Poll: Rural/urban political divisions also split the suburbs
America’s suburbs are today’s great political battleground, long seen as an independent pivot between the country’s liberal cities and conservative small towns and rural expanse. But it’s not that simple. It turns out that these places in-between may be the most politically polarized of all — and when figuring out the partisan leanings of people living in the suburbs, where they came from makes a difference. Fewer suburbanites describe themselves as politically independent than do residents of the nation’s urban and rural areas, according to a survey released Tuesday by the University of Chicago Harris School for Public Policy and The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. The poll also found that the partisan leanings of suburban residents are closely linked to whether they have previously lived in a city. “In the last decade, particularly in the past five years, I’ve felt a shift in having some liberal neighbors,” said Nancy Wieman, 63, a registered Republican and staunch conservative who has lived in suburban Jefferson County outside of Denver her entire life. “The ones who are markedly liberal have moved from Denver or other cities.” Suburbanites who previously lived in a city are about as likely as city-dwellers to call themselves Democrats, the survey found. Similarly, Americans living in suburbs who have never resided in an urban area are about as likely as rural residents to say they are Republican. Just 15 percent of suburban Americans say they are independent and do not lean toward a party, compared with 25 percent of urban Americans and 30 percent of rural Americans who call themselves politically independent. That divide extends to the White House: 72 percent of ex-urban suburbanites disapprove of President Donald Trump‘s performance in office, as do 77 percent of city residents. That compares with the 57 percent of suburbanites who have not previously lived in a city and 54 percent of rural Americans who say they disapprove of the president. Kevin Keelan moved from Denver to the sprawling suburbs of Jefferson County 16 years ago. Once a political independent, the 49-year-old registered as a Democrat a few years ago. “Now it’s not even an option. I’d vote Democratic or independent, but there’s no way I can vote Republican anymore,” Keelan said. “It’s just being more open-minded, and I’d be that way if I was living here or in a loft downtown.” Jefferson County is a cluster of subdivisions and strip malls huddled under the Rocky Mountain foothills. Once a right-leaning county, it has been reshaped by an influx of transplants from coastal, urban states. It now leans Democratic: The party swept countywide offices and won most of the state legislative districts there in 2018, and Hillary Clinton won the county by 7 percentage points in 2016. Yet under that surface, election results from 2016 show it is a deeply polarized place. In 118 precincts in Jefferson County, one of the candidates won by more than 10 points. Clinton won 60 precincts and Trump 58. “The chasm between the two sides is greater than ever,” said Libby Szabo, a Republican county commissioner. “It’s harder at this point, because the ideals are so different, to even change parties.” The UChicago Harris/AP-NORC poll points to how that split between urban and rural America echoes through the suburbs. About two-thirds of city dwellers say that legal immigration is a net benefit to the United States, much as the 7 in 10 former city residents now living in the suburbs who say the same. A smaller majority of suburbanites who have never lived in cities, 58 percent, and half of rural residents think the benefits of legal immigration outweigh the risks. Urban residents are somewhat more likely than rural residents to think the U.S. should be active in world affairs, 37 percent to 24 percent. That mirrors the split between suburbanites who used to live in cities and those who never have: 32 percent of the former favor an active U.S. role, compared with 23 percent of the latter. About 6 in 10 urban residents and ex-urban suburbanites say that the way things are going in the U.S. will worsen this year, while less than half of rural residents or suburbanites with no city experience believe the same. S.A. Campbell is a general contractor who lives in the Kansas City suburbs of Johnson County, Kansas, which swung toward the Democrats in 2018 as it replaced a four-term Republican congressman with a Democratic woman who is an openly gay Native American. It is often compared to Jefferson County, with its highly educated population, high-quality schools and influx of previous city dwellers. Campbell, 60, said his childhood in Kansas City is part of what made him a supporter of Democrats; his parents were both teachers active in their union, and his mother was a supporter of Planned Parenthood. “When you’ve been raised in a certain fashion, your view of the world is more open than if you grew up in a household that wasn’t that,” he said. George Stern, the newly elected clerk in Jefferson County, has lived in New York City and spent parts of his childhood on a remote Colorado ranch. He sees partisan attitudes hardening in the suburbs much as they have in urban and rural parts of the country. But, he said, there’s a key difference: While there may be fewer independents in the suburbs, the mixture of loyal Democrats and Republicans found there means it’s still a place for both sides. “You’re welcome regardless of your political beliefs,” said Stern, a Democrat and volunteer firefighter in a suburban department with a wide range of political views in the station. “It becomes harder to live in rural or urban areas if your political beliefs don’t match those of the majority of the people who live there.” ___ Fingerhut reported from Washington. ___ The AP-NORC poll of 1,010 adults was conducted Jan. 16 to 20 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of
Poll: Most Americans see nation on the wrong track
