“Crystal Ball” suggests Marco Rubio offer John Kasich VP spot in exchange for his backing
As Marco Rubio continues to gain steam in the race for the Republican nomination, a leading political expert is looking into his crystal ball to make a few predictions. Larry Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics and editor in chief of “Sabato’s Crystal Ball,” suggested Rubio “consider a daring gambit.” The bold move? Openly offering John Kasich “the vice presidential slot in exchange for Ohio governor’s support.” In the Saturday “Crystal Ball” piece, Sabato and his team said Ronald Reagan did something similar in his 1976 campaign. It was right before the Republican convention, and “while it didn’t work out it shook up conventional wisdom. It is a tactic worth considering.” The “Crystal Ball” story continues: “If Rubio can somehow push Kasich out after Bush’s exit, it seems reasonable to think that the lion’s share of their supporters would go to him, and in a three-way race, that could be enough for Rubio to start getting the victories he has failed to secure so far. However, Kasich seems inclined to continue to run, and the Republican power brokers who favor a Rubio-Kasich ticket probably won’t take the risks necessary to make this happen.” Kasich came in fifth in South Carolina on Saturday, with 7.6 percent support. Jeb Bush came in fourth with 7.8 percent of the vote. Bush announced Saturday he was bowing out of the race. Kasich is still plugging along, on Sunday telling John Dickerson on Face the Nation that his team is “going to go on March the 1st to a number of states where we think we’re going to do well.” “So it’s a matter of continuing on … and being able to take advantage of grassroots,” he said on the show. “We now have some Bush people who have come our way, both from a political point of view and a fundraising point of view and we’re going to keep struggling to make sure that we can be out there, keep putting the resources to be in a position of doing well.” Rubio came in second in South Carolina with 22.5 percent of the vote. He now heads to Nevada, where Republicans will caucus on Feb. 23. Recent polling averages show Rubio is battling it out with Ted Cruz for second in Nevada.
Email insights: New Alabama TV ads highlight Hillary Clinton’s fight for underserved communities
The Hillary Clinton campaign sent out an email Wednesday announcing its first two TV ads in Alabama. The first, titled “Broken,” targets African-Americans. In it, Clinton says racial inequalities need to be addressed and that “we have to face up to the hard truth of injustice and systemic racism.” “Something is just fundamentally broken when African-Americans are more likely to be arrested by police and sentenced to longer prison terms for doing the same thing that whites do,” Clinton says as the words “Fundamentally Broken” flash across the screen. The second ad, “For Us,” highlights Clinton’s record of fighting on behalf of American families. The new ads will start running Thursday in Montgomery, a Clinton consultant told Alabama Today. Clinton faces Democratic challenger Bernie Sanders in the March 1 SEC Primary where the two will vie for the state’s 58 delegates. Read the full email and watch the new two new ads below: Hillary for America today released its first two television ads in Alabama, including “For Us,” a new ad from the campaign that focuses on Hillary Clinton’s lifetime of fighting to achieve results for families. The ad highlights Clinton’s role in enacting the Children’s Health Insurance Program, which has provided insurance for 8 million kids, as well as her tenure as Secretary of State. It also emphasizes her commitment to raise the minimum wage, lower prescription drug costs, and ease the student debt burden. In the second ad, “Broken,” Hillary Clinton discusses the fundamentally broken criminal justice system that disproportionately hurts African American families. Clinton calls for investments in education, health care and jobs to “counter generations of neglect.” Since the beginning of the campaign, Clinton has said we have to come to terms with the hard truths about race and justice in America, and today she outlined her agenda to break down all the barriers holding Americans back and to combat systemic racism and build ladders of economic opportunity for African American families. The 30 second spots begin running in the Montgomery media market on Thursday. Watch “Broken” Watch “For Us”
SEC Primary beckons presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders to Alabama
Democratic presidential candidate U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders is making his first campaign stop in Alabama on Monday for a rally to commemorate the birthday of civil rights activist Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. The rally is open to the public and will begin at 7 p.m. in Birmingham’s Historic Boutwell Memorial Auditorium. Sanders will take the opportunity to discuss how he is “fighting for Dr. King’s ideals,” a man he marched with during the historic “March on Washington” in 1963. Joining Sanders will be “two champions for economic and racial justice,” Dr. Cornel West and Ohio State Sen. Nina Turner. “We are excited to have Senator Sanders make a campaign stop in Alabama, and we want to welcome him to our great state,” Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill said in a news release. “I am thrilled with how the SEC Primary has developed and what it means for our people to have personal interaction with these candidates.” With Alabama’s primaries moved to March 1 to be part of the SEC Primary, more presidential candidates have been making stops in the Yellowhammer State to woo voters. More will likely visit as the field narrows after the Iowa and New Hampshire caucuses, the first in the nation. “Since the March primary legislation passed, the Democratic front runner and eight of the top Republican candidates have made campaign stops in Alabama, which is unheard of for our state,” Merrill wrote. “As Secretary of State, I will continue to position Alabama and the South as a place where Presidential candidates are willing to make an effort to visit and meet our remarkable people.” Rumors suggest that the Sanders campaign is also planning a stop in Montgomery at Alabama State University as part of the candidate’s tour of Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCU), though no date has been set for that event. “If this shows anything, it shows that Alabama is a state that everyone wants to do well in,” Merrill said. “Mr. Sanders wasn’t expected to make a stop here, so we are very excited to have him.”
