Presidential Primary Brief: 105 days until Election Day
105 days until Election Day Weekly Headlines: Clinton Picks Virginia’s Kaine as Running Mate Reagan historian to the GOP: Unify or lose the 2016 election Third parties shake up Senate battle Press Clips: Introducing The Upshot’s Presidential Prediction Model (NY Times 7/19/16) For now, at least, Hillary Clinton has a 76 percent chance of defeating Donald Trump to become president of the United States. A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same probability an NBA player will miss a free throw. This electoral probability, the first forecast by the Upshot’s presidential prediction model, is based on the voting history of each state and on roughly 300 state and national polls of the race conducted since mid-April. Fact-checking Donald Trump’s acceptance speech at the 2016 RNC (Washington Post 7/22/16) The dark portrait of America Donald J. Trump sketched in his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention is a compendium of doomsday stats that fall apart upon close scrutiny. Numbers are taken out of context, data is manipulated, and sometimes the facts are wrong. When facts are inconveniently positive — such as rising incomes and an unemployment rate under 5 percent — Trump simply declines to mention them. He describes an exceedingly violent nation, flooded with murders, when in reality, the violent-crime rate has been cut in half since the crack cocaine epidemic hit its peak in 1991. Trump: I wouldn’t accept Cruz endorsement (Politico 7/22/16) Donald Trump wouldn’t accept Ted Cruz‘s endorsement even if he offered it to him, the Republican nominee said Friday, two days after the Texas senator declined to back him in epic fashion during his convention speech. “He’s fine. I don’t want his endorsement. If he gives it, I will not accept it, just so you understand. I will not accept it,” Trump said. “It won’t matter. Honestly, he should have done it. Because nobody cares. And he would have been in better shape for four years from now. I don’t see him winning anyway, frankly. But if he did, it’s fine.” Democratic National Convention 2016: Everything You Need to Know (ABC News 7/23/16) The Republican National Convention wrapped up this week, and now it is the Democrats’ turn in the spotlight. Democrats from all over the country will gather at Philadelphia’s Wells Fargo Center, the arena home of the 76ers and the Flyers, from Monday, July 25, through Thursday for the Democratic National Convention, which will formally nominate Hillary Clinton as the party’s presidential nominee and Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine as her running mate. Republican hopefuls eye 2020 election at 2016 convention (Chicago Tribune 7/18/16) The political courtship for 2020 is underway. The Republican Party’s potential future candidates — from House Speaker Paul Ryan to Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton — on Monday schmoozed with state delegations considered critical in a presidential election. The practice, while expected, is a delicate dance in which the party’s rising stars circulate among key delegates even before Donald Trump accepts the official nomination this week. Jeff Sessions at RNC: 2016 Election About Immigration, Elites Respond ‘With Disdain’ (Breitbart 7/18/16) Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) got his prime-time message out to America, loud and clear, during the 2016 GOP convention: “Excess immigration floods the labor market, reducing wages and job prospects.” Sessions’ focus on curbing immigration and improving trade has been the jet fuel in Donald Trump’s insurgent campaign. “Average Americans have been the first to note that something is wrong with this economy — our middle class is steadily declining … but the Washington establishment, the media, big corporations have been in denial,” the Alabama senator declared. How Time Kaine matches up against Mike Pence (Politico 7/22/16) Both are known for their distaste for smash-mouth campaigning. Yet each will attack when cornered, and can go on the offensive when necessary. That’s how allies and rivals alike describe Indiana Gov. Mike Pence and Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, the presidential running mates who will go head-to-head in a single high-stakes debate in early October. Pence, Donald Trump’s vice presidential nominee, and Kaine, who will appear on Hillary Clinton’s ticket, aren’t likely to play the traditional attack dog roles. But each knows how to draw blood when necessary. Dems’ Convention Unity Script Marred by DNC Emails (Real Clear Politics 7/25/16) After watching Donald Trump’s messy GOP convention in Cleveland last week, Democrats imagined their party would come together in the City of Brotherly Love and blanket the airwaves with harmony and inclusiveness. That may yet happen at the end of the week, when Hillary Clinton makes history as the first woman to win a major political party nomination to be president, but what’s clear at the outset is that intraparty upheavals are a bipartisan affliction.