The state of the union is dark. A large majority of Americans say they are pessimistic about the state of the country and few expect things will get better in the year ahead, according to a poll released Tuesday by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. A week before President Donald Trump delivers his assessment of the nation in a State of the Union speech to Congress delayed by a record-setting government shutdown, the survey found just 28 percent of Americans think the country is headed in the right direction. Meanwhile, 70 percent say America is headed the wrong way. That’s up from 59 percent in December, with the percentage of those saying the country is on the wrong track now at its highest point in about a year. A majority of Americans, 52 percent, also believe things are going to get worse over the next year. While Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to feel negative about the direction of the country, even Republican pessimism is on the rise. The poll found 55 percent of Republicans and just 9 percent of Democrats think the country is headed in the right direction. A month ago, 69 percent of Republicans and 16 percent of Democrats said the same. Jim Wadkowski, an 80-year-old self-described conservative from Fountain, Colorado, said he approves of the job Trump is doing but sees the nation going the wrong way. “All they do is fight. If one party thinks it’s good, the other thinks it’s bad. If the president thinks it’s good, the party opposed to him thinks it’s bad,” he said of the nation’s leaders. “They don’t do anything for the people.” The remarkable level of national gloom is even beginning to extend to how Americans view the economy, once a relative bright spot in America’s mood. Since December’s swoon in the stock market, a slim majority of Americans still has positive feelings about the national economy, but many expect it to decline in the next year. The AP-NORC survey was conducted during the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, the result of Trump’s desire to deliver on his campaign vow to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border running headlong into the commitment of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats to stop him. When Trump delivers the State of the Union address delayed by that political fight next month, he’ll speak to a nation both in need of a pep talk and deeply skeptical of him as a messenger. The survey found that 34 percent of Americans approve of the way Trump is handling his job as president, compared with 65 percent who disapprove. Carrie Montgomery, a 40-year-old learning specialist from Pawtucket, said she blames Trump for what she sees as an increase in “people’s boldness in speaking hatefully to other people.” “I’m concerned about the oppression and hatred that the president drives in this country — the safety of citizens and their ability to access their basic human rights,” she said. Trump’s approval rating is near his all-time low as president, as measured by AP-NORC polling since he took office two years ago. But the survey finds the nation’s pessimism reaches beyond the recent budget standoff and its opinion of the president, as doubts about the economy appear to be growing. For the first time since February 2018, Americans are significantly more likely to disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy than approve. In October, and for much of the last year, about half of Americans approved of Trump’s handling of the economy. Democrats are staunchly negative in their ratings of the president overall and on most issues, but about 2 in 10 had approved of the president on the economy last year. Now, only 14 percent of Democrats do so. Americans in general feel better about the state of the economy than about the country in general, but also find increasing anxiety about what will happen in the next year. About half of Americans, 53 percent, describe the economy as generally good. But looking ahead, they’re more likely to expect the economy to get worse than better, 44 percent to 27 percent. Another 27 percent expect no change. A month ago, Americans were evenly divided on whether the economy would improve or worsen. The poll shows 8 in 10 Republicans call the current economy good, while just 37 percent of Democrats say the same. And 56 percent of Republicans expect the economy to get better in the next year, while 67 percent of Democrats expect it to get worse. Early in 2018, 68 percent of Republicans expected the economy to improve and 50 percent of Democrats expected it to worsen. At the Modern Diner in Pawtucket, 40-year-old waitress Kelcie Tipping is among the more than half of Americans who believe the economy is still in good shape. She’s worked at the restaurant for 10 years, and business is booming, although she’s nervous about a future in which robots or other technology could push people out of work. “As long as people are making money,” she said. “As long as there’s jobs.” ___ The AP-NORC poll of 1,062 adults was conducted Jan. 16 to 20 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using address-based sampling methods and later were interviewed online or by phone. Republished with permission from the Associated Press
Poll: Shutdown drags Donald Trump approval to yearlong low
A strong majority of Americans blame President Donald Trump for the record-long government shutdown and reject his primary rationale for a border wall, according to a new poll that shows the turmoil in Washington is dragging his approval rating to its lowest level in more than a year. Overall, 34 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s job performance in a survey conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. That’s down from 42 percent a month earlier and nears the lowest mark of his two-year presidency. The president’s approval among Republicans remains close to 80 percent, but his standing with independents is among its lowest points of his time in office. “Trump is responsible for this,” said poll respondent Lloyd Rabalais, a federal contractor from Slidell, Louisiana, who’s not affiliated with either political party. The 47-year-old has been furloughed for more than a month. He said he’d need to start drawing on his retirement savings next week to pay his bills if the shutdown continues. “I do support a wall, but not the way he’s handling it,” Rabalais added. “Trump guaranteed everybody that Mexico would pay for the wall. Now he’s holding American workers like me hostage.” The drop in approval comes as Trump begins the third year of his presidency under the weight