John Merrill and the road to the SEC primary
The road to bringing a multitude of presidential candidates to Alabama began in 2014 for Secretary of State John H. Merrill, who championed the idea for the state. In July that year, Merrill received a telephone call from Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp. Along with congratulating Merrill on his recent victory in the Secretary of State primary race, Kemp pitched the idea of establishing an SEC Primary: – a primary that would include all of the Southern states associated with college football’s Southeastern Conference. “The purpose for that was so that our voice would be louder and our vote would count more in the selection process than it had previously,” Merrill said. “I really wasn’t overly enthusiastic about it.” In December that year, after winning the Secretary of State position a month before, Merrill was invited by the Pew Charitable Trust to attend a meeting in Santa Monica, California, where he had the opportunity to meet with other Secretaries of State, former and recently elected. There Merrill struck up a conversation with former Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz about presidential politics. Merrill recalled Shultz confiding that “unless an Iowan meets a presidential candidate at least eight times we’re not voting for them, because we don’t feel like we’ve had a chance to get to know them.” Merrill noted how rare the opportunity to meet a presidential candidate is for Alabamians and decided it was time to act. “I’m going to put our people in a stronger position than they’ve been before to participate in this process,” Merrill said. From there, Merrill began working together with Kemp and officials in the Alabama Legislature in an effort to move the state’s primary date to March. Legislation was required for such an effort, so Merrill enlisted Democratic Sen. Quinton Ross of Montgomery to sponsor the bill in the Senate and Republican Rep. Ed Henry in Clarksville to sponsor the bill in the House. The bill was passed and signed into law by Gov. Robert Bentley. In August 2015, Merrill attended the Red State Gathering in Atlanta and had the opportunity to meet nine of the top 10 Republican presidential candidates. “I just started selling Alabama,” Merrill said. “We met with all of them and Ted Cruz was the first to take us up on that offer.” Less than two weeks later, Republican presidential candidates John Kasich, Donald Trump, Scott Walker, Dr. Ben Carson and Jeb Bush all held rallies in Alabama. Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton would also visit the state, as well as Sen. Marco Rubio and Mike Huckabee. According to Merrill, Trump’s rally in Mobile was the largest in the nation held, to-date, during this election cycle. Further, the ensuing media coverage and influx of tourist dollars was “remarkable” in comparison to the $16,000 spent to host the event. “That’s unparalleled and unprecedented in the history of our state,” Merrill said. Currently, the SEC Primary as envisioned by Merrill and his cohorts includes Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, Oklahoma and Virginia, all of which will hold primaries on March 1. In conjunction with the political power it gives to Alabama voters, the move has also provided Alabama legislators with a stronger voice in presidential politics. Governor Bentley formally endorsed Ohio Governor Kasich, Merrill has endorsed former Arkansas Governor Huckabee, U.S. Rep. Mo Brooks endorsed Cruz, a multitude of state legislators have endorsed Trump, and most state Democrats have endorsed former Secretary of State Clinton. “It’s important to me that our people have the chance to meet them,” Merrill said. “That’s what I have been excited about trying to do.”