Presidential Primary Brief: 154 days until Election Day
154 days until Election Day Convention Dates: Republican July 18-21 2016, Democratic July 25-28 2016 Weekly Headlines: Obama dives into 2016 fight, lambasts GOP on economy Libertarians Pick Gary Johnson & William Weld as Presidential Election Ticket RNC taps groups reviled by Trump to write GOP platform Press Clips: Frank Luntz: The 2016 presidential election will be determined by the ‘none of the above’ voters (LA Times 6/1/16) If prior elections were decided by soccer moms, security moms, NASCAR dads, or even “the economy, stupid,” the 2016 presidential election will be determined by the NAs — the none of the above voters who have so far refused to support either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. For them, the election isn’t about mere dissatisfaction. It’s about rejection. Comprising about 11% of the electorate in the critical swing states, the NAs are unwilling or unable to distinguish between our two wildly different candidates — arguably the most different of any presumptive nominees in modern history. These voters are loud, aggressive, and they give me a headache. San Jose, California, police under fire after Trump rally (WTOP 6/3/16) This Silicon Valley city and its police department are facing mounting complaints of a tepid and tardy law enforcement response to attacks of Donald Trump supporters after a political rally. Videos circulating online show physical clashes occurring in front of San Jose police officers dressed in riot gear and standing stoically in a line outside the convention center where Trump spoke. Critics also complained that assaults occurred on side streets near the venue that lacked police presence. Election 2016 Leadership Contrast: Résumé vs. Bumper Sticker, Pollster Says (WSJ 6/3/16) As the 2016 presidential primary season comes to a close for both parties, voters have gotten a pretty clear impression of what kind of leadership they would get from former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and New York businessman Donald Trump. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll helps illustrate how dramatically different those impressions of the two presumptive nominees are. GOP pollster Micah Roberts concludes that Mrs. Clinton’s selling points read like a résumé; Mr. Trump’s like a bumper sticker. Boomers 35% Of Voters In 2016 Presidential Election (MediaPost 5/30/16) According to the American Consumers Newsletter by Cheryl Russell, New Strategist Press, the Baby-Boom generation will account for more than one-third of voters in the 2016 presidential election, outnumbering voters in the other generations. Millennials will account for 26% of the total. Gen Xers will rank third, casting 20% of votes, more than the Silent and World War II generations combined. The oldest members of the iGeneration (aged 18 to 21) will cast their first vote for president in 2016, and they will account for just 4% of the total. Demo Memo calculated these figures by applying single-year-of-age citizenship and voting rates from the 2012 presidential election to the Census Bureau’s 2016 population projections. How Donald Trump could win (CNN 6/1/16) Donald Trump’s transition from primary flame-thrower to general-election standard bearer has been marked by controversy. In just the past week, he’s caused an uproar by blasting the Republican governor of New Mexico — one of the party’s most prominent Latinas — while also calling Elizabeth Warren “Pocahontas” and abruptly parting ways with his recently hired political director. But there are also signs that he’s willing to moderate some of his primary positions and take more conventional steps to prepare for November, such as building out a national finance team, hiring a pollster, accepting checks from wealthy donors and hitting the fundraising circuit. Oil analyst: Here’s who Saudi Arabia wants as the next U.S. president (CNBC 6/1/16) The U.S. presidential race is capturing the interest of every nation as onlookers look to see who becomes the next “leader of the free world.” According to Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Group, countries in the oil-producing Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, are hoping for Hillary Clinton to become president. The presidential election is scheduled for early November and the two leading contenders are viewed as Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, and Clinton, front- runner for the Democratic nomination. How new voter ID laws may affect the 2016 presidential contest (PBS 6/5/16) 17 states will have new voting regulations in place for the presidential election this November. 12 states will join the ranks of those requiring voters to show a government-issued photo ID, including North Carolina and Texas. For more insight on these new regulations, Hari Sreenivasan speaks with Reuters National Affairs Editor Jason Szep. California’s registered voters hit record high ahead of Tuesday presidential primary (LA Times 6/5/16) With one of the most closely watched presidential primary seasons in modern times0, California’s voter rolls grew by almost 650,000 in the final six weeks of registration. And three of every four new voters were Democrats. On Friday, Secretary of State Alex Padilla released the final report of voter registration prior to the June 7 statewide primary. The deadline to register for Tuesday’s election was May 23. Of the 646,220 people who registered in the final rush —between April 8 and May 23 — 76% became Democrats. ‘Missing’ White Voters Might Help Trump, But Less So Where He Needs It (FiveThirtyEight 6/2/16) A common refrain is that demographics will ultimately doom Donald Trump’s candidacy. His most reliable supporters have been whites without college degrees — a group that made up 65 percent of voters in 1980 but is on pace to make up just 33 percent in 2016. Meanwhile, nonwhite voters, with whom Trump is extremely unpopular, rose from 12 percent of the electorate in 1980 to 28 percent in 2012.