of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, an international trade war that’s straining the global economy and new revelations about his push for a real estate deal in Russia during his 2016 campaign. Compared with earlier presidents, Trump’s approval rating has been relatively stable over the course of his presidency, ranging from the mid-30s to the mid-40s. By contrast, President Barack Obama never fell below 40 percent in polling by Gallup. Still, five presidents since Gallup began measuring presidential approval have had their rating fall into the 20s at least once, including Harry S. Truman, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush. Trump has never fallen into that range of historic lows, but he’s also the only president never to have reached 50 percent in Gallup’s polling. The new AP-NORC poll shows most Americans see the shutdown as a major problem, and they blame Trump far more than congressional Democrats for the mess that has ensnared the lives of roughly 800,000 government workers who are going without pay. Sixty percent of Americans say Trump bears a great deal of responsibility for the shutdown. About a third place the same amount of blame on congressional Democrats (31 percent) or Republicans (36 percent). Sixty-five percent of Americans, including 86 percent of Democrats, 69 percent of independents and 33 percent of Republicans, call the shutdown a major problem. Trump may be popular overall with Republicans, but a sizable share holds him responsible for the current situation. Almost 3 in 10 Republicans think Trump bears a great deal of responsibility, while 73 percent of his party says he’s at least partly responsible. “The large part of the responsibility belongs to the president because he made the decision,” said poll respondent Sandra Olson, of Northwood, Iowa. The 76-year-old registered Republican said she voted for Trump once and likely will again. “We have never in my lifetime seen a president who has been so maligned and attacked and vilified,” Olson said. Trump’s demand for a $5.7 billion border wall is also unpopular. Overall, 49 percent of Americans oppose the plan to build a massive wall along the Mexican border; 36 percent of the nation is in favor. Opinions fall largely along ideological lines, with 8 in 10 Democrats opposing the wall and nearly 8 in 10 Republicans supporting it. About 7 in 10 supporters of the wall prefer to extend the shutdown than to reach a deal without funding it, while a nearly identical number on the other side would rather the shutdown continue than provide that funding. The poll shows significant skepticism of the president’s argument that a wall would significantly reduce crime, stem the flow of illegal drugs or help the U.S. economy. The poll was conducted the week after Trump used such factors to justify his demand for the wall during a primetime address from the Oval Office. In the nationally televised speech, he highlighted the case of one immigrant in the country illegally accused of beheading and dismembering an American citizen. About 6 in 10 Americans do say the wall would at least slightly decrease the number of people entering the U.S. illegally, though only 3 in 10 think the number would significantly decrease. Yet just 35 percent of Americans believe the wall would make the country safer, while a majority of Americans — 57 percent— believe it would make no difference to safety in the U.S. Only 21 percent believe the wall would significantly reduce the availability of illegal drugs in the nation, though 28 percent say access to illegal drugs would be slightly reduced; 49 percent say the wall would have no effect. On the economy, about as many Americans say the border wall would do more to help — almost 3 in 10 — as say it would do more to hurt; 43 percent say the wall would not make much difference to the U.S. economy. Poll respondent Kelley Thorson, of St. Robert, Missouri, who backed Trump in the 2016 election, says she supports the wall but largely disagrees with the president’s rationale. “I can’t say it would make us safer,” the 57-year-old said. “Criminals are going to get here no matter what.” While partisan opinions of Trump have remained relatively constant throughout his presidency, the poll shows that disapproval has grown particularly among independents who do not lean toward either party. Just 28 percent of independents say they approve, compared with 71 percent who disapprove. In December, 37 percent of independents approved of Trump’s job performance, while 58 percent disapproved. Women also are more likely to disapprove today compared with a month ago — 71 percent to 58 percent. And 76 percent of college graduates disapprove
Poll: Immigration among the top concerns in 2019
As much of the U.S. government remains shut down over President Donald Trump’s insistence on funding for his border wall, nearly half of Americans identify immigration as a top issue for the government to work on this year. An Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll conducted shortly before the shutdown began finds that both Republicans and Democrats are far more likely to include immigration in their list of top issues facing the country this year compared with a year ago. Overall, 49 percent mentioned immigration in an open-ended question as one of the top five problems they hoped the government addresses in 2019. By contrast, 27 percent mentioned immigration in December 2017. Partisan divides on the best solutions remain deep. Republicans continue to be more likely to cite immigration as a top issue than Democrats, an indication of the GOP’s greater intensity on the issue. But it’s an increasingly important issue to members of both parties. The poll found that 65 percent of Republicans say immigration is one of the top five problems facing the country, up from 42 percent in 2017. Among Democrats, 37 percent cite immigration as a top issue, compared with just 2 in 10 a year ago. Roughly two-thirds of those who named immigration as a top priority express little confidence in the government to make progress this year, including a third who say they are “not at all” confident. About a third say they are at least moderately confident in the government to make progress on immigration. This follows a year of intermittent deadlocked negotiations and