’s supporters are more ardent, dedicated, and older. They showed up and voted. They will again on Tuesday. Turnout is as critical as it was on August 15. Therefore, Luther Strange’s path to victory is narrow. The Roy Moore popularity and hard-core support is a phenomenon and anomaly in this day and time in politics. It is very similar to George Wallace’s appeal in his hey day. Although, unlike Wallace, who was a professional politician and demagogue in the classic Southern stereotypical style, Moore is a true believer. He has put his money where his mouth is. He has lost his job, not once but twice, for his stands for the Ten Commandments and against gay marriage. I doubt George Wallace would have given up his job as governor if a federal judge told him to get out of the school house door in the 1960’s. However, Moore’s support is deeper than just an evangelical base. He is a true populist in the mold of a George Wallace or even Huey Long. This job of U.S. Senator actually fits him better in voters’ minds than governor. He could have and probably should have dug up and recycled an old Wallace slogan used by the fighting little judge from Barbour County in his presidential forays, “Send them a message.” Moore amazingly carried 60 out of 67 counties on August 15. It was not just rural counties either. He won Mobile and Montgomery. Strange carried Imperial Jefferson and Brook’s carried his home bailiwick of Madison. Luther Strange had all of the money. The Washington super PAC’s let it be known early that they were going to load him up and treat him as an incumbent. They were not just whistling Dixie. In the first primary, they spent over $5 million. Moore spent $400,000. Folks that is a 15 to 1 advantage. They have outspent Moore 10 to 1 in the runoff. With the Washington money also comes the Washington gurus – the best pollsters and media experts in America. They polled Alabama Republican voters early and late and found Donald Trump’s agenda was very popular in the Heart of Dixie. They gave Luther Strange the pro-Trump script and he stuck to it perfectly. They hammered the Trump/Strange message repeatedly. They have stuck to the script in the runoff. Luther’s 33 percent vote on August 15 puts him within striking distance of Moore in the runoff. Luther was bolstered by both the Trump endorsement and also the Alabama Farmers Federation endorsement. This conservative group’s support is vital in a statewide race. The former State Attorney General did well as expected among upscale urbane voters in Jefferson and Shelby counties. He also did surprisingly well in some of the more populous counties of North Alabama, especially Tuscaloosa, Talladega, Cullman, DeKalb, Jackson and Walker counties. Walker County had a large turnout due to a local issue on the ballot. The pivotal question is where do Brooks’ voters go Tuesday. My guess is it is a wash at best. Most stay home. Therefore, the only route for Big Luther to make up the difference was to go negative and they really did. We will soon see if it works. Again, turnout is the key. See you next week. ••• Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
Steve Flowers: the field is beginning to formulate for 2018
As I mentioned last week, we will have a plethora of political contests to follow next year and the field is beginning to formulate. The governor’s race is always the marquee event. However, the most important races will be for the 35 State Senate and 105 House of Representatives seats. These legislative races will be where most of the special interest money will gravitate. There will be an unprecedented number of state senators not running for reelection. However, the nucleus and bulk of the State Senate leadership is planning to return. Veteran leaders Jabo Waggoner (R-Vestavia), Del Marsh (R-Anniston), Greg Reed (R-Jasper), Jimmy Holley (R-Coffee), Arthur Orr (R- Decatur), Cam Ward (R-Shelby), and Jim McClendon (R-St. Clair), will all run for reelection. Along with rising stars, Steve Livingston (R-Scottsboro), Clay Schofield (R-Marshall), Clyde Chambliss (R-Autauga), Shay Shelnut (R-Trussville), Slade Blackwell (R-Jefferson), as well as Gerald Allen (R-Tuscaloosa) and Tom Whatley (R-Auburn). This cadre of Republican leadership returning portends that the State Senate will be where the power will be concentrated when the next quadrennium begins in Montgomery. The same scenario will occur in the House. There will also be a good deal of turnover in the lower chamber However, the nucleus of leadership will return and will more than likely all stay in their leadership positions. The top five leaders will remain intact. Mac McCutcheon (R-Huntsville) as Speaker, Victor Gaston (R-Mobile) as ProTem, Bill Poole (R-Tuscaloosa) will continue as Chairman of the Education Ways and Means Committee and Steve Clouse (R-Ozark) will be Chairman of Ways and Means General Fund Committee. Rep. Mike Jones (R-Andalusia) will steer the Rules Committee. One center of special interest power that will diminish significantly is the once vaunted Business Council of Alabama, unless they replace Bill Canary, their much beleaguered CEO. It has been rumored for over a year that he will be replaced. In the past few months, the omnipotent power in Alabama politics, Alabama Power, made it perfectly clear that either Canary goes or the Company would have to reconsider its participation. The company’s last minute withdrawal from the annual BCA Governmental Affairs Conference was a clear message. But just to make sure the message was received, Alabama Power President, Mark Crosswhite, met with Canary in a gentlemanly fashion. He summoned Canary to the company’s downtown Birmingham headquarters and politely explained to the New Yorker that BCA’s failures and lack of leadership are a major concern to the company. Crosswhite then met with some key members of BCA’s board to make Alabama Power’s position clear. Canary is telling his BCA bosses that the meeting with Crosswhite was a great success and everything was just a misunderstanding. But the only one who misunderstands, it seems, is Canary. Alabama Power was the integral factor in organizing the Business Council several decades ago. Their financial contributions to the BCA comprise over 25 percent of the group’s income. In addition to the Power Company’s disenchantment with Canary, our senior Senator, Richard