Presidential Primary Brief: 182 days until Election Day
182 days until Election Day Convention Dates: Republican July 18-21 2016, Democratic July 25-28 2016 Weekly Headlines: John Kasich suspends campaign for President Ted Cruz suspends his campaign for President Donald Trump says wealthy may see tax increase Press Clips: The GOP’s 24 hour meltdown (Politico 5/8/16) Donald Trump on Tuesday night assumed the mantle of presumptive nominee and declared: “We want to bring unity to the Republican Party. We have to bring unity.” Three days later, the GOP is tearing itself apart. Friday brought another day of incredible division and revolt with Jeb Bush and Lindsey Graham falling in line not behind Trump, but behind House Speaker Paul Ryan, who said a day earlier that he cannot yet support the brash real estate mogul as his party’s standard-bearer. Trump, instead of trying to make peace, lashed out. He fired off a vicious statement, calling Graham an “embarrassment” with “zero credibility.” Then he laced into both of his former rivals during his rally in Omaha, Nebraska, where he is continuing to campaign ahead of Tuesday’s primary, despite having vanquished the rest of the GOP field. Donald Trump’s latest campaign shifts are not likely to be his last (LA Times 5/8/16) One of the top reasons voters have flocked to Donald Trump’s campaign has been because the tough-talking businessman “tells it like it is,” polls have shown. But what, exactly, Trump stands for has become a shifting picture of policies and proposals that even he acknowledged Sunday may not produce the promised outcomes. It’s not just that the billionaire’s ideas are vague by traditional political standards: bring back jobs, build a “beautiful” wall, “make America great again.” The political newcomer does not appear grounded in an ideology beyond assuring that America is “winning.” Hillary Clinton Says She Is Available for F.B.I. Interviews Over Emails (NY Times 5/8/16) Hillary Clinton said Sunday that the F.B.I. had not asked to interview her as part of its inquiry into her use of a personal email server as secretary of state. But Mrs. Clinton reiterated on CBS’s “Face the Nation” that she would make herself available to law enforcement officials as necessary. The investigation into Mrs. Clinton’s email practices and her handling of classified intelligence has shadowed her presidential campaign, and CNN reported last week that she was likely to be interviewed soon by the F.B.I. Mrs. Clinton said on Sunday that no meeting had been requested or scheduled. Trump: My tax plan is negotiable (Politico 5/8/16) Presumptive GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump said in an interview aired Sunday his tax plan was negotiable, explaining that taxes for the wealthy needed to “go up” — a stance that appears to contradict what’s in his plan. “For the wealthy, I think, frankly, it’s going to go up. And you know what, it really should go up,” Trump said on NBC News’ “Meet the Press.” His said his tax plan, which would lower tax rates for the wealthiest Americans, would be the opening bid of a negotiation with Congress and that his numbers were a “Floor.” Bernie Sanders rides ‘political revolution’ with thousands in N.J. (NJ.com 5/8/16) He’s down but not out, and his supporters are charged up. The math isn’t on U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders’ side when it comes to securing the Democratic nomination, but thousands of eager supporters welcomed the underdog White House hopeful to New Jersey on Sunday and enthusiastically cheered on to “Light back and make a political revolution.” The cheers that filled the room and echoed off the walls of Rutgers University’s Louis Brown Athletic Center in Piscataway turned into roars of support when Sanders preached Lighting income inequality, the war or drugs and racial discrimination. “We have come a very long way in the past year,” Sanders said. “Real change is coming to America.” Nevada has option to vote ‘none of the above’ in 2016 presidential election (Las Vegas Now 5/4/16) The presidential race has narrowed and the only candidates still vying for the nomination are Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. Trump’s the only candidate in the race for the GOP, but for a lot of Republicans, he’s not their first choice. “I vehemently oppose our nominee in some of the comments and issues that he brought up during the campaign,” said U.S. Senator Dean Heller, R-NV. “Things he said about Muslims; issues he brought up about women and the Hispanic community — I just cannot agree with some of his positions, but I will tell you that I will not be voting for Hillary Clinton. I stated that early on, I will not be supporting a candidate that is nothing more than a third term of the Obama administration. So I will be looking else where in November.” Trump: I don’t know how people make it on $7.25 an hour (Politico 5/8/16) Donald Trump said in an interview aired Sunday he wants to see the minimum wage increased but would rather it be done by the states than the federal government. The presumptive GOP presidential nominee’s openness to increases in the minimum wage is a reversal from his previous stance that the minimum wage should not be raised, including when he famously pronounced during a debate last year that wages were “too high.”
Presidential Primary Brief: 280 days until Election Day
28 days until AL Presidential Primary 280 days until Election Day Convention Dates: Republican July 18-21, 2016, Democratic July 25-28, 2016 Weekly Headlines: Skipping debate, Donald Trump gambles with Iowa Pressure grows on Paul to ditch presidential bid Poll: Sanders and Clinton in tight battle for Iowa Press Clips: Sanders challenges Clinton to 3 new debates (Politico 1/27/16) Hours after Hillary Clinton ratcheted up her pressure on him to accept an invitation to an unsanctioned debate on Feb. 4, Bernie Sanders escalated the debate by calling for three new debates. “From the beginning of this campaign Sen. Sanders has called for more debates. Secretary Clinton has not. Now she is asking to change the rules to schedule a debate next week that is not sanctioned by the DNC. Why is that? The answer is obvious. The dynamics of the race have changed and Sen. Sanders has significant momentum,” said Sanders campaign manager Jeff Weaver in a statement on Wednesday night, while Sanders was speaking to a packed audience here. Trump gets backing of S.C. lieutenant governor (Politico 1/27/16) South Carolina Lt. Gov. Henry McMaster has thrown his support behind Donald Trump and will appear alongside him at a rally Wednesday .In a statement from the Trump campaign, McMaster said he is “delighted” to support the businessman. “He is a man of accomplishment and speaks the truth in words