standoffs between Trump and Democrats in Congress. Although both Democrats and Republicans are increasingly likely to name immigration-related issues as top priorities for the government, other polls show that their opinions on the issue diverge dramatically. For example, a December poll by CNN found that 78 percent of Republicans and just 8 percent of Democrats supported building a border wall. And with their party still in control of the White House and the Senate, Republicans are more optimistic about the government making progress on immigration this year. Among those who prioritize immigration, Republicans are more than three times as likely as Democrats to express some confidence that the government will make progress. That includes David Hoyt, a 77-year-old retired school superintendent and registered Republican in eastern Iowa. “We waste too many resources with illegal aliens,” Hoyt said. “If people want to come here, let’s have them do it legally. I don’t understand why people don’t understand the word ‘illegal.’” Hoyt says he’s also focused on the economy, and its healthy state is why he’s satisfied with the country’s direction and Trump’s performance. “People are busy,” Hoyt said. “I can tell the economy from the number of semis on the highway, and it’s loaded.” Chris Butino, 31, is a Democrat and a firefighter in Cortland, New York, who’s been disappointed by Trump’s rhetoric and actions on immigration, especially against refugees. Trump has sharply curtailed the number of refugees accepted by the U.S. and taken steps to limit who can claim asylum as more migrants from Central America try to do so at the Mexican border. “We’re America — we’re the wealthiest nation in the world in terms of resources, and saying we’re not going to take in the poor, huddled masses,” Butino said. “We can maintain our own safety, but we can also be generous.” The economy remains a top priority for Americans, with 62 percent citing related issues, including mentions of jobs, unemployment, taxes and trade. Nearly half of Americans also identify health care as one of the top five issues facing the country, unchanged from one year ago. A traditionally Democratic issue, health care is named by Democrats more than Republicans (56 percent versus 43 percent). There was a sharp rise in environmental and climate issues after a year of wildfires and hurricanes, a change that is largely driven by Democrats. Overall, about a quarter of Americans mention the environment as a top issue. About 4 in 10 Democrats include the environment as a priority, compared with just 8 percent of Republicans. The share of Democrats naming the environment has grown 11 percentage points since a year ago. The poll was conducted in December before the stock market gyrations and government shutdown. Gil Parks, a retired CPA who’s become a rancher in Texas, is fine with the shutdown. “It’s only 25 percent of the government,” he said. Parks, a 59-year-old Republican, is optimistic the country could be in for a long stretch of economic growth, in part because of the partisan acrimony fueling the shutdown. “If you look back in history, the economy did best when government couldn’t get in the way,” he said. With Democrats assuming control of the House of Representatives, the inevitable gridlock could preserve the economic expansion, Parks argued. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to be optimistic, but feelings about the country are mixed even within the GOP. Six in 10 Americans are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country as a whole, including 79 percent of Democrats and 42 percent of Republicans. Among Republicans, that’s a slight increase from 33 percent who were dissatisfied with the state of the country in October. Still, Republicans are far more likely than Democrats today to say they’re satisfied with the way things are going in the country, 39 percent to 9 percent. The unhappiness on both sides of the aisle is palpable to John Rossetti, a 47-year-old code enforcement officer in Youngstown, Ohio. “There’s a really different, negative environment,” Rossetti said. “Everywhere you go, it’s there — just a very negative atmosphere.” Rossetti describes himself as a moderate to conservative Democrat who didn’t support Trump in 2016 but was rooting for him to succeed. Now he’s disillusioned and pessimistic about the future, and he’s not alone. Americans are more likely to think things in the country will get worse in the next year than that they will get better,
Poll: Nearly 6 in 10 say Donald Trump impeded Russia probe
A majority of Americans say they believe President Donald Trump has tried to obstruct the investigation into his campaign’s ties to Russia, though the public is divided on whether he should be removed from office if he’s found to have stymied the probe, according to a new poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Meanwhile, the survey shows Americans are somewhat less likely to say Congress should remove Trump from office if he directed his former personal attorney, Michael Cohen, to arrange hush money payments to cover up claims of extramarital relationships during the 2016 campaign. Still, opinions on both matters see a stark partisan divide. The poll was conducted just after federal prosecutors in New York implicated Trump in illegal payments to a former Playboy model and an adult-film actress and after special counsel Robert Mueller revealed that discussions over a possible Trump Tower in Moscow extended longer than had been previously known. It was done amid signs of intensifying legal danger for Trump, whose actions face scrutiny in New York and in Mueller’s investigation into possible coordination between Russia and the Trump campaign. Overall, 42 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 56 percent disapprove. Those numbers have held steady for most of the year. About 8 in 10 Republicans approve of Trump’s job performance, while just 1 in 10 Democrats say the same. The swirling investigations are helping define public opinion, creating clear divisions about whether and for what Trump should be impeached and to what extent he might be culpable of wrongdoing. A majority of Americans — 58 percent —think the president has tried to impede the Russia investigation, while 4 in 10 say he has not. An overwhelming