Shelby, has made it clear to BCA members that Canary is so out of favor with him that he is no longer welcome in his office and furthermore should not bother to call his office for an appointment. Folks, what that means is that the BCA with Billy Canary on board has absolutely no power in Washington. All seven of our Congressmen and whoever our new senator is pales in power to Shelby. Shelby is more powerful that all eight put together, and believe me none of them want to offend him. He not only trumps them, he trumps Trump. Canary is not only a pariah in Washington, he is a joke in Montgomery. Most folks thought he would be indicted with Mike Hubbard. His credibility has continued to diminish since that time. His cavalier, sinister, overbearing, and boorish New York behavior has made him a caricature. In private conversations with most Republican and Democratic legislators, they will snicker and say if the BCA board is stupid enough to allow Canary to stay we will take their money during the 2018 election cycle and then ignore him for four years just like Shelby. The BCA with Canary is a dead-man walking. They are a powerless joke. If a business were smart they would give their contributions directly to the candidates, rather than through a defunct organization led by a has been. You can bet your bottom dollar that is what ALFA and the Alabama Power Company will be doing. Kay Ivey has made it official that she is a candidate for governor. She enters the race as the clear favorite. See you next week. ••• Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
Steve Flowers: We are in for one heck of a year
Labor Day is the traditional kickoff to an election year. Folks our quadrennial gubernatorial election year is going to be a doozy. We are in for one heck of a political year next year. Besides the Governor’s race, we have an open Lt. Governor’s race, an open Attorney General’s race, an open Treasurer’s race, and an open Agriculture Commissioner’s race. We have statewide races for Secretary of State and State Auditor. We have five seats up for election on the State Supreme Court. One of those will be a hotly contested battle for Chief Justice. We have two seats up for election on the Public Service Commission. More importantly, we have local races on the 2018 ballot. Local races drive the turnout; all politics are local. All 67 sheriffs run, all probate judges run; there will also be local judicial races and all circuit clerks run. All seven of our congressional seats will be on the ballot. Two of those seats will be in play. Second District Congresswoman Martha Roby is vulnerable and will be challenged and Fifth District Congressman Mo Brooks angered the Washington establishment Republican moneyed power brokers by challenging Luther Strange and he will be in a battle for his political life. The most important races will be for the 35 state Senate seats and 105 House of Representative seats. An unprecedented number of Senators and Representatives will not be running for reelection. Those legislative races will be where most of the special interest money will gravitate. Money follows money. The Legislature appropriates state dollars as well as makes state laws. The Governor proposes and the Legislature disposes. I have observed Alabama politics for quite awhile and 2018 is set to be the best circus I have seen, and I have seen some good ones. There may have been better governor’s races, but from top to bottom of the ballot, this may be the very best. The governor’s race is always the marquee battle royale in Alabama politics. It will get cranked up immediately after the September 26 Republican Senate primary contest, which Roy Moore will probably win. Kay Ivey will officially announce soon. She really began her campaign the day she was sworn in earlier this year. One of her first acts made her a player in the 2018 gubernatorial contest. Robert Bentley had initially called for the open Senate race to be in 2018. However, Ivey had seen polls that revealed that Roy Moore was going to win whatever race he ran for in 2018, whether it was Governor or U.S. Senator. The vague state Judicial Inquiry Commission made him a martyr and hero when they removed him from his Chief Justice post.Neither she nor any host of potential horses would have beaten the Ten Commandment’s Judge. However, she knew that the U.S. Senate seat would allure him and it did. It was an adroit, brilliant Machiavellian move by Ivey. She has moved into the governor’s office and looks gubernatorial. She is in the catbird’s seat in the race for a full four-year term. Her move to have a special election this year rather than a regular election year not only enhanced her odds for election it also cost the state over $10 million. State House of Representatives, Ways and Means Chairman, Steve Clouse, R-Ozark, has wisely and prudently prefiled a bill to clarify the law and clearly state that the election for a vacated Senate Seat would be held with the next general election. It will save the cash strapped General Fund a lot of money in the future. Even though Kay Ivey will be running as the incumbent in the upcoming gubernatorial fray, her entrance has not deterred some major players. Huntsville Mayor, Tommy Battle, will be a player. He could run on a platform of saying if I can make the rest of Alabama a semblance of Huntsville, I am your man. Agriculture Commissioner, John McMillan, has won two statewide races and is in the race. Several other viable candidates are not scared of the aging Ivey. Jefferson County Commissioner David Carrington, Birmingham Evangelist Scott Dawson, and State Senator Bill Hightower are already in the GOP contest. Surprisingly two Democratic thoroughbreds are poised to run. Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox and former Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb are ready to pull the trigger. PSC President Twinkle Cavanaugh has moved to the Lt. Governor’s race. This is a wise and prudent move by the 50-year old state political veteran. She will be a prohibitive favorite to win that race. It is purely a name identification contest. Her positive name ID is very high. See you next week. ••• Steve Flowers is Alabama’s leading political columnist. His weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature. Steve may be reached at www.steveflowers.us.