everyone can understand, instills confidence in the people about our country’s bright future, and reflects and believes in the strength and determination necessary for success,” McMaster said. “These qualities — and his quiet compassion for those in need — are essential to ‘making America great again.’” Faith and the 2016 campaign (Pew Research Center 1/27/16) The conventional wisdom in American politics has long been that someone who is not religious cannot be elected president of the United States. Most Americans have consistently said that it is important to them that the president have strong religious beliefs. And a new Pew Research Center survey finds that being an atheist remains one of the biggest liabilities that a presidential candidate can have; fully half of American adults say they would be less likely to vote for a hypothetical presidential candidate who does not believe in God, while just 6% say they would be more likely to vote for a nonbeliever. Jeb Bush super PAC cash plummets (Politico 1/31/16) The super PAC dedicated to former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s flagging campaign for the GOP presidential nomination raised $15 million in the second half of the year ― a massive drop- off from the $103 million it raised in the first half ― according to a report filed Sunday night with the Federal Election Commission. The super PAC, Right to Rise, spent $54 million between the beginning of July and the end of last year, leaving it with $59 million in the bank at the beginning of this year, according to the report. Donald Trump reclaims lead in latest Iowa poll (USA Today 1/30/16) Donald Trump has muscled ahead in Iowa, regaining his lead on the brink of the first votes being cast in the 2016 presidential race. Trump stands at 28 percent, while rival Ted Cruz has slid to 23 percent. But there’s still a strong case for Cruz in this race — he’s more popular and respected than Trump, the final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll shows. “The drill-down shows, if anything, stronger alignment with Cruz than Trump, except for the horse race,” said J. Ann :, the pollster for the Iowa Poll. Fact check: The seventh Republican debate (USA Today 1/29/16) The Republican presidential candidates debated in Iowa Jan. 28 and stretched the facts: Sen. Marco Rubio went too far in claiming that Hillary Clinton “wants to put Barack Obama on the Supreme Court.” An Iowa resident suggested such an appointment to Clinton, and she said she’d take it “under advisement.” Rubio also said that the White House “still refuses to acknowledge” that the shooting of a Philadelphia police officer on Jan. 7 “had anything to do with terror.” DNC expected to sanction Feb. 4 debate in New Hampshire (Politico 1/31/16) The Democratic National Committee will formally sanction the Feb. 4 debate in New Hampshire, hosted by MSNBC, the network announced on Sunday. The debate will be held at University of New Hampshire in Durham at 9 p.m. ET and will be moderated by MSNBC anchors Chuck Todd and Rachel Maddow. All three Democratic presidential candidates, former secretary of state Hillary Clinton, Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Gov. Martin O’Malley are expected to attend. Email issues dog Hillary Clinton on eve of Iowa caucuses (New York Times 1/31/16) This is not what Hillary Clinton wanted to discuss the morning before the Iowa caucuses. But, in her brief appearance on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday, Mrs. Clinton found herself defending her use of a private email server while serving as secretary of state and reinforcing that she did not knowingly send or receive classified emails. “She lied about the fact that there is nothing classified on my server. Why as long as you can get away with it?” Carly Fiorina says in ABC’s introduction of Mrs. Clinton, who appeared on the show right before her main rival, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. “She put our national security at risk for her convenience,” Chris Christie says.
Presidential Primary Brief: 442 days until Election Day
188 days until AL Presidential Primary 442 days until Election Day Convention Dates: Republican July 18-21 2016, Democratic July 25-28 2016 Weekly Headlines: Poll: Trump continues his post-debate rise Swing-state poll shows Joe Biden’s appeal 30,000 turn out for Trump’s Alabama pep rally Press Clips: Much of the Republican 2016 field has actually moved to the right on abortion (Bloomberg 8/20/15) The pope went to Paraguay last month, and called the corruption there the “gangrene of a people.” The small, religious country of swamp, scrubland, and savanna is not one that often makes its way into American discussions of policy. But on Sunday, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, a Republican candidate for president, expressed his support for Paraguay’s restrictive abortion laws—even when it means that a child impregnated by rape is forced to give birth. Hillary Clinton’s email: 10 questions (Politico 8/20/15) The steady “drip, drip, drip” of the Hillary Clinton email flap — combined with aggressive spin launched this week by the Clinton campaign — creates confusion about the underlying facts. Is the email controversy a real risk for the Democratic Party front-‐runner? Or as her campaign suggests, is it part of another well-‐orchestrated attack by her Republican enemies? Here’s a rundown of 10 key issues. 2016 campaigns will spend $4.4B on TV ads, but why? (MPR 8/19/15) The 2016 election is already providing a lot of eye-‐popping statistics about the ballooning spending candidates will do in the 2016 election. Among them: Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s super PAC has already raised more — in the first half of a non-‐election year — than Obama’s main super PAC did in all of the 2012 cycle. The latest big TV ad buy in the 2016 presidential election — on Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s behalf, totaling $375,000 — is worth more than seven times the annual median U.S. household income. Ted Cruz supports amending the constitution to end birthright citizenship (National Journal 8/19/15) Ted Cruz set himself apart from much of the 2016 GOP field—including Donald Trump—by saying on Wednesday that he’d support amending the Constitution as a way to end birthright citizenship. Trump set off a firestorm of debate among 2016 Republicans after unveiling an immigration agenda over the weekend that calls for an end to birthright citizenship, a right enshrined in the Constitution by the 14th amendment, which grants citizenship to children of illegal immigrants born in America. Political ads spending to hit $11.4B in 2016 (B&C News 8/18/15) Political advertising is expected to reach a record $11.4 billion in 