share of Democrats, 90 percent, say the president has sought to obstruct the probe, compared with 22 percent of Republicans. The survey also shows that if Mueller’s investigation finds that Trump did not personally have inappropriate contacts with the Kremlin but nonetheless tried to obstruct the FBI’s work, 51 percent of Americans think Congress should take steps to remove him from office, while 46 percent think it should not. The special counsel’s obstruction investigation has shadowed the president for a year and a half, unfolding alongside his inquiry into whether the Trump campaign coordinated with Russia to sway the election and the separate campaign finance probe in New York. The last month has produced bombshell developments in the investigation, including Cohen’s sentencing, allegations that Trump’s former campaign chairman lied to prosecutors and a judge’s unexpected upbraiding of former national security adviser Michael Flynn. Jonathan Levine, a 64-year-old financial services professional in Connecticut, said he was especially concerned by reports that negotiations over a Trump Tower in Moscow continued deep into the 2016 campaign. “He’s running to be president of the United States. The United States is ideologically opposed to Russia, so he’s accidentally dealing with the enemy, accidentally in bed with the enemy,” Levine said. “Obviously he should have discontinued negotiations in Moscow when he turned the campaign on full time.” Levine said he could support impeachment if there were appropriate hearings and solid evidence. But there are major partisan divides about what constitutes an impeachable offense. About 8 in 10 Democrats and 2 in 10 Republicans think Trump should be removed from office if he committed obstruction. Nearly three-quarters of Democrats and only about 1 in 10 Republicans think Congress should take steps to impeach him if he directed illegal payments. Overall, 45 percent said Congress should take steps to remove him from office if he orchestrated the hush money payments. Slightly more, 53 percent, said Congress should not take steps to remove Trump for that. About 4 in 10 think he broke the law when it comes to directing Cohen’s payments, and about as many say the same of his ties to Russia. About 2 in 10 think Trump has done nothing wrong, with the remainder saying his actions were unethical, but not illegal. About 7 in 10 Democrats believe Trump has done something illegal involving Russia. Among Republicans, 55 percent say Trump has done nothing wrong when it comes to Russia, while 35 percent think he has done something unethical but not illegal. Matthew Behrs, a maintenance coordinator from Plymouth, Wisconsin, is among those unconvinced by the allegations. He said he was skeptical of the impact Russia actually had on the election and wondered why Mueller hadn’t provided direct evidence of collusion if the problem was so prevalent. “If there was this collusion, why wasn’t this (over in) three months,” he said. “Here are the emails, here’s the contact, here’s the collusion. Here it is.” Nearly 7 in 10 Democrats find illegality for Trump in Cohen’s payments, while just 7 percent of Republicans say the same. Among Republicans, 49 percent think Trump did something unethical, but not illegal, while 44 percent think he did nothing wrong. The poll finds rising confidence among Democrats of the fairness and impartiality of Mueller’s investigation. Overall, about a third of Americans say they’re extremely or very confident that the inquiry is fair and impartial; another quarter say they are moderately confident. Roughly 4 in 10 say they’re not confident. Democrats are more likely to express confidence today compared with a year ago, 51 percent to 38 percent. Just 14 percent of Republicans say they are confident, which is unchanged from last year. ___ The AP-NORC poll of 1,067 adults was conducted Dec. 13-16 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using address-based sampling methods, and later interviewed online or by phone. ___ Republished with permission from the Associated Press.
Poll: Most Americans see a sharply divided nation
With just two weeks to go until the critical midterm elections, an overwhelming majority of Americans say the United States is greatly divided, according to an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll. Few Americans believe those stark divisions will get better anytime soon. The newly released survey found that more than 8 in 10 Americans think the country is greatly divided about important values. Just 20 percent of Americans say they think the country will become less divided over the next few years, and 39 percent think things will get worse. A strong majority of Americans, 77 percent, say they are dissatisfied with the state of politics in the country. The poll was conducted Oct. 11-14 in the final sprint to the midterm elections, in which President Donald Trump has been rallying his supporters to turn out to vote in November. Overall, 59 percent of Americans disapprove of how Trump, a Republican, is handling his job as president, while 40 percent of Americans approve. How Americans view Trump divides along partisan lines, according to the poll. While 83 percent of Republicans approve of how Trump is handling his job, 92 percent of Democrats and 61 percent of independents say they do not approve. According to the poll, nearly half of Americans say they aren’t hearing enough from campaigns about the issues that matter most to them. Fifty-four percent of Democrats and 44 percent of Republicans say they are hearing too little about key issues. Overall, top issues for Americans include health care, education, economic growth, Social Security and crime, each of which was called very important by at least three-quarters of Americans. Fifty-eight percent of Americans say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country, compared with 25 percent who say they are satisfied. But Americans are slightly more likely to be satisfied with the way things are going in their state or in their local community. Majorities of Americans also say that they are dissatisfied with the gap between the rich and the poor, race relations and environmental conditions. But there are partisan splits. Eighty-three percent of Democrats are dissatisfied with the gap