SEC Primary draws Ted Cruz back to the Yellowhammer State
Surging recently in several Republican presidential polls, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz will host two upcoming rallies in Alabama this week in Mobile and Trussville thanks to the ongoing draw of the state’s March 1 SEC Primary. The campaign for the Texas Senator announced Monday that following Tuesday’s night’s Las Vegas debate, Cruz will host 12 rallies in 12 days before the Christmas holiday across seven states as part of the “Take Off with Ted” tour focusing heavily on those states belonging to SEC Primary. Throughout the tour, Cruz will visit Minnesota, Virginia, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma — stopping by Mobile on Saturday, Dec. 19 at the Daphne Civic Center and heading to Trussville Sunday, Dec. 20 for another rally at the Trussville Civic Center. Doors will open at the Daphne Civic Center at 1:00 p.m. with the program kicking-off at 2:30 p.m. on Saturday. The Texas Republican will head to the Trussville Civic Center Sunday, where the doors open again at 1:00 p.m., with the program beginning at 2:00 p.m. “Our ‘Take Off with Ted’ barnstorming of the March 1st states will fortify our national organization and position us to win on Super Tuesday,” said Rick Tyler, Cruz campaign spokesman, in a statement. “We’ve always believed that the GOP primary calendar gives Cruz an early advantage so we have spent significant time in those states and have built an army of conservative volunteers to get out the vote just like the ones we have unleashed in the first four early states.” Cruz’s visit is yet another victory for Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill who moved up Alabama’s primary to March in hopes of giving the state a more pivotal role in deciding the respective party’s presidential nominees. Since announcing his candidacy, Cruz has previously visited Birmingham, Huntsville, Pelham and Tuscaloosa and his wife, Heidi Cruz, has made stops in Hoover and Mobile.
Jeb Bush doing nicely among Birmingham business leaders in 2016 fundraising
With Alabama’s inclusion in the new March 1 “SEC primary,” the scramble is on as never before when it comes to gathering votes – and campaign cash – for president in the Yellowhammer State. The big winner so far, according to Birmingham Business Review? Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Bush has raised the tidy sum of $145,000 from within the Magic City metro area, just edging out retired neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson, who took in about $138,000. Carson, however, leads the statewide money race with $272,567 per the Federal Elections Commission, and leads most recent state primary polls. Bush and Carson account for about $491,122 combined so far by Alabama political donors. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is third among Birmingham fundraisers, with $68,000 raised as of December. He has raised $138,310 in Alabama to date. Of the state’s top 10 political benefactors in Alabama, whose contributions amount to $1,781,161, less than 10 percent, or $138,734 went to Democrats. Hillary Rodham Clinton has raised $125,341 in the state, while her main challenger for the Democratic nomination, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, took in a modest $23,393. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee rounded out the top five in Alabama, collecting $43,319 from Alabama-based boosters.
Marco Rubio to hold rally in Guntersville on Tuesday
Republican Marco Rubio is bringing his presidential campaign to Alabama on Tuesday. The Florida senator will hold a rally in Guntersville that is open to the public. The event at the Guntersville Recreation Center will begin at 4:15 p.m. The Alabama secretary of state’s office said Rubio will also attend two private fundraisers in Alabama. The rally is part of a sweep through the South that includes a stop in South Carolina earlier in the day. More than 10 presidential candidates have visited Alabama as southern states band together for the so-called “SEC Primary” on March 1. Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton will also be in the state Tuesday for an event marking the 60th anniversary of the Montgomery Bus Boycott. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
Complex, yet fascinating: A primer on Alabama’s March presidential primary
With the 2016 election less than a year away, and the first caucuses within the next 90 days, now is a good time for a review of what could be an interesting, yet complex, turn of events. Much of the situation will depend on the state of the Republican field come March 1. Here is a primer of Alabama’s primary delegation process: Alabama’s Presidential Preference Primary is March 1, 2016, and does not require voters to declare a party preference when registering to vote. The Yellowhammer State has an open primary, meaning any registered voter can vote in the primary for any party. Voters choose the primary in which to vote, and they are not required to be a party member in order to vote. According to the state Department of Elections, requirements to vote in Alabama is as follows: each applicant is a citizen of the United States; is an Alabama resident; a minimum of 18 years old on or before Election Day; is not barred from voting by a disqualifying felony conviction, and has not been declared mentally incompetent by a court. The state does not permit online voter registration, early voting or “no excuse” absentee voting. Since 2014, to cast a ballot in Alabama requires valid photo identification at the polls. Alabama’s delegation is 26 