2016, up 20% from the previous presidential election year, according to a new report from Borrell Associates. While the bulk of the spending will continue to go to TV, Borrell expects this 2016 to be the first election year in which spending on digital advertising tops $1 billion. Adding in 2015 spending, Borrell figures that political advertising in this election cycle will total $16.5 billion. About half the total spending will back the national election, while the other half is on behalf of candidates and issues in local races. Hillary Clinton is rooting for Jeb Bush (Politico 8/17/15) There is an obvious subtext to the panicked effort to purge the GOP of Donald Trump: to allow the party’s true hero to emerge to vanquish Hillary Clinton and restore peace and justice throughout the land. To most GOP elites, of course, the savior is Jeb Bush, complete with the Clark Kent glasses and aw-‐shucks good guy demeanor. The Chamber of Commerce crowd is so convinced that Jeb is the man that it (so far) has placed a bet of more than $100 million on that proposition. There’s just one problem—the Clintons want Jeb Bush to be the GOP nominee, too. Hillary Clinton hits back at Jeb Bush in Iraq row (BBC News 8/16/15) Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton has hit back at one of her Republican rivals, Jeb Bush, over who is responsible for instability in Iraq. On Tuesday Mr. Bush accused the Obama administration of a “premature withdrawal” of US forces from Iraq in 2011, with “grievous” costs. Mrs. Clinton replied by saying it was Mr. Bush’s brother George W Bush who, as president, negotiated a US withdrawal. The US-‐led war in 2003 has been followed by years of turmoil.
Presidential Primary Brief: 463 days until Election Day
209 days until AL Presidential Primary 463 days until Election Day Convention Dates: Republican July 18-21 2016, Democratic July 25-28 2016 Weekly Headlines: Donald Trump leads Jeb Bush in Florida Hillary Clinton to Congress: End the Cuban trade embargo 6 key 2016 developments you missed this weekend Press Clips: A third of all 2016 campaign cash has come from about 60 donations (Chicago Tribune 8/1/15) It took Ted Cruz three months to raise $10 million for his campaign for president, a springtime sprint of $1,000-‐per-‐plate dinners, hundreds of handshakes and a stream of emails asking supporters to chip in a few bucks. One check, from one donor, topped those results. New York hedge fund magnate Robert Mercer’s $11 million gift to a group backing the Texas Republican’s White House bid put him atop a tiny group of millionaires and billionaires whose contributions already dwarf those made by the tens of thousands of people who have given to their favorite presidential candidate. Fox lowers threshold for early debate (Politico 7/28/15) Fox News is opening its 5 p.m. debate to all the announced Republican candidates who fail to make the cut for the Aug. 6 prime-‐time event, removing a requirement that participants reach at least 1 percent in polling. The change amounts to an insurance policy for candidates who were in danger of being disqualified from the vital first debate based on low polls – Carly Fiorina, former New York Gov. George Pataki and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-‐ S.C.). Tom Steyer unfazed by Hillary Clinton’s silence on Keystone (Politico 7/29/15) Tom Steyer’s hard green line is turning soft when it comes to Hillary Clinton. The billionaire climate activist has spent more than $100 million of his personal fortune to support green-‐minded candidates and ballot initiatives in the past Tie years, ruffling the Washington establishment while threatening to torpedo even fellow Democrats who don’t hew the line on controversies like the Keystone XL oil pipeline. But he declined repeatedly Tuesday to criticize Clinton, who still refuses to take a stand on Keystone, and whose just-‐ released initial climate proposal is notably short on specifics about issues like fracking and Arctic drilling. There’s something about Bernie (The Atlantic 7/29/15) There’s no way this man could be president, right? Just look at him: rumpled and scowling, baldpate topped by an entropic nimbus of white hair. Just listen to him: ranting, in his gravelly Brooklyn accent, about socialism. Socialism! And yet here we are: In the biggest surprise of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, this thoroughly implausible man, Bernie Sanders, is a sensation. He is drawing enormous crowds—11,000 in Phoenix, 8,000 in Dallas, 2,500 in Council Bluffs, Iowa—the largest turnout of any candidate from any party in the first-‐to-‐vote primary state. He has raised $15 million in mostly small donations, to Hillary Clinton’s $45 million—and unlike her, he did it without holding a single fundraiser. Right sees 2016 as chance to take over Supreme Court, reverse marriage equality (Huffington Post 7/30/15) Right-‐wing leaders have spent the past month denouncing as illegitimate and tyrannical the Supreme Court’s June 26 decision that declared state laws banning same-‐sex couples from getting married to be unconstitutional. In addition to waging a campaign of resistance to the ruling, right-‐wing activists are looking toward the 2016 presidential elections as a chance to pack the Court with far-‐right justices who will overturn the decision. Journalist Paul Waldman argued recently that 2016 will be a Supreme Court election because right-‐ wing voters will be motivated by anger over their losses on marriage and health care, even though “the Roberts Court has given conservatives an enormous amount to be happy about” -‐-‐ gutting the Voting Rights Act and giving corporations and zillionaires the right to spend as much as they want to influence elections, and much more. Presidential Polls: How to avoid getting fooled (New York Times 7/30/15) Polls with surprising or novel results can be irresistible to journalists and the public alike. It’s newsworthy if public attitudes seem to have changed in some unexpected way. As a result, these findings tend to attract the most public attention and media coverage. Unfortunately, they are the most likely to be spurious. What looks like a shift in public opinion is often just random statistical variation. First, all polls should come with an associated margin of error or some other estimate of uncertainty. Take it seriously. With the sample sizes conventionally used in polling, changes in support of one or two percentage points can’t be distinguished from random variation. Second, given the number of polls that are conducted, outliers are likely to be common. Approximately one in 20 polls of President Obama’s approval rating, for instance, will produce a statistically significant change from the last estimate even if nothing changed.