between the wealthy and the poor, compared with 43 percent of Republicans. Of environmental conditions, 75 percent of Democrats and 32 percent of Republicans say they are dissatisfied. And while 77 percent of Democrats say they’re dissatisfied with race relations, about 50 percent of Republicans say the same. Democrats and Republicans also are divided on how important they consider each of those issues to be. About 8 in 10 Democrats but no more than a third of Republicans call income inequality, environmental issues or racism very important. The past year has seen the United States reckon with accusations of sexual misconduct that ranged from inappropriate comments to rape and with a slew of high-profile men forced to resign or be fired. Overall, about 6 in 10 Americans said the issue of misconduct was important to them. But 73 percent of women said the issue was very important, compared with 51 percent of men. Democrats were much more likely than Republicans to call sexual misconduct important, 79 percent to 39 percent. According to the poll, 43 percent of Americans somewhat or strongly disapprove of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh‘s confirmation to the Supreme Court after a bruising confirmation fight that included allegations of excessive drinking and an accusation of sexual assault dating back to Kavanaugh’s teenage years. Thirty-five percent of Americans said they strongly or somewhat strongly approved of Kavanaugh’s confirmation. Overall, 59 percent of Americans said Supreme Court appointments are very important now, which is similar to the percentage who said that in 2016. But two years ago, Democrats and Republicans were more similar in how important they saw these nominations. Now, there is a 20 percentage point gap: 73 percent of Democrats and 53 percent of Republicans say Supreme Court appointments are very important to them. ___ The AP-NORC poll of 1,152 adults was conducted Oct. 11-14 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4 percentage points. Republished with permission from the Associated Press.
Poll: Young people feel anxious about election
Engaged? Check. Anxious? Check. With weeks to go until the November midterm elections, more young Americans are interested but, according to a new poll, they’re also feeling more anxious about the results. A poll released Wednesday by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and MTV found that more young people now say they are feeling anxious about the midterms, compared to July. Nearly half of young Americans ages 15 to 34 now say that they are anxious about the midterms, up from 36 percent in the earlier poll. The increase is most pronounced among young Democrats: 61 percent expressed anxiety compared with 39 percent in July. Young voters could play a critical role in the elections, which will determine whether Republicans will maintain their full grip on Congress. But the big question is whether they will show up to the polls. Young voters rarely turn out in numbers that match their share of the population, especially in years when a presidential candidate isn’t on the ballot. That’s leaving some voters nervous about what to expect. Tia Green, a 33-year-old from Lexington Park, Maryland, said she was worried that the election could inflame an already divided political culture. It’s an issue she’s especially sensitive to after recently seeing posts from a friend on social media that offended her. “In the end, I ended up de-friending her without any confrontation or anything. But I was kind of saddened by it,” said Green, who described herself as a moderate Democrat. “Her views in general were completely disappointing, upsetting and it is hard to deal.” Anxiety about November’s elections also grew among independents: 43 percent now describe themselves as anxious, compared with 31 percent in July. Among Republicans, about one-third say they are anxious about the midterms, roughly the same share that said so this summer. John Laubacker, 32, of Rockport, New York, said he was “appalled” by the state of politics heading into the midterm elections. “Political polarization is at an all-time high. Nobody wants to be civil with anybody,” he said. “Until they figure out that you have to work together whether you like them or not, they’re not going to get anything done.” Laubacker, who identified as a moderate Republican, said he was frustrated by mudslinging by both parties. “You keep hearing, ‘If the Republicans win, the country’s doomed. If the Democrats get enough people in, they’re going to impeach the president,’” he said. “They’re all worried about their own agendas and the agendas of their big-moneyed contributors. Nobody gives a crap about small people anymore.” Though young voters participate in elections at low rates, the poll suggests they are now paying closer attention than they were several months ago. Roughly two-thirds of those ages 15 to 34 now say they are interested in the elections, compared with about 4 in 10 in July. Interest is highest among young Democrats. Seventy-three percent of young Democrats say they are interested in the elections, up from 50 percent in July. A smaller majority of Republicans — 62 percent — say they are interested today, but that’s still up dramatically from 31 percent who said so in July. Young Democrats and Republicans alike say they are more hopeful than they were earlier this year. Over the summer, roughly 4 in 10 in each group said they felt hopeful about the midterms. Now, 58 percent of Democrats and 62 percent of Republicans say they feel that way. Fewer young Americans overall said that they were feeling overwhelmed ahead of November’s elections. Thirty-four percent of those 15 to 34 said they were feeling overwhelmed now, compared with 43 percent earlier this summer. “I’m feeling a little nervous, but cautiously optimistic that things are going to swing in a positive way,” said 31-year-old Ashley Oliver of Kensington, Maryland, who described the political atmosphere as “chaotic” “I’m hoping more Democratic candidates end up in so that we can bring back a little bit of control as to what’s going on,” she said. “Right now, I feel like it’s very chaotic, so I’m hoping that instead of being one-sided, it will be a little more even.” Republished with permission from the Associated Press.
