As of dawn on Tuesday, the latest National Hurricane Center forecast track for Hurricane Ian has nudged further eastward, which will take it into the coast around the Tampa Bay area within the next day.
At this time, it appears that Hurricane Ian will be more of a Florida Peninsula event rather than a Florida panhandle event and is not expected to significantly impact Alabama.
Ian is now over the western tip of Cuba. Winds have increased to 125 miles per hour, making Ian a category three hurricane. It is expected to strengthen to a category four hurricane once it gets back over the gulf waters. The latest NHC forecast track brings Ian into the coast near or just north of Tampa Bay tomorrow night.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Bonita Beach to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.
Remember that with a hurricane, the storm surge will affect a much wider range of the coast than will get landfall. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Anclote River southward to Flamingo and Tampa Bay.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West, Flamingo to Bonita Beach, Suwannee River to the Anclote River, Volusia/Brevard County Line south to Jupiter Inlet, and Lake Okeechobee.
Ian is expected to only spend a few hours over western Cuba, so it is not expected to weaken in this short period over land. The eye of the storm should be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later this morning.
While Ian will strengthen to a category four storm, the NHC is currently predicting it to weaken back to a category 3 when it comes ashore on the Florida coast near Tampa Bay.
Florida residents are advised to stay out of the water due to life-threatening storm surge and the high likelihood of dangerous rip tides. Residents of the Florida coast from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region should listen to the advice given by local officials. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area in west-central Florida beginning tomorrow morning, with tropical storm conditions expected as late today. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and South Florida during the day today, spreading into central to northern Florida tomorrow and Thursday and the Southeast by Friday and Saturday, likely causing flash, urban, and small stream flooding.
Considerable flooding is expected across Central Florida into southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina, with significant, prolonged river flooding expected across central to northern Florida.
Southwest Alabama is not expected to be heavily impacted by Hurricane Ian.
The surf will be rough along the Central Gulf Coast as far west as Gulf Shores, including a high danger of rip tides.
Parts of Alabama could see some rain from the remnants of the storm system this weekend, with a higher likelihood of rain on the eastern half of the state.
Be aware that construction materials like plywood, roofing shingles, and lumber could be in short supply in the coming days and weeks, particularly if the damage is severe in Florida, so please postpone building and remodeling projects if possible so that supply chains can focus resources on what is likely to be a lengthy repair and rebuilding process in Florida.
Alabama Today will continue to monitor the situation as conditions change. Please keep our friends in Florida in your prayers.
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