Presidential primary brief: 505 days until Election Day
252 days until AL Presidential Primary 505 days until Election Day Convention Dates: Republican July 18-21 2016, Democratic July 25-28 2016 Weekly Headlines: Jeb Bush launches 2016 presidential bid Donald Trump announces candidacy for president Swing-state polls suggest Rubio could be trouble for Clinton Polling data as of June 21, 2015. For more polling data visit RealClearPolitics. Press Clips: Republicans tread carefully in criticism of Confederate Flag (NY Times 6/21/15) The massacre of nine African-Americans in a storied Charleston church last week, which thrust the issues of race relations and gun rights into the center of the 2016 presidential campaign, has now added another familiar, divisive question to the emerging contest for the Republican nomination: what to do with the Confederate battle flag that flies on the grounds of the South Carolina Capitol. Walker wows social conservatives with attacks on Obama, puts GOP rivals on notice (Washington Times 6/20/15) Just weeks away from likely entering the 2016 presidential race, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is putting his Republican rivals on notice that he plans to position himself as a get- it-done governor in a field with several members of Congress and former chief executives. Mr. Walker’s latest audition came Saturday night when he keynoted the Faith & Freedom Coalition’s Patriot’s Gala in Washington, carefully mixing withering attacks on President Obama with folksy Midwest humor and a healthy touch of faith and support for Israel. John Bolton to push GOP foreign policy discussion (International Business Times 6/21/15) John Bolton wants the Republicans to talk about foreign policy this year. And he’s building a trifecta political operation — a PAC, a super PAC and a foundation — to push foreign policy into the forefront of the coming presidential primary. Bolton — who served as the ambassador to the United Nations for a little more than a year under President George W. Bush — said he isn’t picking favorites at this point in the GOP Field, though he’s publicly ruled out Sen. Rand Paul as an option. But with so many foreign policy neophytes, Bolton wants to push for them to begin thinking through where they stand on international issues. Many in GOP wary of Donald Trump’s entry into race (CNN 6/17/15) Steer clear of the “stupid zone.” That’s how one Republican consultant is telling the GOP Field to react to Donald Trump’s explosive entry into the White House race. The real estate mogul, Clinging insults and bombast while announcing his run Tuesday, is threatening to upend the party’s singular focus on a primary process that yields the strongest possible nominee and avoids some of the farcical scenes that tarnished candidates in 2012’s circus- style debates. Republican National Committee building its Latino, millennial engagement outreach for 2016 (Latino Post 6/16/15) Recognizing that 60,000 Latinos turn 18 years old every month in the U.S, the Republican National Committee (RNC) has been building its Latino and millennial engagement efforts ahead of the 2016 election. CRNC Deputy Political Director Jennifer Sevilla Korn, who oversees the committee’s strategic initiatives — which includes the Latino, Asian and African American, veterans and faith-community’s vote, recognized that campaigns cannot be won approximately five months before an election and more grassroots efforts are required to gain better relationships with the electorate. Confederate Flag sets off debate in GOP 2016 class (Yahoo News 6/20/15) Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee for president in 2012, called for the immediate removal of the Confederate battle flag from outside the South Carolina Statehouse, scrambling the 2016 GOP presidential contenders into staking a position on a contentious cultural issue. Some still steered clear from the sensitive debate, even after the shooting deaths of nine people in a historic African-American church in Charleston further exposed the raw emotions about the flying the Flag. Ted Cruz: ‘2016 will be the religious liberty election’ (Washington Times 6/18/15) Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas said Thursday that religious liberty is under assault at home and aboard, and he said that the 2016 presidential race will be “the religious liberty election.” Mr. Cruz is among a handful of GOP candidates who are trying to court evangelical Christians in the run-up to the nomination contest. He told the religious conservatives who turned out for the Faith and Freedom Coalition’s “Road to Majority” conference here in Washington, D.C., that they are key to the GOP’s hopes of capturing the White House and turning the country around. Rick Perry describes Charleston shooting as an ‘accident’ (CBS News 6/19/15) Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry characterized the recent shooting in Charleston as an “accident” during an interview on Friday, accusing President Obama of using the massacre, which claimed nine lives, as a pretext for pushing a gun control agenda. “This is the MO of this administration anytime there is an accident like this,” Perry said during an appearance on Newsmax TV. The former Texas governor said the president “doesn’t like guns,” so “he uses every opportunity” to tighten restrictions on gun ownership. Video of the appearance was posted on YouTube by Right Wing Watch. Poll: Clinton’s honesty and trustworthy problem extends to swing states (CNN 6/17/15) A majority of voters in three key presidential swing states view Hillary Clinton as not honest and trustworthy, according to a new poll out Wednesday. The Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll finds that by margins of 8 to 14 percentage points voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania are skeptical of Clinton’s trustworthiness. In Florida, 51% of voters hold the negative view of Clinton, compared to 43% who feel she is trustworthy. In Ohio, 53% of voters find Clinton not trustworthy, compared to 40% who do. And in Pennsylvania, 54% of voters don’t find her honest, while 40% do.