Poll: Few Democrats favor liberal cry to abolish ICE
The rallying cry from some liberals to abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement isn’t a likely winner this election year, as a new poll finds only a quarter of Democrats support eliminating the agency that carried out the Trump administration’s policy of separating immigrant children from their parents. But even as they don’t want to fully dismantle ICE, 57 percent of Democrats view the agency negatively, including nearly three-fourths of those who describe themselves as liberal, according to a poll released Monday by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. The findings demonstrate tension among Democrats about how to address the crisis at the border that intensified in June when the Trump administration instituted a family separation policy to deter illegal immigration. Some potential Democratic presidential contenders, such as Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, backed getting rid of ICE in response to the separations. Others, including Sen. Kamala Harris of California, urged a rethinking of the agency, but stopped short of calling for its abolition. President Donald Trump has seized on the Democratic criticism of ICE to paint the party as weak on immigration and national security. The administration reversed its separation policy amid an international outcry, but hundreds of children remain separated from their families. Overall, opinions about ICE are divided along partisan lines. While a majority of Democrats view the agency negatively, Republicans largely have favorable views of ICE. A sizable chunk — a full one-third of Americans — are too unfamiliar with the agency to form an opinion. Dianne Stone, a 68-year-old retired bus driver from Charlotte, North Carolina, said ICE should be modified but not scrapped. After spending decades living in Southern California, she said ICE ought to be less of a law enforcement agency and more dedicated to helping immigrants negotiate the border. “Yes, there are more drugs and crime coming across the border than years ago. But you can’t keep kids in cages,” Stone said. “ICE can be part of a more sophisticated vetting process where you’re keeping criminals out.” The public is largely critical of the administration’s progress in reuniting families. Nearly 6 in 10 think the Trump administration is doing too little, though 8 percent say it’s doing too much, and a third think it is doing enough. Anna Lee Lish was appalled by the scenes of children separated from their parents at the border in June, but does not blame ICE for the problem. “I thought it was horrific,” said the 60-year-old social worker from Pocatello, Idaho. “ICE was just doing its job, following orders. But it’s the policy of separating families that needs to change, not abandon ICE.” The partisan divide is dramatic: 85 percent of Democrats say the administration is doing too little to reunite children with their families, compared to 22 percent of Republicans. Still, that means nearly a quarter of Republicans feel the administration should be doing more. Reviews of Trump’s overall handling of immigration are also divided. More than three-quarters of Republicans have largely favorable views of the president’s immigration performance while more than 90 percent of Democrats disapprove. Nearly two-thirds of independent voters said they don’t approve of Trump’s handling of the issue. And while the Trump administration seeks to curb legal immigration, Americans are more likely to say they want to keep it at existing levels (42 percent) than to want the number of immigrants let in to be increased (29 percent) or decreased (28 percent). The push to abolish ICE became something of a litmus test among liberal Democrats this summer after Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez unseated a 10-term party leader for a New York congressional seat in part by campaigning on the issue. But it hasn’t proved a political winner in other races. Democrat Brent Welder, endorsed by Ocasio-Cortez in July, backed ending ICE but was narrowly beaten in an August primary in suburban Kansas. And no Democrats running in competitive Senate races in November have advocated abolishing ICE. More common among prominent Democrats is the suggestion the agency be reformed. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, a Democrat running for Senate in Republican-heavy Arizona with its 378-mile (608-kilometer) border with Mexico, said last month that “ICE does provide some important functions,” though she has recommended changes to the agency. ___ The AP-NORC poll of 1,055 adults was conducted Aug. 16-20 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. Republished with permission from the Associated Press.
