Presidential Primary Brief: 210 days until Election Day

2016 Presidential Primary Brief_14 March 2016

210 days until Election Day

Convention Dates: Republican July 18-21 2016, Democratic July 25-28 2016

Weekly Headlines:

2016 Primary Brief_GOP Polls_11 April 2016

2016 Primary Brief_Dem Polls_11 April 2016

Press Clips:

Sanders: Clinton’s judgment ‘clearly lacking’ (Politico 4/10/16)

Bernie Sanders’s attacks on his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton are shifting from qualifications for president to her judgment. “She may have the experience to be president of the United States. No one can argue that,” Sanders said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “But in terms of her judgment, something is clearly lacking.” And on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Sanders said: “I have my doubts about what kind of president she would make.”

Bernie Sanders Is Even Less Competitive Than He Appears (FiveThirtyEight 4/8/16)

Bernie Sanders’s supporters are fond of the hypothesis that Democratic super-delegates, the elected leaders and party officials who currently support Hillary Clinton by a lopsided- doesn’t-even-begin-to-describe-it 469 to 31, are going to bow to the “will of the people” if Sanders ends up winning more pledged delegates than Clinton by June. There’s just one hiccup in this logic: Sanders fans seem to be conflating the pledged delegate count and the “will of the voters,” when in fact the two are far from interchangeable.

Cruz: Trump triggers general election ‘bloodbath’ (Politico 4/9/16)

Ted Cruz on Saturday offered his most detailed electability pitch to date as he urged a crowd of influential center-right Republican donors and activists to rally behind his campaign. Donald Trump’s nomination would mean a “bloodbath of Walter Mondale proportions — double digits everywhere” in a general election, Cruz warned at the Republican Jewish Coalition gathering. (Incumbent Ronald Reagan carried 49 of the 50 states in defeating Mondale in the 1984 presidential race.)

Donald Trump leads, but Ted Cruz keeps winning tricky delegate contests (Chicago Tribune 4/10/16)

Donald Trump still leads the Republican presidential race, but Ted Cruz continues to beat him at a trickier game: securing convention delegates in states that don’t hold caucuses or primaries. Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Sen. Bernie Sanders failed to make any headway in his delegate deficit, despite winning Saturday’s caucuses in Wyoming. The events in neighboring states underscored the unpredictability of the race for the delegates who will choose the presidential nominees. If Trump fails to secure the 1,237 delegates needed to win the GOP nomination before the July convention in Cleveland, his missteps in the more obscure delegate contests such as Colorado’s could cost him a victory.

Obama Climate Change Legacy Hangs In The Balance As 2016 Presidential Election Approaches (International Business Times 4/6/16)

U.S. President Barack Obama in his second term launched a host of measures aimed at slashing America’s greenhouse gas emissions and boosting the use of renewable energy. Yet a handful of those policies could soon unravel if a Republican wins the White House in November or the GOP maintains control of Congress, political experts say. It’s widely expected that Democratic presidential contenders Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders would uphold Obama’s climate change agenda, which has drawn criticism from both sides of the aisle. Environmentalists argue the policies are too weak to drive real change in emissions, while opponents say the rules encroach on state rights and private sector freedoms. The leading GOP contenders, Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz, fall in the second camp. Both have spoken critically of wind and solar power, and both have staunchly denied that human activity is contributing to global warming.

Minnesota: Bernie’s super-delegate sweet spot (Politico 4/9/16)

Congressman Rick Nolan threw his support behind Bernie Sanders on Saturday, making him the third member of Minnesota’s congressional delegation to back the Vermont senator’s presidential campaign. Nolan, a super-delegate, said he would vote for Sanders at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia this summer. He joins two other Minnesota super-delegates, Congressmen Keith Ellison and Collin Peterson, in supporting Sanders. No other state has more than one Democratic congressman in the Sanders camp.

John Kasich and Ted Cruz Hunt for Votes in Upstate New York (New York Times 4/10/16)

Gov. John Kasich’s first visit to upstate New York last week was moved twice to accommodate a crowd larger than anticipated. But that positive bit of news for Mr. Kasich, reported in The Post-Standard of Syracuse on Friday, was upstaged by a headline blaring “Trump to Visit,” announcing an event more than a week away. For Mr. Kasich, the Ohio governor, and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, that is how every day in the run-up to the New York primary on April 19 seems to be playing out — with excruciating reminders that on Donald J. Trump’s home turf, they will forever grasp for an edge that appears to recede.


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