Presidential primary brief: 512 days until Election Day
Welcome to the Monday presidential primary brief provided by Alabama Today. Every week you can find your latest headlines on the presidential primary races as we count down the days until Election Day. 259 days until AL Presidential Primary 512 days until Election Day Convention Dates: Republican July 18-21, 2016; Democratic July 25-28, 2016 Weekly Headlines: CNN announces final March debate in Florida Iowa GOP votes to kill its presidential straw poll GOP adds two ‘forums’ to Aug. 6 debate amid pressure over criteria Polling data as of June 14, 2015. For more polling data visit RealClearPolitics. Press Clips: Jeb Bush’s 18 month shadow campaign (Politico 6/14/15) The 400 amped-up Republicans booed when Jeb Bush swiped at Hillary Clinton’s “breathtaking” statement that businesses don’t create jobs. They nodded respectfully when he promised a better tomorrow. “This country can lead the world. That’s what this election is about,” Bush told the crowd, sounding every bit like a man with his eye on the White House. “It’s not about the past. It’s about what the future can look like.” Lindsey Graham aims to be first bachelor president of modern era (CBS News 6/12/15) Lindsey Graham: veteran South Carolina senator, long-shot presidential candidate, lifelong bachelor. The first two labels are what made Graham a national figure, but all anyone wants to discuss recently is the third. If Graham wins the presidency in 2016, he’ll be only the third bachelor ever elected to the of\ice. (The first, history buffs might recall, was James Buchanan. Grover Cleveland was a bachelor when he was elected but later married while in the White House.) Bill Clinton dismisses attacks on Hillary (Politico 6/14/15) Bill Clinton is dismissing the controversy surrounding Hillary Clinton and their Clinton Foundation, insisting he trusts his wife “with my life and have on more than one occasion.” “A — I know her. B — I know the truth. And C — I trust the American people,” Clinton said in an interview aired Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.” And the controversy, he said, is “not happening 15 hours before the election.” John Kasich’s Wall Street ties could haunt 2016 bid (Erie TV News 6/8/15) Ohio Gov. John Kasich loves talking about his record in of\ice, his knack for balancing the budget and his controversial decision to back Medicaid expansion. But there’s one part of his résumé he’s less inclined to discuss: the years he spent as a senior executive at Lehman Brothers. Kasich joined Lehman’s investment banking division as managing director in 2001, working there until the firm’s collapse in September 2008 unleashed global panic and served as the catalyst for the financial crisis. 5 takeaways from Clinton’s relaunch rally (Politico 6/13/15) Hillary Clinton, who has spent most of the early campaign touting her virtues as a note- taking listener, had lots and lots to say — and then some more — during her epic 2016 kickoff speech on Roosevelt Island. Much of it was the expected proto-State of the Union stuff — the entire last half was a policy agenda full of vague specifics (“I will rewrite the tax code so it rewards hard work and investments here at home, not quick trades or stashing pro\its overseas”) and wonked-out data points geared to justify government investment (“eighty percent of the brain is developed by age three”). Donald Trump says his decision on a 2016 presidential run will make ‘a lot of people … very unhappy (New York Daily News 6/8/15) Billionaire businessman Donald Trump said Saturday that he would announce June 16 whether he’d run for President. “I think a lot of people are going to be very happy,” Trump said at a Republican convention in Raleigh, N.C., on Saturday. The real estate mogul referred to to his potential rivals as “clowns” in remarks to The News & Observer. Trump, who considered a presidential bid in 2012 but ultimately signed on to another season of “The Apprentice,” formed an exploratory committee in March and has hired staff members in key states. Ben Carson: ‘I don’t want to talk about the gay issue’ (Politico 6/12/15) Ben Carson says he would rather talk about discrimination against Christians than discrimination against gays. In an interview with Fox News on Wednesday, the Republican presidential candidate said that he was “irritated” by the comparison between same-sex marriage rights and the civil rights movement because, for example, there have not been any signs that said ‘everybody else here, and gay people have to drink at this fountain.’” Jim Webb plans 3-day Iowa tour (The Des Moines Register 6/13/15) Potential presidential candidate Jim Webb is visiting several Iowa towns during an upcoming three-day trip, including Urbandale, Des Moines and Grand Junction. The stops range from a wind farm tour, to a \lag day celebration and breakfast. The former U.S. senator from Virginia has been in the state seven days in 2015. During his most recent visit in early May, he visited Sioux City for a stop at the Sioux City Boy’s Club and a meeting with local Democratic leaders. Carly Fiorina: It’s time for the GOP to reclaim the term feminist (Politico 6/11/15) Running as the only female presidential contender in a party still dogged for its “war on women,” Carly Fiorina on Thursday laid out her vision of the new feminist. In the six weeks since she launched her White House run, Fiorina has focused much of her energy attacking Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, taking on a much more aggressive posture than the rest of the Republican field.