Poll: Support for school choice growing among Republicans
Support for charter schools and private school voucher programs has gone up over the past year, with Republicans accounting for much of the increase, according to a survey published Tuesday. The findings by Education Next, a journal published by Harvard’s Kennedy School and Stanford University, come as Education Secretary Betsy DeVos promotes alternatives to traditional public schools. Forty-four percent of respondents in the poll conducted in May said they support the expansion of charter schools, compared to 39 percent in 2017. The gain of 5 percentage points, however, did not fully offset the drop in support from 51 percent in 2016. When broken down according to party affiliation, 57 percent of Republicans and 36 percent of Democrats voiced support for charter schools, compared to 47 percent of Republicans and 34 percent of Democrats in 2017. “Support is up among Republicans for various strategies to expand school choice, and the Trump administration’s embrace of those policies is a likely explanation,” said Martin West, associate professor of education at Harvard University and a co-author of the report. Nina Rees, president of the National Alliance for Public Charter Schools said the findings “demonstrate through the educational choices they make for their children – families want high-quality charter school options for their kids. “Above all else, parents care that their child has access to an excellent school, and as education advocates it is our job to ensure that wish becomes a reality,” Rees added. Robin Lake, director of the Center on Reinventing Public Education, noted that support for charters has risen mostly among Republicans. “I hate to see an issue turn into a partisan question,” Lake said. “I don’t think that an education policy that’s designed to get better outcomes for kids should ever be a partisan issue.” Support for publicly funded vouchers given to low-income families to help them pay tuition at private school rose from 37 percent to 42 percent over the past year. The Education Department welcomed the results of the poll. “The data consistently show that parents want more education options for their kids and when they are empowered with options, they like it and their kids benefit,” said press secretary Elizabeth Hill. “Education freedom is the future.” Meanwhile, Americans seem to be more satisfied with their local police and the post office than with their neighborhood school. While 51 percent of respondents said they would give their local schools a grade of A or B, 68 percent gave the local post office a similar grade and 69 percent the local police. “It makes sense that only 50 percent of Americans are giving their public school a good grade of an A or a B that they would express support for alternatives to those public schools,” said Patrick McGuinn, a professor of political science and education at Drew University. In the Black Lives Matter era, African-American respondents gave their local police much lower marks than other respondents, but their views of their local schools were even worse. Thirty-nine percent gave their local schools an A or a B, while the local police force received such marks from 43 percent of African-American respondents. The study also found that many Americans favor raising teacher salaries and increasing school funding in the aftermath of teachers walking out of schools in six states earlier this spring to protest pay and other issues. Informed about average teacher earnings in their state, nearly half said they support raising teacher pay. That number was 67 percent when respondents were not told explicitly how much their local teachers were making. Nationally, the average teacher’s salary was $58,950 in 2017, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. “The sense of economic insecurity for teachers is very strong and there is growing support for higher pay, not just from teachers but from the broader community,” said Evan Stone, CEO of Educators For Excellence, a teachers’ advocacy organization. West said that while many believe teachers should be making more, there is disagreement over whether they should be compensated based on how much their students learn or using some other metric. “To the extent that the debate moves from how much are teachers are paid to how they are paid, there is potential for continued conflict,” West said. The Education Next survey was based on interviews with 4,601 adults across the country. The margin of error was 1.4 percentage points. Republished with permission from the Associated Press.
Shocking new poll out with completely obvious general election results
Breaking news alert: According to a poll released by Alabama’s own Cygnal polling firm, Kay Ivey is going to win the Alabama general election and keep her place in the governors office. According to the release by Cygnal, “The survey conducted July 24 – 25, with 1,027 likely general election voters, shows Republicans with a 14-point lead over Democratic candidates, with incumbent Governor Kay Ivey leading Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox 56% to 42%.” Pause for dramatic effect. Think about it… who could have possibly predicted such an outcome? Then, you realize anyone with the ability to play the old fashioned grade school greater than or less than game with basic numbers could have predicted it. Why? Because voter registration, voter turn-out… you know, the little things in political life add up to victory. Yes, people have talked about a “blue wave” across the country this cycle. But those people are “kooky dukes,” as Maui favorite character Moana would say, if they actually think a blue wave is coming to Alabama. And if you say “Doug Jones,” I’m going to give you some side eye and smile politely while refusing to tell you how that’s irrelevant here. The fact is: Alabama is a conservative state. We like our candidates and our elected officials, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment, for smaller government and lower taxes, with a big old “R” behind their names. I don’t see any circumstances in which Kay Ivey doesn’t win the election. Though if there were a candidate who could capitalize on a bad year for Republicans it would be Walt Maddox with his energy, likability and experience but alas it’s not the right time or place for him. Though his candidacy, like Jones’, will help strengthen the very weak Democrat party throughout the state and help them down the road with local and legislative races. Not his fault he doesn’t stand a chance… numbers stand in his way. If you’re curious to see those number, here they are via the Secretary of the State’s website, from all of the general elections in the last 10 years. And in the state of Alabama, Republicans have a significant advantage. On that note, I’m going to go ahead and call the race early. Kay Ivey continues to be governor, and every Republican straight on down the ticket will win too. See ya at the polls!
Survey reveals Kay Ivey is one of America’s most popular governors
With a 67 percent approval rating among constituents Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey is now the third most popular governor in the country, according to the latest Morning Consult poll. The survey asked 275,000 registered voters in all 50 states to evaluate the job performance of their state’s chief executive from January 1 to March 31 of this year. Ivey’s no.3 spot remains unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2017. She also has a 52 percent net approval rating. For the fifth quarter in a row, America’s 10 most popular governors are all Republicans. The 10 most popular governors, according to the poll (in order): Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey Vermont Gov. Phil Scott New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu South Dakota Governor Dennis Daugaard Wyoming Governor Matt Mead Utah Governor Gary Herbert North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin, Illinois Gov. Bruce Rainer, New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez, and Maine Gov. Paul Lepage make the list for the top five least popular governors.