at-large (numbered At-Large #1, At-Large #2, etc.), 21-Congressional District and three automatic (“unbound”) for 50 total, which will be allocated proportionally, as a what is known as winner-take-most. The threshold for any candidate to qualify for delegates is 20 percent, both statewide and within each congressional district. This follows Republican National Committee rules stating elections held before March 15 will be assigned proportionately. Some conservatives believe the rule was designed to help well-funded candidates (establishment favorites) who are in the race for the long term, and is an obstacle for grassroots candidates desperate for a primary win to rally supporters (and funds). Delegates are bound to their qualifying presidential candidates until either a candidate withdraws from the race for the Republican Party nomination and releases the delegates or if – by a two-thirds vote – the total number of delegates bound to that candidate become “unbound” at the national convention. That closes the door to any potential abuse but allows just enough for delegates to wiggle out of a pledge, in a scenario with multiple ballots/votes to determine the nominee at the convention. Enforcement of original pledges is left to the head of the Alabama delegation and/or the RNC secretary. While the system is designed to release delegates if a battle on the convention floor occurs, there is no mention of a specific number of ballots taken before a delegate can be released. Compared to four years ago, there are no other substantive rule changes in Alabama elections, but unlike other early primary states – New Hampshire, for one – proportional allocation of Alabama delegates come from two different groups: at-large statewide and congressional district delegates. To get either type, candidates must meet the 20 percent threshold, twice the limit set in New Hampshire. If a single candidate receives a majority of the Alabama’s vote, then he or she will receive all 26 at-large delegates. If a candidate receives a simple majority in any Alabama Congressional District, he or she will win three of the district’s delegates. The Alabama GOP Delegate Information Process datasheet outlines that a delegate must vote for the candidate they pledged on their qualifying form. If the candidate releases his delegates/alternates, then they can vote for a different person. As it stands, with such a large field of Republican presidential candidates – now standing at 15 – the chances are unlikely that a single candidate will receive a majority either statewide or in congressional districts. However, there is a possibility that the southern GOP contest – the so-called “SEC Primary” – will be a game changer in the 2016 presidential race. There is a likelihood the field will narrow after the early primary states of New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. On the other hand, with a big group of candidates remaining March 1, it will substantially limit the probability of the rise of a consensus candidate. The bottom line: it might be a good bet that one person does not emerge on Super Tuesday with all 47 Alabama delegates. That said, there is a path (albeit a backdoor one) for a candidate to receive a majority of Alabama delegates, even in a large field. One only needs to meet the 20-percent threshold, either statewide or within a congressional district. If that is the case, where a particular candidate meets the 20 percent bar statewide, then they will control half (+1) of delegates, regardless of the results in the congressional districts. Understandably, Alabama’s allotment system has the potential to cause a considerable amount of political turmoil, overshadowing what should be a somewhat organized process. With a smaller number of candidates, though, the odds of one person picking up 20 percent of the vote increases. And as that number reaches two – it becomes almost assured that one (or the other) will meet the 50 percent threshold, receiving all delegates. Another case is when the vote triggers a potential winner-take-most scenario. In that situation, there would be a 20 percent bar for one and a 50 percent threshold for the other. With the current state of the race, there is a likelihood that more than one candidate will reach the 20 percent, thereby qualifying for delegates. Here is where math comes in. Since it is statistically impossible for a field of over five viable candidates to receive more than 20 percent each, the overall effect is somewhat limiting. Alabama’s delegate allocation system promotes narrowing the field of contenders – or at least accelerating the winnowing already taking place before March 1. Therefore, if (or when) these conditions are met, 26 at-large delegates will be spread out among candidates who get at least 20 percent of the vote. As for
Mike Huckabee to make campaign stop in Alabama Thursday
Republican presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee is visiting Alabama. Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill announced that the former Arkansas governor will stop at the Alabama Republican Party headquarters in Birmingham on Thursday. Huckabee will present his petition and filing fee to Republican Chairwoman Terry Lathan to appear on the Alabama ballot. At least eight presidential candidates have visited Alabama ahead of next year’s March 1 southeastern regional primary. Southern states have banded together in the so-called “SEC Primary” to try to draw more interest from presidential contenders. Ohio Gov. John Kasich held a rally in Mobile Tuesday evening. Republished with permission of the Associated Press.