Presidential primary brief: 526 days until Election Day
Welcome to the Monday presidential primary brief provided by Alabama Today. Every week you can find your latest headlines on the presidential primary races as we count down the days until Election Day. 266 days until AL Presidential Primary 519 days until Election Day Convention Dates: Republican July 18-21, 2016, Democratic July 25-28, 2016 Weekly Headlines: Lindsey Graham announces presidential candidacy Lincoln Chafee announces presidential bid Rick Perry launches 2016 presidential campaign For more polling data visit RealClearPolitics. Press Clips: On Scott Walker’s performance in Iowa: ‘Unless he really screws up, he should win’ (Business Insider 6/7/15) Scott Walker, a likely Republican presidential contender who is riding high in polls in the early voting state of Iowa, was literally the leader of the pack on Saturday at a gathering of 2016 White House hopefuls. Walker, the governor of neighboring Wisconsin, joined U.S. Senator Joni Ernst at the head of a parade of about 300 motorcycle riders who traveled 39 miles (62 km)to Ernst’s inaugural “Roast and Ride,” a political event combining barbecue and the roar of Harley-‐Davidsons. Christie calls Clinton’s voter law critique ‘ridiculous’ (Politico 6/7/15) New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie says Hillary Clinton’s attack on state voter identification and registration laws is “ridiculous.” “She doesn’t know what she’s talking about,” the Republican governor and likely presidential candidate said in an interview aired Sunday for CBS’s “Face the Nation,” noting his state has early voting. U.S. authorities unlikely to stop 2016 election fundraising free-‐for-‐all (Reuters 6/4/15) White House hopefuls raking in record amounts of money in the 2016 U.S. presidential race are already being accused by watchdog groups of breaking campaign fundraising laws. But the U.S. Department of Justice is unlikely to prosecute possible violations and halt the funding free-for‐all, say current and former department officials. With deadlock in the campaign finance regulator, the Federal Election Commission, watchdog groups are calling on the Justice Department to investigate contenders such as Republican Jeb Bush, who they say has conducted a charade of “non-candidacy” to skirt federal election fundraising laws. Bush’s campaign said on Thursday he would announce his White House bid on June 15. Louisiana Gov. Jindal to make announcement on 2016 presidential election on June 24 (Bayou Buzz 6/3/15) Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, a possible GOP presidential candidate, will make a “major announcement” on the 2016 race on June 24 in New Orleans. That’s according to Jindal’s chief political adviser, Timmy Teepell. Jindal had announced a campaign exploratory committee on May 18. If Jindal decides to run, he’d join a crowded Republican primary that already includes nine major candidates, with more expected to join the fray. Bernie Sanders 2016: Young Americans Say They Support Socialism, But Do They Know What It Is? (International Business Times 6/4/15) Trey Rittersbach doesn’t know Bernie Sanders, but he knows what socialism is – kind of. “It’s redistributing the wealth,” the 19-year-old New York University sophomore said Thursday from a bench in Washington Square Park, then paused to reconsider. “I guess that might be more Communism.” Rittersbach, a Ralph Nader fan with Republican leanings, tried again: “It’s acting to benefit the greater good over personal gain. Capitalism is more personal gain over the greater good.” Christie’s last question on 2016: “Do I want to do it?” (KTYX CBS 19 6/7/15) For Chris Christie, the final question on a potential 2016 bid is: “Do I want to do it?” The New Jersey governor has said he’ll decide whether to join the already-crowded field of candidates vying for the Republican nomination this month as New Jersey wraps up its legislative session. But he’s still weighing what is in his heart. “I go through all the different factors that I need to consider. And when I’m done, I check that off and I move to the next factor. And the factor I’m down to now, John, is do I want to do it? Do I want to do it? In my heart, is this something that I really, absolutely want to do?” he told “Face the Nation” host John Dickerson. Draft Warren groups suspending operations (The Hill 6/2/15) Run Warren Run, an organized, long-‐shot effort to encourage Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) to run for president, will close its doors next week as their hero continues to unequivocally decline those calls. The campaign by Democracy for America and MoveOn.org Political Action will suspend operations Monday after delivering a petition to Warren with 365,000 signatures asking her to run. But the gesture isn’t likely to change the Massachusetts Democrat’s mind, as she’s been resolute in statements rejecting a possible bid. As many progressive Democrats worried about Democratic front‐runner Hillary Clinton’s liberal chops, they coalesced around Warren as their ideal choice. In its six months, Run Warren Run launched feld of\ices in both Iowa and New Hampshire, and held hundreds of rallies to support its effort.