State chairs Will Ainsworth, Bill Armistead will helm Marco Rubio’s AL campaign
The White House campaign of Sen. Marco Rubio announced late last week that two Republican statehouse stalwarts will co-chair Rubio’s presidential efforts in Alabama. Former state GOP chairman and state Sen. Bill Armistead and Rep. Will Ainsworth will serve as state chairs for the junior senator from Florida as he fights his way through a deep Republican field eager for Southern votes in 2016’s new “SEC primary.” “It is a great honor to be chosen by Senator Marco Rubio to co-chair his presidential campaign in Alabama,” said Armistead in a statement. “He is not only the future of the Republican Party but also the future of America. “If you have seen the debates you know that he, better than anyone else, is the best candidate to debate and defeat Hillary. I encourage all conservatives to rally around Senator Rubio and together we will elect him as our next President,” said an effusive Armistead. Rep. Ainsworth, elected to the state House in 2014’s conservative-leaning midterms, agreed heartily with Armistead while also taking a jab at former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, whose poll numbers in Alabama and around the nation have lagged of late. “I’m excited and humbled to be Co-Chairing Alabama for Marco Rubio,” said Ainsworth. “If we continue to elect the leaders of yesterday, Washington will never change and that’s why I proudly support Marco Rubio. Marco’s plan for a New American Economy will create jobs and ensure that our country remains vibrant in the 21st Century.” Alabama’s presidential preference primaries – like that of Tennessee, Virginia, Arkansas, Georgia and Texas, united for the first time in modern history – are set to take place March 1st. The most recent available national poll, released by Public Policy Polling on November 1, placed Rubio in 4th place with 10 percent of the vote, behind nontraditional candidates Donald Trump and Ben Carson as well as Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz.
Jeb Bush cancels plans to tailgate in Tuscaloosa
The Republican presidential campaign of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush said Monday he won’t be on hand for an upcoming tailgate in Tuscaloosa, after all. Bush had earlier announced plans to take in the Saturday SEC matchup between LSU and ‘Bama on the campus of University of Alabama. Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill issued a memo welcoming to Bush to the Yellowhammer State, and expressing his gratitude that more candidates – Republican and Democratic – were stopping by on the campaign trail. The moves comes amid a shift in the Bush campaign toward a humbler, “pared down” approach since its fundraising momentum began to slow down this summer. Bushworld was criticized in some quarters for its high “burn rate,” or ratio of spending to contributions. The tailgate outreach was part of Bush’s effort to make gains in the new so-called “SEC Primary,” in which a new bloc of Southern states will hold their primaries on the same day, March 15. “When this many presidential candidates are choosing to visit and re-visit Alabama, it is proof the SEC Primary is working,” Merrill said. “The main goal of this effort is to create an environment that forces candidates to appeal to an even larger and more complete constituency than they currently do, and I am proud to see our state receiving the attention it deserves.”
Presidential hopeful John Kasich to return to Alabama to campaign
Republican presidential hopeful John Kasich will return to the Yellowhammer state next week in hopes of wooing SEC primary voters. Governor Kasich will be at Wintzell’s Oyster House in Mobile (605 Dauphin St.) for a rally at 5 p.m. Tuesday. During the event, Kasich will present his petition and filing fee to Republican Chairwoman Terry Lathan and make his pitch as to why Alabamians should cast their ballots for him in March. Kasich was last in Alabama in August, when he was endorsed by Gov. Robert Bentley. Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill announced Kasich’s upcoming visit in a news release Wednesday morning. Along with several other southeastern states, the Alabama Legislature passed a bill to move Alabama’s presidential primary to March 1 in what is now being referred to as the SEC Primary. “We’re excited to welcome Governor Kasich back in Alabama! With the assistance and full support of the Alabama Legislature, one of the most significant things we have done in the Secretary of State’s Office is change the primary date to March 1,” Merrill said. “Since the March primary legislation passed, two of the top Democratic candidates and seven of the top Republican candidates have made campaign stops in Alabama, which is unheard of for our state. When Presidential candidates are choosing to visit and re-visit Alabama, it is proof the SEC Primary is working.” Other candidates who have visited Alabama recently include former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Dr. Ben Carson, former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, Sen. Ted Cruz, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Sen. Rand Paul, Sen. Bernie Sanders, former Sen. Rick Santorum, Donald Trump and before bowing out of the race Gov. Scott Walker.
